Peak Age for NFL Running Back

When evaluating possible fantasy selections, age is a very important variable. It can tell us when players are likely to improve or regress. We’ve looked at the Peak Age for NFL Wide Receivers, now we’ll look at the Peak Age for an NFL Running Back.

Defining A Peak Season

The first question is: What is a peak season for an NFL running back? We’ll start by setting the baseline at 1,700 yards from scrimmage and 10 total touchdowns. This threshold gives us a sample size of 93. The list includes all running backs to meet the requirements since 1990 and was generated by Pro-Football-Reference.com:

Rk	Player	Year	Age	Tm	G	TD	Touch	YScm
1	Chris Johnson	2009	24	TEN	16	16	408	2509
2	Marshall Faulk	1999	26	STL	16	12	340	2429
3	Tiki Barber	2005	30	NYG	16	11	411	2390
4	LaDainian Tomlinson	2003	24	SDG	16	17	413	2370
5	Barry Sanders	1997	29	DET	16	14	368	2358
6	Steven Jackson	2006	23	STL	16	16	436	2334
7	LaDainian Tomlinson	2006	27	SDG	16	31	404	2323
8	Adrian Peterson	2012	27	MIN	16	13	388	2314
9	Edgerrin James	2000	22	IND	16	18	450	2303
10	Priest Holmes	2002	29	KAN	14	24	383	2287
11	Jamal Lewis	2003	24	BAL	16	14	413	2271
12	DeMarco Murray	2014	26	DAL	16	13	449	2261
13	Ahman Green	2003	26	GNB	16	20	405	2250
14	Marshall Faulk	1998	25	IND	16	10	410	2227
15	Terrell Davis	1998	26	DEN	16	23	417	2225
16	Arian Foster	2010	24	HOU	16	18	393	2220
17	Ricky Williams	2002	25	MIA	16	17	430	2216
18	Le'Veon Bell	2014	22	PIT	16	11	373	2215
19	Larry Johnson	2006	27	KAN	16	19	457	2199
20	Marshall Faulk	2000	27	STL	14	26	335	2189
21	LaDainian Tomlinson	2002	23	SDG	16	15	451	2172
22	Priest Holmes	2001	28	KAN	16	10	389	2169
23	Jamal Anderson	1998	26	ATL	16	16	437	2165
24	Emmitt Smith	1995	26	DAL	16	25	439	2148
25	Marshall Faulk	2001	28	STL	14	21	343	2147
26	LeSean McCoy	2013	25	PHI	16	11	366	2146
27	Edgerrin James	1999	21	IND	16	17	431	2139
28	Thurman Thomas	1992	26	BUF	16	12	370	2113
29	Priest Holmes	2003	30	KAN	16	27	394	2110
30	Brian Westbrook	2007	28	PHI	15	12	372	2104
31	Tiki Barber	2004	29	NYG	16	15	374	2096
32	Larry Johnson	2005	26	KAN	16	21	369	2093
33	Ray Rice	2011	24	BAL	16	15	367	2068
34	Emmitt Smith	1992	23	DAL	16	19	432	2048
35	Thurman Thomas	1991	25	BUF	15	12	350	2038
36	Terrell Davis	1997	25	DEN	15	15	411	2037
37	Barry Foster	1992	24	PIT	16	11	426	2034
38	Tiki Barber	2002	27	NYG	16	11	374	1984
39	Ahman Green	2001	24	GNB	16	11	366	1981
