The Peak Age for an NFL Wide Receiver

Wide receivers continue to be a polarizing topic in fantasy leagues: 2016 proved to be the height of Zero RB discussion. Regardless of whether you believe in the strategy, wide receivers are a critical ingredient to fantasy leagues. In this article, we’re going to examine the ages of wide receivers during their “peak” seasons and ultimately decide what age wide receivers are at their best.

WR1 Production

Below are the average age, number of receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns for WR1s or the top 12 PPR receivers from this past season. Let’s begin by comparing the production from the top 12 receivers this season to the past three seasons:

Year	Age	Rec	Rec Yards	TDs	Targets	Y/T	Rec FPs
2013	26.25	95.3	1400.9	9.67	158.2	8.95	293.4
2014	25.58	97	1406	10.25	147.9	9.54	299.1
2015	26.58	103.7	1402.8	10.17	161.8	8.74	305.0
2016	26.67	92.4	1212.25	9.17	143.1	8.56	268.6

Compared to past seasons, the top 12 wide receivers’ production was down by any measure. Is this a concern for the future: will wide receivers’ value continue to decrease?

screen-shot-2017-02-01-at-10-58-50-am

While there was a bit of a dip in pass yards per game in 2016, it’s clear that the league is trending towards passing as frequently as ever. With passing on the rise, receiver production seems bound to regress to the mean.

Defining A Peak Season

We will define a peak season as a wide receiver with at least 80 receptions, 1,200 receiving yards, and six touchdowns. We will include each receiver to meet those requirements since 2000. The sample size at this threshold is 128 players. This list was generated by Pro-Football-Reference.com:

Rk	Player	Year	Age	G	Tgt	Rec	Yds	TD	Y/G
1	Julio Jones	2015	26	16	203	136	1871	8	116.9
2	Antonio Brown	2015	27	16	193	136	1834	10	114.6
3	Marvin Harrison	2002	30	16	205	143	1722	11	107.6
4	Antonio Brown	2014	26	16	181	129	1698	13	106.1
5	Torry Holt	2003	27	16	183	117	1696	12	106
6	Calvin Johnson	2011	26	16	158	96	1681	16	105.1
7	Josh Gordon	2013	22	14	159	87	1646	9	117.6
8	Torry Holt	2000	24	16	139	82	1635	6	102.2
9	Randy Moss	2003	26	16	172	111	1632	17	102
10	Demaryius Thomas	2014	27	16	184	111	1619	11	101.2
11	Rod Smith	2000	30	16	173	100	1602	8	100.1
12	David Boston	2001	23	16	175	98	1598	8	99.9
13	Julio Jones	2014	25	15	163	104	1593	6	106.2
14	Andre Johnson	2008	27	16	171	115	1575	8	98.4
15	Andre Johnson	2009	28	16	171	101	1569	9	98.1
16	Wes Welker	2011	30	16	173	122	1569	9	98.1
17	Steve Smith	2005	26	16	150	103	1563	12	97.7
18	Victor Cruz	2011	25	16	131	82	1536	9	96
19	Marvin Harrison	2001	29	16	164	109	1524	15	95.3
20	DeAndre Hopkins	2015	23	16	192	111	1521	11	95.1
21	Jordy Nelson	2014	29	16	151	98	1519	13	94.9
22	Reggie Wayne	2007	29	16	156	104	1510	10	94.4
23	Brandon Marshall	2012	28	16	192	118	1508	11	94.3
24	Brandon Marshall	2015	31	16	173	109	1502	14	93.9
25	Antonio Brown	2013	25	16	167	110	1499	8	93.7
26	Randy Moss	2007	30	16	160	98	1493	23	93.3
27	Calvin Johnson	2013	28	14	156	84	1492	12	106.6
28	Santana Moss	2005	26	16	134	84	1483	9	92.7
29	Isaac Bruce	2000	28	16	135	87	1471	9	91.9
30	Terrell Owens	2000	27	14	146	97	1451	13	103.6
31	Odell Beckham	2015	23	15	158	96	1450	13	96.7
32	T.Y. Hilton	2016	27	16	155	91	1448	6	90.5
33	Chad Johnson	2007	29	16	161	93	1440	8	90
34	Demaryius Thomas	2012	25	16	143	94	1434	10	89.6
35	Chad Johnson	2005	27	16	155	97	1432	9	89.5
36	Larry Fitzgerald	2008	25	16	154	96	1431	12	89.4
37	Demaryius Thomas	2013	26	16	142	92	1430	14	89.4
38	A.J. Green	2013	25	16	178	98	1426	11	89.1
39	Alshon Jeffery	2013	23	16	148	89	1421	7	88.8
40	Marvin Harrison	2000	28	16	169	102	1413	14	88.3
41	Terrell Owens	2001	28	16	155	93	1412	16	88.3
42	Larry Fitzgerald	2011	28	16	154	80	1411	8	88.2
43	Larry Fitzgerald	2007	24	15	167	100	1409	10	93.9
44	Larry Fitzgerald	2005	22	16	165	103	1409	10	88.1
45	Julio Jones	2016	27	14	129	83	1409	6	100.6
46	Muhsin Muhammad	2004	31	16	160	93	1405	16	87.8
47	Emmanuel Sanders	2014	27	16	141	101	1404	9	87.8
48	Anquan Boldin	2005	25	14	171	102	1402	7	100.1
49	Allen Robinson	2015	22	16	151	80	1400	14	87.5
50	Joe Horn	2004	32	16	153	94	1399	11	87.4
51	Roddy White	2010	29	16	179	115	1389	10	86.8
52	Dez Bryant	2012	24	16	138	92	1382	12	86.4
53	Javon Walker	2004	26	16	144	89	1382	12	86.4
54	Roddy White	2008	27	16	148	88	1382	7	86.4
55	Anquan Boldin	2003	23	16	165	101	1377	8	86.1
56	Jimmy Smith	2001	32	16	176	112	1373	8	85.8
57	Torry Holt	2004	28	16	135	94	1372	10	85.8
58	Chad Johnson	2006	28	16	152	87	1369	7	85.6
59	Odell Beckham	2016	24	16	169	101	1367	10	85.4
60	Marvin Harrison	2006	34	16	148	95	1366	12	85.4
61	Torry Holt	2001	25	16	133	81	1363	7	85.2
62	Chad Johnson	2003	25	16	154	90	1355	10	84.7
63	Terrell Owens	2007	34	15	141	81	1355	15	90.3
64	Reggie Wayne	2010	32	16	175	111	1355	6	84.7
65	Wes Welker	2012	31	16	174	118	1354	6	84.6
66	Roddy White	2012	31	16	142	92	1351	7	84.4
67	A.J. Green	2012	24	16	164	97	1350	11	84.4
68	Randy Moss	2002	25	16	185	106	1347	7	84.2
69	T.Y. Hilton	2014	25	15	131	82	1345	7	89.7
70	Rod Smith	2001	31	15	172	113	1343	11	89.5
71	Amani Toomer	2002	28	16	134	82	1343	8	83.9
72	Joe Horn	2000	28	16	151	94	1340	8	83.8
73	DeSean Jackson	2013	27	16	126	82	1332	9	83.3
74	Torry Holt	2005	29	14	163	102	1331	9	95.1
75	Hines Ward	2002	26	16	160	112	1329	12	83.1
76	Brandon Marshall	2007	23	16	170	102	1325	7	82.8
77	Mike Evans	2016	23	16	173	96	1321	12	82.6
78	Miles Austin	2009	25	16	124	81	1320	11	82.5
79	Dez Bryant	2014	26	16	136	88	1320	16	82.5
80	Jeremy Maclin	2014	26	16	143	85	1318	10	82.4
81	Ed McCaffrey	2000	32	16	149	101	1317	9	82.3
82	Jordy Nelson	2013	28	16	127	85	1314	8	82.1
83	Joe Horn	2002	30	16	149	88	1312	7	82
84	Sidney Rice	2009	23	16	121	83	1312	8	82
85	Reggie Wayne	2006	28	16	137	86	1310	9	81.9
86	Roy Williams	2006	25	16	151	82	1310	7	81.9
87	Odell Beckham	2014	22	12	130	91	1305	12	108.8
88	Demaryius Thomas	2015	28	16	177	105	1304	6	81.5
89	Derrick Mason	2003	29	16	133	95	1303	8	81.4
90	Terrell Owens	2002	29	14	159	100	1300	13	92.9
91	A.J. Green	2015	27	16	132	86	1297	10	81.1
92	Roddy White	2011	30	16	180	100	1296	8	81
93	Donald Driver	2006	31	16	173	92	1295	8	80.9
94	Brandon Marshall	2013	29	16	164	100	1295	12	80.9
95	Isaac Bruce	2004	32	16	148	89	1292	6	80.8
96	Lee Evans	2006	25	16	137	82	1292	8	80.8
97	Greg Jennings	2008	25	16	140	80	1292	9	80.8
98	Eric Moulds	2002	29	16	180	100	1292	10	80.8
99	Braylon Edwards	2007	24	16	154	80	1289	16	80.6
100	Eric Decker	2013	26	16	136	87	1288	11	80.5
101	Randall Cobb	2014	24	16	127	91	1287	12	80.4
102	Joey Galloway	2005	34	16	152	83	1287	10	80.4
103	Antonio Brown	2016	28	15	154	106	1284	12	85.6
104	Cris Carter	2000	35	16	161	96	1274	9	79.6
105	Chad Johnson	2004	26	16	170	95	1274	9	79.6
106	Marvin Harrison	2003	31	15	142	94	1272	10	84.8
107	Joe Horn	2001	29	16	156	83	1265	9	79.1
108	Brandon Marshall	2008	24	15	181	104	1265	6	84.3
109	Randy Moss	2009	32	16	137	83	1264	13	79
110	Reggie Wayne	2009	31	16	149	100	1264	10	79
111	Jordy Nelson	2016	31	16	152	97	1257	14	78.6
112	Peerless Price	2002	26	16	148	94	1252	9	78.3
113	Antonio Bryant	2008	27	16	138	83	1248	7	78
114	Drew Bennett	2004	26	16	144	80	1247	11	77.9
115	Dez Bryant	2013	25	16	159	93	1233	13	77.1
116	Randy Moss	2001	24	16	154	82	1233	10	77.1
117	Steve Smith	2009	24	16	157	107	1220	7	76.3
118	Andre Johnson	2010	29	13	138	86	1216	8	93.5
119	Larry Fitzgerald	2015	32	16	145	109	1215	9	75.9
120	Jimmy Graham	2013	27	16	142	86	1215	16	75.9
121	Calvin Johnson	2015	30	16	149	88	1214	9	75.9
122	Brandon Marshall	2011	27	16	141	81	1214	6	75.9
123	Jimmy Smith	2000	31	15	145	91	1213	8	80.9
124	Jerry Rice	2002	40	16	150	92	1211	7	75.7
125	Donald Driver	2004	29	16	137	84	1208	9	75.5
126	Laveranues Coles	2003	26	16	159	82	1204	6	75.3
127	Marques Colston	2007	24	16	143	98	1202	11	75.1
128	Roddy White	2007	26	16	137	83	1202	6	75.1

