Apex Insider Blog

With the increasing popularity of dynasty fantasy football leagues, player age has become an even more important variable. While some players can fend off father time for an impressive amount of time (we’re looking at you, Tom Brady), most players tend to have similar timelines. Age can help us make knowledgeable predictions as to when a player will improve or regress.

Defining A Peak Season

To start this study, we must define a peak season for an NFL running back. In 2017, Christian McCaffery finished as the 10th best running back, scoring 229.6 PPR fantasy points. We’ll round up from there and include all running backs who finished with at least 230 PPR fantasy points since 2000. This gives us a sample size of 150. The list includes all individual running back seasons to meet the requirements and was generated by Pro-Football-Reference.com:

Player	Year	Age	Tm	G	PPR	Touch	YScm	TD
LaDainian Tomlinson	2006	27	SDG	16	481.1	404	2323	28
Marshall Faulk	2000	27	STL	14	459.9	335	2189	18
Priest Holmes	2003	30	KAN	16	446	394	2110	27
LaDainian Tomlinson	2003	24	SDG	16	441.8	413	2370	13
Priest Holmes	2002	29	KAN	14	441.7	383	2287	21
Marshall Faulk	2001	28	STL	14	422.7	343	2147	12
Steven Jackson	2006	23	STL	16	415.4	436	2334	13
David Johnson	2016	25	ARI	16	407.8	373	2118	16
Edgerrin James	2000	22	IND	16	398.3	450	2303	13
Chris Johnson	2009	24	TEN	16	395.9	408	2509	14
Arian Foster	2010	24	HOU	16	393	393	2220	16
Ahman Green	2003	26	GNB	16	388	405	2250	15
Todd Gurley	2017	23	LAR	15	383.3	343	2093	13
LaDainian Tomlinson	2002	23	SDG	16	383.2	451	2172	14
Jamaal Charles	2013	27	KAN	15	378	329	1980	12
Ray Rice	2011	24	BAL	16	374.8	367	2068	12
Shaun Alexander	2005	28	SEA	16	373.8	385	1958	27
Larry Johnson	2006	27	KAN	16	372.9	457	2199	17
Le'Veon Bell	2014	22	PIT	16	370.5	373	2215	8
Brian Westbrook	2007	28	PHI	15	370.4	372	2104	7
LaDainian Tomlinson	2007	28	SDG	16	367.6	375	1949	15
LaDainian Tomlinson	2005	26	SDG	16	365.1	390	1832	18
Ricky Williams	2002	25	MIA	16	363.6	430	2216	16
Larry Johnson	2005	26	KAN	16	363.3	369	2093	20
Tiki Barber	2005	30	NYG	16	360	411	2390	9
DeMarco Murray	2014	26	DAL	16	351.1	449	2261	13
Adrian Peterson	2012	27	MIN	16	347.4	388	2314	12
Charlie Garner	2002	30	OAK	16	347.3	273	1903	7
Tiki Barber	2004	29	NYG	16	346.6	374	2096	13
Matt Forte	2014	29	CHI	16	346.6	368	1846	6
Le'Veon Bell	2017	25	PIT	15	341.6	406	1946	9
Matt Forte	2013	28	CHI	16	337.3	363	1933	9
Eddie George	2000	27	TEN	16	337.2	453	1962	14
Priest Holmes	2001	28	KAN	16	334.9	389	2169	8
LaDainian Tomlinson	2004	25	SDG	15	334.1	392	1776	17
Brian Westbrook	2006	27	PHI	15	332.6	322	1916	7
LeSean McCoy	2013	25	PHI	16	330.6	366	2146	9
LeSean McCoy	2011	23	PHI	15	329.4	321	1624	17
Jamal Lewis	2003	24	BAL	16	329.1	413	2271	14
Shaun Alexander	2002	25	SEA	16	327.5	354	1635	16
Ray Rice	2009	22	BAL	16	327.1	332	2041	7
Frank Gore	2006	23	SFO	16	327	373	2180	8
Deuce McAllister	2003	25	NOR	16	326.7	420	2157	8
Adrian Peterson	2009	24	MIN	16	325.9	357	1819	18
Domanick Williams	2004	24	HOU	15	325.6	370	1776	13
Ezekiel Elliott	2016	21	DAL	15	325.4	354	1994	15
Shaun Alexander	2004	27	SEA	16	324.6	376	1866	16
Tiki Barber	2002	27	NYG	16	324.4	374	1984	11
Maurice Jones-Drew	2009	24	JAX	16	323.5	371	1765	15
Ahman Green	2001	24	GNB	16	321.1	366	1981	9
Ahman Green	2000	23	GNB	16	318.4	336	1734	10
Le'Veon Bell	2016	24	PIT	12	317.4	336	1884	7
Curtis Martin	2004	31	NYJ	16	317.2	412	1942	12
Clinton Portis	2002	21	DEN	16	317.2	306	1872	15
Devonta Freeman	2015	23	ATL	15	316.4	338	1634	11
Alvin Kamara	2017	22	NOR	16	314.4	212	1554	8
Deuce McAllister	2002	24	NOR	15	313	372	1740	13
Doug Martin	2012	23	TAM	16	311.6	368	1926	11
Clinton Portis	2003	22	DEN	13	311.5	328	1905	14
Edgerrin James	2005	27	IND	15	310.3	404	1843	13
Curtis Martin	2000	27	NYJ	16	309.9	386	1712	9
DeAngelo Williams	2008	25	CAR	16	307.6	295	1636	18
Shaun Alexander	2003	26	SEA	16	307	368	1730	14
Matt Forte	2008	23	CHI	16	305.5	379	1715	8
