Apex Insider Blog

With the increasing popularity of dynasty fantasy football leagues, player age has become an even more important variable. While some players can fend off father time for an impressive amount of time (we’re looking at you, Tom Brady), most players tend to have similar timelines. Age can help us make knowledgeable predictions as to when a player will improve or regress. Let’s explore the peak age for an NFL running back.

Estimated Reading Time: 5 minutes

TL;DR:

• This article explores at which ages NFL running backs have their most productive seasons.
• For RB1 (top-12) production, a shockingly high 91% of peak seasons are from players between the ages of 21-28.
• For truly elite (250+ PPR points) production, 66% of elite seasons are from players between the ages of 23-26, and 95.7% take place before a player turns 29.

Defining A Peak Season

To start this study, we must define a peak season for an NFL running back. Generally, the 12th-highest-scoring running back each season averages about 230 PPR fantasy points. In 2023, Alvin Kamara was the 12th-highest-scoring running back and finished 227 PPR fantasy points.

To examine at what age top running backs produce, we’ll include all running backs who finished with at least 230 PPR fantasy points. The list of 258 includes all individual running back seasons to meet the requirements since 2000 and was generated by Pro-Football-Reference.com.

The average age of this cohort is 25.51. Below is a distribution graph of the ages of the peak seasons:

The youngest players to accomplish a peak season were 21: Clinton Portis, Saquon Barkley, Maurice Jones-Drew, Ezekiel Elliott, Reggie Bush, and Jonathan Taylor. This season Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs joined the list. The oldest players to accomplish the feat were 32: Ricky Williams, Fred Jackson, and DeAngelo Williams. The peak is from ages 22 to 28, as an incredible 84.11 percent of the seasons fall within this range.

While 9.69 percent of the peak seasons have taken place at age 28, just 5.43 percent have taken place at age 29 – a noticeable drop-off. From there, just 4.26 percent of the seasons happen at age 30. Father time has a big impact, as no running back since 2000 has scored at least 230 PPR fantasy points at the age of 33 or older.

The age distribution of running backs confirms our previous studies that wide receivers have longer careers than running backs.

Redefining The Time-Period

Each year that I do this study, I wonder when to remove the oldest seasons. It appears that running backs are playing earlier than ever and having shorter careers than ever. Let’s analyze how running backs seasons from 2000-2009 compare with 2010-present. We’ll keep the threshold for scoring at a 230 PPR fantasy-point minimum.

First off, we see that running backs aren’t hitting the threshold as frequently. The average qualifiers per year has dropped from 12 in 2000-09 to 9.9 since. This is likely due to the usage rate of starting running backs dropping. Now NFL teams are more willing to rely on multiple running backs or specialists for the goal-line or passing downs.

The average age drops by 0.69, so running backs are certainly getting younger. In the past, running backs fell within the 21-28 range in 83.33 percent of seasons. Incredibly that number is now 90.58 percent – showing how hard it is to produce as a running back after turning 29. Starting in 2010, just 9.42 percent of the seasons take place at age 29 or older.

Filtering For The Elite

I suspect that the age discrepancy will grow if we filter for higher-end seasons. Let’s raise the floor of a peak season to 250 PPR fantasy points and compare the difference between before and after 2010.

Again, the difference in qualifiers is noticeable – 2.3 fewer running backs per season qualify. The average age drop increases by 1.01 years. While the 2000-2009 cohort remains the same in terms of the proportion of peak seasons, the 2010+ cohort increases to 95.74 percent of the peak seasons taking place before the age 29 season. That means, in 2000-2009 a running back age 29 or older was nearly four times more likely to account for a peak season! The league has gotten much younger.

The Elite Since 2010

Since it appears that the 2000’s data is irrelevant. Here are the 94 running back seasons since 2010 to score 250 or more PPR fantasy points.

The average age of this group is 24.87. Below is a distribution graph of the ages of the elite peak seasons:

The peak of 23 to 26 includes 65.96 percent of the individual seasons. As noted above, 95.74 percent of the seasons take place before a running back’s age 29 season. The two most common ages are 24 and 25 years old.

When searching for top-end production, a running back is more likely to produce in his prime (typically prior to turning 27). Owners should be looking to sell dynasty assets before they turn 26 years old to be ahead of the curve. This meshes with a previous conclusion that dynasty owners aren’t selling running backs early enough.