To predict player productivity, age is an extremely important variable. While there are outliers who can produce at impressively old ages, most players at the same position tend to have similar career arcs. A player’s age can help us make educated predictions as to whether the player will improve, stay steady or decline in the following season. In this article, we’ll determine the peak age for an NFL wide receiver.

Defining A Peak Season

To start this study, we must define a peak season for an NFL wide receiver. Our peak season will be defined as a wide receiver who finished with at least 225 PPR fantasy points since 2000, which gives us a sample size of 308 seasons. The list below includes all individual wide receiver seasons to meet the criteria and was generated by Pro-Football-Reference.com:

PlayerYearAgeTmGPPRRecYdsTD
Antonio Brown201527PIT16388.2136183410
Antonio Brown201426PIT16386.9129169813
Randy Moss*200730NWE16385.398149323
Marvin Harrison*200230IND16384.2143172211
Randy Moss*200326MIN16378111163217
Julio Jones201526ATL16369.113618718
Calvin Johnson201126DET16361.296168116
Torry Holt200327STL16359.1117169612
Marvin Harrison*200129IND16351.7109152415
Calvin Johnson201227DET16342.412219645
Demaryius Thomas201427DEN16340.9111161911
Steve Smith200526CAR16339.8103156312
Brandon Marshall201531NYJ16339.2109150214
Hines Ward200226PIT16339.1112132912
Wes Welker201130NWE16335.912215699
Brandon Marshall201228CHI16334.6118150811
Tyreek Hill201824KAN1633487147912
DeAndre Hopkins201826HOU16333.5115157211
Terrell Owens*200128SFO16332.393141216
DeAndre Hopkins201523HOU16331.1111152111
Muhsin Muhammad200431CAR1633193140516
Davante Adams201826GNB15329.6111138613
Jordy Nelson201429GNB16327.998151913
Marvin Harrison*200028IND16327.3102141314
Julio Jones201829ATL16325.911316778
Rod Smith200030DEN16324.110016028
Antonio Brown201830PIT15323.7104129715
Terrell Owens*200027SFO14323.297145113
Andre Johnson200827HOU16322.511515758
Terrell Owens*200229SFO14321.9100130013
Odell Beckham201523NYG15319.396145013
Demaryius Thomas201326DEN1631992143014
Roddy White201029ATL16318.2115138910
Rod Smith200131DEN15318113134311
Dez Bryant201426DAL1631688132016
Michael Thomas201825NOR16315.512514059
Reggie Wayne200729IND16315.4104151010
Antonio Brown201325PIT16314.911014998
Andre Johnson200928HOU16314.910115699
Josh Gordon201322CLE14314.48716469
Randy Moss*200023MIN16313.277143715
Larry Fitzgerald200825ARI16311.196143112
Antonio Brown201729PIT14310.310115339
DeAndre Hopkins201725HOU15309.896137813
David Boston200123ARI16309.39815988
Larry Fitzgerald200522ARI16308103140910
Antonio Brown201628PIT15307.3106128412
Adam Thielen201828MIN16307.311313739
Terrell Owens*200734DAL1530781135515
A.J. Green201325CIN16306.698142611
Brandon Marshall201329CHI16305.5100129512
Braylon Edwards200724CLE16304.980128916
Jordy Nelson201631GNB16304.797125714
Mike Evans201623TAM16304.196132112
Allen Robinson201522JAX1630480140014
Marvin Harrison*200634IND16303.695136612
Jimmy Graham201327NOR16303.586121516
Calvin Johnson201328DET14303.284149212
Joe Horn200432NOR16301.994139911