Edgerrin James	2004	26	IND	16	304.1	385	2031	9
Arian Foster	2011	25	HOU	13	303.1	331	1841	10
Charlie Garner	2000	28	SFO	16	302.9	326	1789	7
Marshawn Lynch	2014	28	SEA	16	302.3	317	1673	13
Shaun Alexander	2001	24	SEA	16	302.1	353	1661	14
Arian Foster	2012	26	HOU	16	302.1	391	1641	15
Maurice Jones-Drew	2011	26	JAX	16	301	386	1980	8
Curtis Martin	2001	28	NYJ	16	299	386	1833	10
LeSean McCoy	2016	28	BUF	15	298.3	284	1623	13
Tiki Barber	2006	31	NYG	16	297.7	385	2127	5
Ricky Watters	2000	31	SEA	16	297.5	341	1855	7
LeSean McCoy	2010	22	PHI	15	297.2	285	1672	7
Peyton Hillis	2010	24	CLE	16	296.9	331	1654	11
Knowshon Moreno	2013	26	DEN	16	296.6	301	1586	10
Kareem Hunt	2017	22	KAN	16	295.2	325	1782	8
LaMont Jordan	2005	27	OAK	14	294.8	342	1588	9
DeMarco Murray	2016	28	TEN	16	293.8	346	1664	9
Willie Parker	2006	26	PIT	16	291.6	368	1716	13
Travis Henry	2002	24	BUF	16	290.7	368	1747	13
Melvin Gordon	2017	24	LAC	16	288.1	342	1581	8
Tiki Barber	2000	25	NYG	16	287.5	323	1725	8
Devonta Freeman	2016	24	ATL	16	284.1	281	1541	11
Jamaal Charles	2010	24	KAN	16	283.5	275	1935	5
Ray Rice	2012	25	BAL	16	283.1	318	1621	9
Fred Taylor	2000	24	JAX	13	279.9	328	1639	12
Michael Turner	2008	26	ATL	16	279	382	1740	17
Robert Smith	2000	28	MIN	16	278.9	331	1869	7
Frank Gore	2009	26	SFO	14	278.6	281	1526	10
Fred Taylor	2003	27	JAX	16	278.2	393	1942	6
Mark Ingram	2017	28	NOR	16	278	288	1540	12
Brian Westbrook	2004	25	PHI	13	277.5	252	1515	3
Adrian Peterson	2010	25	MIN	15	276.9	319	1639	12
Clinton Portis	2007	26	WAS	16	276.7	372	1651	11
Mike Anderson	2000	27	DEN	16	276.6	320	1656	15
Ray Rice	2010	23	BAL	16	276.6	370	1776	5
LaDainian Tomlinson	2008	29	SDG	16	276.6	344	1536	11
Thomas Jones	2008	30	NYJ	16	275.9	326	1519	13
Marshawn Lynch	2013	27	SEA	16	275.3	337	1573	12
Ricky Williams	2003	26	MIA	16	275.3	442	1723	9
Chris Johnson	2010	25	TEN	16	273.9	360	1609	11
Arian Foster	2014	28	HOU	13	273.5	298	1573	8
Clinton Portis	2005	24	WAS	16	272.9	382	1732	11
Steve Slaton	2008	22	HOU	16	272.9	318	1659	9
Eddie Lacy	2014	23	GNB	16	272.6	288	1566	9
LaDainian Tomlinson	2001	22	SDG	16	271.3	398	1603	10
Ahman Green	2002	25	GNB	14	270.3	343	1633	7
Marshawn Lynch	2012	26	SEA	16	269.6	338	1786	11
Ricky Williams	2001	24	NOR	16	269.6	373	1756	6
Darren McFadden	2010	23	OAK	13	269.4	270	1664	7
Fred Taylor	2002	26	JAX	16	268.2	336	1722	8
Edgerrin James	2003	25	IND	13	267.1	361	1551	11
Matt Forte	2010	25	CHI	16	265.6	288	1616	6
LeSean McCoy	2017	29	BUF	16	263.6	346	1586	6
Corey Dillon	2004	30	NWE	15	261.8	360	1738	12
Adrian Peterson	2015	30	MIN	16	260.7	357	1707	11
Adrian Peterson	2008	23	MIN	16	260.5	385	1885	10
Corey Dillon	2001	27	CIN	16	259.3	374	1543	10
Stephen Davis	2000	26	WAS	15	258.1	365	1631	11
Jamal Lewis	2002	23	BAL	16	257.9	355	1769	6
C.J. Spiller	2012	25	BUF	16	255.3	250	1703	6
Duce Staley	2002	27	PHI	16	255	320	1570	5
Adrian Peterson	2007	22	MIN	14	253.9	273	1609	12
Warrick Dunn	2000	25	TAM	16	252.5	292	1555	8
Alfred Morris	2012	24	WAS	16	252	346	1690	13
Clinton Portis	2008	27	WAS	16	249.5	370	1705	9
Rudi Johnson	2005	26	CIN	16	248.8	360	1548	12
Tiki Barber	2003	28	NYG	16	247.7	347	1677	2
Jamal Lewis	2007	28	CLE	15	247.2	328	1552	9
Justin Forsett	2014	29	BAL	16	246.9	279	1529	8
Steven Jackson	2009	26	STL	15	246.8	375	1738	4
Ahmad Bradshaw	2010	24	NYG	16	244.9	323	1549	8
Steven Jackson	2010	27	STL	16	243.4	376	1624	6
Corey Dillon	2002	28	CIN	16	240.9	357	1609	7
Jamaal Charles	2012	26	KAN	16	239.5	320	1745	5
Reggie Bush	2013	28	DET	14	239.2	277	1512	4
Frank Gore	2007	24	SFO	15	238.8	313	1538	5
Ladell Betts	2006	27	WAS	16	236.9	300	1599	4
Rudi Johnson	2004	25	CIN	16	236.8	376	1538	12
Clinton Portis	2004	23	WAS	15	236.6	383	1550	5
Travis Henry	2003	25	BUF	15	236.4	359	1514	10
Maurice Jones-Drew	2010	25	JAX	14	236.1	333	1641	5
Ryan Mathews	2011	24	SDG	14	235.6	272	1546	6
Michael Bennett	2002	24	MIN	16	233.7	292	1647	5
Doug Martin	2015	26	TAM	16	232.3	321	1673	6
Michael Turner	2011	29	ATL	16	230.8	318	1508	11
Jordan Howard	2016	22	CHI	15	230.1	281	1611	6

