When evaluating possible fantasy selections, age is a very important variable. It can tell us when players are likely to improve or regress. We’ve looked at the Peak Age for NFL Wide Receivers, now we’ll look at the Peak Age for an NFL Running Back.
Defining A Peak Season
The first question is: What is a peak season for an NFL running back? We’ll start by setting the baseline at 1,700 yards from scrimmage and 10 total touchdowns. This threshold gives us a sample size of 93. The list includes all running backs to meet the requirements since 1990 and was generated by Pro-Football-Reference.com:
Rk | Player | Year | Age | Tm | G | TD | Touch | YScm |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Chris Johnson | 2009 | 24 | TEN | 16 | 16 | 408 | 2509 |
2 | Marshall Faulk | 1999 | 26 | STL | 16 | 12 | 340 | 2429 |
3 | Tiki Barber | 2005 | 30 | NYG | 16 | 11 | 411 | 2390 |
4 | LaDainian Tomlinson | 2003 | 24 | SDG | 16 | 17 | 413 | 2370 |
5 | Barry Sanders | 1997 | 29 | DET | 16 | 14 | 368 | 2358 |
6 | Steven Jackson | 2006 | 23 | STL | 16 | 16 | 436 | 2334 |
7 | LaDainian Tomlinson | 2006 | 27 | SDG | 16 | 31 | 404 | 2323 |
8 | Adrian Peterson | 2012 | 27 | MIN | 16 | 13 | 388 | 2314 |
9 | Edgerrin James | 2000 | 22 | IND | 16 | 18 | 450 | 2303 |
10 | Priest Holmes | 2002 | 29 | KAN | 14 | 24 | 383 | 2287 |
11 | Jamal Lewis | 2003 | 24 | BAL | 16 | 14 | 413 | 2271 |
12 | DeMarco Murray | 2014 | 26 | DAL | 16 | 13 | 449 | 2261 |
13 | Ahman Green | 2003 | 26 | GNB | 16 | 20 | 405 | 2250 |
14 | Marshall Faulk | 1998 | 25 | IND | 16 | 10 | 410 | 2227 |
15 | Terrell Davis | 1998 | 26 | DEN | 16 | 23 | 417 | 2225 |
16 | Arian Foster | 2010 | 24 | HOU | 16 | 18 | 393 | 2220 |
17 | Ricky Williams | 2002 | 25 | MIA | 16 | 17 | 430 | 2216 |
18 | Le'Veon Bell | 2014 | 22 | PIT | 16 | 11 | 373 | 2215 |
19 | Larry Johnson | 2006 | 27 | KAN | 16 | 19 | 457 | 2199 |
20 | Marshall Faulk | 2000 | 27 | STL | 14 | 26 | 335 | 2189 |
21 | LaDainian Tomlinson | 2002 | 23 | SDG | 16 | 15 | 451 | 2172 |
22 | Priest Holmes | 2001 | 28 | KAN | 16 | 10 | 389 | 2169 |
23 | Jamal Anderson | 1998 | 26 | ATL | 16 | 16 | 437 | 2165 |
24 | Emmitt Smith | 1995 | 26 | DAL | 16 | 25 | 439 | 2148 |
25 | Marshall Faulk | 2001 | 28 | STL | 14 | 21 | 343 | 2147 |
26 | LeSean McCoy | 2013 | 25 | PHI | 16 | 11 | 366 | 2146 |
27 | Edgerrin James | 1999 | 21 | IND | 16 | 17 | 431 | 2139 |
28 | Thurman Thomas | 1992 | 26 | BUF | 16 | 12 | 370 | 2113 |
29 | Priest Holmes | 2003 | 30 | KAN | 16 | 27 | 394 | 2110 |
30 | Brian Westbrook | 2007 | 28 | PHI | 15 | 12 | 372 | 2104 |