Emmanuel Sanders201427DEN16301.810114049
Larry Fitzgerald200724ARI15300.9100140910
A.J. Green201224CIN16299.897135011
T.J. Houshmandzadeh200730CIN16299.7112114312
Dez Bryant201224DAL16299.792138212
Javon Walker200426GNB16299.289138212
Chad Johnson200527CIN16297.59714329
Julio Jones201425ATL15297.410415936
Jimmy Smith200132JAX1629711213738
JuJu Smith-Schuster201822PIT16296.911114267
Odell Beckham201624NYG16296.6101136710
Andre Johnson201231HOU16295.811215984
Odell Beckham201422NYG1229591130512
Randall Cobb201424GNB16293.491128712
Dez Bryant201325DAL16292.493123313
Randy Moss*200225MIN16292.310613477
Demaryius Thomas201225DEN16291.494143410
Torry Holt200428STL16291.294137210
Anquan Boldin200525ARI14290.710214027
Eric Moulds200229BUF16289.9100129210
Victor Cruz201125NYG16289.98215369
Chad Johnson200729CIN16289.79314408
Randy Moss*200932NWE16289.483126413
Wes Welker201231NWE16289.411813546
Torry Holt200529STL14289.310213319
Isaac Bruce200028STL16289.28714719
Ed McCaffrey200032DEN16288.710113179
Anquan Boldin200323ARI16288.710113778
Marvin Harrison*200432IND16287.386111315
Brandon Lloyd201029DEN1628677144811
Santana Moss200526WAS162868414839
Chad Johnson200325CIN16285.590135510
Wes Welker200928NWE14285.412313484
Calvin Johnson200823DET1628578133112
Reggie Wayne200931IND16284.4100126410
Mike Evans201825TAM16284.48615248
Jordy Nelson201126GNB16284.368126315
Larry Fitzgerald200926ARI16284.297109213
Marques Colston200724NOR16284.298120211
Alshon Jeffery201323CHI16283.68914217
Terrell Owens*200633DAL1628385118013
Reggie Wayne201032IND16282.511113556
Brandon Marshall200723DEN16282.210213257
Torry Holt200024STL16282.28216356
Derrick Alexander200029KAN16281.678139110
Marvin Harrison*200331IND15281.594127210
Wes Welker200726NWE16280.911211758
Terrell Owens*200431PHI14280.577120014
Larry Fitzgerald201532ARI16280.510912159
Chad Johnson200426CIN16280.39512749
Eric Decker201326DEN16279.887128811
Andre Johnson201332HOU16279.710914075
Miles Austin200925DAL16278.881132011
Dwayne Bowe201026KAN16278.672116215
Keenan Allen201725LAC16278.210213936
Roddy White201130ATL16277.610012968
Pierre Garcon201327WAS16277.511313465
Hines Ward200327PIT16277.495116310
Cris Carter*200035MIN16277.49612749
Joe Horn200028NOR162779413408
Brandon Marshall200925DEN15276.9101112010
Drew Bennett200426TEN16276.980124711
Jeremy Maclin201426PHI16276.885131810
Jarvis Landry201523MIA16275.411011574
Greg Jennings201027GNB16274.476126512
Derrick Mason200329TEN16274.49513038
T.Y. Hilton201627IND16273.89114486
A.J. Green201527CIN16273.786129710
Reggie Wayne200628IND162738613109
Percy Harvin201123MIN16272.2879676
Joey Galloway200534TAM16272.183128710
Troy Brown200130NWE1627210111995
Peerless Price200226BUF16271.99412529
Torry Holt200630STL16271.893118810
Tim Brown*200135OAK16271.49111659
Donald Driver200631GNB16271.19212958
Steve Smith200924NYG1627110712207
Randy Moss*200124MIN16270.382123310
Reggie Wayne200426IND16269.677121012
Eric Decker201225DEN16269.485106413
DeSean Jackson201327PHI16269.48213329
Roddy White201231ATL16269.19213517
