With the rising popularity of dynasty fantasy football leagues, player age has become an increasingly important variable. While some players can fend off father time for an impressive amount of time (for instance, Jerry Rice), most players at the same position tend to have similar timelines. The player’s age can help us make knowledgeable predictions as to whether a player will improve or regress in the following season.
Defining A Peak Season
To start this study, we must define a peak season for an NFL wide receiver. In 2017, Marvin Jones finished as the 11th wide receiver, scoring 225.1 PPR fantasy points. For the purpose of the study, we will include all wide receivers who finished with at least 225 PPR fantasy points since 2000, which gives us a sample size of 291 players. The list below includes all individual wide receiver seasons to meet the criteria since 2000 and was generated by Pro-Football-Reference.com:
Player | Year | Age | Tm | G | PPR | Rec | Yds | TD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Randy Moss* | 2007 | 30 | NWE | 16 | 385.3 | 98 | 1493 | 23 |
Marvin Harrison* | 2002 | 30 | IND | 16 | 384.2 | 143 | 1722 | 11 |
Antonio Brown | 2015 | 27 | PIT | 16 | 382.2 | 136 | 1834 | 10 |
Antonio Brown | 2014 | 26 | PIT | 16 | 380.9 | 129 | 1698 | 13 |
Randy Moss* | 2003 | 26 | MIN | 16 | 377 | 111 | 1632 | 17 |
Julio Jones | 2015 | 26 | ATL | 16 | 369.1 | 136 | 1871 | 8 |
Calvin Johnson | 2011 | 26 | DET | 16 | 360.2 | 96 | 1681 | 16 |
Torry Holt | 2003 | 27 | STL | 16 | 358.1 | 117 | 1696 | 12 |
Marvin Harrison* | 2001 | 29 | IND | 16 | 351.7 | 109 | 1524 | 15 |
Calvin Johnson | 2012 | 27 | DET | 16 | 342.4 | 122 | 1964 | 5 |
Demaryius Thomas | 2014 | 27 | DEN | 16 | 340.9 | 111 | 1619 | 11 |
Brandon Marshall | 2015 | 31 | NYJ | 16 | 339.2 | 109 | 1502 | 14 |
Hines Ward | 2002 | 26 | PIT | 16 | 338.1 | 112 | 1329 | 12 |
Steve Smith | 2005 | 26 | CAR | 16 | 337.8 | 103 | 1563 | 12 |
Wes Welker | 2011 | 30 | NWE | 16 | 334.9 | 122 | 1569 | 9 |
Brandon Marshall | 2012 | 28 | CHI | 16 | 334.6 | 118 | 1508 | 11 |
Terrell Owens* | 2001 | 28 | SFO | 16 | 332.3 | 93 | 1412 | 16 |
DeAndre Hopkins | 2015 | 23 | HOU | 16 | 331.1 | 111 | 1521 | 11 |
Muhsin Muhammad | 2004 | 31 | CAR | 16 | 328 | 93 | 1405 | 16 |
Jordy Nelson | 2014 | 29 | GNB | 16 | 327.9 | 98 | 1519 | 13 |
Marvin Harrison* | 2000 | 28 | IND | 16 | 325.3 | 102 | 1413 | 14 |
Rod Smith | 2000 | 30 | DEN | 16 | 323.1 | 100 | 1602 | 8 |
Terrell Owens* | 2002 | 29 | SFO | 14 | 321.9 | 100 | 1300 | 13 |
Andre Johnson | 2008 | 27 | HOU | 16 | 321.5 | 115 | 1575 | 8 |