31 | Tiki Barber | 2004 | 29 | NYG | 16 | 15 | 374 | 2096 |
32 | Larry Johnson | 2005 | 26 | KAN | 16 | 21 | 369 | 2093 |
33 | Ray Rice | 2011 | 24 | BAL | 16 | 15 | 367 | 2068 |
34 | Emmitt Smith | 1992 | 23 | DAL | 16 | 19 | 432 | 2048 |
35 | Thurman Thomas | 1991 | 25 | BUF | 15 | 12 | 350 | 2038 |
36 | Terrell Davis | 1997 | 25 | DEN | 15 | 15 | 411 | 2037 |
37 | Barry Foster | 1992 | 24 | PIT | 16 | 11 | 426 | 2034 |
38 | Tiki Barber | 2002 | 27 | NYG | 16 | 11 | 374 | 1984 |
39 | Ahman Green | 2001 | 24 | GNB | 16 | 11 | 366 | 1981 |
40 | Jamaal Charles | 2013 | 27 | KAN | 15 | 19 | 329 | 1980 |
41 | Maurice Jones-Drew | 2011 | 26 | JAX | 16 | 11 | 386 | 1980 |
42 | Eddie George | 2000 | 27 | TEN | 16 | 16 | 453 | 1962 |
43 | Shaun Alexander | 2005 | 28 | SEA | 16 | 28 | 385 | 1958 |
44 | LaDainian Tomlinson | 2007 | 28 | SDG | 16 | 18 | 375 | 1949 |
45 | Curtis Martin | 2004 | 31 | NYJ | 16 | 14 | 412 | 1942 |
46 | Matt Forte | 2013 | 28 | CHI | 16 | 12 | 363 | 1933 |
47 | Doug Martin | 2012 | 23 | TAM | 16 | 12 | 368 | 1926 |
48 | Brian Westbrook | 2006 | 27 | PHI | 15 | 11 | 322 | 1916 |
49 | Clinton Portis | 2003 | 22 | DEN | 13 | 14 | 328 | 1905 |
50 | Charlie Garner | 2002 | 30 | OAK | 16 | 11 | 273 | 1903 |
51 | Emmitt Smith | 1993 | 24 | DAL | 14 | 10 | 340 | 1900 |
52 | Barry Sanders | 1995 | 27 | DET | 16 | 12 | 362 | 1898 |
53 | Adrian Peterson | 2008 | 23 | MIN | 16 | 10 | 385 | 1885 |
54 | Clinton Portis | 2002 | 21 | DEN | 16 | 17 | 306 | 1872 |
55 | Robert Smith | 2000 | 28 | MIN | 16 | 10 | 331 | 1869 |
56 | Chris Warren | 1994 | 26 | SEA | 16 | 11 | 374 | 1868 |
57 | Shaun Alexander | 2004 | 27 | SEA | 16 | 20 | 376 | 1866 |
58 | Barry Sanders | 1991 | 23 | DET | 15 | 17 | 383 | 1855 |
59 | Ricky Watters | 1996 | 27 | PHI | 16 | 13 | 404 | 1855 |
60 | Terrell Davis | 1996 | 24 | DEN | 16 | 15 | 381 | 1848 |
61 | Matt Forte | 2014 | 29 | CHI | 16 | 10 | 368 | 1846 |
62 | Edgerrin James | 2005 | 27 | IND | 15 | 14 | 404 | 1843 |
63 | Arian Foster | 2011 | 25 | HOU | 13 | 12 | 331 | 1841 |
64 | Curtis Martin | 2001 | 28 | NYJ | 16 | 10 | 386 | 1833 |
65 | LaDainian Tomlinson | 2005 | 26 | SDG | 16 | 20 | 390 | 1832 |
66 | Thurman Thomas | 1990 | 24 | BUF | 16 | 13 | 320 | 1829 |
67 | Emmitt Smith | 1994 | 25 | DAL | 15 | 22 | 418 | 1825 |
68 | Emmitt Smith | 1991 | 22 | DAL | 16 | 13 | 414 | 1821 |
69 | Adrian Peterson | 2009 | 24 | MIN | 16 | 18 | 357 | 1819 |
70 | Dorsey Levens | 1997 | 27 | GNB | 16 | 12 | 382 | 1805 |
71 | Marshall Faulk | 1994 | 21 | IND | 16 | 12 | 366 | 1804 |
72 | Charlie Garner | 2000 | 28 | SFO | 16 | 10 | 326 | 1789 |