The average age of this cohort is 25.63. Below is a distribution graph of the ages of the peak seasons.

The youngest players to accomplish a peak season were 21 – Clinton Portis and Ezekiel Elliott. The oldest players to accomplish the feat were 31 – Curtis Martin, Tiki Barber, and Ricky Watters. The peak is from ages 23 to 28, as an incredible 80.7 percent of the seasons fall within this range.

While 12 percent of the peak seasons have taken place at age 28, just 4.7 percent have taken place at age 29 – this appears to be where the decline starts. From there, it’s only a matter of time – as none of the peak seasons have taken place after age 31.

It’s worth noting that 11 running backs achieved a peak season at 22 years old and 15 at 23 years old, compared to just seven at 29 years old and six at 30. This shows that a running back is more likely to have a peak season early in his career at 22 or 23 than at the end of his career, at 29 or 30.

This distribution confirms with our previous studies that wide receivers have a longer shelf life than running backs. We’ll be updating our wide receiver study again later this offseason.

What Does This Mean For 2018?

Last season DeMarco Murray hit the exact wall that this distribution portrays – hitting a peak season at 28 and busting as a 29-year-old. On the other hand, LeSean McCoy showed no signs of slowing down last season – turning in a peak season at age 29.

Young studs Todd Gurley (24 in 2018), Ezekiel Elliott (23), Alvin Kamara (23), Kareem Hunt (23), Leonard Fournette (23), Dalvin Cook (23), Kenyan Drake (24), Jordan Howard (24), Alex Collins (24), Derrick Henry (24), and Christian McCaffrey (22) have nothing to worry about. Especially for the rookies, an extra year under their belts should help them adjust to the speed of the NFL game and could lead to an improvement in their sophomore campaigns.

In the heart of their primes, there should be no age concerns about Jay Ajayi (25), Melvin Gordon (25), Le’Veon Bell (26), Devonta Freeman (26), and David Johnson (27).

Getting near the decline age, there should be some hesitance regarding Dion Lewis (28), Carlos Hyde (28), and Mark Ingram (29) next season. Their draft position will determine whether they are worthwhile investments.

Although he pushed back father time last season, LeSean McCoy (30) is a player that will be nearing a decline soon. The Bills have rode him heavily again and his yards per carry dropped from 5.4 to 4.0 last season. Just 6 percent of the peak seasons have taken place in a running back’s age 30 season or later. Currently being selected 10th overall on Fantasy Football Calculator, I’ll let someone else take the risk.

Players like Frank Gore (35), Matt Forte (33), Danny Woodhead (33), Adrian Peterson (33), Marshawn Lynch (32), and LeGarrette Blount (32) are all risky bets. This study shows that there is very limited upside for players who are at least 32. Each of the players above would likely need to fall into a high volume situation to become a league-winning difference maker.