Wide receivers continue to become more valuable in fantasy football circles – especially in PPR leagues, like Apex. Last year, I took an in-depth look at when wide receivers peak. It’s an important topic considering the increasing value of the position in fantasy football. In this article, we’re going to examine the ages of wide receivers during their “peak” seasons and ultimately decide when wide receivers are at their best.
Studying the Past
Last year, I began the study by setting the peak as the average number of receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns for WR1s or the top 12 receivers from this past season. Let’s begin by comparing the production from the top 12 receivers over the past two seasons:
Year | Rec | Rec Yards | TDs | Targets | Y/T | Rec FPs |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2013 | 95.3 | 1400.9 | 9.67 | 158.2 | 8.95 | 293.4 |
2014 | 97 | 1406 | 10.25 | 147.9 | 9.54 | 299.1 |
Strangely WR1s improved despite a reduction in targets. The top 12 receivers were more productive in every facet of the game despite seeing fewer opportunities. This can be explained by inefficient receivers like Pierre Garcon being replaced by highly efficient receivers like Jordy Nelson and Odell Beckham Jr.
As a whole, the league’s passing numbers continue to rise:
Defining A Peak Season
Last year, we set the peak numbers at 80 receptions, 1,400 receiving yards, and 8 touchdowns. This threshold gives us a sample size of 53. The list includes all wide receivers to meet the requirements since 1990 and was generated by Pro-Football-Reference.com:
Rk | Player | Year | Age | G | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Jerry Rice | 1995 | 33 | 16 | 122 | 1848 | 15.15 | 15 | 115.5 |
2 | Isaac Bruce | 1995 | 23 | 16 | 119 | 1781 | 14.97 | 13 | 111.3 |
3 | Marvin Harrison | 2002 | 30 | 16 | 143 | 1722 | 12.04 | 11 | 107.6 |
4 | Antonio Brown | 2014 | 26 | 16 | 129 | 1698 | 13.16 | 13 | 106.1 |
5 | Torry Holt | 2003 | 27 | 16 | 117 | 1696 | 14.5 | 12 | 106 |
6 | Herman Moore | 1995 | 26 | 16 | 123 | 1686 | 13.71 | 14 | 105.4 |
7 | Calvin Johnson | 2011 | 26 | 16 | 96 | 1681 | 17.51 | 16 | 105.1 |
8 | Marvin Harrison | 1999 | 27 | 16 | 115 | 1663 | 14.46 | 12 | 103.9 |
9 | Josh Gordon | 2013 | 22 | 14 | 87 | 1646 | 18.92 | 9 | 117.6 |
10 | Randy Moss | 2003 | 26 | 16 | 111 | 1632 | 14.7 | 17 | 102 |
11 | Demaryius Thomas | 2014 | 27 | 16 | 111 | 1619 | 14.59 | 11 | 101.2 |
12 | Michael Irvin | 1995 | 29 | 16 | 111 | 1603 | 14.44 | 10 | 100.2 |
13 | Rod Smith | 2000 | 30 | 16 | 100 | 1602 | 16.02 | 8 | 100.1 |
14 | David Boston | 2001 | 23 | 16 | 98 | 1598 | 16.31 | 8 | 99.9 |
15 | Rob Moore | 1997 | 29 | 16 | 97 | 1584 | 16.33 | 8 | 99 |
16 | Andre Johnson | 2008 | 27 | 16 | 115 | 1575 | 13.7 | 8 | 98.4 |
17 | Andre Johnson | 2009 | 28 | 16 | 101 | 1569 | 15.53 | 9 | 98.1 |
18 | Wes Welker | 2011 | 30 | 16 | 122 | 1569 | 12.86 | 9 | 98.1 |