73 | Marshawn Lynch | 2012 | 26 | SEA | 16 | 12 | 338 | 1786 |
74 | Barry Sanders | 1990 | 22 | DET | 16 | 16 | 291 | 1784 |
75 | LaDainian Tomlinson | 2004 | 25 | SDG | 15 | 18 | 392 | 1776 |
76 | Domanick Williams | 2004 | 24 | HOU | 15 | 14 | 370 | 1776 |
77 | Maurice Jones-Drew | 2009 | 24 | JAX | 16 | 16 | 371 | 1765 |
78 | Eddie George | 1999 | 26 | TEN | 16 | 13 | 367 | 1762 |
79 | Curtis Martin | 1995 | 22 | NWE | 16 | 15 | 398 | 1748 |
80 | Travis Henry | 2002 | 24 | BUF | 16 | 14 | 368 | 1747 |
81 | Deuce McAllister | 2002 | 24 | NOR | 15 | 16 | 372 | 1740 |
82 | Michael Turner | 2008 | 26 | ATL | 16 | 17 | 382 | 1740 |
83 | Corey Dillon | 2004 | 30 | NWE | 15 | 13 | 360 | 1738 |
84 | Ahman Green | 2000 | 23 | GNB | 16 | 13 | 336 | 1734 |
85 | Clinton Portis | 2005 | 24 | WAS | 16 | 11 | 382 | 1732 |
86 | Shaun Alexander | 2003 | 26 | SEA | 16 | 16 | 368 | 1730 |
87 | Ricky Williams | 2003 | 26 | MIA | 16 | 10 | 442 | 1723 |
88 | Willie Parker | 2006 | 26 | PIT | 16 | 16 | 368 | 1716 |
89 | Matt Forte | 2008 | 23 | CHI | 16 | 12 | 379 | 1715 |
90 | Curtis Martin | 2000 | 27 | NYJ | 16 | 11 | 386 | 1712 |
91 | Adrian Peterson | 2015 | 30 | MIN | 16 | 11 | 357 | 1707 |
92 | Ricky Watters | 1995 | 26 | PHI | 16 | 12 | 399 | 1707 |
93 | Barry Sanders | 1996 | 28 | DET | 16 | 11 | 331 | 1700 |
The average age of this group is 25.66. Here’s a distribution graph of their ages:
The youngest players to accomplish a peak season were 21. Only Curtis Martin attained the feat after the age of 30. The peak is from age 24 to 28 – 71% of the seasons fall within this range. The decline appears to start at age 29, with the wheels falling off at age 31.
Re-Defining A Peak Season
We’re re-defining the peak season to see if it changes the distribution of ages. To do this, we’ll drop the requirements to 1,550 yards from scrimmage and eight total touchdowns. This criterion broadens our sample size to 154 seasons. The players are listed in the table below. This list was generated by Pro-Football-Reference.com:
Rk | Player | Year | Age | Tm | G | TD | Touch | YScm |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Chris Johnson | 2009 | 24 | TEN | 16 | 16 | 408 | 2509 |
2 | Marshall Faulk | 1999 | 26 | STL | 16 | 12 | 340 | 2429 |
3 | Tiki Barber | 2005 | 30 | NYG | 16 | 11 | 411 | 2390 |
4 | LaDainian Tomlinson | 2003 | 24 | SDG | 16 | 17 | 413 | 2370 |
5 | Barry Sanders | 1997 | 29 | DET | 16 | 14 | 368 | 2358 |
6 | Steven Jackson | 2006 | 23 | STL | 16 | 16 | 436 | 2334 |
7 | LaDainian Tomlinson | 2006 | 27 | SDG | 16 | 31 | 404 | 2323 |
