Recently I found myself writing an article titled “Why Peyton Manning Isn’t Worthy of Your 1st Round Pick.” Before I was able to prove that you shouldn’t take Manning in the first round this season, I felt that I must assign a value to him for last season to see if his historic season truly made him worthy of a first round selection.
To find the value that each player provided last season, I first found a replacement average for each position using @FantasyDouche’s Value Based Drafting Revisited. If you’d like to learn more about how I created my projections or how you can create your own, I can help you with that.
Our unbiased metric to judge the true value of each player is Points Above Average or PAA. This number allows us to judge how many fantasy points each player is scoring compared to other players at his position.
Here’s the list I created to show the top 100 players last season:
Rank | Player | Points | PPG | PAA |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Charles, Jamaal KCC RB | 380 | 25.33 | 187.44 |
2 | Forte, Matt CHI RB | 339.3 | 21.21 | 146.74 |
3 | McCoy, LeSean PHI RB | 331.6 | 20.73 | 139.04 |
4 | Manning, Peyton DEN QB | 425.98 | 26.62 | 129.05 |
5 | Graham, Jimmy NOS TE | 303.5 | 18.97 | 125.89 |
6 | Thomas, Demaryius DEN WR | 319 | 19.94 | 120.36 |
7 | Brown, Antonio PIT WR | 314.9 | 19.68 | 116.26 |
8 | Gordon, Josh CLE WR | 314.4 | 22.46 | 115.76 |
9 | Green, A.J. CIN WR | 306.6 | 19.16 | 107.96 |
10 | Marshall, Brandon CHI WR | 305.5 | 19.09 | 106.86 |
11 | Johnson, Calvin DET WR | 304.2 | 21.73 | 105.56 |
12 | Moreno, Knowshon DEN RB | 296.6 | 18.54 | 104.04 |
13 | Bryant, Dez DAL WR | 293.4 | 18.34 | 94.76 |
14 | Jeffery, Alshon CHI WR | 284.6 | 17.79 | 85.96 |
15 | Lynch, Marshawn SEA RB | 276.3 | 17.27 | 83.74 |
16 | Decker, Eric DEN WR | 280.8 | 17.55 | 82.16 |
17 | Johnson, Andre HOU WR | 279.7 | 17.48 | 81.06 |
18 | Garcon, Pierre WAS WR | 278.5 | 17.41 | 79.86 |
19 | Brees, Drew NOS QB | 371.68 | 23.23 | 74.75 |
20 | Jackson, DeSean PHI WR | 269.4 | 16.84 | 70.76 |
21 | Murray, DeMarco DAL RB | 259.4 | 18.53 | 66.84 |
22 | Nelson, Jordy GBP WR | 264.4 | 16.53 | 65.76 |
23 | Edelman, Julian NEP WR | 251.7 | 15.73 | 53.06 |
24 | Lacy, Eddie GBP RB | 243.5 | 16.23 | 50.94 |
25 | Bush, Reggie DET RB | 243.2 | 17.37 | 50.64 |
26 | Johnson, Chris TEN RB | 242.2 | 15.14 | 49.64 |
27 | Boldin, Anquan SFO WR | 246 | 15.38 | 47.36 |
28 | Jackson, Vincent TBB WR | 242.4 | 15.15 | 43.76 |
29 | Peterson, Adrian MIN RB | 235.7 | 16.84 | 43.14 |
30 | Jackson, Fred BUF RB | 235.3 | 14.71 | 42.74 |
31 | Gonzalez, Tony ATL TE | 218.9 | 13.68 | 41.29 |
32 | Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR | 237.2 | 14.83 | 38.56 |
33 | Thomas, Julius DEN TE | 215.8 | 15.41 | 38.19 |
34 | Davis, Vernon SFO TE | 214 | 14.27 | 36.39 |
35 | Cameron, Jordan CLE TE | 213.7 | 14.25 | 36.09 |
36 | Woodhead, Danny SDC RB | 225.4 | 14.09 | 32.84 |
