Apex Insider Blog

With the rising popularity of dynasty fantasy football leagues, player age has become an increasingly important variable. While some players can fend off father time for an impressive amount of time (for instance, Jerry Rice), most players at the same position tend to have similar timelines. The player’s age can help us make knowledgeable predictions as to whether a player will improve or regress in the following season.

Defining A Peak Season

To start this study, we must define a peak season for an NFL wide receiver. In 2017, Marvin Jones finished as the 11th wide receiver, scoring 225.1 PPR fantasy points. For the purpose of the study, we will include all wide receivers who finished with at least 225 PPR fantasy points since 2000, which gives us a sample size of 291 players. The list below includes all individual wide receiver seasons to meet the criteria since 2000 and was generated by Pro-Football-Reference.com:

Player	Year	Age	Tm	G	PPR	Rec	Yds	TD
Randy Moss*	2007	30	NWE	16	385.3	98	1493	23
Marvin Harrison*	2002	30	IND	16	384.2	143	1722	11
Antonio Brown	2015	27	PIT	16	382.2	136	1834	10
Antonio Brown	2014	26	PIT	16	380.9	129	1698	13
Randy Moss*	2003	26	MIN	16	377	111	1632	17
Julio Jones	2015	26	ATL	16	369.1	136	1871	8
Calvin Johnson	2011	26	DET	16	360.2	96	1681	16
Torry Holt	2003	27	STL	16	358.1	117	1696	12
Marvin Harrison*	2001	29	IND	16	351.7	109	1524	15
Calvin Johnson	2012	27	DET	16	342.4	122	1964	5
Demaryius Thomas	2014	27	DEN	16	340.9	111	1619	11
Brandon Marshall	2015	31	NYJ	16	339.2	109	1502	14
Hines Ward	2002	26	PIT	16	338.1	112	1329	12
Steve Smith	2005	26	CAR	16	337.8	103	1563	12
Wes Welker	2011	30	NWE	16	334.9	122	1569	9
Brandon Marshall	2012	28	CHI	16	334.6	118	1508	11
Terrell Owens*	2001	28	SFO	16	332.3	93	1412	16
DeAndre Hopkins	2015	23	HOU	16	331.1	111	1521	11
Muhsin Muhammad	2004	31	CAR	16	328	93	1405	16
Jordy Nelson	2014	29	GNB	16	327.9	98	1519	13
Marvin Harrison*	2000	28	IND	16	325.3	102	1413	14
Rod Smith	2000	30	DEN	16	323.1	100	1602	8
Terrell Owens*	2002	29	SFO	14	321.9	100	1300	13
Andre Johnson	2008	27	HOU	16	321.5	115	1575	8
Terrell Owens*	2000	27	SFO	14	320.2	97	1451	13
Odell Beckham	2015	23	NYG	15	319.3	96	1450	13
Demaryius Thomas	2013	26	DEN	16	319	92	1430	14
Roddy White	2010	29	ATL	16	317.2	115	1389	10
Rod Smith	2001	31	DEN	15	317	113	1343	11
Dez Bryant	2014	26	DAL	16	316	88	1320	16
Josh Gordon	2013	22	CLE	14	314.4	87	1646	9
Andre Johnson	2009	28	HOU	16	313.9	101	1569	9
Reggie Wayne	2007	29	IND	16	312.4	104	1510	10
Randy Moss*	2000	23	MIN	16	311.2	77	1437	15
Antonio Brown	2017	29	PIT	14	310.3	101	1533	9
Larry Fitzgerald	2008	25	ARI	16	310.1	96	1431	12
DeAndre Hopkins	2017	25	HOU	15	309.8	96	1378	13
Antonio Brown	2013	25	PIT	16	308.9	110	1499	8
David Boston	2001	23	ARI	16	308.3	98	1598	8
Larry Fitzgerald	2005	22	ARI	16	308	103	1409	10