8 | Adrian Peterson | 2012 | 27 | MIN | 16 | 13 | 388 | 2314 |
9 | Edgerrin James | 2000 | 22 | IND | 16 | 18 | 450 | 2303 |
10 | Priest Holmes | 2002 | 29 | KAN | 14 | 24 | 383 | 2287 |
11 | Jamal Lewis | 2003 | 24 | BAL | 16 | 14 | 413 | 2271 |
12 | DeMarco Murray | 2014 | 26 | DAL | 16 | 13 | 449 | 2261 |
13 | Ahman Green | 2003 | 26 | GNB | 16 | 20 | 405 | 2250 |
14 | Marshall Faulk | 1998 | 25 | IND | 16 | 10 | 410 | 2227 |
15 | Terrell Davis | 1998 | 26 | DEN | 16 | 23 | 417 | 2225 |
16 | Arian Foster | 2010 | 24 | HOU | 16 | 18 | 393 | 2220 |
17 | Ricky Williams | 2002 | 25 | MIA | 16 | 17 | 430 | 2216 |
18 | Le'Veon Bell | 2014 | 22 | PIT | 16 | 11 | 373 | 2215 |
19 | Larry Johnson | 2006 | 27 | KAN | 16 | 19 | 457 | 2199 |
20 | Marshall Faulk | 2000 | 27 | STL | 14 | 26 | 335 | 2189 |
21 | Frank Gore | 2006 | 23 | SFO | 16 | 9 | 373 | 2180 |
22 | LaDainian Tomlinson | 2002 | 23 | SDG | 16 | 15 | 451 | 2172 |
23 | Priest Holmes | 2001 | 28 | KAN | 16 | 10 | 389 | 2169 |
24 | Barry Sanders | 1994 | 26 | DET | 16 | 8 | 375 | 2166 |
25 | Jamal Anderson | 1998 | 26 | ATL | 16 | 16 | 437 | 2165 |
26 | Deuce McAllister | 2003 | 25 | NOR | 16 | 8 | 420 | 2157 |
27 | Emmitt Smith | 1995 | 26 | DAL | 16 | 25 | 439 | 2148 |
28 | Marshall Faulk | 2001 | 28 | STL | 14 | 21 | 343 | 2147 |
29 | LeSean McCoy | 2013 | 25 | PHI | 16 | 11 | 366 | 2146 |
30 | Edgerrin James | 1999 | 21 | IND | 16 | 17 | 431 | 2139 |
31 | Thurman Thomas | 1992 | 26 | BUF | 16 | 12 | 370 | 2113 |
32 | Priest Holmes | 2003 | 30 | KAN | 16 | 27 | 394 | 2110 |
33 | Garrison Hearst | 1998 | 27 | SFO | 16 | 9 | 349 | 2105 |
34 | Brian Westbrook | 2007 | 28 | PHI | 15 | 12 | 372 | 2104 |
35 | Tiki Barber | 2004 | 29 | NYG | 16 | 15 | 374 | 2096 |
36 | Larry Johnson | 2005 | 26 | KAN | 16 | 21 | 369 | 2093 |
37 | Ray Rice | 2011 | 24 | BAL | 16 | 15 | 367 | 2068 |
38 | Emmitt Smith | 1992 | 23 | DAL | 16 | 19 | 432 | 2048 |
39 | Ray Rice | 2009 | 22 | BAL | 16 | 8 | 332 | 2041 |
40 | Thurman Thomas | 1991 | 25 | BUF | 15 | 12 | 350 | 2038 |
41 | Terrell Davis | 1997 | 25 | DEN | 15 | 15 | 411 | 2037 |
42 | Barry Foster | 1992 | 24 | PIT | 16 | 11 | 426 | 2034 |
43 | Edgerrin James | 2004 | 26 | IND | 16 | 9 | 385 | 2031 |
44 | Tiki Barber | 2002 | 27 | NYG | 16 | 11 | 374 | 1984 |
45 | Ahman Green | 2001 | 24 | GNB | 16 | 11 | 366 | 1981 |
46 | Jamaal Charles | 2013 | 27 | KAN | 15 | 19 | 329 | 1980 |
47 | Maurice Jones-Drew | 2011 | 26 | JAX | 16 | 11 | 386 | 1980 |
48 | Eddie George | 2000 | 27 | TEN | 16 | 16 | 453 | 1962 |
49 | Shaun Alexander | 2005 | 28 | SEA | 16 | 28 | 385 | 1958 |