19 | Steve Smith | 2005 | 26 | 16 | 103 | 1563 | 15.17 | 12 | 97.7 |
20 | Victor Cruz | 2011 | 25 | 16 | 82 | 1536 | 18.73 | 9 | 96 |
21 | Marvin Harrison | 2001 | 29 | 16 | 109 | 1524 | 13.98 | 15 | 95.3 |
22 | Michael Irvin | 1991 | 25 | 16 | 93 | 1523 | 16.38 | 8 | 95.2 |
23 | Jordy Nelson | 2014 | 29 | 16 | 98 | 1519 | 15.5 | 13 | 94.9 |
24 | Reggie Wayne | 2007 | 29 | 16 | 104 | 1510 | 14.52 | 10 | 94.4 |
25 | Brandon Marshall | 2012 | 28 | 16 | 118 | 1508 | 12.78 | 11 | 94.3 |
26 | Jerry Rice | 1993 | 31 | 16 | 98 | 1503 | 15.34 | 15 | 93.9 |
27 | Jerry Rice | 1990 | 28 | 16 | 100 | 1502 | 15.02 | 13 | 93.9 |
28 | Jerry Rice | 1994 | 32 | 16 | 112 | 1499 | 13.38 | 13 | 93.7 |
29 | Antonio Brown | 2013 | 25 | 16 | 110 | 1499 | 13.63 | 8 | 93.7 |
30 | Robert Brooks | 1995 | 25 | 16 | 102 | 1497 | 14.68 | 13 | 93.6 |
31 | Randy Moss | 2007 | 30 | 16 | 98 | 1493 | 15.23 | 23 | 93.3 |
32 | Calvin Johnson | 2013 | 28 | 14 | 84 | 1492 | 17.76 | 12 | 106.6 |
33 | Brett Perriman | 1995 | 30 | 16 | 108 | 1488 | 13.78 | 9 | 93 |
34 | Santana Moss | 2005 | 26 | 16 | 84 | 1483 | 17.65 | 9 | 92.7 |
35 | Isaac Bruce | 2000 | 28 | 16 | 87 | 1471 | 16.91 | 9 | 91.9 |
36 | Sterling Sharpe | 1992 | 27 | 16 | 108 | 1461 | 13.53 | 13 | 91.3 |
37 | Terrell Owens | 2000 | 27 | 14 | 97 | 1451 | 14.96 | 13 | 103.6 |
38 | Chad Johnson | 2007 | 29 | 16 | 93 | 1440 | 15.48 | 8 | 90 |
39 | Demaryius Thomas | 2012 | 25 | 16 | 94 | 1434 | 15.26 | 10 | 89.6 |
40 | Chad Johnson | 2005 | 27 | 16 | 97 | 1432 | 14.76 | 9 | 89.5 |
41 | Larry Fitzgerald | 2008 | 25 | 16 | 96 | 1431 | 14.91 | 12 | 89.4 |
42 | Demaryius Thomas | 2013 | 26 | 16 | 92 | 1430 | 15.54 | 14 | 89.4 |
43 | A.J. Green | 2013 | 25 | 16 | 98 | 1426 | 14.55 | 11 | 89.1 |
44 | Antonio Freeman | 1998 | 26 | 15 | 84 | 1424 | 16.95 | 14 | 94.9 |
45 | Marvin Harrison | 2000 | 28 | 16 | 102 | 1413 | 13.85 | 14 | 88.3 |
46 | Randy Moss | 1999 | 22 | 16 | 80 | 1413 | 17.66 | 11 | 88.3 |
47 | Terrell Owens | 2001 | 28 | 16 | 93 | 1412 | 15.18 | 16 | 88.3 |
48 | Larry Fitzgerald | 2011 | 28 | 16 | 80 | 1411 | 17.64 | 8 | 88.2 |
49 | Larry Fitzgerald | 2007 | 24 | 15 | 100 | 1409 | 14.09 | 10 | 93.9 |
50 | Larry Fitzgerald | 2005 | 22 | 16 | 103 | 1409 | 13.68 | 10 | 88.1 |
51 | Muhsin Muhammad | 2004 | 31 | 16 | 93 | 1405 | 15.11 | 16 | 87.8 |
52 | Emmanuel Sanders | 2014 | 27 | 16 | 101 | 1404 | 13.9 | 9 | 87.8 |
53 | Marcus Robinson | 1999 | 24 | 16 | 84 | 1400 | 16.67 | 9 | 87.5 |
The average age of this group is 27.06. Here’s a distribution graph of their ages:
The obvious peak is from age 25 to 30 – 79.2% of the players fall within this margin. Jerry Rice owns three of the four seasons that take place after the age of 30. Rice also didn’t rely as much on athleticism as many other wide receivers so he is somewhat of an anomaly. This is evidence that you should expect some decline from a receiver after his age 30 season.
