Peak Wide Receiver Age Revisited

Wide receivers continue to become more valuable in fantasy football circles – especially in PPR leagues, like Apex. Last year, I took an in-depth look at when wide receivers peak. It’s an important topic considering the increasing value of the position in fantasy football. In this article, we’re going to examine the ages of wide receivers during their “peak” seasons and ultimately decide when wide receivers are at their best.

Studying the Past

Last year, I began the study by setting the peak as the average number of receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns for WR1s or the top 12 receivers from this past season. Let’s begin by comparing the production from the top 12 receivers over the past two seasons:

Year	Rec	Rec Yards	TDs	Targets	Y/T	Rec FPs
2013	95.3	1400.9	9.67	158.2	8.95	293.4
2014	97	1406	10.25	147.9	9.54	299.1

Strangely WR1s improved despite a reduction in targets. The top 12 receivers were more productive in every facet of the game despite seeing fewer opportunities. This can be explained by inefficient receivers like Pierre Garcon being replaced by highly efficient receivers like Jordy Nelson and Odell Beckham Jr.

As a whole, the league’s passing numbers continue to rise:

Screen Shot 2015-01-21 at 4.13.01 PM

Defining A Peak Season

Last year, we set the peak numbers at 80 receptions, 1,400 receiving yards, and 8 touchdowns. This threshold gives us a sample size of 53. The list includes all wide receivers to meet the requirements since 1990 and was generated by Pro-Football-Reference.com:

Rk	Player	Year	Age	G	Rec	Yds	Y/R	TD	Y/G
1	Jerry Rice	1995	33	16	122	1848	15.15	15	115.5
2	Isaac Bruce	1995	23	16	119	1781	14.97	13	111.3
3	Marvin Harrison	2002	30	16	143	1722	12.04	11	107.6
4	Antonio Brown	2014	26	16	129	1698	13.16	13	106.1
5	Torry Holt	2003	27	16	117	1696	14.5	12	106
6	Herman Moore	1995	26	16	123	1686	13.71	14	105.4
7	Calvin Johnson	2011	26	16	96	1681	17.51	16	105.1
8	Marvin Harrison	1999	27	16	115	1663	14.46	12	103.9
9	Josh Gordon	2013	22	14	87	1646	18.92	9	117.6
10	Randy Moss	2003	26	16	111	1632	14.7	17	102
11	Demaryius Thomas	2014	27	16	111	1619	14.59	11	101.2
12	Michael Irvin	1995	29	16	111	1603	14.44	10	100.2
13	Rod Smith	2000	30	16	100	1602	16.02	8	100.1
14	David Boston	2001	23	16	98	1598	16.31	8	99.9
15	Rob Moore	1997	29	16	97	1584	16.33	8	99
16	Andre Johnson	2008	27	16	115	1575	13.7	8	98.4
17	Andre Johnson	2009	28	16	101	1569	15.53	9	98.1
18	Wes Welker	2011	30	16	122	1569	12.86	9	98.1
19	Steve Smith	2005	26	16	103	1563	15.17	12	97.7
20	Victor Cruz	2011	25	16	82	1536	18.73	9	96
21	Marvin Harrison	2001	29	16	109	1524	13.98	15	95.3
22	Michael Irvin	1991	25	16	93	1523	16.38	8	95.2
23	Jordy Nelson	2014	29	16	98	1519	15.5	13	94.9
24	Reggie Wayne	2007	29	16	104	1510	14.52	10	94.4
25	Brandon Marshall	2012	28	16	118	1508	12.78	11	94.3
26	Jerry Rice	1993	31	16	98	1503	15.34	15	93.9
27	Jerry Rice	1990	28	16	100	1502	15.02	13	93.9
28	Jerry Rice	1994	32	16	112	1499	13.38	13	93.7
29	Antonio Brown	2013	25	16	110	1499	13.63	8	93.7
30	Robert Brooks	1995	25	16	102	1497	14.68	13	93.6
31	Randy Moss	2007	30	16	98	1493	15.23	23	93.3
32	Calvin Johnson	2013	28	14	84	1492	17.76	12	106.6
33	Brett Perriman	1995	30	16	108	1488	13.78	9	93
34	Santana Moss	2005	26	16	84	1483	17.65	9	92.7
35	Isaac Bruce	2000	28	16	87	1471	16.91	9	91.9
36	Sterling Sharpe	1992	27	16	108	1461	13.53	13	91.3
37	Terrell Owens	2000	27	14	97	1451	14.96	13	103.6
38	Chad Johnson	2007	29	16	93	1440	15.48	8	90
39	Demaryius Thomas	2012	25	16	94	1434	15.26	10	89.6
40	Chad Johnson	2005	27	16	97	1432	14.76	9	89.5
41	Larry Fitzgerald	2008	25	16	96	1431	14.91	12	89.4
42	Demaryius Thomas	2013	26	16	92	1430	15.54	14	89.4
43	A.J. Green	2013	25	16	98	1426	14.55	11	89.1
44	Antonio Freeman	1998	26	15	84	1424	16.95	14	94.9
45	Marvin Harrison	2000	28	16	102	1413	13.85	14	88.3
46	Randy Moss	1999	22	16	80	1413	17.66	11	88.3
47	Terrell Owens	2001	28	16	93	1412	15.18	16	88.3
48	Larry Fitzgerald	2011	28	16	80	1411	17.64	8	88.2
49	Larry Fitzgerald	2007	24	15	100	1409	14.09	10	93.9
50	Larry Fitzgerald	2005	22	16	103	1409	13.68	10	88.1
51	Muhsin Muhammad	2004	31	16	93	1405	15.11	16	87.8
52	Emmanuel Sanders	2014	27	16	101	1404	13.9	9	87.8
53	Marcus Robinson	1999	24	16	84	1400	16.67	9	87.5

