Last week, I discussed how math and the use of the Coefficient of Variation (CV) can help fantasy owners discern between an upside play and steady, less volatile option. Simply put, a higher CV means more upside, but also more risk, while a lower CV means fantasy owners can expect a player to perform closer to expectation more often than not.
With just one week left before the Apex Fantasy League playoffs, owners that need to win to get in, but are clear underdogs, should swing for the fences and plug in the high upside play. Clear favorites with a lead in the standings usually want to opt for their safer players.
With the help of numberFire’s free PPR projections and updated consistency scores, I’ll look at players with similar projections and point out the upside play at each position.
QUARTERBACKS
Player | Projection | StdDev | CV | Ceiling |
---|---|---|---|---|
Peyton Manning | 27.3 | 4.9 | 19.86% | 32.7 |
Drew Brees | 26.9 | 4.1 | 20.00% | 32.3 |
Tom Brady | 26.1 | 8.9 | 45.15% | 37.8 |
Aaron Rodgers | 25.2 | 8.1 | 34.28% | 33.8 |
Andrew Luck | 24.3 | 5.2 | 20.61% | 29.3 |
Matthew Stafford | 21.0 | 7.3 | 44.90% | 30.5 |
Ben Roethlisberger | 20.6 | 11.2 | 56.54% | 32.3 |
Joe Flacco | 19.8 | 7.4 | 45.88% | 28.9 |
Philip Rivers | 19.3 | 7.6 | 42.03% | 27.4 |
Tony Romo | 18.9 | 5.3 | 28.89% | 24.4 |
Andy Dalton | 18.9 | 6.7 | 44.42% | 27.3 |
Ryan Tannehill | 18.7 | 5.9 | 31.30% | 24.5 |
Russell Wilson | 17.6 | 8.5 | 40.27% | 24.6 |
Matt Ryan | 17.2 | 5.7 | 31.93% | 22.7 |
Eli Manning | 16.7 | 8.0 | 45.46% | 24.4 |
Cam Newton | 16.2 | 7.3 | 42.56% | 23.1 |
Alex Smith | 16.2 | 5.1 | 34.63% | 21.8 |
Colin Kaepernick | 16.1 | 4.8 | 28.26% | 20.6 |
Kyle Orton | 16.1 | 5.5 | 32.31% | 21.2 |
Jay Cutler | 16.0 | 6.1 | 33.05% | 21.2 |
Teddy Bridgewater | 15.9 | 5.9 | 45.08% | 23.1 |
Ryan Fitzpatrick | 14.5 | 5.0 | 33.38% | 19.4 |
Brian Hoyer | 13.6 | 4.5 | 33.10% | 18.1 |
Josh McCown | 13.3 | 7.4 | 47.37% | 19.7 |
Derek Carr | 12.7 | 6.1 | 46.93% | 18.7 |
Blake Bortles | 12.5 | 4.7 | 34.46% | 16.9 |
Andy Dalton vs. Tony Romo
Both of these quarterbacks have favorable matchups, and numberFire projects Dalton and Romo to each score 18.9 fantasy points. Romo has been one of the more consistent fantasy quarterbacks this year, but if you are a big underdog this week, and must win to get into the playoffs, plug in Dalton and hope that variance is on your side.
