The third part of my ADP analysis series will focus on the quarterback position. Again, courtesy of the RotoViz Best Ball App, we will take a look at the Average Draft Position (ADP) from the past few weeks to give us a pulse of the fantasy football community.
Quarterbacks have often been viewed as a replaceable position, but make no mistake: their value can be league-winning. Just ask Matt Ryan owners last year or Carson Palmer and Cam Newton owners the year before, who got their league-winning quarterbacks in the double-digit rounds. Especially with the rising popularity of 2QB and Superflex leagues, this position warrants plenty of analysis.
MFL10 Quarterback ADP
Here is how quarterbacks have been drafted in MFL10s the past few weeks:
|Name||Positional ADP||Actual ADP|
|Rodgers, Aaron GBP||1||27.46|
|Brady, Tom NEP||2||37.39|
|Brees, Drew NOS||3||55.07|
|Luck, Andrew IND||4||56.32|
|Wilson, Russell SEA||5||75.94|
|Ryan, Matt ATL||6||85.15|
|Winston, Jameis TBB||7||93.34|
|Mariota, Marcus TEN||8||95.63|
|Carr, Derek OAK||9||100.5|
|Newton, Cam CAR||10||101.68|
|Cousins, Kirk WAS||11||102.49|
|Roethlisberger, Ben PIT||12||110.55|
|Prescott, Dak DAL||13||115.32|
|Stafford, Matthew DET||14||117.22|
|Rivers, Philip LAC||15||118.12|
|Dalton, Andy CIN||16||125.71|
|Taylor, Tyrod BUF||17||126.26|
|Manning, Eli NYG||18||128.98|
|Wentz, Carson PHI||19||136.74|
|Palmer, Carson ARI||20||142.34|
|Bortles, Blake JAC||21||144.22|
|Tannehill, Ryan MIA||22||146.76|
|Flacco, Joe BAL||23||148.89|
|Bradford, Sam MIN||24||162.38|
- Hard to argue with Aaron Rodgers at the top of this list. With seven top-2 finishes in fantasy points since 2009, Rodgers is aging like a fine wine. There have been some bumps in the road with Jordy Nelson’s injury last year, Davante Adams’ inconsistency, Randall Cobb’s inability to be a number one receiver, and a lack of a consistent running game, but Rodgers has still found a way to get it done. The Packers offense will once again rest on his shoulders while adding another weapon in Martellus Bennett.
- You could make an argument for Brady being the top QB off the board. The Patriots unstoppable 2016 offense returns all starters except Bennett and added their most dangerous outside weapon since Randy Moss in Brandin Cooks. The rich get richer in New England, and anything less than 40 touchdowns would be an upset for Brady this year.
- Plenty of questions surround Andrew Luck. He’s got two top-4 finishes in the past three years, but just how much can he keep dragging this offense on his shoulders? TY Hilton is an obvious stud, but time is running out for Donte Moncrief and everyone else behind them on this offense is either an aging journeyman, role player or draft bust (looking at you, Philip Dorsett). It’s concerning that Luck has yet to even begin throwing since his shoulder surgery and his doubtful role in the entire preseason process. All things considered, his ADP should probably be bumped below Russell Wilson and maybe Matt Ryan as well.
- After injuries sapped Wilson of his rushing effectiveness and his elusiveness behind an awful offensive line, he was one of the bigger 2016 disappointments. Fully injured with a healthy Jimmy Graham and stud Doug Baldwin, he should be back to his pre-2016 form. Throw in a very easy schedule, the possible emergences of deep threats Paul Richardson and Tyler Lockett and a possible resurgent Eddie Lacy, and Wilson is a fantastic post-hype sleeper.
- Sandwiching Jameis Winston in ADP is Matt Ryan and Marcus Mariota. After an unbelievable 2016, drafters are treading lightly following the departure of Kyle Shanahan – only time will tell how much of a difference he makes. Mariota, forever the darling of the fantasy football community, is on everyone’s sleeper list. Forgotten in these narratives is Jameis Winston, who has shown aggression and promise with very limited weapons in his first two years in the league. After opposing defenses locked onto Mike Evans the second half of the year, the Bucs drafted OJ Howard and signed DeSean Jackson to open things up. With uncertainty in the backfield and red-zone weapons in the passing game, Winston has a good chance to improve on his 4,090 yards and 28 touchdowns.
- Derek Carr was a better real-life QB than fantasy QB last year, and I believe his hype is getting a little out of control. 13th in points per game, 14th in passing yards and only adding the ever-inconsistent Jared Cook to improve the passing game? There are a lot of fantasy QBs I would prefer over him. His lack of weapons is pretty worrisome:
- Drafters are having similar worries about last year’s QB5 Kirk Cousins as they are about Matt Ryan: losing coach Sean McVay as well as playmakers Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson. Can Jamison Crowder pick up the slack with increased volume? Will Jordan Reed stay healthy? Can Terrelle Pryor keep growing as a WR? These questions have pushed his ADP down to QB12. He could end up being a solid bargain, although I doubt he approaches his 2016 heights.
- Behind an elite offensive line, running game, and 282 rush yards and six rushing touchdowns, Dak Prescott was last year’s QB6. Especially with Zeke’s uncertainty, Prescott could he asked to take on a larger role on offense. Is a sophomore slump looming? If nothing else, his late-season chemistry with Dez Bryant is cause for hope:
- Here we start to hit the “late-round QB” sweet spot. Last year’s QB7, not much has changed for Matthew Stafford besides replacing Anquan Boldin with promising rookie Kenny Golloday. With Eric Ebron primed for a breakout, Golden Tate perennially undervalued and passing game weapons out of the backfield, Stafford should provide a high floor, even if he isn’t going to win you many weeks.
- Philip Rivers and Andy Dalton are both QBs who suffered through questionable offensive line play and a near-complete depletion of weapons in 2016 and are both fantastic post-hype sleeper candidates. If Rivers can stave off his usual 2nd-half wane in efficiency and Dalton can come back to his 2015 form with a healthy AJ Green, Tyler Eifert, and new toys Joe Mixon and John Ross, they both provide top-8 ceilings at the QB position.
- Due to a fantastic 580 rushing yards and 6 touchdowns, Tyrod managed a No. 8 out of QBs despite finishing 25th in pass attempts. On what will remain a rush-heavy offense his ceiling is very limited, but a healthy Sammy Watkins will help solidify Taylor’s high floor.
- A 2015 league-winner, Carson Palmer’s 2016 started off pretty terribly. For various reasons, John Brown and Michael Floyd completely flopped as David Johnson put the offense on his back. But unlike previous seasons, Palmer actually finished the year playing his best football. He probably won’t come close to his 2015 QB5 finish where he threw for 4,671 yards and 35 touchdowns, but he has plenty of appeal as a high-end streamer at his draft price.