Larry Fitzgerald201128ARI16269.18014118
Chris Chambers200527MIA1626982111811
Reggie Wayne201234IND1626910613555
Doug Baldwin201527SEA16268.978106914
Marvin Harrison*200533IND15268.682114612
Roddy White200827ATL16268.68813827
Chad Johnson200628CIN16268.38713697
Steve Smith201132CAR162687913947
Demaryius Thomas201528DEN16267.410513046
Roddy White200928ATL16266.585115311
Stefon Diggs201825MIN15266.310210219
Calvin Johnson201025DET15266.277112012
Brandon Marshall200824DEN15266.110412656
Robert Woods201826LAR16265.68612196
Anquan Boldin200828ARI12265.589103811
Greg Jennings200825GNB16265.28012929
Amani Toomer200228NYG16264.58213438
Jordy Nelson201328GNB16264.48513148
Joe Horn200129NOR16263.98312659
Joe Horn200230NOR16263.48813127
DeSean Jackson200923PHI15263.36211569
Sidney Rice200923MIN16262.28313128
Julio Jones201223ATL16261.879119810
Alshon Jeffery201424CHI16261.685113310
Larry Fitzgerald201734ARI16261.410911566
Calvin Johnson201530DET16261.48812149
Marty Booker200125CHI16261.310010718
Donald Driver200429GNB16261.28412089
Vincent Jackson201229TAM16260.47213848
Jimmy Smith200031JAX15260.39112138
Keenan Allen201826LAC16260.19711966
Steve Smith200829CAR14260.17814216
Jarvis Landry201725MIA162601129879
Julio Jones201627ATL14259.98314096
Steve Smith200627CAR14259.78311668
Torry Holt200125STL16259.38113637
Lee Evans200625BUF16259.28212928
Golden Tate201426DET16259.19913314
Eric Moulds200027BUF162599413265
Michael Thomas201724NOR16258.510412455
T.Y. Hilton201425IND15258.58213457
Marty Booker200226CHI16257.79711896
Muhsin Muhammad200027CAR16257.510211836
Jerry Rice*200240OAK16257.19212117
Andre Johnson201029HOU13256.68612168
Tim Brown*200034OAK1625676112811
Torry Holt200731STL16255.99311897
Michael Thomas201623NOR15255.79211379
Victor Cruz201226NYG16255.286109210
Roy Williams200625DET16255.28213107
Derrick Mason200430TEN16254.59611687
Plaxico Burress200225PIT16254.57813257
Marques Colston201229NOR16254.483115410
Isaac Bruce200432STL16254.28912926
Doug Baldwin201628SEA16253.69411287
Brandin Cooks201522NOR16253.68411389
Eric Decker201528NYJ15252.780102712
T.J. Houshmandzadeh200629CIN14252.79010819
Antonio Bryant200827TAM162528312487
Julio Jones201728ATL16251.98814443
Julian Edelman201327NWE16251.710510566
Laveranues Coles200225NYJ16251.38912645
Santana Moss200324NYJ16251.274110510
Steve Smith200324CAR16251.28811107
Jerry Rice*200139OAK16250.98311399
Darrell Jackson200426SEA16250.98711997
Michael Crabtree201225SFO16250.38511059
Hakeem Nicks201022NYG13250.279105211
Wes Welker200827NWE16250.111111653
Mike Wallace201024PIT16249.660125710
Keenan McCardell200333TAM16249.48411748
Steve Johnson201024BUF16249.382107310
Andre Johnson200625HOU16249.110311475
Derrick Mason200127TEN15247.87311289
Kevin Johnson200125CLE16247.78410979
Hines Ward200933PIT16247.79511676
Torry Holt200226STL162479113024
Davante Adams201624GNB16246.77599712
Brandin Cooks201623NOR16246.37811738
Anquan Boldin201333SFO162468511797
Tyreek Hill201723KAN15245.27511837
Mike Evans201421TAM15245.168105112
Mike Wallace201125PIT162457211938
Bobby Engram200734SEA16244.79411476