RUNNING BACKS
Player | Projections | StdDev | CV | Ceiling |
---|---|---|---|---|
Le'Veon Bell | 24.6 | 6.5 | 31.83% | 32.5 |
Matt Forte | 21.4 | 9.4 | 39.33% | 29.8 |
DeMarco Murray | 20.8 | 4.5 | 20.67% | 25.1 |
Marshawn Lynch | 20.1 | 11.2 | 57.67% | 31.7 |
Jamaal Charles | 19.4 | 9.9 | 53.09% | 29.7 |
Arian Foster | 18.8 | 9.1 | 38.54% | 26.0 |
Justin Forsett | 18.5 | 7.2 | 42.00% | 26.3 |
Andre Ellington | 17.6 | 6.5 | 40.01% | 24.6 |
Lamar Miller | 17.3 | 5.5 | 42.51% | 24.6 |
Eddie Lacy | 16.6 | 9.7 | 58.37% | 26.3 |
C.J. Anderson | 16.5 | 11.5 | 55.00% | 25.5 |
LeSean McCoy | 16.0 | 6.4 | 51.13% | 24.2 |
Rashad Jennings | 15.0 | 6.5 | 43.82% | 21.6 |
Giovani Bernard | 14.4 | 8.5 | 55.09% | 22.4 |
Fred Jackson | 14.1 | 6.2 | 46.73% | 20.7 |
Ryan Mathews | 13.5 | 5.4 | 43.63% | 19.4 |
Mark Ingram | 13.4 | 7.3 | 44.53% | 19.4 |
Shane Vereen | 13.2 | 7.4 | 60.03% | 21.1 |
Alfred Morris | 13.1 | 7.2 | 53.71% | 20.2 |
Reggie Bush | 12.2 | 6.2 | 63.64% | 20.0 |
Trent Richardson | 11.6 | 4.7 | 45.90% | 16.9 |
Frank Gore | 11.0 | 7.3 | 78.30% | 19.5 |
Denard Robinson | 10.6 | 7.0 | 73.45% | 18.3 |
Isaiah Crowell | 10.3 | 6.5 | 75.45% | 18.1 |
Jeremy Hill | 10.2 | 8.0 | 66.50% | 17.0 |
Steven Jackson | 9.7 | 5.3 | 55.17% | 15.0 |
Jerick McKinnon | 9.6 | 4.9 | 57.28% | 15.0 |
Chris Ivory | 9.5 | 6.5 | 63.14% | 15.6 |
Bishop Sankey | 9.5 | 4.2 | 58.30% | 15.1 |
Darren McFadden | 9.4 | 4.4 | 46.62% | 13.8 |
Tre Mason | 9.0 | 3.8 | 40.15% | 12.7 |
Joique Bell | 8.7 | 4.8 | 45.06% | 12.6 |
Terrance West | 8.3 | 5.8 | 69.34% | 14.1 |
Darren Sproles | 8.1 | 7.7 | 61.40% | 13.0 |
LeGarrette Blount | 8.0 | 6.6 | 118.38% | 17.5 |
Pierre Thomas | 7.8 | 9.1 | 71.24% | 13.3 |
Jonathan Stewart | 7.5 | 3.9 | 41.89% | 10.7 |
Lorenzo Taliaferro | 7.5 | 7.2 | 122.35% | 16.7 |
Alfred Blue | 7.3 | 4.8 | 78.96% | 13.0 |
Bobby Rainey | 7.2 | 6.0 | 61.58% | 11.7 |
Andre Williams | 7.2 | 5.4 | 71.01% | 12.3 |
Roy Helu | 6.9 | 4.1 | 45.59% | 10.1 |
Knile Davis | 6.8 | 9.5 | 111.16% | 14.3 |
Matt Asiata | 6.5 | 11.0 | 94.01% | 12.5 |
Chris Johnson | 6.5 | 5.9 | 76.39% | 11.4 |
Anthony Dixon | 6.2 | 4.4 | 99.63% | 12.4 |
Benny Cunningham | 6.1 | 4.5 | 51.99% | 9.2 |
Jonas Gray | 5.9 | 20.1 | 140.62% | 14.1 |
Carlos Hyde | 5.7 | 3.2 | 60.66% | 9.1 |
Branden Oliver | 5.7 | 10.4 | 87.74% | 10.6 |
Khiry Robinson | 5.4 | 5.7 | 68.92% | 9.0 |
Toby Gerhart | 5.0 | 3.5 | 58.93% | 8.0 |
Theo Riddick | 2.4 | 8.2 | 113.03% | 5.2 |
Travaris Cadet | 2.2 | 4.2 | 70.39% | 3.8 |
Mark Ingram vs. Shane Vereen vs. Alfred Morris
Debating between a couple of these backs as your RB2 for the most important game of the season is a real possibility, and they all come with question marks. With the return of Pierre Thomas to New Orleans and the addition of LeGarrette Blount in New England, Mark Ingram and Shane Vereen are in full on time shares, while Alf has to overcome Washington’s abysmal offensive efforts.