50 | LaDainian Tomlinson | 2007 | 28 | SDG | 16 | 18 | 375 | 1949 |
51 | Curtis Martin | 2004 | 31 | NYJ | 16 | 14 | 412 | 1942 |
52 | Jamaal Charles | 2010 | 24 | KAN | 16 | 8 | 275 | 1935 |
53 | Matt Forte | 2013 | 28 | CHI | 16 | 12 | 363 | 1933 |
54 | Doug Martin | 2012 | 23 | TAM | 16 | 12 | 368 | 1926 |
55 | Brian Westbrook | 2006 | 27 | PHI | 15 | 11 | 322 | 1916 |
56 | Clinton Portis | 2003 | 22 | DEN | 13 | 14 | 328 | 1905 |
57 | Charlie Garner | 2002 | 30 | OAK | 16 | 11 | 273 | 1903 |
58 | Emmitt Smith | 1993 | 24 | DAL | 14 | 10 | 340 | 1900 |
59 | Barry Sanders | 1995 | 27 | DET | 16 | 12 | 362 | 1898 |
60 | Adrian Peterson | 2008 | 23 | MIN | 16 | 10 | 385 | 1885 |
61 | Clinton Portis | 2002 | 21 | DEN | 16 | 17 | 306 | 1872 |
62 | Robert Smith | 2000 | 28 | MIN | 16 | 10 | 331 | 1869 |
63 | Chris Warren | 1994 | 26 | SEA | 16 | 11 | 374 | 1868 |
64 | Lorenzo White | 1992 | 26 | HOU | 16 | 8 | 322 | 1867 |
65 | Shaun Alexander | 2004 | 27 | SEA | 16 | 20 | 376 | 1866 |
66 | Barry Sanders | 1991 | 23 | DET | 15 | 17 | 383 | 1855 |
67 | Ricky Watters | 1996 | 27 | PHI | 16 | 13 | 404 | 1855 |
68 | Ricky Watters | 2000 | 31 | SEA | 16 | 9 | 341 | 1855 |
69 | Terrell Davis | 1996 | 24 | DEN | 16 | 15 | 381 | 1848 |
70 | Matt Forte | 2014 | 29 | CHI | 16 | 10 | 368 | 1846 |
71 | Edgerrin James | 2005 | 27 | IND | 15 | 14 | 404 | 1843 |
72 | Arian Foster | 2011 | 25 | HOU | 13 | 12 | 331 | 1841 |
73 | Curtis Martin | 2001 | 28 | NYJ | 16 | 10 | 386 | 1833 |
74 | LaDainian Tomlinson | 2005 | 26 | SDG | 16 | 20 | 390 | 1832 |
75 | Thurman Thomas | 1990 | 24 | BUF | 16 | 13 | 320 | 1829 |
76 | Emmitt Smith | 1994 | 25 | DAL | 15 | 22 | 418 | 1825 |
77 | Emmitt Smith | 1991 | 22 | DAL | 16 | 13 | 414 | 1821 |
78 | Adrian Peterson | 2009 | 24 | MIN | 16 | 18 | 357 | 1819 |
79 | Dorsey Levens | 1997 | 27 | GNB | 16 | 12 | 382 | 1805 |
80 | Marshall Faulk | 1994 | 21 | IND | 16 | 12 | 366 | 1804 |
81 | Charlie Garner | 2000 | 28 | SFO | 16 | 10 | 326 | 1789 |
82 | Marshawn Lynch | 2012 | 26 | SEA | 16 | 12 | 338 | 1786 |
83 | Barry Sanders | 1990 | 22 | DET | 16 | 16 | 291 | 1784 |
84 | LaDainian Tomlinson | 2004 | 25 | SDG | 15 | 18 | 392 | 1776 |
85 | Domanick Williams | 2004 | 24 | HOU | 15 | 14 | 370 | 1776 |
86 | Jerome Bettis | 1997 | 25 | PIT | 15 | 9 | 390 | 1775 |
87 | Maurice Jones-Drew | 2009 | 24 | JAX | 16 | 16 | 371 | 1765 |
88 | Eddie George | 1999 | 26 | TEN | 16 | 13 | 367 | 1762 |
89 | Curtis Martin | 1995 | 22 | NWE | 16 | 15 | 398 | 1748 |
90 | Travis Henry | 2002 | 24 | BUF | 16 | 14 | 368 | 1747 |