Keenan McCardell200030JAX16244.79412075
Plaxico Burress200730NYG16244.570102512
Amani Toomer200026NYG16244.57810947
Michael Clayton200422TAM16244.38011937
Terrell Owens*200330SFO152448011029
Larry Fitzgerald201633ARI16243.810710236
Javon Walker200628DEN16243.76910848
Jeremy Maclin201527KAN15243.28710888
Brandin Cooks201825LAR16243.28012045
Mike Furrey200629DET16242.69810866
Vincent Jackson201330TAM16242.47812247
Marques Colston201128NOR14242.38011438
Laveranues Coles200326WAS16242.38212046
Keenan McCardell200131JAX162429311106
Derrick Mason200733BAL16241.710310875
Larry Fitzgerald201027ARI16241.79011376
Randall Cobb201222GNB15240.6809548
Santana Moss201031WAS16239.99311156
Vincent Jackson200926SDG15239.86811679
Brandon Marshall201127MIA16239.78112146
Adam Thielen201727MIN16239.79112764
Plaxico Burress200528NYG16239.47612147
Donald Driver200530GNB16239.48612215
Michael Crabtree201629OAK16239.38910038
Roddy White200726ATL162398312026
T.Y. Hilton201829IND142397612706
Rod Smith200434DEN16238.77911447
Keyshawn Johnson200129TAM15238.610612661
Laveranues Coles200629NYJ16238.29110986
Koren Robinson200222SEA16237.67812405
Terrell Owens*200835DAL16237.569105210
Joe Horn200331NOR15237.47897310
Donald Driver200227GNB16237.47010649
Hakeem Nicks201123NYG15237.27611927
Curtis Conway200130SDG16237.17111256
Larry Fitzgerald201330ARI16236.28295410
Steve Smith200728CAR15235.88710027
Randy Moss*200831NWE16235.869100811
Brandon Stokley200428IND16235.768107710
Darrell Jackson200325SEA16235.76811379
Nate Burleson200423MIN16235.56810069
Reggie Wayne200830IND16234.58211456
Santonio Holmes200925PIT16234.47912485
Chad Johnson200931CIN16233.97210479
Hines Ward200529PIT15233.56997511
Amari Cooper201622OAK16232.38311535
Rod Smith200535DEN16232.28511056
Marques Colston200926NOR162327010749
Eddie Royal200822DEN15231.9919805
Jarvis Landry201624MIA16231.39411364
Michael Crabtree201528OAK16231.2859229
DeAndre Hopkins201422HOU162317612106
Jordan Matthews201523PHI16230.7859978
Miles Austin201026DAL16230.46910417
Andre Johnson200423HOU16230.47911426
Odell Beckham201826NYG12230.37710526
Isaac Bruce200230STL16230.37910757
Julian Edelman201630NWE16230.39811063
Dwayne Bowe200824KAN16230.28610227
Anquan Boldin200626ARI16230.18312034
Jeremy Maclin201022PHI162307096410
Lance Moore200825NOR16229.87992810
Vincent Jackson201128SDG16229.76011069
David Boston200022ARI16229.57111567
Chris Chambers200325MIA16229.36496311
Julian Edelman201428NWE14228.6929724
Marques Colston201027NOR15228.48410237
Santana Moss200829WAS16228.17910446
Dwayne Bowe201127KAN16228.18111595
T.J. Houshmandzadeh200528CIN14227.8789567
Hines Ward200832PIT16227.78110437
Mike Williams201023TAM16227.46596411
Jimmy Smith200435JAX16227.27411726
Darrell Jackson200123SEA162277010818
Jimmy Smith200233JAX16226.98010277
A.J. Green201729CIN16226.87510788
Calvin Johnson201429DET13226.77110778
Hines Ward200125PIT16226.69410034
James Jones201228GNB16226.46478414
Demaryius Thomas201629DEN16226.39010835
Kelvin Benjamin201423CAR16225.87310089
Allen Hurns201524JAX15225.164103110
Marvin Jones201727DET16225.16111019