40	Jamaal Charles	2013	27	KAN	15	19	329	1980
41	Maurice Jones-Drew	2011	26	JAX	16	11	386	1980
42	Eddie George	2000	27	TEN	16	16	453	1962
43	Shaun Alexander	2005	28	SEA	16	28	385	1958
44	LaDainian Tomlinson	2007	28	SDG	16	18	375	1949
45	Curtis Martin	2004	31	NYJ	16	14	412	1942
46	Matt Forte	2013	28	CHI	16	12	363	1933
47	Doug Martin	2012	23	TAM	16	12	368	1926
48	Brian Westbrook	2006	27	PHI	15	11	322	1916
49	Clinton Portis	2003	22	DEN	13	14	328	1905
50	Charlie Garner	2002	30	OAK	16	11	273	1903
51	Emmitt Smith	1993	24	DAL	14	10	340	1900
52	Barry Sanders	1995	27	DET	16	12	362	1898
53	Adrian Peterson	2008	23	MIN	16	10	385	1885
54	Clinton Portis	2002	21	DEN	16	17	306	1872
55	Robert Smith	2000	28	MIN	16	10	331	1869
56	Chris Warren	1994	26	SEA	16	11	374	1868
57	Shaun Alexander	2004	27	SEA	16	20	376	1866
58	Barry Sanders	1991	23	DET	15	17	383	1855
59	Ricky Watters	1996	27	PHI	16	13	404	1855
60	Terrell Davis	1996	24	DEN	16	15	381	1848
61	Matt Forte	2014	29	CHI	16	10	368	1846
62	Edgerrin James	2005	27	IND	15	14	404	1843
63	Arian Foster	2011	25	HOU	13	12	331	1841
64	Curtis Martin	2001	28	NYJ	16	10	386	1833
65	LaDainian Tomlinson	2005	26	SDG	16	20	390	1832
66	Thurman Thomas	1990	24	BUF	16	13	320	1829
67	Emmitt Smith	1994	25	DAL	15	22	418	1825
68	Emmitt Smith	1991	22	DAL	16	13	414	1821
69	Adrian Peterson	2009	24	MIN	16	18	357	1819
70	Dorsey Levens	1997	27	GNB	16	12	382	1805
71	Marshall Faulk	1994	21	IND	16	12	366	1804
72	Charlie Garner	2000	28	SFO	16	10	326	1789
73	Marshawn Lynch	2012	26	SEA	16	12	338	1786
74	Barry Sanders	1990	22	DET	16	16	291	1784
75	LaDainian Tomlinson	2004	25	SDG	15	18	392	1776
76	Domanick Williams	2004	24	HOU	15	14	370	1776
77	Maurice Jones-Drew	2009	24	JAX	16	16	371	1765
78	Eddie George	1999	26	TEN	16	13	367	1762
79	Curtis Martin	1995	22	NWE	16	15	398	1748
80	Travis Henry	2002	24	BUF	16	14	368	1747
81	Deuce McAllister	2002	24	NOR	15	16	372	1740
82	Michael Turner	2008	26	ATL	16	17	382	1740
83	Corey Dillon	2004	30	NWE	15	13	360	1738
84	Ahman Green	2000	23	GNB	16	13	336	1734
85	Clinton Portis	2005	24	WAS	16	11	382	1732
86	Shaun Alexander	2003	26	SEA	16	16	368	1730
87	Ricky Williams	2003	26	MIA	16	10	442	1723
88	Willie Parker	2006	26	PIT	16	16	368	1716
89	Matt Forte	2008	23	CHI	16	12	379	1715
90	Curtis Martin	2000	27	NYJ	16	11	386	1712
91	Adrian Peterson	2015	30	MIN	16	11	357	1707
92	Ricky Watters	1995	26	PHI	16	12	399	1707
93	Barry Sanders	1996	28	DET	16	11	331	1700

