We’ve reached the first milestone of the 2016 season – the first release of reliable Average Draft Position from MyFantasyLeague. ADP is valuable because we can compare how others are valuing players. In turn, this gives us the opportunity to analyze who is over and undervalued.
Obviously it’s still very early and while the draft and free agency will change our perceptions of many situations, we can still make early observations. Below are some wide receiver values that I found interesting in my first look at MFL’s 2015 ADP.
Brandin Cooks, ADP: 25.3
While it’s difficult to point out players that Brandin Cooks should be selected in front of, it’s hard to argue that he’s not a value. Despite a disappointing start to the season, Cooks finished as WR14. Cooks is currently being selected as WR16.
If you average Cooks’ last twelve games, he averaged 17.53 fantasy points per game. That would’ve landed him at WR8 in per game scoring in 2015.
To add fuel to the first, Cooks turns just 23 in September. To put that in perspective, he is almost two full years younger than David Johnson. This is important because Cooks joins a short list of 22-year-old wide receivers with at least 80 receptions, 1,100 receiving yards, and nine touchdowns. The other players on this list are Larry Fitzgerald, Odell Beckham, Josh Gordon, Randy Moss, and Allen Robinson.
Allen Hurns, ADP: 67.4
With Allen Robinson tearing the roof off the league, Allen Hurns had a surprisingly effective season. Hurns was one of just nine wide receivers with at least 1,000 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns. After finishing last season as WR19, Hurns is currently being drafted as WR35.
While volume was an issue, with just 105 targets, Hurns was extremely efficient with his targets. Averaging 9.82 yards per target, the Jaguars would be wise to target Hurns more frequently in 2016.
Stefon Diggs, ADP: 82
Despite being on a Vikings’ team that attempted the fewest passes in the league, Stefon Diggs had a really promising rookie year. Here’s a list of 21 and 22-year-old rookies who had at least 50 receptions, 700 receiving yards, and four touchdowns.
Currently being drafted as WR41, Diggs finished his rookie season as WR47. If you remove the first three weeks, games that he wasn’t targeted, he jumps to WR32.
With Adrian Peterson entering his age 31 season, the Vikings would be wise to put more on Teddy Bridgewater’s plate. This would mean more targets for the Vikings’ top wide receiver.