Re-Defining a Peak Season
To improve our sample size, we’ll drop receiving yards to 1,300. By lowering the yardage threshold, we broadened our sample size to 85. The players are listed in the table below. This list was generated by Pro-Football-Reference.com:
Rk | Player | Year | Age | G | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Jerry Rice | 1995 | 33 | 16 | 122 | 1848 | 15.15 | 15 | 115.5 |
2 | Isaac Bruce | 1995 | 23 | 16 | 119 | 1781 | 14.97 | 13 | 111.3 |
3 | Marvin Harrison | 2002 | 30 | 16 | 143 | 1722 | 12.04 | 11 | 107.6 |
4 | Antonio Brown | 2014 | 26 | 16 | 129 | 1698 | 13.16 | 13 | 106.1 |
5 | Torry Holt | 2003 | 27 | 16 | 117 | 1696 | 14.5 | 12 | 106 |
6 | Herman Moore | 1995 | 26 | 16 | 123 | 1686 | 13.71 | 14 | 105.4 |
7 | Calvin Johnson | 2011 | 26 | 16 | 96 | 1681 | 17.51 | 16 | 105.1 |
8 | Marvin Harrison | 1999 | 27 | 16 | 115 | 1663 | 14.46 | 12 | 103.9 |
9 | Josh Gordon | 2013 | 22 | 14 | 87 | 1646 | 18.92 | 9 | 117.6 |
10 | Randy Moss | 2003 | 26 | 16 | 111 | 1632 | 14.7 | 17 | 102 |
11 | Demaryius Thomas | 2014 | 27 | 16 | 111 | 1619 | 14.59 | 11 | 101.2 |
12 | Michael Irvin | 1995 | 29 | 16 | 111 | 1603 | 14.44 | 10 | 100.2 |
13 | Rod Smith | 2000 | 30 | 16 | 100 | 1602 | 16.02 | 8 | 100.1 |
14 | David Boston | 2001 | 23 | 16 | 98 | 1598 | 16.31 | 8 | 99.9 |
15 | Rob Moore | 1997 | 29 | 16 | 97 | 1584 | 16.33 | 8 | 99 |
16 | Andre Johnson | 2008 | 27 | 16 | 115 | 1575 | 13.7 | 8 | 98.4 |
17 | Andre Johnson | 2009 | 28 | 16 | 101 | 1569 | 15.53 | 9 | 98.1 |
18 | Wes Welker | 2011 | 30 | 16 | 122 | 1569 | 12.86 | 9 | 98.1 |
19 | Steve Smith | 2005 | 26 | 16 | 103 | 1563 | 15.17 | 12 | 97.7 |
20 | Victor Cruz | 2011 | 25 | 16 | 82 | 1536 | 18.73 | 9 | 96 |
21 | Marvin Harrison | 2001 | 29 | 16 | 109 | 1524 | 13.98 | 15 | 95.3 |
22 | Michael Irvin | 1991 | 25 | 16 | 93 | 1523 | 16.38 | 8 | 95.2 |
23 | Jordy Nelson | 2014 | 29 | 16 | 98 | 1519 | 15.5 | 13 | 94.9 |
24 | Reggie Wayne | 2007 | 29 | 16 | 104 | 1510 | 14.52 | 10 | 94.4 |
25 | Brandon Marshall | 2012 | 28 | 16 | 118 | 1508 | 12.78 | 11 | 94.3 |
26 | Jerry Rice | 1993 | 31 | 16 | 98 | 1503 | 15.34 | 15 | 93.9 |
27 | Jerry Rice | 1990 | 28 | 16 | 100 | 1502 | 15.02 | 13 | 93.9 |
28 | Antonio Brown | 2013 | 25 | 16 | 110 | 1499 | 13.63 | 8 | 93.7 |
29 | Jerry Rice | 1994 | 32 | 16 | 112 | 1499 | 13.38 | 13 | 93.7 |
30 | Robert Brooks | 1995 | 25 | 16 | 102 | 1497 | 14.68 | 13 | 93.6 |
31 | Randy Moss | 2007 | 30 | 16 | 98 | 1493 | 15.23 | 23 | 93.3 |
32 | Calvin Johnson | 2013 | 28 | 14 | 84 | 1492 | 17.76 | 12 | 106.6 |
33 | Brett Perriman | 1995 | 30 | 16 | 108 | 1488 | 13.78 | 9 | 93 |
34 | Santana Moss | 2005 | 26 | 16 | 84 | 1483 | 17.65 | 9 | 92.7 |