Terrell Owens* | 2000 | 27 | SFO | 14 | 320.2 | 97 | 1451 | 13 |
Odell Beckham | 2015 | 23 | NYG | 15 | 319.3 | 96 | 1450 | 13 |
Demaryius Thomas | 2013 | 26 | DEN | 16 | 319 | 92 | 1430 | 14 |
Roddy White | 2010 | 29 | ATL | 16 | 317.2 | 115 | 1389 | 10 |
Rod Smith | 2001 | 31 | DEN | 15 | 317 | 113 | 1343 | 11 |
Dez Bryant | 2014 | 26 | DAL | 16 | 316 | 88 | 1320 | 16 |
Josh Gordon | 2013 | 22 | CLE | 14 | 314.4 | 87 | 1646 | 9 |
Andre Johnson | 2009 | 28 | HOU | 16 | 313.9 | 101 | 1569 | 9 |
Reggie Wayne | 2007 | 29 | IND | 16 | 312.4 | 104 | 1510 | 10 |
Randy Moss* | 2000 | 23 | MIN | 16 | 311.2 | 77 | 1437 | 15 |
Antonio Brown | 2017 | 29 | PIT | 14 | 310.3 | 101 | 1533 | 9 |
Larry Fitzgerald | 2008 | 25 | ARI | 16 | 310.1 | 96 | 1431 | 12 |
DeAndre Hopkins | 2017 | 25 | HOU | 15 | 309.8 | 96 | 1378 | 13 |
Antonio Brown | 2013 | 25 | PIT | 16 | 308.9 | 110 | 1499 | 8 |
David Boston | 2001 | 23 | ARI | 16 | 308.3 | 98 | 1598 | 8 |
Larry Fitzgerald | 2005 | 22 | ARI | 16 | 308 | 103 | 1409 | 10 |
Antonio Brown | 2016 | 28 | PIT | 15 | 307.3 | 106 | 1284 | 12 |
Terrell Owens* | 2007 | 34 | DAL | 15 | 307 | 81 | 1355 | 15 |
A.J. Green | 2013 | 25 | CIN | 16 | 306.6 | 98 | 1426 | 11 |
Brandon Marshall | 2013 | 29 | CHI | 16 | 305.5 | 100 | 1295 | 12 |
Jordy Nelson | 2016 | 31 | GNB | 16 | 304.7 | 97 | 1257 | 14 |
Mike Evans | 2016 | 23 | TAM | 16 | 304.1 | 96 | 1321 | 12 |
Allen Robinson | 2015 | 22 | JAX | 16 | 304 | 80 | 1400 | 14 |
Jimmy Graham | 2013 | 27 | NOR | 16 | 303.5 | 86 | 1215 | 16 |
Calvin Johnson | 2013 | 28 | DET | 14 | 303.2 | 84 | 1492 | 12 |
Marvin Harrison* | 2006 | 34 | IND | 16 | 302.6 | 95 | 1366 | 12 |
Braylon Edwards | 2007 | 24 | CLE | 16 | 301.9 | 80 | 1289 | 16 |
Joe Horn | 2004 | 32 | NOR | 16 | 301.9 | 94 | 1399 | 11 |
Emmanuel Sanders | 2014 | 27 | DEN | 16 | 301.8 | 101 | 1404 | 9 |
A.J. Green | 2012 | 24 | CIN | 16 | 299.8 | 97 | 1350 | 11 |
Dez Bryant | 2012 | 24 | DAL | 16 | 299.7 | 92 | 1382 | 12 |
Larry Fitzgerald | 2007 | 24 | ARI | 15 | 297.9 | 100 | 1409 | 10 |
T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 2007 | 30 | CIN | 16 | 297.7 | 112 | 1143 | 12 |
Julio Jones | 2014 | 25 | ATL | 15 | 297.4 | 104 | 1593 | 6 |
Javon Walker | 2004 | 26 | GNB | 16 | 297.2 | 89 | 1382 | 12 |
Odell Beckham | 2016 | 24 | NYG | 16 | 296.6 | 101 | 1367 | 10 |
Chad Johnson | 2005 | 27 | CIN | 16 | 296.5 | 97 | 1432 | 9 |
Jimmy Smith | 2001 | 32 | JAX | 16 | 296 | 112 | 1373 | 8 |
Andre Johnson | 2012 | 31 | HOU | 16 | 295.8 | 112 | 1598 | 4 |