The average age of this group is 27.06. Here’s a distribution graph of their ages:

The obvious peak is from age 25 to 30 – 79.2% of the players fall within this margin. Jerry Rice owns three of the four seasons that take place after the age of 30. Rice also didn’t rely as much on athleticism as many other wide receivers so he is somewhat of an anomaly. This is evidence that you should expect some decline from a receiver after his age 30 season.

Re-Defining a Peak Season

To improve our sample size, we’ll drop receiving yards to 1,300. By lowering the yardage threshold, we broadened our sample size to 85. The players are listed in the table below. This list was generated by Pro-Football-Reference.com:

Rk	Player	Year	Age	G	Rec	Yds	Y/R	TD	Y/G
1	Jerry Rice	1995	33	16	122	1848	15.15	15	115.5
2	Isaac Bruce	1995	23	16	119	1781	14.97	13	111.3
3	Marvin Harrison	2002	30	16	143	1722	12.04	11	107.6
4	Antonio Brown	2014	26	16	129	1698	13.16	13	106.1
5	Torry Holt	2003	27	16	117	1696	14.5	12	106
6	Herman Moore	1995	26	16	123	1686	13.71	14	105.4
7	Calvin Johnson	2011	26	16	96	1681	17.51	16	105.1
8	Marvin Harrison	1999	27	16	115	1663	14.46	12	103.9
9	Josh Gordon	2013	22	14	87	1646	18.92	9	117.6
10	Randy Moss	2003	26	16	111	1632	14.7	17	102
11	Demaryius Thomas	2014	27	16	111	1619	14.59	11	101.2
12	Michael Irvin	1995	29	16	111	1603	14.44	10	100.2
13	Rod Smith	2000	30	16	100	1602	16.02	8	100.1
14	David Boston	2001	23	16	98	1598	16.31	8	99.9
15	Rob Moore	1997	29	16	97	1584	16.33	8	99
16	Andre Johnson	2008	27	16	115	1575	13.7	8	98.4
17	Andre Johnson	2009	28	16	101	1569	15.53	9	98.1
18	Wes Welker	2011	30	16	122	1569	12.86	9	98.1
19	Steve Smith	2005	26	16	103	1563	15.17	12	97.7
20	Victor Cruz	2011	25	16	82	1536	18.73	9	96
21	Marvin Harrison	2001	29	16	109	1524	13.98	15	95.3
22	Michael Irvin	1991	25	16	93	1523	16.38	8	95.2
23	Jordy Nelson	2014	29	16	98	1519	15.5	13	94.9
24	Reggie Wayne	2007	29	16	104	1510	14.52	10	94.4
25	Brandon Marshall	2012	28	16	118	1508	12.78	11	94.3
26	Jerry Rice	1993	31	16	98	1503	15.34	15	93.9
27	Jerry Rice	1990	28	16	100	1502	15.02	13	93.9
28	Antonio Brown	2013	25	16	110	1499	13.63	8	93.7
29	Jerry Rice	1994	32	16	112	1499	13.38	13	93.7
30	Robert Brooks	1995	25	16	102	1497	14.68	13	93.6
31	Randy Moss	2007	30	16	98	1493	15.23	23	93.3
32	Calvin Johnson	2013	28	14	84	1492	17.76	12	106.6
33	Brett Perriman	1995	30	16	108	1488	13.78	9	93
34	Santana Moss	2005	26	16	84	1483	17.65	9	92.7
35	Isaac Bruce	2000	28	16	87	1471	16.91	9	91.9
36	Sterling Sharpe	1992	27	16	108	1461	13.53	13	91.3
37	Terrell Owens	2000	27	14	97	1451	14.96	13	103.6
38	Chad Johnson	2007	29	16	93	1440	15.48	8	90
39	Demaryius Thomas	2012	25	16	94	1434	15.26	10	89.6
40	Chad Johnson	2005	27	16	97	1432	14.76	9	89.5
41	Larry Fitzgerald	2008	25	16	96	1431	14.91	12	89.4
42	Demaryius Thomas	2013	26	16	92	1430	15.54	14	89.4
43	A.J. Green	2013	25	16	98	1426	14.55	11	89.1
44	Antonio Freeman	1998	26	15	84	1424	16.95	14	94.9
45	Marvin Harrison	2000	28	16	102	1413	13.85	14	88.3
46	Randy Moss	1999	22	16	80	1413	17.66	11	88.3
47	Terrell Owens	2001	28	16	93	1412	15.18	16	88.3
48	Larry Fitzgerald	2011	28	16	80	1411	17.64	8	88.2
49	Larry Fitzgerald	2007	24	15	100	1409	14.09	10	93.9
50	Larry Fitzgerald	2005	22	16	103	1409	13.68	10	88.1
51	Muhsin Muhammad	2004	31	16	93	1405	15.11	16	87.8
52	Emmanuel Sanders	2014	27	16	101	1404	13.9	9	87.8
53	Marcus Robinson	1999	24	16	84	1400	16.67	9	87.5
54	Joe Horn	2004	32	16	94	1399	14.88	11	87.4
55	Roddy White	2010	29	16	115	1389	12.08	10	86.8
56	Dez Bryant	2012	24	16	92	1382	15.02	12	86.4
57	Javon Walker	2004	26	16	89	1382	15.53	12	86.4
58	Anquan Boldin	2003	23	16	101	1377	13.63	8	86.1
59	Jimmy Smith	2001	32	16	112	1373	12.26	8	85.8
60	Torry Holt	2004	28	16	94	1372	14.6	10	85.8
61	Cris Carter	1995	30	16	122	1371	11.24	17	85.7
62	Marvin Harrison	2006	34	16	95	1366	14.38	12	85.4
63	Chad Johnson	2003	25	16	90	1355	15.06	10	84.7
64	Terrell Owens	2007	34	15	81	1355	16.73	15	90.3
65	A.J. Green	2012	24	16	97	1350	13.92	11	84.4
66	Rod Smith	2001	31	15	113	1343	11.88	11	89.5
67	Amani Toomer	2002	28	16	82	1343	16.38	8	83.9
68	Tim Brown	1995	29	16	89	1342	15.08	10	83.9
69	Terance Mathis	1994	27	16	111	1342	12.09	11	83.9
70	Joe Horn	2000	28	16	94	1340	14.26	8	83.8
71	DeSean Jackson	2013	27	16	82	1332	16.24	9	83.3
72	Torry Holt	2005	29	14	102	1331	13.05	9	95.1
73	Hines Ward	2002	26	16	112	1329	11.87	12	83.1
74	Miles Austin	2009	25	16	81	1320	16.3	11	82.5
75	Dez Bryant	2014	26	16	88	1320	15	16	82.5
76	Jeremy Maclin	2014	26	16	85	1318	15.51	10	82.4
77	Ed McCaffrey	2000	32	16	101	1317	13.04	9	82.3
78	Jordy Nelson	2013	28	16	85	1314	15.46	8	82.1
79	Sidney Rice	2009	23	16	83	1312	15.81	8	82
80	Reggie Wayne	2006	28	16	86	1310	15.23	9	81.9
81	Tim Brown	1994	28	16	89	1309	14.71	9	81.8
82	Odell Beckham	2014	22	12	91	1305	14.34	12	108.8
83	Derrick Mason	2003	29	16	95	1303	13.72	8	81.4
84	Andre Reed	1994	30	16	90	1303	14.48	8	81.4
85	Terrell Owens	2002	29	14	100	1300	13	13	92.9