35 | Isaac Bruce | 2000 | 28 | 16 | 87 | 1471 | 16.91 | 9 | 91.9 |
36 | Sterling Sharpe | 1992 | 27 | 16 | 108 | 1461 | 13.53 | 13 | 91.3 |
37 | Terrell Owens | 2000 | 27 | 14 | 97 | 1451 | 14.96 | 13 | 103.6 |
38 | Chad Johnson | 2007 | 29 | 16 | 93 | 1440 | 15.48 | 8 | 90 |
39 | Demaryius Thomas | 2012 | 25 | 16 | 94 | 1434 | 15.26 | 10 | 89.6 |
40 | Chad Johnson | 2005 | 27 | 16 | 97 | 1432 | 14.76 | 9 | 89.5 |
41 | Larry Fitzgerald | 2008 | 25 | 16 | 96 | 1431 | 14.91 | 12 | 89.4 |
42 | Demaryius Thomas | 2013 | 26 | 16 | 92 | 1430 | 15.54 | 14 | 89.4 |
43 | A.J. Green | 2013 | 25 | 16 | 98 | 1426 | 14.55 | 11 | 89.1 |
44 | Antonio Freeman | 1998 | 26 | 15 | 84 | 1424 | 16.95 | 14 | 94.9 |
45 | Marvin Harrison | 2000 | 28 | 16 | 102 | 1413 | 13.85 | 14 | 88.3 |
46 | Randy Moss | 1999 | 22 | 16 | 80 | 1413 | 17.66 | 11 | 88.3 |
47 | Terrell Owens | 2001 | 28 | 16 | 93 | 1412 | 15.18 | 16 | 88.3 |
48 | Larry Fitzgerald | 2011 | 28 | 16 | 80 | 1411 | 17.64 | 8 | 88.2 |
49 | Larry Fitzgerald | 2007 | 24 | 15 | 100 | 1409 | 14.09 | 10 | 93.9 |
50 | Larry Fitzgerald | 2005 | 22 | 16 | 103 | 1409 | 13.68 | 10 | 88.1 |
51 | Muhsin Muhammad | 2004 | 31 | 16 | 93 | 1405 | 15.11 | 16 | 87.8 |
52 | Emmanuel Sanders | 2014 | 27 | 16 | 101 | 1404 | 13.9 | 9 | 87.8 |
53 | Marcus Robinson | 1999 | 24 | 16 | 84 | 1400 | 16.67 | 9 | 87.5 |
54 | Joe Horn | 2004 | 32 | 16 | 94 | 1399 | 14.88 | 11 | 87.4 |
55 | Roddy White | 2010 | 29 | 16 | 115 | 1389 | 12.08 | 10 | 86.8 |
56 | Dez Bryant | 2012 | 24 | 16 | 92 | 1382 | 15.02 | 12 | 86.4 |
57 | Javon Walker | 2004 | 26 | 16 | 89 | 1382 | 15.53 | 12 | 86.4 |
58 | Anquan Boldin | 2003 | 23 | 16 | 101 | 1377 | 13.63 | 8 | 86.1 |
59 | Jimmy Smith | 2001 | 32 | 16 | 112 | 1373 | 12.26 | 8 | 85.8 |
60 | Torry Holt | 2004 | 28 | 16 | 94 | 1372 | 14.6 | 10 | 85.8 |
61 | Cris Carter | 1995 | 30 | 16 | 122 | 1371 | 11.24 | 17 | 85.7 |
62 | Marvin Harrison | 2006 | 34 | 16 | 95 | 1366 | 14.38 | 12 | 85.4 |
63 | Chad Johnson | 2003 | 25 | 16 | 90 | 1355 | 15.06 | 10 | 84.7 |
64 | Terrell Owens | 2007 | 34 | 15 | 81 | 1355 | 16.73 | 15 | 90.3 |
65 | A.J. Green | 2012 | 24 | 16 | 97 | 1350 | 13.92 | 11 | 84.4 |
66 | Rod Smith | 2001 | 31 | 15 | 113 | 1343 | 11.88 | 11 | 89.5 |
67 | Amani Toomer | 2002 | 28 | 16 | 82 | 1343 | 16.38 | 8 | 83.9 |
68 | Tim Brown | 1995 | 29 | 16 | 89 | 1342 | 15.08 | 10 | 83.9 |
69 | Terance Mathis | 1994 | 27 | 16 | 111 | 1342 | 12.09 | 11 | 83.9 |
70 | Joe Horn | 2000 | 28 | 16 | 94 | 1340 | 14.26 | 8 | 83.8 |
71 | DeSean Jackson | 2013 | 27 | 16 | 82 | 1332 | 16.24 | 9 | 83.3 |
72 | Torry Holt | 2005 | 29 | 14 | 102 | 1331 | 13.05 | 9 | 95.1 |
73 | Hines Ward | 2002 | 26 | 16 | 112 | 1329 | 11.87 | 12 | 83.1 |