The average age for this group is 27.32 years old. Below is a distribution graph of the ages of the peak seasons.

5ppdev.com/web/apex/public


The youngest player to accomplish a peak season was 21 – Mike Evans in 2016. Most would call Jerry Rice the greatest of all time and he didn’t disappoint at the end of his career – as the only player to meet the criteria over the age of 35. Astonishingly, Rice accomplished the feat of a peak season at 39 and 40 years old but would have also met the criteria at 32, 33, 34, and 36 had we included seasons prior to 2000. Rice falls directly in the anomaly category – it’s unfair to expect the same production from other wide receivers.

The peak lands in the range of ages 23 to 30, as 77.9 percent of the individual seasons fall within this range. A more magnified peak is in the 25 to 29 range, where 55.8 percent of the seasons reside.

There is a steady decline that takes place after the age 29 season and continues with each passing year. Just 7.5 percent of the peak seasons happen after the age 32 season, with just 2.3 percent of the seasons taking place after age 34.

Let’s see if the peak or drop-off changes if we raise the floor for a peak season.

Re-Defining A Peak Season

If we raise the minimum for a peak season to 258 PPR fantasy points then the sample size drops to 182 players. It’s still a big enough sample size to draw actionable conclusions.

The re-defined peak includes the players listed below:

PlayerYearAgeTmGPPRRecYdsTD
Antonio Brown201527PIT16388.2136183410
Antonio Brown201426PIT16386.9129169813
Randy Moss*200730NWE16385.398149323
Marvin Harrison*200230IND16384.2143172211
Randy Moss*200326MIN16378111163217
Julio Jones201526ATL16369.113618718
Calvin Johnson201126DET16361.296168116
Torry Holt200327STL16359.1117169612
Marvin Harrison*200129IND16351.7109152415
Calvin Johnson201227DET16342.412219645
Demaryius Thomas201427DEN16340.9111161911
Steve Smith200526CAR16339.8103156312
Brandon Marshall201531NYJ16339.2109150214
Hines Ward200226PIT16339.1112132912
Wes Welker201130NWE16335.912215699
Brandon Marshall201228CHI16334.6118150811
Tyreek Hill201824KAN1633487147912
DeAndre Hopkins201826HOU16333.5115157211
Terrell Owens*200128SFO16332.393141216
DeAndre Hopkins201523HOU16331.1111152111
Muhsin Muhammad200431CAR1633193140516
Davante Adams201826GNB15329.6111138613
Jordy Nelson201429GNB16327.998151913
Marvin Harrison*200028IND16327.3102141314
Julio Jones201829ATL16325.911316778
Rod Smith200030DEN16324.110016028
Antonio Brown201830PIT15323.7104129715
Terrell Owens*200027SFO14323.297145113
Andre Johnson200827HOU16322.511515758
Terrell Owens*200229SFO14321.9100130013
Odell Beckham201523NYG15319.396145013
Demaryius Thomas201326DEN1631992143014
Roddy White201029ATL16318.2115138910
Rod Smith200131DEN15318113134311
Dez Bryant201426DAL1631688132016
Michael Thomas201825NOR16315.512514059
Reggie Wayne200729IND16315.4104151010
Antonio Brown201325PIT16314.911014998
Andre Johnson200928HOU16314.910115699
Josh Gordon201322CLE14314.48716469
Randy Moss*200023MIN16313.277143715
Larry Fitzgerald200825ARI16311.196143112
Antonio Brown201729PIT14310.310115339
DeAndre Hopkins201725HOU15309.896137813
David Boston200123ARI16309.39815988
Larry Fitzgerald200522ARI16308103140910
Antonio Brown201628PIT15307.3106128412
Adam Thielen201828MIN16307.311313739
Terrell Owens*200734DAL1530781135515
A.J. Green201325CIN16306.698142611
Brandon Marshall201329CHI16305.5100129512
Braylon Edwards200724CLE16304.980128916
Jordy Nelson201631GNB16304.797125714
Mike Evans201623TAM16304.196132112
Allen Robinson201522JAX1630480140014
Marvin Harrison*200634IND16303.695136612
Jimmy Graham201327NOR16303.586121516
Calvin Johnson201328DET14303.284149212
Joe Horn200432NOR16301.994139911
Emmanuel Sanders201427DEN16301.810114049
Larry Fitzgerald200724ARI15300.9100140910
A.J. Green201224CIN16299.897135011
T.J. Houshmandzadeh200730CIN16299.7112114312
Dez Bryant201224DAL16299.792138212
Javon Walker200426GNB16299.289138212
Chad Johnson200527CIN16297.59714329
Julio Jones201425ATL15297.410415936
Jimmy Smith200132JAX1629711213738
JuJu Smith-Schuster201822PIT16296.911114267
