Apex Insider Blog

Considering we were able to find definitive conclusions by researching the Peak Age for Wide Receivers, it’s certainly worth checking if the same is true for running backs. Running backs are known to have a shorter lifespan but does that mean we can trust the best guys for three years or five years or somewhere in between? This research will help us determine the Peak Age for Running Backs.

Defining A Peak Season

Since we took the average of the WR1s of the 2013 season for the first Peak Age article, there’s no reason to deviate from that strategy here. The RB1s or top 12 running backs from 2013 are listed below:

The average numbers from a RB1 in PPR leagues this past season are posted above. To increase the number of our sample size, we’re going to add the yards and touchdowns together and include any running back that had 1,566 total yards, 52 receptions, and 11 total touchdowns.

Examining Historical Seasons

Since 1990, 43 seasons qualify as peak seasons under this criterion. They are listed below, sorted by rushing yards. This list was generated by Pro-Football-Reference.com:

The average age for this grouping is 25.65. About two years younger than the average of WR1s. The youngest player on this list is 21, with the oldest being 30. Here’s a look at the distribution:

While the peak isn’t as crystal clear as wide receivers, it looks like the running backs peak lasts from age 23-27. In fact, 72.1% of these historical seasons fall within that range. Let’s see what happens if we increase our sample size.

Re-Defining a Peak Season

Since the NFL has become extremely pass-heavy over recent years, the reception numbers for all positions are inflated. To increase our sample size, we’ll include all running backs that have 1,750 total yards and 12 touchdowns since 1990.

By lowering the threshold, we broadened our sample size to 59. The players are listed in a table below. This list was generated by Pro-Football-Reference.com:

The average from this group is 25.44 years old, 0.21 years younger than our previous grouping. Here’s a look at the distribution:

The peak on this distribution appears to be from 24-27. While 71.2% fall within the 23-27 range that we examined with the last grouping, 62.7% fall within 24-27. It’s also fair to assume that taking a risk on 30-year-old running backs is ill advised.

What does that mean for 2014?

Remember that touches are the biggest correlation for fantasy success for running backs and that players shouldn’t purely be drafted off of age. What this does teach us for is once we have a solidified star (Adrian Peterson, LeSean McCoy, Jamaal Charles, etc.); he is mostly likely to peak from 24-27. When is he likely to fall off? Could be as early as 28 or as late as 30.

This season we have Frank Gore, DeAngelo Williams, and Steven Jackson turning 31. Matt Forte, Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Reggie Bush and Chris Johnson turning 29. While we can’t make strong conclusions, this is something to keep an eye on. Especially for guys like Reggie Bush and Chris Johnson who rely on their speed to make plays.

Another fair question to ask: does this have an impact on who you select 1^st overall? LeSean McCoy’s 26 looks better than Jamaal Charles’ 28. Sadly the Darren Sproles trade has may have spoiled this.