74 | Miles Austin | 2009 | 25 | 16 | 81 | 1320 | 16.3 | 11 | 82.5 |
75 | Dez Bryant | 2014 | 26 | 16 | 88 | 1320 | 15 | 16 | 82.5 |
76 | Jeremy Maclin | 2014 | 26 | 16 | 85 | 1318 | 15.51 | 10 | 82.4 |
77 | Ed McCaffrey | 2000 | 32 | 16 | 101 | 1317 | 13.04 | 9 | 82.3 |
78 | Jordy Nelson | 2013 | 28 | 16 | 85 | 1314 | 15.46 | 8 | 82.1 |
79 | Sidney Rice | 2009 | 23 | 16 | 83 | 1312 | 15.81 | 8 | 82 |
80 | Reggie Wayne | 2006 | 28 | 16 | 86 | 1310 | 15.23 | 9 | 81.9 |
81 | Tim Brown | 1994 | 28 | 16 | 89 | 1309 | 14.71 | 9 | 81.8 |
82 | Odell Beckham | 2014 | 22 | 12 | 91 | 1305 | 14.34 | 12 | 108.8 |
83 | Derrick Mason | 2003 | 29 | 16 | 95 | 1303 | 13.72 | 8 | 81.4 |
84 | Andre Reed | 1994 | 30 | 16 | 90 | 1303 | 14.48 | 8 | 81.4 |
85 | Terrell Owens | 2002 | 29 | 14 | 100 | 1300 | 13 | 13 | 92.9 |
The average age jumped up to 27.36 years old. Here is the distribution graph:
The distribution spread out a little more but the clear peak of 25 to 30 remains in tact – 74.1% of the peak seasons fall within that threshold. As the “peak” statistics are reduced, older wide receivers who aren’t as explosive are able to meet the criteria. Perhaps this means that when selecting a wide receiver in the early rounds, you want someone that falls within 25 and 29 years of age.
What does this mean for 2015?
Going into his age 30 season, there are some concerns with taking Calvin Johnson as one of the top five receivers. Still, he should have at least one quality season left. Jordy Nelson also turns 30, maybe leading the Packers to take a little off his plate in favor of youngster Davante Adams.
This chart is enough to scare me away from many aging veterans. Their ages next season are in parenthesis: Steve Smith (36), Anquan Boldin (35), Andre Johnson (34), Roddy White (34), and Malcom Floyd (34). To a lesser degree I’d also like to shy away from Vincent Jackson (32), Marques Colston (32), and Larry Fitzgerald (32).
There are many great wide receivers who are currently in their prime: Alshon Jeffery (25), Julio Jones (26), T.Y. Hilton (26), Dez Bryant (27), Antonio Brown (27), A.J. Green (27), and Demaryius Thomas (28).
There are a lot of very good young wide receivers – guys like Odell Beckham Jr. (23), DeAndre Hopkins (23), and Mike Evans (22). This article may push you away from them – history would say it should. Just keep in mind that these guys could be special, meaning that no rules apply.
However, when it comes to selecting Odell Beckham (23) or Dez Bryant (27) at the end of the 1st round – this article would suggest you take the proven star who is entering his peak.
I think you may see the peak WR age trend younger over the next few years. I would not be surprised if the peak WR age becomes 24-30 by 2017.