Antonio Brown	2016	28	PIT	15	307.3	106	1284	12
Terrell Owens*	2007	34	DAL	15	307	81	1355	15
A.J. Green	2013	25	CIN	16	306.6	98	1426	11
Brandon Marshall	2013	29	CHI	16	305.5	100	1295	12
Jordy Nelson	2016	31	GNB	16	304.7	97	1257	14
Mike Evans	2016	23	TAM	16	304.1	96	1321	12
Allen Robinson	2015	22	JAX	16	304	80	1400	14
Jimmy Graham	2013	27	NOR	16	303.5	86	1215	16
Calvin Johnson	2013	28	DET	14	303.2	84	1492	12
Marvin Harrison*	2006	34	IND	16	302.6	95	1366	12
Braylon Edwards	2007	24	CLE	16	301.9	80	1289	16
Joe Horn	2004	32	NOR	16	301.9	94	1399	11
Emmanuel Sanders	2014	27	DEN	16	301.8	101	1404	9
A.J. Green	2012	24	CIN	16	299.8	97	1350	11
Dez Bryant	2012	24	DAL	16	299.7	92	1382	12
Larry Fitzgerald	2007	24	ARI	15	297.9	100	1409	10
T.J. Houshmandzadeh	2007	30	CIN	16	297.7	112	1143	12
Julio Jones	2014	25	ATL	15	297.4	104	1593	6
Javon Walker	2004	26	GNB	16	297.2	89	1382	12
Odell Beckham	2016	24	NYG	16	296.6	101	1367	10
Chad Johnson	2005	27	CIN	16	296.5	97	1432	9
Jimmy Smith	2001	32	JAX	16	296	112	1373	8
Andre Johnson	2012	31	HOU	16	295.8	112	1598	4
Odell Beckham	2014	22	NYG	12	295	91	1305	12
Randall Cobb	2014	24	GNB	16	293.4	91	1287	12
Dez Bryant	2013	25	DAL	16	292.4	93	1233	13
Demaryius Thomas	2012	25	DEN	16	291.4	94	1434	10
Randy Moss*	2002	25	MIN	16	291.3	106	1347	7
Wes Welker	2012	31	NWE	16	289.4	118	1354	6
Victor Cruz	2011	25	NYG	16	288.9	82	1536	9
Eric Moulds	2002	29	BUF	16	288.9	100	1292	10
Anquan Boldin	2005	25	ARI	14	288.7	102	1402	7
Ed McCaffrey	2000	32	DEN	16	288.7	101	1317	9
Isaac Bruce	2000	28	STL	16	288.2	87	1471	9
Torry Holt	2004	28	STL	16	288.2	94	1372	10
Chad Johnson	2007	29	CIN	16	287.7	93	1440	8
Randy Moss*	2009	32	NWE	16	287.4	83	1264	13
Torry Holt	2005	29	STL	14	287.3	102	1331	9
Marvin Harrison*	2004	32	IND	16	286.3	86	1113	15
Brandon Lloyd	2010	29	DEN	16	286	77	1448	11
Anquan Boldin	2003	23	ARI	16	285.7	101	1377	8
Chad Johnson	2003	25	CIN	16	285.5	90	1355	10
Reggie Wayne	2009	31	IND	16	284.4	100	1264	10
Jordy Nelson	2011	26	GNB	16	284.3	68	1263	15
Larry Fitzgerald	2009	26	ARI	16	284.2	97	1092	13
Alshon Jeffery	2013	23	CHI	16	283.6	89	1421	7
Wes Welker	2009	28	NWE	14	283.4	123	1348	4
Marques Colston	2007	24	NOR	16	283.2	98	1202	11
Santana Moss	2005	26	WAS	16	283	84	1483	9
Terrell Owens*	2006	33	DAL	16	283	85	1180	13
Calvin Johnson	2008	23	DET	16	282	78	1331	12
Derrick Alexander	2000	29	KAN	16	281.6	78	1391	10
Reggie Wayne	2010	32	IND	16	281.5	111	1355	6
Larry Fitzgerald	2015	32	ARI	16	280.5	109	1215	9
Torry Holt	2000	24	STL	16	280.2	82	1635	6
Eric Decker	2013	26	DEN	16	279.8	87	1288	11
Andre Johnson	2013	32	HOU	16	279.7	109	1407	5
Marvin Harrison*	2003	31	IND	15	279.5	94	1272	10
Chad Johnson	2004	26	CIN	16	279.3	95	1274	9
Brandon Marshall	2007	23	DEN	16	279.2	102	1325	7
Terrell Owens*	2004	31	PHI	14	278.5	77	1200	14
Keenan Allen	2017	25	LAC	16	278.2	102	1393	6
