Vick. Tebow. Newton. Griffin III. These are just a few quarterbacks who electrified the NFL and fantasy football leagues early in their careers. What did they have in common? They used their legs to accumulate highlights as well as fantasy points. Quarterbacks often struggle to break through as passers their first year in the league, so let’s explore just how much rushing statistics can buoy a rookie quarterback who may be limited in the passing game. To do this, I looked at all the rookie (or sophomore in Vick’s and Tebow’s case) quarterbacks who have rushed for 250+ yards in a season since 2000 and dubbed them “mobile” rookie quarterbacks.
“Mobile” Rookie Quarterbacks Passing Stats
It is a common conception that rookie quarterbacks tend to struggle in the NFL- it is undoubtedly the hardest position to learn. Here are the passing statistics of quarterbacks who rushed for over 250 yards in their rookie year since 2000- there are only nine of them:
Passing Statistics Year Games Started Comp. % Pass Yds Pass TD Int Passer Rating Y/A Y/G Fantasy Finish Russell Wilson 2012 16 64% 3118 26 10 100 7.93 194.9 QB11 Andrew Luck 2012 16 54% 4374 23 18 76.5 6.98 273.4 QB8 Cam Newton 2011 16 60% 4051 21 17 84.5 7.84 253.2 QB3 Robert Griffin 2012 15 66% 3200 20 5 102.4 8.14 213.3 QB5 Geno Smith 2013 16 56% 3046 12 21 66.5 6.88 190.4 QB20 Vince Young 2006 13 52% 2199 12 13 66.7 6.16 146.6 QB9 David Carr 2002 16 52% 2592 9 15 62.8 5.84 162 QB24 Michael Vick* 2002 15 44% 785 2 3 62.7 6.95 98.1 QB3 Tim Tebow* 2011 11 47% 1729 12 6 72.9 6.4 123.5 QB19 Average 13.44 55% 2788.22 15.22 12 77.22 7.01 183.93 QB11
*Used sophomore statistics for larger sample size
Notice the disparity? They average severely mediocre numbers across the board. Even though they average 15 games per season, they can barely muster a passing touchdown per game while throwing nearly as many interceptions. That is an average of 160 fantasy points per 16 games- good enough for a QB27 finish in 2013. With a completion percentage under 55% and a passer rating a shade over 77, how exactly did over half of these players turn in a top-10 fantasy finish their rookie season? The answer: rushing statistics.
Rushing Stats of “Mobile” Rookie Quarterbacks
As all of the fantasy owners of these players can attest, rushing statistics can buoy even the poorest of passing performances. This data will help explain their high fantasy finishes despite mediocre passing stats:
Rushing Statistics Year GS Rush Att Rush Yds Y/A Rush TD Y/G Fantasy Finish Russell Wilson 2012 16 94 489 5.2 4 30.6 QB11 Andrew Luck 2012 16 62 255 4.11 5 15.9 QB8 Cam Newton 2011 16 126 706 5.6 14 44.1 QB3 Robert Griffin 2012 15 120 815 6.79 7 54.3 QB5 Geno Smith 2013 16 72 366 5.08 6 22.9 QB20 Vince Young 2006 13 83 552 6.65 7 36.8 QB9 David Carr 2002 16 59 282 4.78 3 17.6 QB24 Michael Vick* 2002 15 113 777 6.9 8 51.8 QB3 Tim Tebow* 2011 11 122 660 5.4 6 47.14 QB19 Average 14.89 94.56 544.67 5.61 6.67 35.68 QB11
*Used sophomore statistics for larger sample size
Incredible: with their rushing statistics alone, these quarterbacks rush for about the equivalent of RB50 in a PPR league (that goes up to top-40 in standard). Combine even just top-50 rushing stats with top-27 passing statistics, and you’ve got yourself a starting quarterback for the price of a double-digit round pick.
As those who rode RGIII’s and Cam Newton’s rookie seasons to fantasy glory, there is plenty of room to surpass those thresholds. Although we cannot count on such historic performances to be repeated often, even above average rushing totals can go a long way toward a quarterback’s fantasy value giving him a little bit of leeway in the passing statistics department.
Percentage of Fantasy Points Via Rushing
Just to cement the idea into your head, let’s take a look at what percentage of their fantasy points these “mobile” quarterbacks gained from rushing their rookie season:
Percentage of Fantasy Points Year From Passing From Rushing Russell Wilson 2012 74% 26% Andrew Luck 2012 81% 19% Cam Newton 2011 59% 41% Robert Griffin 2012 62% 38% Geno Smith 2013 66% 34% Vince Young 2006 55% 45% David Carr 2002 71% 29% Michael Vick* 2002 56% 44% Tim Tebow* 2011 49% 51% Average 64% 36%
*Used sophomore statistics for larger sample size
Again, the stats show you don’t have to be even an average passer to make a fantasy impact as long as those rushing statistics keep coming. While these numbers differ greatly from the Peyton Manning’s (0.7% of his 2013’s fantasy points came from rushing), Drew Brees’s (6%) and even Aaron Rodgers’ (never higher than 18% in his career), rookie quarterbacks come with a small fraction of the price tag.
In Conclusion: 2014 Implications
Rookie quarterbacks have proven time and time again they can support or even carry a fantasy team at a late-round price. This year, the most obvious candidate for this phenomenon is Johnny Manziel with Kyle Shanahan calling the shots on offense in Cleveland. Granted, he lost Josh Gordon which will drastically lower pass attempts- but this may not even matter. When RGIII registered his sensational QB5 finish, the Redskins finished 30th in pass attempts. Their coordinator? You guessed it: Shanahan.