Ahh, the majestic 100+ reception and the 10+ touchdown season- numbers sought after by every wide receiver in the NFL and fantasy football owner in North America. Just one extra digit seems to make things look a whole lot better, doesn’t it? After pondering what it took to rush for 20 touchdowns in a season, I set my sights on wide receivers and the mysteries behind 100+ reception and 10+ TD seasons. In arguably the most data-centric piece I’ve yet to author, I think you’ll find some interesting trends and conclusions.

First, I’ll share with you the data I compiled from the fantastic “Season Finder” on ProFootballReference.com. Here is every receiver from 2003-2013 who had 100+ receptions:

PlayerYearAgeHt ▾WtGRecYdsY/RTDY/G
Andre Johnson2013326'3"21916109140712.91587.9
Antonio Brown2013255'10"18016110149913.63893.7
Brandon Marshall2013296'4"22916100129512.951280.9
Julian Edelman2013276'0"19816105105610.06666
Pierre Garcon2013276'0"21016113134611.91584.1
Andre Johnson2012316'3"21916112159814.27499.9
Brandon Marshall2012286'4"22916118150812.781194.3
Calvin Johnson2012276'5"23916122196416.15122.8
Reggie Wayne2012346'0"19816106135512.78584.7
Wes Welker2012315'9"19016118135411.47684.6
Roddy White2011306'1"20116100129612.96881
Wes Welker2011305'9"19016122156912.86998.1
Reggie Wayne2010326'0"19816111135512.21684.7
Roddy White2010296'1"20116115138912.081086.8
Andre Johnson2009286'3"21916101156915.53998.1
Brandon Marshall2009256'4"22915101112011.091074.7
Reggie Wayne2009316'0"19816100126412.641079
Steve Smith2009246'0"19516107122011.4776.3
Wes Welker2009285'9"19014123134810.96496.3
Andre Johnson2008276'3"21916115157513.7898.4
Brandon Marshall2008246'4"22915104126512.16684.3
Wes Welker2008275'9"19016111116510.5372.8
Brandon Marshall2007236'4"22916102132512.99782.8
Derrick Mason2007335'10"19016103108710.55567.9
Larry Fitzgerald2007246'3"22515100140914.091093.9
Reggie Wayne2007296'0"19816104151014.521094.4
T.J. Houshmandzadeh2007306'1"19716112114310.211271.4
Wes Welker2007265'9"19016112117510.49873.4
Andre Johnson2006256'3"21916103114711.14571.7
Anquan Boldin2005256'1"21814102140213.757100.1
Larry Fitzgerald2005226'3"22516103140913.681088.1
Steve Smith2005265'9"18516103156315.171297.7
Torry Holt2005296'0"19014102133113.05995.1
Anquan Boldin2003236'1"21816101137713.63886.1
Randy Moss2003266'4"21516111163214.717102
Torry Holt2003276'0"19016117169614.512106

In total, 17 different players compiled 36 different 100+ reception seasons from 2003-2013. Now, we’ll take a look at every 10+ TD season from 2003-2013:

PlayerYearAgeHt ▾WtGRecYdsY/RTDY/G
Wes Welker2013325'9"190137377810.661059.8
Marvin Jones2013236'1"199165171213.961044.5
Jerricho Cotchery2013316'1"200164660213.091037.6
Dez Bryant2013256'2"2251693123313.261377.1
Demaryius Thomas2013266'3"2291692143015.541489.4
Eric Decker2013266'3"2061687128814.81180.5
Larry Fitzgerald2013306'3"225168295411.631059.6
A.J. Green2013256'4"2051698142614.551189.1
Brandon Marshall2013296'4"22916100129512.951280.9
Calvin Johnson2013286'5"2391484149217.7612106.6
Victor Cruz2012266'0"2041686109212.71068.3
James Jones2012286'1"208166478412.251449
Dez Bryant2012246'2"2251692138215.021286.4
Demaryius Thomas2012256'3"2291694143415.261089.6
Eric Decker2012256'3"2061685106412.521366.5
Brandon Marshall2012286'4"22916118150812.781194.3
A.J. Green2012246'4"2051697135013.921184.4
Julio Jones2012236'3"2201679119815.161074.9
Marques Colston2012296'4"2251683115413.91072.1
Laurent Robinson2011266'2"192145485815.891161.3
Jordy Nelson2011266'3"2151668126318.571578.9
Calvin Johnson2011266'5"2391696168117.5116105.1
Greg Jennings2010275'11"1951676126516.641279.1
Brandon Lloyd2010296'0"1921677144818.811190.5
Mike Wallace2010246'0"1801660125720.951078.6
Hakeem Nicks2010226'0"2101379105213.321180.9
Jeremy Maclin2010226'0"200167096413.771060.3
Roddy White2010296'1"20116115138912.081086.8
Dwayne Bowe2010266'2"2211672116216.141572.6
Steve Johnson2010246'2"2101682107313.091067.1
Mike Williams2010236'2"204166596414.831160.3
Calvin Johnson2010256'5"2391577112014.551274.7
Reggie Wayne2009316'0"19816100126412.641079
Roddy White2009286'1"2011685115313.561172.1
Miles Austin2009256'3"2151681132016.31182.5
Larry Fitzgerald2009266'3"2251697109211.261368.3
Randy Moss2009326'4"2151683126415.231379
Brandon Marshall2009256'4"22915101112011.091074.7
Lance Moore2008255'9"177167992811.751058
Anquan Boldin2008286'1"2181289103811.661186.5
Larry Fitzgerald2008256'3"2251696143114.911289.4
Terrell Owens2008356'3"2261669105215.251065.8
Randy Moss2008316'4"2151669100814.611163
Calvin Johnson2008236'5"2391678133117.061283.2
Greg Jennings2007245'11"195135392017.361270.8
Reggie Wayne2007296'0"19816104151014.521094.4
T.J. Houshmandzadeh2007306'1"19716112114310.211271.4
Larry Fitzgerald2007246'3"22515100140914.091093.9
Terrell Owens2007346'3"2261581135516.731590.3
Braylon Edwards2007246'3"2111680128916.111680.6
Randy Moss2007306'4"2151698149315.232393.3
Marques Colston2007246'4"2251698120212.271175.1
Reggie Williams2007246'4"225153862916.551041.9
Plaxico Burress2007306'5"2261670102514.641264.1
Marvin Harrison2006346'0"1751695136614.381285.4
Torry Holt2006306'0"1901693118812.771074.3
Darrell Jackson2006286'0"201136395615.171073.5
Terrell Owens2006336'3"2261685118013.881373.8
Plaxico Burress2006296'5"226156398815.681065.9
Joey Galloway2005345'11"1971683128715.511080.4
Chris Chambers2005275'11"2101682111813.631169.9
Steve Smith2005265'9"18516103156315.171297.7
Marvin Harrison2005336'0"1751582114613.981276.4
Hines Ward2005296'0"205156997514.131165
Larry Fitzgerald2005226'3"22516103140913.681088.1
Joe Jurevicius2005316'5"230165569412.621043.4
Brandon Stokley2004285'11"1971668107715.841067.3
Torry Holt2004286'0"1901694137214.61085.8
Reggie Wayne2004266'0"1981677121015.711275.6
Marvin Harrison2004326'0"1751686111312.941569.6
Joe Horn2004326'1"2061694139914.881187.4
Muhsin Muhammad2004316'2"2171693140515.111687.8
Javon Walker2004266'3"2201689138215.531286.4
Terrell Owens2004316'3"2261477120015.581485.7
Randy Moss2004276'4"215134976715.651359
Drew Bennett2004266'5"2061680124715.591177.9
Santana Moss2003245'10"1851674110514.931069.1
Chris Chambers2003255'11"210166496315.051160.2
Torry Holt2003276'0"19016117169614.512106
Marvin Harrison2003316'0"1751594127213.531084.8
Hines Ward2003276'0"2051695116312.241072.7
Chad Johnson2003256'1"1921690135515.061084.7
Joe Horn2003316'1"206157897312.471064.9
Randy Moss2003266'4"21516111163214.717102

50 different players compiled 84 different 10+ receiving touchdown seasons from 2003-2013. Now that the boring ol’ table data is out of the way, let’s delve into the good stuff: number-crunching and analysis.


But before we begin, a quick author’s note:
  • To reiterate: all of these statistics are from 2003-2013. 17 different players accounted for those 36 100+ catch seasons, and 50 different players accounted for the 84 10+ TD seasons during that timespan.
  • Unless otherwise noted, the percentages are out of 84 and 36 for the number of different 10+ TD and 100+ catch seasons (respectively), not out of the 50 and 17 different players who accomplished these feats from 2003-2013. In parentheses, I will give you the specific amount of unique players for each statistic I deem relevant. Let’s roll:


  • 47% of 100+ catch seasons (9/17 different players) were by players under 200 lbs. Smaller players are more likely to win underneath with a low aDOT (average depth of target), and have trouble winning jump balls downfield and in the end-zone.
  • Size matters for TDs: Only 27% of 10+ TD seasons (16/50 different players) were by players under 200lbs. For 11 out of those 16 sub-200lb players, it was their only time catching 10+ TDs in their careers. Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison (both under 200lbs) are the only reason that percentage isn’t much lower. As always, leave it to Peyton Manning to skew the data.


