As Part III of my “Early Round Selections” series, I’m going to compare the “fragility” (how likely one is to get injured) of the running back and wide receiver positions. Most believe that running backs are more likely to get injured because of their volume of touches, however I have yet to see any studies that actually compare it.
In case you haven’t caught up on the previous parts of this series, I suggest you do that now:
Part I: A Tip on Early Round Selections
To start, I found preseason projections from Football Guys for the last three seasons. Thus, the method for choosing which players are included in the study is completely unbiased. Three years should be enough data to draw a strong conclusion while examining “today’s” NFL. If we move too far back then I believe it’s likely we’ll see more injuries to running backs, as 300+ carry “workhorses” were more of a commonality.
I used the top 30 running backs and wide receivers from the projections to compare their games played. Obviously this isn’t an exact science as players miss games due to suspensions and many other reasons, however, these extenuating circumstances occur on both sides and shouldn’t reduce the validity of this study.
Games Played From 2011-2013
In 2011, a top 30 running back missed a game more per season than a top 30 receiver. So far, our theory stands strong. 2012 proved to be a year of health, as both running backs and wide receivers played in more games than the previous season. Despite running backs appearing, on average, in almost a whole game more in 2012, wide receivers were still less fragile. For the third straight season we see the same result. Before we draw our conclusions, let’s combine all of our data to find one average for each position.
Three Year Average
Our three-year average tells us that a top 30 running back is likely to miss 0.86 more games per season than a top 30 wide receiver. While this isn’t earth-shattering news, it provides us with evidence that running backs are more likely to get injured than wide receivers.
Considering wide receivers are scoring more points than running backs, come at a cheaper price, and are less likely to get injured, I think it’s a very good idea to take wide receivers early. This is the best way to give your fantasy football team a weekly advantage.