All three of these backs are projected within 0.3 points of each other, but CV tells us that Shane Vereen has the most upside. Because Vereen relies heavily on the passing game for his fantasy success, his usage is highly dependent on game script, making his fantasy output inherently volatile. With the highest over/under of the week and just a 3 point spread, an expected shootout against the Packers sets up nicely for a big game from Vereen.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Player | Projection | StdDev | CV | Ceiling |
---|---|---|---|---|
Antonio Brown | 21.1 | 7.8 | 32.59% | 28.0 |
Demaryius Thomas | 18.8 | 11.4 | 48.61% | 27.9 |
Calvin Johnson | 18.8 | 11.1 | 77.87% | 33.4 |
Jeremy Maclin | 18.3 | 12.1 | 61.77% | 29.7 |
A.J. Green | 18.3 | 9.4 | 59.08% | 29.1 |
Jordy Nelson | 17.9 | 9.9 | 47.87% | 26.4 |
Julio Jones | 17.7 | 7.9 | 44.75% | 25.5 |
Emmanuel Sanders | 17.3 | 8.5 | 40.48% | 24.4 |
Anquan Boldin | 17.3 | 7.1 | 45.82% | 25.2 |
Dez Bryant | 17.3 | 8.6 | 44.64% | 25.0 |
T.Y. Hilton | 16.8 | 8.9 | 49.65% | 25.1 |
Kelvin Benjamin | 16.7 | 7.8 | 48.89% | 24.9 |
Golden Tate | 16.5 | 8.2 | 45.54% | 24.1 |
Mike Evans | 16.3 | 10.7 | 59.00% | 26.0 |
Randall Cobb | 16.2 | 7.2 | 39.08% | 22.5 |
Alshon Jeffery | 16.1 | 7.4 | 48.06% | 23.9 |
Julian Edelman | 16.0 | 8.0 | 52.82% | 24.5 |
Brandon Marshall | 15.9 | 9.5 | 64.80% | 26.3 |
Sammy Watkins | 15.8 | 10.2 | 76.31% | 27.9 |
Roddy White | 15.4 | 6.7 | 44.09% | 22.2 |
Odell Beckham | 15.3 | 9.7 | 50.57% | 23.0 |
Mike Wallace | 15.1 | 4.2 | 31.05% | 19.8 |
Keenan Allen | 14.6 | 7.1 | 57.45% | 22.9 |
Andre Johnson | 14.4 | 5.0 | 43.01% | 20.6 |
Marques Colston | 14.3 | 5.2 | 52.12% | 21.8 |
Steve Smith | 14.2 | 8.9 | 59.70% | 22.7 |
Mohamed Sanu | 13.8 | 7.4 | 50.10% | 20.8 |
Brandon LaFell | 13.7 | 10.4 | 78.79% | 24.5 |
Larry Fitzgerald | 13.7 | 8.6 | 69.94% | 23.2 |
Percy Harvin | 13.3 | 7.2 | 69.29% | 22.5 |
Pierre Garcon | 12.6 | 9.1 | 88.07% | 23.7 |
Kendall Wright | 12.6 | 7.3 | 65.73% | 20.8 |
DeAndre Hopkins | 12.4 | 5.7 | 40.47% | 17.4 |
Michael Crabtree | 12.3 | 6.9 | 58.40% | 19.4 |
DeSean Jackson | 12.2 | 8.9 | 64.63% | 20.1 |
Doug Baldwin | 12.2 | 6.4 | 65.96% | 20.2 |
Jordan Matthews | 12.1 | 9.4 | 69.03% | 20.5 |
Torrey Smith | 11.9 | 7.2 | 64.43% | 19.6 |
Reggie Wayne | 11.7 | 6.8 | 55.56% | 18.1 |
Michael Floyd | 11.5 | 7.6 | 87.94% | 21.6 |
Rueben Randle | 11.2 | 4.7 | 43.17% | 16.0 |
Eric Decker | 11.1 | 5.5 | 45.13% | 16.1 |
Vincent Jackson | 11.1 | 5.4 | 46.77% | 16.2 |
Dwayne Bowe | 11.1 | 4.2 | 42.54% | 15.8 |
Jarvis Landry | 11.1 | 6.9 | 61.72% | 17.9 |
Malcom Floyd | 11.0 | 5.4 | 48.94% | 16.4 |
Kenny Stills | 10.9 | 5.8 | 55.83% | 16.9 |
Andrew Hawkins | 10.7 | 7.1 | 54.00% | 16.5 |
Kenny Britt | 9.7 | 6.5 | 76.33% | 17.0 |
John Brown | 9.5 | 7.1 | 65.68% | 15.7 |
James Jones | 9.4 | 6.0 | 49.84% | 14.0 |
Greg Jennings | 9.3 | 5.5 | 55.65% | 14.5 |
Andre Holmes | 8.8 | 8.8 | 93.44% | 17.0 |
Eddie Royal | 8.2 | 8.2 | 81.76% | 14.9 |
Terrance Williams | 7.4 | 7.3 | 74.19% | 12.9 |
Markus Wheaton | 7.0 | 5.6 | 65.84% | 11.5 |
Miles Austin | 6.7 | 4.5 | 48.98% | 10.0 |
Justin Hunter | 6.6 | 5.8 | 68.91% | 11.1 |
Robert Woods | 6.5 | 8.3 | 81.17% | 11.8 |
Taylor Gabriel | 5.8 | 5.5 | 66.02% | 9.7 |
Allen Hurns | 5.1 | 10.0 | 100.39% | 10.2 |
Torrey Smith vs. Reggie Wayne
Smith and Wayne are separated by just 0.2 fantasy points in this week’s projections, and matchups point to Reggie Wayne as the go to option. If you’re struggling to get into the playoffs and facing a top team this week, though, Torrey is your pick. The Ravens wide receiver is prone to disappearing acts, but when he shows up, it’s usually with a big game. 83% of Smith’s fantasy production has come in just 6 games this year. He’s the kind of upside wide receiver that an underdog wants on their team.