The average age jumped up to 27.36 years old. Here is the distribution graph:

The distribution spread out a little more but the clear peak of 25 to 30 remains in tact – 74.1% of the peak seasons fall within that threshold. As the “peak” statistics are reduced, older wide receivers who aren’t as explosive are able to meet the criteria. Perhaps this means that when selecting a wide receiver in the early rounds, you want someone that falls within 25 and 29 years of age.

What does this mean for 2015?

Going into his age 30 season, there are some concerns with taking Calvin Johnson as one of the top five receivers. Still, he should have at least one quality season left. Jordy Nelson also turns 30, maybe leading the Packers to take a little off his plate in favor of youngster Davante Adams.

This chart is enough to scare me away from many aging veterans. Their ages next season are in parenthesis: Steve Smith (36), Anquan Boldin (35), Andre Johnson (34), Roddy White (34), and Malcom Floyd (34). To a lesser degree I’d also like to shy away from Vincent Jackson (32), Marques Colston (32), and Larry Fitzgerald (32).

There are many great wide receivers who are currently in their prime: Alshon Jeffery (25), Julio Jones (26), T.Y. Hilton (26), Dez Bryant (27), Antonio Brown (27), A.J. Green (27), and Demaryius Thomas (28).

There are a lot of very good young wide receivers – guys like Odell Beckham Jr. (23), DeAndre Hopkins (23), and Mike Evans (22). This article may push you away from them – history would say it should. Just keep in mind that these guys could be special, meaning that no rules apply.

However, when it comes to selecting Odell Beckham (23) or Dez Bryant (27) at the end of the 1^st round – this article would suggest you take the proven star who is entering his peak.

Apex Insider Blog

Studying the Past

Defining A Peak Season

Re-Defining a Peak Season

What does this mean for 2015?

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