Odell Beckham201624NYG16296.6101136710
Andre Johnson201231HOU16295.811215984
Odell Beckham201422NYG1229591130512
Randall Cobb201424GNB16293.491128712
Dez Bryant201325DAL16292.493123313
Randy Moss*200225MIN16292.310613477
Demaryius Thomas201225DEN16291.494143410
Torry Holt200428STL16291.294137210
Anquan Boldin200525ARI14290.710214027
Eric Moulds200229BUF16289.9100129210
Victor Cruz201125NYG16289.98215369
Chad Johnson200729CIN16289.79314408
Randy Moss*200932NWE16289.483126413
Wes Welker201231NWE16289.411813546
Torry Holt200529STL14289.310213319
Isaac Bruce200028STL16289.28714719
Ed McCaffrey200032DEN16288.710113179
Anquan Boldin200323ARI16288.710113778
Marvin Harrison*200432IND16287.386111315
Brandon Lloyd201029DEN1628677144811
Santana Moss200526WAS162868414839
Chad Johnson200325CIN16285.590135510
Wes Welker200928NWE14285.412313484
Calvin Johnson200823DET1628578133112
Reggie Wayne200931IND16284.4100126410
Mike Evans201825TAM16284.48615248
Jordy Nelson201126GNB16284.368126315
Larry Fitzgerald200926ARI16284.297109213
Marques Colston200724NOR16284.298120211
Alshon Jeffery201323CHI16283.68914217
Terrell Owens*200633DAL1628385118013
Reggie Wayne201032IND16282.511113556
Brandon Marshall200723DEN16282.210213257
Torry Holt200024STL16282.28216356
Derrick Alexander200029KAN16281.678139110
Marvin Harrison*200331IND15281.594127210
Wes Welker200726NWE16280.911211758
Terrell Owens*200431PHI14280.577120014
Larry Fitzgerald201532ARI16280.510912159
Chad Johnson200426CIN16280.39512749
Eric Decker201326DEN16279.887128811
Andre Johnson201332HOU16279.710914075
Miles Austin200925DAL16278.881132011
Dwayne Bowe201026KAN16278.672116215
Keenan Allen201725LAC16278.210213936
Roddy White201130ATL16277.610012968
Pierre Garcon201327WAS16277.511313465
Hines Ward200327PIT16277.495116310
Cris Carter*200035MIN16277.49612749
Joe Horn200028NOR162779413408
Brandon Marshall200925DEN15276.9101112010
Drew Bennett200426TEN16276.980124711
Jeremy Maclin201426PHI16276.885131810
Jarvis Landry201523MIA16275.411011574
Greg Jennings201027GNB16274.476126512
Derrick Mason200329TEN16274.49513038
T.Y. Hilton201627IND16273.89114486
A.J. Green201527CIN16273.786129710
Reggie Wayne200628IND162738613109
Percy Harvin201123MIN16272.2879676
Joey Galloway200534TAM16272.183128710
Troy Brown200130NWE1627210111995
Peerless Price200226BUF16271.99412529
Torry Holt200630STL16271.893118810
Tim Brown*200135OAK16271.49111659
Donald Driver200631GNB16271.19212958
Steve Smith200924NYG1627110712207
Randy Moss*200124MIN16270.382123310
Reggie Wayne200426IND16269.677121012
Eric Decker201225DEN16269.485106413
DeSean Jackson201327PHI16269.48213329
Roddy White201231ATL16269.19213517
Larry Fitzgerald201128ARI16269.18014118
Chris Chambers200527MIA1626982111811
Reggie Wayne201234IND1626910613555
Doug Baldwin201527SEA16268.978106914
Marvin Harrison*200533IND15268.682114612
Roddy White200827ATL16268.68813827
Chad Johnson200628CIN16268.38713697
Steve Smith201132CAR162687913947
Demaryius Thomas201528DEN16267.410513046
Roddy White200928ATL16266.585115311
Stefon Diggs201825MIN15266.310210219
Calvin Johnson201025DET15266.277112012
Brandon Marshall200824DEN15266.110412656
Robert Woods201826LAR16265.68612196
Anquan Boldin200828ARI12265.589103811
Greg Jennings200825GNB16265.28012929
Amani Toomer200228NYG16264.58213438
Jordy Nelson201328GNB16264.48513148
Joe Horn200129NOR16263.98312659
Joe Horn200230NOR16263.48813127
DeSean Jackson200923PHI15263.36211569
Sidney Rice200923MIN16262.28313128
Julio Jones201223ATL16261.879119810
Alshon Jeffery201424CHI16261.685113310
Larry Fitzgerald201734ARI16261.410911566
Calvin Johnson201530DET16261.48812149
Marty Booker200125CHI16261.310010718
Donald Driver200429GNB16261.28412089
Vincent Jackson201229TAM16260.47213848
Jimmy Smith200031JAX15260.39112138
Keenan Allen201826LAC16260.19711966
Steve Smith200829CAR14260.17814216
Jarvis Landry201725MIA162601129879
Julio Jones201627ATL14259.98314096
Steve Smith200627CAR14259.78311668
Torry Holt200125STL16259.38113637
Lee Evans200625BUF16259.28212928
Golden Tate201426DET16259.19913314
Eric Moulds200027BUF162599413265
Michael Thomas201724NOR16258.510412455
T.Y. Hilton201425IND15258.58213457

