Apex Insider Blog

With the increasing popularity of dynasty fantasy football leagues, player age has become an even more important variable. While some players can fend off father time for an impressive amount of time (we’re looking at you, Tom Brady), most players tend to have similar timelines. Age can help us make knowledgeable predictions as to when a player will improve or regress.

Defining A Peak Season

To start this study, we must define a peak season for an NFL running back. In 2017, Christian McCaffery finished as the 10th best running back, scoring 229.6 PPR fantasy points. We’ll round up from there and include all running backs who finished with at least 230 PPR fantasy points since 2000. This gives us a sample size of 150. The list includes all individual running back seasons to meet the requirements and was generated by Pro-Football-Reference.com:

The average age of this cohort is 25.63. Below is a distribution graph of the ages of the peak seasons.

The youngest players to accomplish a peak season were 21 – Clinton Portis and Ezekiel Elliott. The oldest players to accomplish the feat were 31 – Curtis Martin, Tiki Barber, and Ricky Watters. The peak is from ages 23 to 28, as an incredible 80.7 percent of the seasons fall within this range.

While 12 percent of the peak seasons have taken place at age 28, just 4.7 percent have taken place at age 29 – this appears to be where the decline starts. From there, it’s only a matter of time – as none of the peak seasons have taken place after age 31.

It’s worth noting that 11 running backs achieved a peak season at 22 years old and 15 at 23 years old, compared to just seven at 29 years old and six at 30. This shows that a running back is more likely to have a peak season early in his career at 22 or 23 than at the end of his career, at 29 or 30.

This distribution confirms with our previous studies that wide receivers have a longer shelf life than running backs. We’ll be updating our wide receiver study again later this offseason.

What Does This Mean For 2018?

Last season DeMarco Murray hit the exact wall that this distribution portrays – hitting a peak season at 28 and busting as a 29-year-old. On the other hand, LeSean McCoy showed no signs of slowing down last season – turning in a peak season at age 29.

Young studs Todd Gurley (24 in 2018), Ezekiel Elliott (23), Alvin Kamara (23), Kareem Hunt (23), Leonard Fournette (23), Dalvin Cook (23), Kenyan Drake (24), Jordan Howard (24), Alex Collins (24), Derrick Henry (24), and Christian McCaffrey (22) have nothing to worry about. Especially for the rookies, an extra year under their belts should help them adjust to the speed of the NFL game and could lead to an improvement in their sophomore campaigns.

In the heart of their primes, there should be no age concerns about Jay Ajayi (25), Melvin Gordon (25), Le’Veon Bell (26), Devonta Freeman (26), and David Johnson (27).

Getting near the decline age, there should be some hesitance regarding Dion Lewis (28), Carlos Hyde (28), and Mark Ingram (29) next season. Their draft position will determine whether they are worthwhile investments.

Although he pushed back father time last season, LeSean McCoy (30) is a player that will be nearing a decline soon. The Bills have rode him heavily again and his yards per carry dropped from 5.4 to 4.0 last season. Just 6 percent of the peak seasons have taken place in a running back’s age 30 season or later. Currently being selected 10th overall on Fantasy Football Calculator, I’ll let someone else take the risk.

Players like Frank Gore (35), Matt Forte (33), Danny Woodhead (33), Adrian Peterson (33), Marshawn Lynch (32), and LeGarrette Blount (32) are all risky bets. This study shows that there is very limited upside for players who are at least 32. Each of the players above would likely need to fall into a high volume situation to become a league-winning difference maker.