Odell Beckham | 2014 | 22 | NYG | 12 | 295 | 91 | 1305 | 12 |
Randall Cobb | 2014 | 24 | GNB | 16 | 293.4 | 91 | 1287 | 12 |
Dez Bryant | 2013 | 25 | DAL | 16 | 292.4 | 93 | 1233 | 13 |
Demaryius Thomas | 2012 | 25 | DEN | 16 | 291.4 | 94 | 1434 | 10 |
Randy Moss* | 2002 | 25 | MIN | 16 | 291.3 | 106 | 1347 | 7 |
Wes Welker | 2012 | 31 | NWE | 16 | 289.4 | 118 | 1354 | 6 |
Victor Cruz | 2011 | 25 | NYG | 16 | 288.9 | 82 | 1536 | 9 |
Eric Moulds | 2002 | 29 | BUF | 16 | 288.9 | 100 | 1292 | 10 |
Anquan Boldin | 2005 | 25 | ARI | 14 | 288.7 | 102 | 1402 | 7 |
Ed McCaffrey | 2000 | 32 | DEN | 16 | 288.7 | 101 | 1317 | 9 |
Isaac Bruce | 2000 | 28 | STL | 16 | 288.2 | 87 | 1471 | 9 |
Torry Holt | 2004 | 28 | STL | 16 | 288.2 | 94 | 1372 | 10 |
Chad Johnson | 2007 | 29 | CIN | 16 | 287.7 | 93 | 1440 | 8 |
Randy Moss* | 2009 | 32 | NWE | 16 | 287.4 | 83 | 1264 | 13 |
Torry Holt | 2005 | 29 | STL | 14 | 287.3 | 102 | 1331 | 9 |
Marvin Harrison* | 2004 | 32 | IND | 16 | 286.3 | 86 | 1113 | 15 |
Brandon Lloyd | 2010 | 29 | DEN | 16 | 286 | 77 | 1448 | 11 |
Anquan Boldin | 2003 | 23 | ARI | 16 | 285.7 | 101 | 1377 | 8 |
Chad Johnson | 2003 | 25 | CIN | 16 | 285.5 | 90 | 1355 | 10 |
Reggie Wayne | 2009 | 31 | IND | 16 | 284.4 | 100 | 1264 | 10 |
Jordy Nelson | 2011 | 26 | GNB | 16 | 284.3 | 68 | 1263 | 15 |
Larry Fitzgerald | 2009 | 26 | ARI | 16 | 284.2 | 97 | 1092 | 13 |
Alshon Jeffery | 2013 | 23 | CHI | 16 | 283.6 | 89 | 1421 | 7 |
Wes Welker | 2009 | 28 | NWE | 14 | 283.4 | 123 | 1348 | 4 |
Marques Colston | 2007 | 24 | NOR | 16 | 283.2 | 98 | 1202 | 11 |
Santana Moss | 2005 | 26 | WAS | 16 | 283 | 84 | 1483 | 9 |
Terrell Owens* | 2006 | 33 | DAL | 16 | 283 | 85 | 1180 | 13 |
Calvin Johnson | 2008 | 23 | DET | 16 | 282 | 78 | 1331 | 12 |
Derrick Alexander | 2000 | 29 | KAN | 16 | 281.6 | 78 | 1391 | 10 |
Reggie Wayne | 2010 | 32 | IND | 16 | 281.5 | 111 | 1355 | 6 |
Larry Fitzgerald | 2015 | 32 | ARI | 16 | 280.5 | 109 | 1215 | 9 |
Torry Holt | 2000 | 24 | STL | 16 | 280.2 | 82 | 1635 | 6 |
Eric Decker | 2013 | 26 | DEN | 16 | 279.8 | 87 | 1288 | 11 |
Andre Johnson | 2013 | 32 | HOU | 16 | 279.7 | 109 | 1407 | 5 |
Marvin Harrison* | 2003 | 31 | IND | 15 | 279.5 | 94 | 1272 | 10 |
Chad Johnson | 2004 | 26 | CIN | 16 | 279.3 | 95 | 1274 | 9 |
Brandon Marshall | 2007 | 23 | DEN | 16 | 279.2 | 102 | 1325 | 7 |
Terrell Owens* | 2004 | 31 | PHI | 14 | 278.5 | 77 | 1200 | 14 |
Keenan Allen | 2017 | 25 | LAC | 16 | 278.2 | 102 | 1393 | 6 |
Wes Welker | 2007 | 26 | NWE | 16 | 277.9 | 112 | 1175 | 8 |