The average age of this group is 25.66. Here’s a distribution graph of their ages:

The youngest players to accomplish a peak season were 21. Only Curtis Martin attained the feat after the age of 30. The peak is from age 24 to 28 – 71% of the seasons fall within this range. The decline appears to start at age 29, with the wheels falling off at age 31.

Re-Defining A Peak Season

We’re re-defining the peak season to see if it changes the distribution of ages. To do this, we’ll drop the requirements to 1,550 yards from scrimmage and eight total touchdowns. This criterion broadens our sample size to 154 seasons. The players are listed in the table below. This list was generated by Pro-Football-Reference.com:

Rk	Player	Year	Age	Tm	G	TD	Touch	YScm
1	Chris Johnson	2009	24	TEN	16	16	408	2509
2	Marshall Faulk	1999	26	STL	16	12	340	2429
3	Tiki Barber	2005	30	NYG	16	11	411	2390
4	LaDainian Tomlinson	2003	24	SDG	16	17	413	2370
5	Barry Sanders	1997	29	DET	16	14	368	2358
6	Steven Jackson	2006	23	STL	16	16	436	2334
7	LaDainian Tomlinson	2006	27	SDG	16	31	404	2323
8	Adrian Peterson	2012	27	MIN	16	13	388	2314
9	Edgerrin James	2000	22	IND	16	18	450	2303
10	Priest Holmes	2002	29	KAN	14	24	383	2287
11	Jamal Lewis	2003	24	BAL	16	14	413	2271
12	DeMarco Murray	2014	26	DAL	16	13	449	2261
13	Ahman Green	2003	26	GNB	16	20	405	2250
14	Marshall Faulk	1998	25	IND	16	10	410	2227
15	Terrell Davis	1998	26	DEN	16	23	417	2225
16	Arian Foster	2010	24	HOU	16	18	393	2220
17	Ricky Williams	2002	25	MIA	16	17	430	2216
18	Le'Veon Bell	2014	22	PIT	16	11	373	2215
19	Larry Johnson	2006	27	KAN	16	19	457	2199
20	Marshall Faulk	2000	27	STL	14	26	335	2189
21	Frank Gore	2006	23	SFO	16	9	373	2180
22	LaDainian Tomlinson	2002	23	SDG	16	15	451	2172
23	Priest Holmes	2001	28	KAN	16	10	389	2169
24	Barry Sanders	1994	26	DET	16	8	375	2166
25	Jamal Anderson	1998	26	ATL	16	16	437	2165
26	Deuce McAllister	2003	25	NOR	16	8	420	2157
27	Emmitt Smith	1995	26	DAL	16	25	439	2148
28	Marshall Faulk	2001	28	STL	14	21	343	2147
29	LeSean McCoy	2013	25	PHI	16	11	366	2146
30	Edgerrin James	1999	21	IND	16	17	431	2139
31	Thurman Thomas	1992	26	BUF	16	12	370	2113
32	Priest Holmes	2003	30	KAN	16	27	394	2110
33	Garrison Hearst	1998	27	SFO	16	9	349	2105
34	Brian Westbrook	2007	28	PHI	15	12	372	2104
35	Tiki Barber	2004	29	NYG	16	15	374	2096
36	Larry Johnson	2005	26	KAN	16	21	369	2093
37	Ray Rice	2011	24	BAL	16	15	367	2068
38	Emmitt Smith	1992	23	DAL	16	19	432	2048
39	Ray Rice	2009	22	BAL	16	8	332	2041
40	Thurman Thomas	1991	25	BUF	15	12	350	2038
41	Terrell Davis	1997	25	DEN	15	15	411	2037
42	Barry Foster	1992	24	PIT	16	11	426	2034
43	Edgerrin James	2004	26	IND	16	9	385	2031
44	Tiki Barber	2002	27	NYG	16	11	374	1984
45	Ahman Green	2001	24	GNB	16	11	366	1981
46	Jamaal Charles	2013	27	KAN	15	19	329	1980
47	Maurice Jones-Drew	2011	26	JAX	16	11	386	1980
48	Eddie George	2000	27	TEN	16	16	453	1962
49	Shaun Alexander	2005	28	SEA	16	28	385	1958
50	LaDainian Tomlinson	2007	28	SDG	16	18	375	1949