  • 61% of 100+ catch seasons (12/17 different players) were by receivers 6’1″ or under. Again, likely due to small players being more effective underneath on shorter, more frequent throws.
  • However, only 46% of 10+ TD seasons (26/50 different players) were by receivers 6’1″ or under. Of those 26 qualifying players, 17 of them (65%) were one-hit wonder 10+ TD receivers, never doing it before or since.
  • Of the 10+ TD seasons accomplished by receivers 6’3” or taller, only 21% were one-hit wonders. That means 6’3” or taller receivers are 220% more likely to have multiple 10+ TD seasons than 6’1” and under receivers.

Fantasy Scoring (PPR)

  • 94% of 100+ catch seasons have been top-12 PPR receivers in their respective years. The only two that weren’t (Derrick Mason and Julian Edelman) finished 14th.
  • A lesser (but still good) 76% of 10+ TD seasons were top 12. If a receiver catches 10+ TDs, he’ll probably be a WR1. If he has 100+ catches, he  almost certainly will.
  • 33% of 100+ catch seasons have resulted in 10+ TDs. On the other hand, only 14% of 10+ TD seasons result in 100+ catches.

Yardage and TD Frequency

  • 44% of 100+ catch seasons resulted in 7 TDs or less- likely due to the height and weight of many of these players. Ironically, the only time 100+ catch stud Wes Welker caught 10+ TDs was in 2013- on a mere 73 receptions.
  • On the bright side, high volume receivers make their fantasy money on catches and yards. Only 19% of 100+ catch guys had less than 1,200 yards, and none under 1,056.
  • However, a whopping 50% of 10+ TD guys were under 1,200 yards, and 21% under 1,000. Oddly enough, all of the first-time 10+ TD guys in 2013 (Wes Welker, Marvin Jones, and Jerricho Cotchery) fit into that 21%.

Year-to-Year Consistency

  • 36% of 10+ TD catch seasons (30/50 different players) were one-hit wonders- they never did it before or after in their career. Only Jones, Cotchery and Welker were first timers in 2013 (all decent candidates to join the one-hit wonder club). Notable recent one-hit wonders that have a very good chance of catching 10+ again are Julio Jones and Jordy Nelson. Both have the height, weight, and opportunity to do so.
  • Only 22% of 100+ catch seasons (8/17 different players) were one-hit wonders. Out of those eight, I’m going to mention four: Three of them are Pierre Garcon, Julian Edelman, and Antonio Brown- all of whom caught 100+ for the first time in 2013. The fourth is Calvin Johnson. Given that 78% of 100+ catch seasons are done by repeat offenders, odds are at least one of Brown, Edelman or Garcon catches 100+ again. Possibly just Brown, but it’s still worth mentioning. As far as Calvin goes, he’s such a stud in yards and TDs that you could argue 100+ catches is just icing on the cake.

Takeaways for 2014:

  • If you think a guy has a shot at 100+ catches, he’s likely worth a top-30 pick.
  • Don’t count on receivers under 6’2” or under 200 lbs. to repeat double-digit TD seasons. Keep that in mind when you want to draft Victor Cruz, Wes Welker, Jeremy Maclin or Mike Wallace.
  • Less than one fifth of 10+ TD seasons occurred when the player had under 1,000 receiving yards. Don’t go chasing guys who you think will have 10+ TDs without 1,000 yards. It’s unlikely to happen.
  • Don’t be scared of a high-volume receiver who won’t contend for the league lead in TDs. Nearly half don’t even reach 8, but 94% of 100+ catch guys have been WR1s.
  • If a receiver is big (6’3” or over) and he’s caught 10+ TD passes, there’s a very high probability he’ll do it again sometime in his career. This helps explain why only 20/50 different players caught 10+ TDs multiple times, but accounted for 64% of the 10+ TD seasons. Don’t be as scared of TD regression in big receivers.
  • Two-thirds of the time, WR1 seasons feature 100+ catches, 10+ TDs or both. If you draft a guy whom you don’t project has a shot at either of those, you’re getting only a 33% chance of him being a WR1 according to the trends of the past decade.
  • Here are the guys with an ADP in the top-72  who I don’t think have a great chance at 100+ catches or 10+ TDs: Vincent Jackson (he’s never done either, high aDOT, possibly limited targets), Victor Cruz (size), Wes Welker (limited targets, concussion history, size), Percy Harvin (limited targets), Cordarrelle Patterson (don’t even get me started), DeSean Jackson (limited targets, high aDOT, size), and T.Y. Hilton (limited targets, high aDOT, size). I actually like some of these guysbut I think that expecting WR1 upside out of any of them is a fool’s errand.