Wes Welker	2007	26	NWE	16	277.9	112	1175	8
Miles Austin	2009	25	DAL	16	277.8	81	1320	11
Dwayne Bowe	2010	26	KAN	16	277.6	72	1162	15
Roddy White	2011	30	ATL	16	277.6	100	1296	8
Pierre Garcon	2013	27	WAS	16	277.5	113	1346	5
Hines Ward	2003	27	PIT	16	277.4	95	1163	10
Brandon Marshall	2009	25	DEN	15	276.9	101	1120	10
Jeremy Maclin	2014	26	PHI	16	276.8	85	1318	10
Joe Horn	2000	28	NOR	16	276	94	1340	8
Cris Carter*	2000	35	MIN	16	274.4	96	1274	9
Derrick Mason	2003	29	TEN	16	274.4	95	1303	8
Drew Bennett	2004	26	TEN	16	273.9	80	1247	11
T.Y. Hilton	2016	27	IND	16	273.8	91	1448	6
A.J. Green	2015	27	CIN	16	273.7	86	1297	10
Greg Jennings	2010	27	GNB	16	272.4	76	1265	12
Joey Galloway	2005	34	TAM	16	272.1	83	1287	10
Reggie Wayne	2006	28	IND	16	272	86	1310	9
Steve Smith	2009	24	NYG	16	271	107	1220	7
Randy Moss*	2001	24	MIN	16	270.3	82	1233	10
Donald Driver	2006	31	GNB	16	270.1	92	1295	8
Peerless Price	2002	26	BUF	16	269.9	94	1252	9
Torry Holt	2006	30	STL	16	269.8	93	1188	10
Reggie Wayne	2004	26	IND	16	269.6	77	1210	12
Eric Decker	2012	25	DEN	16	269.4	85	1064	13
DeSean Jackson	2013	27	PHI	16	269.4	82	1332	9
Jarvis Landry	2015	23	MIA	16	269.4	110	1157	4
Larry Fitzgerald	2011	28	ARI	16	269.1	80	1411	8
Roddy White	2012	31	ATL	16	269.1	92	1351	7
Reggie Wayne	2012	34	IND	16	269	106	1355	5
Doug Baldwin	2015	27	SEA	16	268.9	78	1069	14
Marvin Harrison*	2005	33	IND	15	268.6	82	1146	12
Roddy White	2008	27	ATL	16	267.6	88	1382	7
Demaryius Thomas	2015	28	DEN	16	267.4	105	1304	6
Chad Johnson	2006	28	CIN	16	267.3	87	1369	7
Roddy White	2009	28	ATL	16	265.5	85	1153	11
Calvin Johnson	2010	25	DET	15	265.2	77	1120	12
Steve Smith	2011	32	CAR	16	265	79	1394	7
Amani Toomer	2002	28	NYG	16	264.5	82	1343	8
Tim Brown*	2001	35	OAK	16	264.4	91	1165	9
Jordy Nelson	2013	28	GNB	16	264.4	85	1314	8
Percy Harvin	2011	23	MIN	16	264.2	87	967	6
Greg Jennings	2008	25	GNB	16	264.2	80	1292	9
Chris Chambers	2005	27	MIA	16	264	82	1118	11
Joe Horn	2001	29	NOR	16	262.9	83	1265	9
Joe Horn	2002	30	NOR	16	262.4	88	1312	7
Brandon Marshall	2008	24	DEN	15	262.1	104	1265	6
Julio Jones	2012	23	ATL	16	261.8	79	1198	10
Alshon Jeffery	2014	24	CHI	16	261.6	85	1133	10
Anquan Boldin	2008	28	ARI	12	261.5	89	1038	11
Larry Fitzgerald	2017	34	ARI	16	261.4	109	1156	6
Calvin Johnson	2015	30	DET	16	261.4	88	1214	9
Sidney Rice	2009	23	MIN	16	261.2	83	1312	8
Vincent Jackson	2012	29	TAM	16	260.4	72	1384	8
Jarvis Landry	2017	25	MIA	16	260	112	987	9
Julio Jones	2016	27	ATL	14	259.9	83	1409	6
Marty Booker	2001	25	CHI	16	259.3	100	1071	8
Jimmy Smith	2000	31	JAX	15	259.3	91	1213	8
Donald Driver	2004	29	GNB	16	259.2	84	1208	9
Steve Smith	2008	29	CAR	14	259.1	78	1421	6
Golden Tate	2014	26	DET	16	259.1	99	1331	4
T.Y. Hilton	2014	25	IND	15	258.5	82	1345	7
Michael Thomas	2017	24	NOR	16	258.5	104	1245	5
Lee Evans	2006	25	BUF	16	258.2	82	1292	8