51	Curtis Martin	2004	31	NYJ	16	14	412	1942
52	Jamaal Charles	2010	24	KAN	16	8	275	1935
53	Matt Forte	2013	28	CHI	16	12	363	1933
54	Doug Martin	2012	23	TAM	16	12	368	1926
55	Brian Westbrook	2006	27	PHI	15	11	322	1916
56	Clinton Portis	2003	22	DEN	13	14	328	1905
57	Charlie Garner	2002	30	OAK	16	11	273	1903
58	Emmitt Smith	1993	24	DAL	14	10	340	1900
59	Barry Sanders	1995	27	DET	16	12	362	1898
60	Adrian Peterson	2008	23	MIN	16	10	385	1885
61	Clinton Portis	2002	21	DEN	16	17	306	1872
62	Robert Smith	2000	28	MIN	16	10	331	1869
63	Chris Warren	1994	26	SEA	16	11	374	1868
64	Lorenzo White	1992	26	HOU	16	8	322	1867
65	Shaun Alexander	2004	27	SEA	16	20	376	1866
66	Barry Sanders	1991	23	DET	15	17	383	1855
67	Ricky Watters	1996	27	PHI	16	13	404	1855
68	Ricky Watters	2000	31	SEA	16	9	341	1855
69	Terrell Davis	1996	24	DEN	16	15	381	1848
70	Matt Forte	2014	29	CHI	16	10	368	1846
71	Edgerrin James	2005	27	IND	15	14	404	1843
72	Arian Foster	2011	25	HOU	13	12	331	1841
73	Curtis Martin	2001	28	NYJ	16	10	386	1833
74	LaDainian Tomlinson	2005	26	SDG	16	20	390	1832
75	Thurman Thomas	1990	24	BUF	16	13	320	1829
76	Emmitt Smith	1994	25	DAL	15	22	418	1825
77	Emmitt Smith	1991	22	DAL	16	13	414	1821
78	Adrian Peterson	2009	24	MIN	16	18	357	1819
79	Dorsey Levens	1997	27	GNB	16	12	382	1805
80	Marshall Faulk	1994	21	IND	16	12	366	1804
81	Charlie Garner	2000	28	SFO	16	10	326	1789
82	Marshawn Lynch	2012	26	SEA	16	12	338	1786
83	Barry Sanders	1990	22	DET	16	16	291	1784
84	LaDainian Tomlinson	2004	25	SDG	15	18	392	1776
85	Domanick Williams	2004	24	HOU	15	14	370	1776
86	Jerome Bettis	1997	25	PIT	15	9	390	1775
87	Maurice Jones-Drew	2009	24	JAX	16	16	371	1765
88	Eddie George	1999	26	TEN	16	13	367	1762
89	Curtis Martin	1995	22	NWE	16	15	398	1748
90	Travis Henry	2002	24	BUF	16	14	368	1747
91	Deuce McAllister	2002	24	NOR	15	16	372	1740
92	Michael Turner	2008	26	ATL	16	17	382	1740
93	Corey Dillon	2004	30	NWE	15	13	360	1738
94	Ahman Green	2000	23	GNB	16	13	336	1734
95	Clinton Portis	2005	24	WAS	16	11	382	1732
96	Shaun Alexander	2003	26	SEA	16	16	368	1730
97	Tiki Barber	2000	25	NYG	16	9	323	1725
98	Ricky Williams	2003	26	MIA	16	10	442	1723
99	Fred Taylor	2002	26	JAX	16	8	336	1722
100	Willie Parker	2006	26	PIT	16	16	368	1716
101	Matt Forte	2008	23	CHI	16	12	379	1715
102	Curtis Martin	2000	27	NYJ	16	11	386	1712
103	Adrian Peterson	2015	30	MIN	16	11	357	1707
104	Ricky Watters	1995	26	PHI	16	12	399	1707
105	Clinton Portis	2008	27	WAS	16	9	370	1705
106	C.J. Spiller	2012	25	BUF	16	8	250	1703
107	Barry Sanders	1996	28	DET	16	11	331	1700
108	Napoleon Kaufman	1997	24	OAK	16	8	312	1697
109	Alfred Morris	2012	24	WAS	16	13	346	1690
110	Terry Allen	1992	24	MIN	16	15	315	1679
111	Marshawn Lynch	2014	28	SEA	16	17	317	1673
112	LeSean McCoy	2010	22	PHI	15	9	285	1672
113	Darren McFadden	2010	23	OAK	13	10	270	1664
114	Shaun Alexander	2001	24	SEA	16	16	353	1661
115	Steve Slaton	2008	22	HOU	16	10	318	1659
116	Mike Anderson	2000	27	DEN	16	15	320	1656
117	Peyton Hillis	2010	24	CLE	16	13	331	1654