91 | Deuce McAllister | 2002 | 24 | NOR | 15 | 16 | 372 | 1740 |
92 | Michael Turner | 2008 | 26 | ATL | 16 | 17 | 382 | 1740 |
93 | Corey Dillon | 2004 | 30 | NWE | 15 | 13 | 360 | 1738 |
94 | Ahman Green | 2000 | 23 | GNB | 16 | 13 | 336 | 1734 |
95 | Clinton Portis | 2005 | 24 | WAS | 16 | 11 | 382 | 1732 |
96 | Shaun Alexander | 2003 | 26 | SEA | 16 | 16 | 368 | 1730 |
97 | Tiki Barber | 2000 | 25 | NYG | 16 | 9 | 323 | 1725 |
98 | Ricky Williams | 2003 | 26 | MIA | 16 | 10 | 442 | 1723 |
99 | Fred Taylor | 2002 | 26 | JAX | 16 | 8 | 336 | 1722 |
100 | Willie Parker | 2006 | 26 | PIT | 16 | 16 | 368 | 1716 |
101 | Matt Forte | 2008 | 23 | CHI | 16 | 12 | 379 | 1715 |
102 | Curtis Martin | 2000 | 27 | NYJ | 16 | 11 | 386 | 1712 |
103 | Adrian Peterson | 2015 | 30 | MIN | 16 | 11 | 357 | 1707 |
104 | Ricky Watters | 1995 | 26 | PHI | 16 | 12 | 399 | 1707 |
105 | Clinton Portis | 2008 | 27 | WAS | 16 | 9 | 370 | 1705 |
106 | C.J. Spiller | 2012 | 25 | BUF | 16 | 8 | 250 | 1703 |
107 | Barry Sanders | 1996 | 28 | DET | 16 | 11 | 331 | 1700 |
108 | Napoleon Kaufman | 1997 | 24 | OAK | 16 | 8 | 312 | 1697 |
109 | Alfred Morris | 2012 | 24 | WAS | 16 | 13 | 346 | 1690 |
110 | Terry Allen | 1992 | 24 | MIN | 16 | 15 | 315 | 1679 |
111 | Marshawn Lynch | 2014 | 28 | SEA | 16 | 17 | 317 | 1673 |
112 | LeSean McCoy | 2010 | 22 | PHI | 15 | 9 | 285 | 1672 |
113 | Darren McFadden | 2010 | 23 | OAK | 13 | 10 | 270 | 1664 |
114 | Shaun Alexander | 2001 | 24 | SEA | 16 | 16 | 353 | 1661 |
115 | Steve Slaton | 2008 | 22 | HOU | 16 | 10 | 318 | 1659 |
116 | Mike Anderson | 2000 | 27 | DEN | 16 | 15 | 320 | 1656 |
117 | Peyton Hillis | 2010 | 24 | CLE | 16 | 13 | 331 | 1654 |
118 | Curtis Martin | 1998 | 25 | NYJ | 15 | 9 | 412 | 1652 |
119 | Clinton Portis | 2007 | 26 | WAS | 16 | 11 | 372 | 1651 |
120 | Fred Taylor | 1998 | 22 | JAX | 15 | 17 | 308 | 1644 |
121 | Arian Foster | 2012 | 26 | HOU | 16 | 17 | 391 | 1641 |
122 | Adrian Peterson | 2010 | 25 | MIN | 15 | 13 | 319 | 1639 |
123 | Fred Taylor | 2000 | 24 | JAX | 13 | 14 | 328 | 1639 |
124 | DeAngelo Williams | 2008 | 25 | CAR | 16 | 20 | 295 | 1636 |
125 | Shaun Alexander | 2002 | 25 | SEA | 16 | 18 | 354 | 1635 |
126 | Devonta Freeman | 2015 | 23 | ATL | 15 | 14 | 338 | 1634 |
127 | Ahman Green | 2002 | 25 | GNB | 14 | 9 | 343 | 1633 |
128 | Stephen Davis | 2000 | 26 | WAS | 15 | 11 | 365 | 1631 |
129 | LeSean McCoy | 2011 | 23 | PHI | 15 | 20 | 321 | 1624 |
130 | Ray Rice | 2012 | 25 | BAL | 16 | 10 | 318 | 1621 |
131 | Matt Forte | 2010 | 25 | CHI | 16 | 9 | 288 | 1616 |