Troy Brown	2001	30	NWE	16	258	101	1199	5
Eric Moulds	2000	27	BUF	16	258	94	1326	5
Marty Booker	2002	26	CHI	16	257.7	97	1189	6
Steve Smith	2006	27	CAR	14	257.7	83	1166	8
Torry Holt	2001	25	STL	16	257.3	81	1363	7
Muhsin Muhammad	2000	27	CAR	16	256.5	102	1183	6
Jerry Rice*	2002	40	OAK	16	256.1	92	1211	7
Tim Brown*	2000	34	OAK	16	256	76	1128	11
Michael Thomas	2016	23	NOR	15	255.7	92	1137	9
Andre Johnson	2010	29	HOU	13	255.6	86	1216	8
Victor Cruz	2012	26	NYG	16	255.2	86	1092	10
Marques Colston	2012	29	NOR	16	254.4	83	1154	10
Torry Holt	2007	31	STL	16	253.9	93	1189	7
Doug Baldwin	2016	28	SEA	16	253.6	94	1128	7
Brandin Cooks	2015	22	NOR	16	253.6	84	1138	9
Roy Williams	2006	25	DET	16	253.2	82	1310	7
Eric Decker	2015	28	NYJ	15	252.7	80	1027	12
T.J. Houshmandzadeh	2006	29	CIN	14	252.7	90	1081	9
Plaxico Burress	2002	25	PIT	16	252.5	78	1325	7
Derrick Mason	2004	30	TEN	16	252.5	96	1168	7
Julio Jones	2017	28	ATL	16	251.9	88	1444	3
Julian Edelman	2013	27	NWE	16	251.7	105	1056	6
Antonio Bryant	2008	27	TAM	16	251	83	1248	7
Laveranues Coles	2002	25	NYJ	16	250.3	89	1264	5
Michael Crabtree	2012	25	SFO	16	250.3	85	1105	9
Jerry Rice*	2001	39	OAK	16	249.9	83	1139	9
Isaac Bruce	2004	32	STL	16	249.2	89	1292	6
Hakeem Nicks	2010	22	NYG	13	249.2	79	1052	11
Wes Welker	2008	27	NWE	16	249.1	111	1165	3
Darrell Jackson	2004	26	SEA	16	248.9	87	1199	7
Mike Wallace	2010	24	PIT	16	248.6	60	1257	10
Keenan McCardell	2003	33	TAM	16	248.4	84	1174	8
DeSean Jackson	2009	23	PHI	15	248.3	62	1156	9
Steve Johnson	2010	24	BUF	16	248.3	82	1073	10
Andre Johnson	2006	25	HOU	16	248.1	103	1147	5
Santana Moss	2003	24	NYJ	16	247.2	74	1105	10
Davante Adams	2016	24	GNB	16	246.7	75	997	12
Brandin Cooks	2016	23	NOR	16	246.3	78	1173	8
Anquan Boldin	2013	33	SFO	16	246	85	1179	7
Torry Holt	2002	26	STL	16	246	91	1302	4
Kevin Johnson	2001	25	CLE	16	245.7	84	1097	9
Hines Ward	2009	33	PIT	16	245.7	95	1167	6
Mike Evans	2014	21	TAM	15	245.1	68	1051	12
Plaxico Burress	2007	30	NYG	16	244.5	70	1025	12
Jordan Reed	2015	25	WAS	14	244.2	87	952	11
Terrell Owens*	2003	30	SFO	15	244	80	1102	9
Mike Wallace	2011	25	PIT	16	244	72	1193	8
Larry Fitzgerald	2016	33	ARI	16	243.8	107	1023	6
Bobby Engram	2007	34	SEA	16	243.7	94	1147	6
Javon Walker	2006	28	DEN	16	243.7	69	1084	8
Amani Toomer	2000	26	NYG	16	243.5	78	1094	7
Michael Clayton	2004	22	TAM	16	243.3	80	1193	7
Jeremy Maclin	2015	27	KAN	15	243.2	87	1088	8
Vincent Jackson	2013	30	TAM	16	242.4	78	1224	7
Laveranues Coles	2003	26	WAS	16	242.3	82	1204	6
Larry Fitzgerald	2010	27	ARI	16	241.7	90	1137	6
Keenan McCardell	2000	30	JAX	16	241.7	94	1207	5
Mike Furrey	2006	29	DET	16	241.6	98	1086	6
Marques Colston	2011	28	NOR	14	241.3	80	1143	8
Keenan McCardell	2001	31	JAX	16	241	93	1110	6
Derrick Mason	2007	33	BAL	16	240.7	103	1087	5
Steve Smith	2003	24	CAR	16	240.2	88	1110	7
Vincent Jackson	2009	26	SDG	15	239.8	68	1167	9