118	Curtis Martin	1998	25	NYJ	15	9	412	1652
119	Clinton Portis	2007	26	WAS	16	11	372	1651
120	Fred Taylor	1998	22	JAX	15	17	308	1644
121	Arian Foster	2012	26	HOU	16	17	391	1641
122	Adrian Peterson	2010	25	MIN	15	13	319	1639
123	Fred Taylor	2000	24	JAX	13	14	328	1639
124	DeAngelo Williams	2008	25	CAR	16	20	295	1636
125	Shaun Alexander	2002	25	SEA	16	18	354	1635
126	Devonta Freeman	2015	23	ATL	15	14	338	1634
127	Ahman Green	2002	25	GNB	14	9	343	1633
128	Stephen Davis	2000	26	WAS	15	11	365	1631
129	LeSean McCoy	2011	23	PHI	15	20	321	1624
130	Ray Rice	2012	25	BAL	16	10	318	1621
131	Matt Forte	2010	25	CHI	16	9	288	1616
132	Ricky Watters	1998	29	SEA	16	9	371	1612
133	Chris Johnson	2010	25	TEN	16	12	360	1609
134	Adrian Peterson	2007	22	MIN	14	13	273	1609
135	Dorsey Levens	1999	29	GNB	14	10	350	1607
136	Stephen Davis	2003	29	CAR	14	8	332	1603
137	LaDainian Tomlinson	2001	22	SDG	16	10	398	1603
138	Ricky Watters	1994	25	SFO	16	11	305	1596
139	Chris Warren	1995	27	SEA	16	16	345	1593
140	LaMont Jordan	2005	27	OAK	14	11	342	1588
141	Knowshon Moreno	2013	26	DEN	16	13	301	1586
142	Natrone Means	1994	22	SDG	16	12	382	1585
143	Barry Sanders	1992	24	DET	16	10	341	1577
144	Arian Foster	2014	28	HOU	13	13	298	1573
145	Marshawn Lynch	2013	27	SEA	16	14	337	1573
146	Duce Staley	2002	27	PHI	16	8	320	1570
147	Eddie Lacy	2014	24	GNB	16	13	288	1566
148	Neal Anderson	1990	26	CHI	15	13	302	1562
149	Warrick Dunn	2000	25	TAM	16	9	292	1555
150	Jerome Bettis	1996	24	PIT	16	11	342	1553
151	Marshall Faulk	1995	22	IND	16	14	345	1553
152	Jamal Lewis	2007	28	CLE	15	11	328	1552
153	Edgerrin James	2003	25	IND	13	11	361	1551
154	Eddie George	1996	23	HOU	16	8	358	1550

The average age dropped to 25.44. Here’s a distribution graph of their ages:

The peak remains intact – however the player pool got younger. The peak is from age 24 to 27 – 63% of the peak seasons fall within this range. 89% of the peak seasons fall within age 22 to age 28. Just 4.5% of the peak seasons happened after the age of 29.

This distribution (in conjunction with our previous study) concludes that wide receivers have a longer shelf life than running backs.

What Does This Mean For 2016?

Obviously this doesn’t bode well for the NFL’s leading rusher, Adrian Peterson, who will be 31 this season. Other significant backs over the age of 30 include: Frank Gore (33), DeAngelo Williams (33), Matt Forte (31), Rashad Jennings (31), and Justin Forsett (31).

It’s also significant to note that Jamaal Charles is entering his age 30 season. Jonathan Stewart will be 29 years old this season.

It’s a smart idea to target young, talented running backs who back up older backs who are likely to struggle due to potential injuries or a regression in physical ability.

At 24 years old, Le’Veon Bell and David Johnson will be squarely in their primes.

Apex Insider Blog

Defining A Peak Season

Re-Defining A Peak Season

What Does This Mean For 2016?

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