Miles Austin | 2009 | 25 | DAL | 16 | 277.8 | 81 | 1320 | 11 |
Dwayne Bowe | 2010 | 26 | KAN | 16 | 277.6 | 72 | 1162 | 15 |
Roddy White | 2011 | 30 | ATL | 16 | 277.6 | 100 | 1296 | 8 |
Pierre Garcon | 2013 | 27 | WAS | 16 | 277.5 | 113 | 1346 | 5 |
Hines Ward | 2003 | 27 | PIT | 16 | 277.4 | 95 | 1163 | 10 |
Brandon Marshall | 2009 | 25 | DEN | 15 | 276.9 | 101 | 1120 | 10 |
Jeremy Maclin | 2014 | 26 | PHI | 16 | 276.8 | 85 | 1318 | 10 |
Joe Horn | 2000 | 28 | NOR | 16 | 276 | 94 | 1340 | 8 |
Cris Carter* | 2000 | 35 | MIN | 16 | 274.4 | 96 | 1274 | 9 |
Derrick Mason | 2003 | 29 | TEN | 16 | 274.4 | 95 | 1303 | 8 |
Drew Bennett | 2004 | 26 | TEN | 16 | 273.9 | 80 | 1247 | 11 |
T.Y. Hilton | 2016 | 27 | IND | 16 | 273.8 | 91 | 1448 | 6 |
A.J. Green | 2015 | 27 | CIN | 16 | 273.7 | 86 | 1297 | 10 |
Greg Jennings | 2010 | 27 | GNB | 16 | 272.4 | 76 | 1265 | 12 |
Joey Galloway | 2005 | 34 | TAM | 16 | 272.1 | 83 | 1287 | 10 |
Reggie Wayne | 2006 | 28 | IND | 16 | 272 | 86 | 1310 | 9 |
Steve Smith | 2009 | 24 | NYG | 16 | 271 | 107 | 1220 | 7 |
Randy Moss* | 2001 | 24 | MIN | 16 | 270.3 | 82 | 1233 | 10 |
Donald Driver | 2006 | 31 | GNB | 16 | 270.1 | 92 | 1295 | 8 |
Peerless Price | 2002 | 26 | BUF | 16 | 269.9 | 94 | 1252 | 9 |
Torry Holt | 2006 | 30 | STL | 16 | 269.8 | 93 | 1188 | 10 |
Reggie Wayne | 2004 | 26 | IND | 16 | 269.6 | 77 | 1210 | 12 |
Eric Decker | 2012 | 25 | DEN | 16 | 269.4 | 85 | 1064 | 13 |
DeSean Jackson | 2013 | 27 | PHI | 16 | 269.4 | 82 | 1332 | 9 |
Jarvis Landry | 2015 | 23 | MIA | 16 | 269.4 | 110 | 1157 | 4 |
Larry Fitzgerald | 2011 | 28 | ARI | 16 | 269.1 | 80 | 1411 | 8 |
Roddy White | 2012 | 31 | ATL | 16 | 269.1 | 92 | 1351 | 7 |
Reggie Wayne | 2012 | 34 | IND | 16 | 269 | 106 | 1355 | 5 |
Doug Baldwin | 2015 | 27 | SEA | 16 | 268.9 | 78 | 1069 | 14 |
Marvin Harrison* | 2005 | 33 | IND | 15 | 268.6 | 82 | 1146 | 12 |
Roddy White | 2008 | 27 | ATL | 16 | 267.6 | 88 | 1382 | 7 |
Demaryius Thomas | 2015 | 28 | DEN | 16 | 267.4 | 105 | 1304 | 6 |
Chad Johnson | 2006 | 28 | CIN | 16 | 267.3 | 87 | 1369 | 7 |
Roddy White | 2009 | 28 | ATL | 16 | 265.5 | 85 | 1153 | 11 |
Calvin Johnson | 2010 | 25 | DET | 15 | 265.2 | 77 | 1120 | 12 |
Steve Smith | 2011 | 32 | CAR | 16 | 265 | 79 | 1394 | 7 |
Amani Toomer | 2002 | 28 | NYG | 16 | 264.5 | 82 | 1343 | 8 |
Tim Brown* | 2001 | 35 | OAK | 16 | 264.4 | 91 | 1165 | 9 |
Jordy Nelson | 2013 | 28 | GNB | 16 | 264.4 | 85 | 1314 | 8 |
Percy Harvin | 2011 | 23 | MIN | 16 | 264.2 | 87 | 967 | 6 |
Greg Jennings | 2008 | 25 | GNB | 16 | 264.2 | 80 | 1292 | 9 |