Derrick Mason	2001	27	TEN	15	239.8	73	1128	9
Adam Thielen	2017	27	MIN	16	239.7	91	1276	4
Donald Driver	2005	30	GNB	16	239.4	86	1221	5
Michael Crabtree	2016	29	OAK	16	239.3	89	1003	8
Tyreek Hill	2017	23	KAN	15	239.2	75	1183	7
Brandon Marshall	2011	27	MIA	16	238.7	81	1214	6
Plaxico Burress	2005	28	NYG	16	238.4	76	1214	7
Laveranues Coles	2006	29	NYJ	16	237.2	91	1098	6
Hakeem Nicks	2011	23	NYG	15	237.2	76	1192	7
Santana Moss	2010	31	WAS	16	236.9	93	1115	6
Keyshawn Johnson	2001	29	TAM	15	236.6	106	1266	1
Terrell Owens*	2008	35	DAL	16	236.5	69	1052	10
Donald Driver	2002	27	GNB	16	236.4	70	1064	9
Larry Fitzgerald	2013	30	ARI	16	236.2	82	954	10
Curtis Conway	2001	30	SDG	16	236.1	71	1125	6
Roddy White	2007	26	ATL	16	236	83	1202	6
Koren Robinson	2002	22	SEA	16	235.6	78	1240	5
Joe Horn	2003	31	NOR	15	235.4	78	973	10
Steve Smith	2007	28	CAR	15	234.8	87	1002	7
Darrell Jackson	2003	25	SEA	16	234.7	68	1137	9
Rod Smith	2004	34	DEN	16	234.7	79	1144	7
Brandon Stokley	2004	28	IND	16	234.7	68	1077	10
Randall Cobb	2012	22	GNB	15	234.6	80	954	8
Reggie Wayne	2008	30	IND	16	234.5	82	1145	6
Santonio Holmes	2009	25	PIT	16	234.4	79	1248	5
Randy Moss*	2008	31	NWE	16	232.8	69	1008	11
Hines Ward	2005	29	PIT	15	232.5	69	975	11
Amari Cooper	2016	22	OAK	16	232.3	83	1153	5
Chad Johnson	2009	31	CIN	16	231.9	72	1047	9
Jarvis Landry	2016	24	MIA	16	231.3	94	1136	4
Michael Crabtree	2015	28	OAK	16	231.2	85	922	9
DeAndre Hopkins	2014	22	HOU	16	231	76	1210	6
Jordan Matthews	2015	23	PHI	16	230.7	85	997	8
Julian Edelman	2016	30	NWE	16	230.3	98	1106	3
Dwayne Bowe	2008	24	KAN	16	230.2	86	1022	7
Rod Smith	2005	35	DEN	16	230.2	85	1105	6
Marques Colston	2009	26	NOR	16	230	70	1074	9
Eddie Royal	2008	22	DEN	15	229.9	91	980	5
Vincent Jackson	2011	28	SDG	16	229.7	60	1106	9
Miles Austin	2010	26	DAL	16	229.4	69	1041	7
Andre Johnson	2004	23	HOU	16	229.4	79	1142	6
Anquan Boldin	2006	26	ARI	16	229.1	83	1203	4
Jeremy Maclin	2010	22	PHI	16	229	70	964	10
Lance Moore	2008	25	NOR	16	228.8	79	928	10
Nate Burleson	2004	23	MIN	16	228.5	68	1006	9
Marques Colston	2010	27	NOR	15	228.4	84	1023	7
Isaac Bruce	2002	30	STL	16	228.3	79	1075	7
Chris Chambers	2003	25	MIA	16	228.3	64	963	11
David Boston	2000	22	ARI	16	227.5	71	1156	7
Dwayne Bowe	2011	27	KAN	16	227.1	81	1159	5
Darrell Jackson	2001	23	SEA	16	227	70	1081	8
Jimmy Smith	2002	33	JAX	16	226.9	80	1027	7
A.J. Green	2017	29	CIN	16	226.8	75	1078	8
T.J. Houshmandzadeh	2005	28	CIN	14	226.8	78	956	7
Calvin Johnson	2014	29	DET	13	226.7	71	1077	8
Hines Ward	2008	32	PIT	16	226.7	81	1043	7
James Jones	2012	28	GNB	16	226.4	64	784	14
Demaryius Thomas	2016	29	DEN	16	226.3	90	1083	5
Kelvin Benjamin	2014	23	CAR	16	225.8	73	1008	9
Hines Ward	2001	25	PIT	16	225.6	94	1003	4
Jimmy Smith	2004	35	JAX	16	225.2	74	1172	6
Allen Hurns	2015	24	JAX	15	225.1	64	1031	10
Marvin Jones	2017	27	DET	16	225.1	61	1101	9