37 | Bernard, Giovani CIN RB | 223.9 | 13.99 | 31.34 |
38 | Witten, Jason DAL TE | 206.1 | 12.88 | 28.49 |
39 | Bell, Joique DET RB | 219.7 | 13.73 | 27.14 |
40 | Bell, Le'Veon PIT RB | 217.9 | 16.76 | 25.34 |
41 | Allen, Keenan SDC WR | 222.6 | 14.84 | 23.96 |
42 | Hilton, T.Y. IND WR | 220.9 | 13.81 | 22.26 |
43 | Thomas, Pierre NOS RB | 213.2 | 13.33 | 20.64 |
44 | Mathews, Ryan SDC RB | 211.4 | 13.21 | 18.84 |
45 | Wright, Kendall TEN WR | 213.9 | 13.37 | 15.26 |
46 | Newton, Cam CAR QB | 311.66 | 19.48 | 14.73 |
47 | Dalton, Andy CIN QB | 311.14 | 19.45 | 14.21 |
48 | Olsen, Greg CAR TE | 190.6 | 11.91 | 12.99 |
49 | Welker, Wes DEN WR | 210.8 | 16.22 | 12.16 |
50 | Clay, Charles MIA TE | 188.4 | 11.78 | 10.79 |
51 | Gates, Antonio SDC TE | 186.2 | 11.64 | 8.59 |
52 | Smith, Torrey BAL WR | 203.8 | 12.74 | 5.16 |
53 | Douglas, Harry ATL WR | 202.7 | 12.67 | 4.06 |
54 | Rivers, Philip SDC QB | 300.42 | 18.78 | 3.49 |
55 | Stafford, Matthew DET QB | 299.9 | 18.74 | 2.97 |
56 | Hartline, Brian MIA WR | 201.6 | 12.60 | 2.96 |
57 | Floyd, Michael ARI WR | 201.4 | 12.59 | 2.76 |
58 | Luck, Andrew IND QB | 299.58 | 18.72 | 2.65 |
59 | Gore, Frank SFO RB | 193.9 | 12.12 | 1.34 |
60 | Colston, Marques NOS WR | 199.3 | 13.29 | 0.66 |
61 | Wallace, Mike MIA WR | 199.3 | 12.46 | 0.66 |
62 | Cruz, Victor NYG WR | 195.8 | 13.99 | -2.84 |
63 | Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC RB | 188.02 | 12.54 | -4.54 |
64 | Bennett, Martellus CHI TE | 169.9 | 10.62 | -7.71 |
65 | Stacy, Zac STL RB | 184.4 | 13.17 | -8.16 |
66 | Jones, Marvin CIN WR | 188.7 | 11.79 | -9.94 |
67 | Morris, Alfred WAS RB | 182.3 | 11.39 | -10.26 |
68 | Tate, Golden SEA WR | 186.9 | 11.68 | -11.74 |
69 | Rice, Ray BAL RB | 180.1 | 12.01 | -12.46 |
70 | Wilson, Russell SEA QB | 284.18 | 17.76 | -12.75 |
71 | Cooper, Riley PHI WR | 184.3 | 11.52 | -14.34 |
72 | Sproles, Darren NOS RB | 176.4 | 11.76 | -16.16 |
73 | Roethlisberger, Ben PIT QB | 279.84 | 17.49 | -17.09 |
74 | Sanders, Emmanuel PIT WR | 181.5 | 11.34 | -17.14 |
75 | Jennings, Rashad OAK RB | 174.5 | 11.63 | -18.06 |
76 | Kaepernick, Colin SFO QB | 276.28 | 17.27 | -20.65 |
77 | Walker, Delanie TEN TE | 153.1 | 10.21 | -24.51 |
78 | Streater, Rod OAK WR | 173.5 | 10.84 | -25.14 |
79 | Romo, Tony DAL QB | 270.92 | 18.06 | -26.01 |
80 | Jennings, Greg MIN WR | 172.4 | 11.49 | -26.24 |
81 | Williams, DeAngelo CAR RB | 165.6 | 11.04 | -26.96 |
82 | Ellington, Andre ARI RB | 165.3 | 11.02 | -27.26 |
83 | Ryan, Matt ATL QB | 269.1 | 16.82 | -27.83 |
84 | Cook, Jared STL TE | 147.1 | 9.19 | -30.51 |
85 | Washington, Nate TEN WR | 167.9 | 10.49 | -30.74 |
86 | Smith, Alex KCC QB | 264.22 | 17.62 | -32.71 |
87 | Cotchery, Jerricho PIT WR | 165.7 | 10.36 | -32.94 |
88 | Brady, Tom NEP QB | 263.52 | 16.47 | -33.41 |
89 | Foles, Nick PHI QB | 262.14 | 20.17 | -34.79 |
90 | Smith, Steve CAR WR | 162.5 | 10.83 | -36.14 |