The average age ever so slightly drops by 0.07 years. Below is a distribution graph of the seasons that fit the new peak requirements.

5ppdev.com/web/apex/public


With the higher floor, no player over 35 has accomplished a peak season. The former peak from ages 23 to 30, jumps to include an incredible 80.8 percent of the seasons. 59.34 percent fall within the 25 to 29 age range.

What can we learn from re-defining the peak? If we’re looking for higher-end seasons, it’s even more likely that the player will fall within the peak age range.

What Does This Mean For The 2019 Season?

Of the 15 players to score at least 225 PPR fantasy points last season, only Antonio Brown was over the age of 29. Brown is heading into his age 31 season and will likely be playing with a new quarterback. From an efficiency standpoint, Brown was less productive last season and it’s likely that his decline continues in 2019.

A.J. Green will also be 31 years old next season. His efficiency did not drop in his age 30 season, but he played fewer than 10 games for the first time in his career. Injuries and decreased production are both concerns heading into 2019.

Julio Jones and T.Y. Hilton are entering their age 30 seasons. Both are still likely to see a heavy target share but the decline is likely to come in the next couple seasons. For the right price, both could be worth dealing in dynasty leagues.

There is nothing to worry about with DeAndre Hopkins, Davante Adams, Keenan Allen, Odell Beckham Jr., and Robert Woods. All will be 27 in 2019 and are squarely in their primes.

The same can be said for young stars Michael Thomas (will be 26 next season), Mike Evans (26), Stefon Diggs (26), Brandin Cooks (26), Tyreek Hill (25), and JuJu Smith-Schuster (23).

Julian Edelman was effective last season in his age 32 season. It appears that slot receivers are able to fight off father time a bit longer than their outside brethren, but it is worth noting that Wes Welker’s production fell off in his age 33 season.

After tearing his Achilles to cut his 2018 season short, there should be concern for Emmanuel Sanders who will be 32 years old next season. Both his age and injury are extremely concerning individually, but combined leave him as a clear avoid.

Larry Fitzgerald will be 36 years old next season. Obviously, he’s one of those special players who can produce at an old football age – but the odds are not in his favor. Based on the dropoff for older wide receivers, I’d certainly avoid a 34-year-old Jordy Nelson.