The average age of this cohort is 27.38 years old. Below is a distribution graph of the ages of the peak seasons.

The youngest player to accomplish a peak season was 21 – Mike Evans in 2014. The amazing Jerry Rice is the only player to meet the criteria over the age of 35. Rice incredibly accomplished the feat at 39 and 40 but would have also met the criteria in many other seasons (32, 33, 34, and 36 years old) had we included seasons prior to 2000. Rice falls directly into the anomaly category.

The peak appears to land from age 23 to 30, as 77 percent of the individual seasons fall within this range. A more magnified peak is in the 25 to 29 range, where 54.6 percent of the seasons reside.

There is a steady decline that takes place after the age 29 season. Special talents like Rice, Larry Fitzgerald, Terrell Owens, Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Tim Brown and Cris Carter have been able to produce at the age of 34 or older. While special players have shown the ability to be productive on the back end of their careers, it’s uncommon and the decline has proven sharp for many.

Wide receivers, on average, have longer careers than running backs. You can read about the Peak Age for Running Backs here.

What Does This Mean for the 2018 Season?

Larry Fitzgerald will be 35 years old this season – he’s proven that he prepares his body to produce in spite of his age, as the Cardinals continue to funnel him targets. Regardless, at 35, his ability will likely continue to diminish.

Jordy Nelson could have a bounce-back year with the Raiders but there is a significant risk with 33-year-old receivers – especially those who didn’t top 500 receiving yards in the previous season.

Speedsters Mike Wallace and DeSean Jackson are heading into their age 32 seasons. Both underwhelmed last season and shouldn’t be relied on heavily in fantasy.

Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, and Michael Crabtree will be 31 years old this season. Although they are each in the midst of a decline, 31-year-olds have historically shown the ability to produce at just a slightly lower rate than 30-year-olds. Thomas, Sanders, and Crabtree are risky investments but if they are guaranteed a healthy share of targets, they’ll have a higher floor and a decent opportunity to outperform their draft position.

I’m not worried about Antonio Brown heading into his age 30 season as he’s shown no signs of slowing down. Dez Bryant, on the other hand, is a bit more concerning. We’ve seen Dez’s yards per target dip to a pathetic 6.35 and he hasn’t topped 840 receiving yards in three seasons. If Dez can be acquired for cheap, he may be worth the risk but the days of paying a hefty price for him are gone.

After accomplishing peak seasons last year, both A.J. Green (30) and Julio Jones (29) should continue to be reliable assets in the short term.

Playmakers DeAndre Hopkins (26), Keenan Allen (26), Odell Beckham Jr. (26), and Michael Thomas (25) are squarely in their prime. I would not be concerned about their production from an age-related standpoint.