91 | Wright, Tim TBB TE | 141.3 | 8.83 | -36.31 |
92 | Tannehill, Ryan MIA QB | 260.32 | 16.27 | -36.61 |
93 | Fleener, Coby IND TE | 140.8 | 8.80 | -36.81 |
94 | Patterson, Cordarrelle MIN WR | 161.7 | 10.11 | -36.94 |
95 | Shorts, Cecil JAC WR | 161.7 | 12.44 | -36.94 |
96 | Spiller, C.J. BUF RB | 155.2 | 10.35 | -37.36 |
97 | Royal, Eddie SDC WR | 160.2 | 10.68 | -38.44 |
98 | Baldwin, Doug SEA WR | 158.4 | 9.90 | -40.24 |
99 | Jones, James GBP WR | 157.7 | 11.26 | -40.94 |
100 | Brown, Donald IND RB | 150.1 | 9.38 | -42.46 |
A Few Observations:
- First, let me mention that this model is built on full year fantasy points, NOT points per game. The scarcity of each position would change by using points per game as players like Aaron Rodgers and Rob Gronkowski would raise the averages of their respective positions. It’s an exercise that I will release in an article soon that I expect to yield different results.
- I’m a bit surprised to see that Peyton Manning was the 4th most valuable player but keep in mind that he is coming off the best season for a quarterback ever. Manning is a good bet to regress in 2014 – it’s simply unprecedented to follow up a record-setting season with another record-breaking year.
- Drew Brees had another “Brees-y” season but only provided the 19th most value. He’s a candidate to be overdrafted, per usual. With the quantity and quality of quarterback options, there’s no need to rush to attack the position.
- This is the second time we’ve seen evidence that Jimmy Graham should be a first round pick. He provides you with a consistent weekly advantage that is clearly superior to other tight ends.
- This is a reminder of how good Demaryius Thomas is. Yes, Josh Gordon and Calvin Johnson missed two games each and look to have more upside but Demaryius is a rock-solid WR1 and may have even more red-zone targets coming his way with Decker on the Jets.
- In 14 games Calvin Johnson and Josh Gordon provided more season-long value than any running back not named Charles, Forte, or McCoy. This falls in line with why I advocate receivers with your early round selections.
- Adrian Peterson also played 14 games – he finished 21 spots behind Gordon and 18 spots behind Megatron. If Norv Turner doesn’t help him catch more passes, he’ll also have a hard time outscoring them this season.
- Look at Marshawn Lynch – he’ll likely be taken top 10 in PPR leagues again this season but doesn’t provide any value. He’s overdrafted and has no upside to improve unless he starts catching more passes, which is unlikely to happen in his age-28 season. As my father once told me, “You can’t teach an old dog new tricks.”
- Knowshon Moreno comes in as the 4th most valuable running back – this provides more ammunition for those who believe Montee Ball should be a first round pick. If Ball can see passing down work, he shouldn’t have a hard time bypassing the numbers of the less-talented Moreno.