The average age of this group is 27.35. Here’s a distribution graph of their ages:

It looks like the peak of a wide receiver’s career is from 25 to 29 years old – 59.4% of the peak seasons fall within this range. It looks like receivers decline at 30 years old, with the wheels falling off at 33 years old. The amazing Jerry Rice notched the only peak season at 40 years old.

What Does This Mean For 2017?

When selecting wide receivers in the early rounds, who are expected to carry your fantasy team, I’d aim to draft wide receivers who are 29 or younger.

This study is not favorable for many aging veterans. Their ages next season are in parenthesis: Larry Fitzgerald (34), Brandon Marshall (33), Jordy Nelson (32), and Ted Ginn (32).

Julian Edelman, DeSean Jackson, and Pierre Garcon will be 31 in 2017 – heading closer to the imminent decline. Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders will turn 30, although their quarterback play is likely a bigger concern.

Studs Antonio Brown (turning 29), Dez Bryant (29), TY Hilton (28), Julio Jones (28) should remain in their prime in 2017.

It’s scary to think that Odell Beckham Jr. (25) and Mike Evans (24) are just entering their primes and could still be improving. Despite the effects of bad quarterback play, DeAndre Hopkins (25) and Allen Robinson (24) are still extremely young.

Sammy Watkins (24), Michael Thomas (24), Brandin Cooks (24), Stefon Diggs (24), and Amari Cooper (23) are still at a solid age for production and potential improvement. While they still haven’t entered their primes according to the study, the fact they accomplished impressive production at such a young age is a good indicator for their futures.

2 Responses

realfootballanalysis

While I appreciate the effort, there are some serious problems with the data you are using and your analysis.

First, much of it is simply incorrect. For instance, Jerry Rice’s best season came when he was 33 not 40 (https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/R/RiceJe00.htm). If you are going to include only half a player’s career you should not include them at all. You should either include a players entire career, or limit it to players who entered after 2000. Calvin Johnson’s best season was in 2012 and it is not included.

More importantly though, for PEAK season (singular best season) you should only include each player once. What you are showing is not peak season but instead the age of players who meet their threshold, many of them being the same. Your sample size should be much smaller something like 30 players.

Third, you should not include players who are still active in the league, as it cannot yet be know which season will be their best as they could do better next year.

You should instead title this something along the lines of, ages of WR who achieved X Y Z since 2000.

April 25, 2018 Reply

Mike Braude

Hello,

First and foremost, thanks for reading.

I think there’s a misunderstanding about the intention of the article. While I agree that perhaps it could be beneficial to exclude players who entered the league after 2000, including them increases the sample size. And you could make the same argument to exclude active players because they haven’t played their entire careers and haven’t had the opportunity to produce at an old age. That would leave us with far less data to draw conclusions from. If we want to continue to nitpick, we could also argue that it’s unfair to compare WRs who played in the early 2000’s as the league wasn’t as pass-heavy.

Calvin Johnson’s best season was not included because he did not hit the six touchdown threshold. I acknowledge that should be corrected but at the time this article was written ProFootballReference did not have the ability to sort by fantasy points so I was forced to determine arbitrary thresholds. To correct the err, this year’s study was organized by fantasy points.

The aim of this study was not to find the singular best season – which would seem to be an insignificant study if conclusions were attempted to be drawn from a small sample size of just 30 players. It seems that it would almost be random. For instance, Jerry Rice’s best season was at 33 – that doesn’t mean that other wide receivers are most likely to have their best season at 33. The aim of this study was to find out at what age wide receivers are most likely to produce or decline. A sample size of 128 players gives us enough data to draw some viable conclusions.

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Defining A Peak Season

What Does This Mean For 2017?

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