Predicting wide receiver breakouts has become an essential part of winning fantasy football championships. Last year it was Allen Robinson who broke out and won fantasy leagues, this year I believe it will be Stefon Diggs.
College Production
Corey Coleman, Kevin White, and Sterling Shepard are all being drafted ahead of Diggs. Let’s see how the competition stacks up.
In terms of production, Sterling Shepard looks like the worst prospect. Coleman clearly had the best final season but had the lowest career market share of receiving yards. Diggs’ final season wasn’t the best but he dominated his peers in market share of receiving yards during his college career.
Amazingly, Stefon Diggs had 42% of Maryland’s receiving yards and 39% of their receiving touchdowns as a true freshman. Stunning for an 18-year-old and a great indicator of future success.
Early NFL Career
As a 22-year-old rookie, Diggs averaged 55.4 receiving yards per game and totaled 720 yards for the entire season. If we query 22-year-old rookies who averaged at least 50 receiving yards per game and totaled at least 700 for the reason, we receive an impressive list of studs.
Rk | Player | Year | Age | G | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD | Y/G |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Odell Beckham | 2014 | 22 | 12 | 130 | 91 | 1305 | 12 | 108.8 |
2 | Randy Moss | 1998 | 21 | 16 | 124 | 69 | 1313 | 17 | 82.1 |
3 | Terry Glenn | 1996 | 22 | 15 | 167 | 90 | 1132 | 6 | 75.5 |
4 | Michael Clayton | 2004 | 22 | 16 | 122 | 80 | 1193 | 7 | 74.6 |
5 | Julio Jones | 2011 | 22 | 13 | 95 | 54 | 959 | 8 | 73.8 |
6 | Mike Evans | 2014 | 21 | 15 | 122 | 68 | 1051 | 12 | 70.1 |
7 | Keenan Allen | 2013 | 21 | 15 | 105 | 71 | 1046 | 8 | 69.7 |
8 | Amari Cooper | 2015 | 21 | 16 | 130 | 72 | 1070 | 6 | 66.9 |
9 | Eddie Royal | 2008 | 22 | 15 | 129 | 91 | 980 | 5 | 65.3 |
10 | Sammy Watkins | 2014 | 21 | 16 | 128 | 65 | 982 | 6 | 61.4 |
11 | Andre Johnson | 2003 | 22 | 16 | 119 | 66 | 976 | 4 | 61 |
12 | Jeremy Shockey | 2002 | 22 | 15 | 128 | 74 | 894 | 2 | 59.6 |
13 | DeSean Jackson | 2008 | 22 | 16 | 120 | 62 | 912 | 2 | 57 |
14 | Hakeem Nicks | 2009 | 21 | 14 | 74 | 47 | 790 | 6 | 56.4 |
15 | Stefon Diggs | 2015 | 22 | 13 | 84 | 52 | 720 | 4 | 55.4 |
16 | Frank Sanders | 1995 | 22 | 16 | 109 | 52 | 883 | 2 | 55.2 |
17 | Jordan Matthews | 2014 | 22 | 16 | 103 | 67 | 872 | 8 | 54.5 |
18 | Justin Blackmon | 2012 | 22 | 16 | 132 | 64 | 865 | 5 | 54.1 |
19 | Percy Harvin | 2009 | 21 | 15 | 91 | 60 | 790 | 6 | 52.7 |
20 | Torrey Smith | 2011 | 22 | 16 | 95 | 50 | 841 | 7 | 52.6 |
21 | Santonio Holmes | 2006 | 22 | 16 | 86 | 49 | 824 | 2 | 51.5 |
22 | Jeremy Maclin | 2009 | 21 | 15 | 91 | 56 | 773 | 4 | 51.5 |
23 | Calvin Johnson | 2007 | 22 | 15 | 93 | 48 | 756 | 4 | 50.4 |
24 | Keary Colbert | 2004 | 22 | 15 | 92 | 47 | 754 | 5 | 50.3 |
25 | Josh Gordon | 2012 | 21 | 16 | 96 | 50 | 805 | 5 | 50.3 |
26 | DeAndre Hopkins | 2013 | 21 | 16 | 91 | 52 | 802 | 2 | 50.1 |
With names like Odell Beckham, Calvin Johnson, Josh Gordon, Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, and many more – it’s easy to get excited about Diggs’ future.
RotoViz’s Similarly Scores app likes Diggs’ chances of improving this season:
News From Camp
According to the Minneapolis Star-Tribune, Stefon Diggs has been “by far the most impressive offensive player” at Vikings camp.
Here’s a one handed catch from Diggs in practice:
#Vikings….holy smokes.pic.twitter.com/eq0oHdUcN3
— Kevin's Hobby (@KevsHobbies) August 3, 2016
In Summary
Diggs has the collegiate and rookie year production necessary to take a big leap forward in his second year. With an average draft position of WR44, he’s a clear value in fantasy drafts.