TIGHT ENDS
Player | Projections | StdDev | CV | Ceiling |
---|---|---|---|---|
Rob Gronkowski | 15.2 | 9.5 | 54.36% | 23.4 |
Jimmy Graham | 14.8 | 10.4 | 61.99% | 24.0 |
Julius Thomas | 14.3 | 10.6 | 68.45% | 24.1 |
Antonio Gates | 11.8 | 10.0 | 77.17% | 20.8 |
Travis Kelce | 11.6 | 5.5 | 50.74% | 17.5 |
Jason Witten | 11.5 | 4.2 | 40.98% | 16.2 |
Martellus Bennett | 10.5 | 7.1 | 51.45% | 15.8 |
Greg Olsen | 10.1 | 7.4 | 51.44% | 15.2 |
Coby Fleener | 9.8 | 6.5 | 70.82% | 16.7 |
Heath Miller | 9.7 | 7.9 | 83.36% | 17.8 |
Delanie Walker | 9.1 | 7.9 | 59.44% | 14.6 |
Dwayne Allen | 8.6 | 6.2 | 58.75% | 13.6 |
Brent Celek | 8.4 | 5.1 | 109.49% | 17.5 |
Jared Cook | 7.8 | 4.5 | 55.29% | 12.1 |
Scott Chandler | 7.5 | 5.1 | 76.02% | 13.1 |
Mychal Rivera | 7.4 | 7.7 | 95.99% | 14.5 |
Larry Donnell | 7.2 | 8.5 | 74.63% | 12.6 |
Jermaine Gresham | 7.2 | 4.6 | 59.31% | 11.5 |
Charles Clay | 6.2 | 5.2 | 60.53% | 10.0 |
John Carlson | 6.0 | 1.9 | 35.22% | 8.1 |
Vernon Davis | 5.5 | 5.7 | 96.63% | 10.9 |
Zach Ertz | 5.3 | 4.8 | 57.91% | 8.4 |
Owen Daniels | 5.2 | 6.2 | 68.00% | 8.7 |
Andrew Quarless | 4.8 | 4.1 | 72.45% | 8.3 |
Austin Seferian-Jenkins | 4.8 | 4.6 | 76.43% | 8.5 |
Jace Amaro | 4.8 | 6.6 | 96.18% | 9.4 |
Anthony Fasano | 4.4 | 4.5 | 75.11% | 7.6 |
Tim Wright | 4.1 | 8.4 | 113.89% | 8.8 |
Niles Paul | 4.0 | 6.6 | 85.96% | 7.4 |
Daniel Fells | 3.6 | 4.0 | 86.64% | 6.8 |
Lance Kendricks | 2.9 | 4.0 | 68.83% | 4.9 |
Clay Harbor | 2.2 | 6.6 | 90.04% | 4.3 |
Larry Donnell vs. Jermaine Gresham
A couple of weeks ago, Donnell was a clear every week starter, but his production has wavered lately, while Gresham has quietly become a high floor play. Owners that watched Donnell fail to capitalize on a quality matchup against the Cowboys last week might be turned off if they have other options, but his volatility means a higher ceiling, which you need if you’re going up against a superior opponent.