132 | Ricky Watters | 1998 | 29 | SEA | 16 | 9 | 371 | 1612 |
133 | Chris Johnson | 2010 | 25 | TEN | 16 | 12 | 360 | 1609 |
134 | Adrian Peterson | 2007 | 22 | MIN | 14 | 13 | 273 | 1609 |
135 | Dorsey Levens | 1999 | 29 | GNB | 14 | 10 | 350 | 1607 |
136 | Stephen Davis | 2003 | 29 | CAR | 14 | 8 | 332 | 1603 |
137 | LaDainian Tomlinson | 2001 | 22 | SDG | 16 | 10 | 398 | 1603 |
138 | Ricky Watters | 1994 | 25 | SFO | 16 | 11 | 305 | 1596 |
139 | Chris Warren | 1995 | 27 | SEA | 16 | 16 | 345 | 1593 |
140 | LaMont Jordan | 2005 | 27 | OAK | 14 | 11 | 342 | 1588 |
141 | Knowshon Moreno | 2013 | 26 | DEN | 16 | 13 | 301 | 1586 |
142 | Natrone Means | 1994 | 22 | SDG | 16 | 12 | 382 | 1585 |
143 | Barry Sanders | 1992 | 24 | DET | 16 | 10 | 341 | 1577 |
144 | Arian Foster | 2014 | 28 | HOU | 13 | 13 | 298 | 1573 |
145 | Marshawn Lynch | 2013 | 27 | SEA | 16 | 14 | 337 | 1573 |
146 | Duce Staley | 2002 | 27 | PHI | 16 | 8 | 320 | 1570 |
147 | Eddie Lacy | 2014 | 24 | GNB | 16 | 13 | 288 | 1566 |
148 | Neal Anderson | 1990 | 26 | CHI | 15 | 13 | 302 | 1562 |
149 | Warrick Dunn | 2000 | 25 | TAM | 16 | 9 | 292 | 1555 |
150 | Jerome Bettis | 1996 | 24 | PIT | 16 | 11 | 342 | 1553 |
151 | Marshall Faulk | 1995 | 22 | IND | 16 | 14 | 345 | 1553 |
152 | Jamal Lewis | 2007 | 28 | CLE | 15 | 11 | 328 | 1552 |
153 | Edgerrin James | 2003 | 25 | IND | 13 | 11 | 361 | 1551 |
154 | Eddie George | 1996 | 23 | HOU | 16 | 8 | 358 | 1550 |
The average age dropped to 25.44. Here’s a distribution graph of their ages:
The peak remains intact – however the player pool got younger. The peak is from age 24 to 27 – 63% of the peak seasons fall within this range. 89% of the peak seasons fall within age 22 to age 28. Just 4.5% of the peak seasons happened after the age of 29.
This distribution (in conjunction with our previous study) concludes that wide receivers have a longer shelf life than running backs.
What Does This Mean For 2016?
Obviously this doesn’t bode well for the NFL’s leading rusher, Adrian Peterson, who will be 31 this season. Other significant backs over the age of 30 include: Frank Gore (33), DeAngelo Williams (33), Matt Forte (31), Rashad Jennings (31), and Justin Forsett (31).
It’s also significant to note that Jamaal Charles is entering his age 30 season. Jonathan Stewart will be 29 years old this season.
It’s a smart idea to target young, talented running backs who back up older backs who are likely to struggle due to potential injuries or a regression in physical ability.
At 24 years old, Le’Veon Bell and David Johnson will be squarely in their primes.