Chris Chambers | 2005 | 27 | MIA | 16 | 264 | 82 | 1118 | 11 |
Joe Horn | 2001 | 29 | NOR | 16 | 262.9 | 83 | 1265 | 9 |
Joe Horn | 2002 | 30 | NOR | 16 | 262.4 | 88 | 1312 | 7 |
Brandon Marshall | 2008 | 24 | DEN | 15 | 262.1 | 104 | 1265 | 6 |
Julio Jones | 2012 | 23 | ATL | 16 | 261.8 | 79 | 1198 | 10 |
Alshon Jeffery | 2014 | 24 | CHI | 16 | 261.6 | 85 | 1133 | 10 |
Anquan Boldin | 2008 | 28 | ARI | 12 | 261.5 | 89 | 1038 | 11 |
Larry Fitzgerald | 2017 | 34 | ARI | 16 | 261.4 | 109 | 1156 | 6 |
Calvin Johnson | 2015 | 30 | DET | 16 | 261.4 | 88 | 1214 | 9 |
Sidney Rice | 2009 | 23 | MIN | 16 | 261.2 | 83 | 1312 | 8 |
Vincent Jackson | 2012 | 29 | TAM | 16 | 260.4 | 72 | 1384 | 8 |
Jarvis Landry | 2017 | 25 | MIA | 16 | 260 | 112 | 987 | 9 |
Julio Jones | 2016 | 27 | ATL | 14 | 259.9 | 83 | 1409 | 6 |
Marty Booker | 2001 | 25 | CHI | 16 | 259.3 | 100 | 1071 | 8 |
Jimmy Smith | 2000 | 31 | JAX | 15 | 259.3 | 91 | 1213 | 8 |
Donald Driver | 2004 | 29 | GNB | 16 | 259.2 | 84 | 1208 | 9 |
Steve Smith | 2008 | 29 | CAR | 14 | 259.1 | 78 | 1421 | 6 |
Golden Tate | 2014 | 26 | DET | 16 | 259.1 | 99 | 1331 | 4 |
T.Y. Hilton | 2014 | 25 | IND | 15 | 258.5 | 82 | 1345 | 7 |
Michael Thomas | 2017 | 24 | NOR | 16 | 258.5 | 104 | 1245 | 5 |
Lee Evans | 2006 | 25 | BUF | 16 | 258.2 | 82 | 1292 | 8 |
Troy Brown | 2001 | 30 | NWE | 16 | 258 | 101 | 1199 | 5 |
Eric Moulds | 2000 | 27 | BUF | 16 | 258 | 94 | 1326 | 5 |
Marty Booker | 2002 | 26 | CHI | 16 | 257.7 | 97 | 1189 | 6 |
Steve Smith | 2006 | 27 | CAR | 14 | 257.7 | 83 | 1166 | 8 |
Torry Holt | 2001 | 25 | STL | 16 | 257.3 | 81 | 1363 | 7 |
Muhsin Muhammad | 2000 | 27 | CAR | 16 | 256.5 | 102 | 1183 | 6 |
Jerry Rice* | 2002 | 40 | OAK | 16 | 256.1 | 92 | 1211 | 7 |
Tim Brown* | 2000 | 34 | OAK | 16 | 256 | 76 | 1128 | 11 |
Michael Thomas | 2016 | 23 | NOR | 15 | 255.7 | 92 | 1137 | 9 |
Andre Johnson | 2010 | 29 | HOU | 13 | 255.6 | 86 | 1216 | 8 |
Victor Cruz | 2012 | 26 | NYG | 16 | 255.2 | 86 | 1092 | 10 |
Marques Colston | 2012 | 29 | NOR | 16 | 254.4 | 83 | 1154 | 10 |
Torry Holt | 2007 | 31 | STL | 16 | 253.9 | 93 | 1189 | 7 |
Doug Baldwin | 2016 | 28 | SEA | 16 | 253.6 | 94 | 1128 | 7 |
Brandin Cooks | 2015 | 22 | NOR | 16 | 253.6 | 84 | 1138 | 9 |
Roy Williams | 2006 | 25 | DET | 16 | 253.2 | 82 | 1310 | 7 |
Eric Decker | 2015 | 28 | NYJ | 15 | 252.7 | 80 | 1027 | 12 |
T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 2006 | 29 | CIN | 14 | 252.7 | 90 | 1081 | 9 |
Plaxico Burress | 2002 | 25 | PIT | 16 | 252.5 | 78 | 1325 | 7 |
Derrick Mason | 2004 | 30 | TEN | 16 | 252.5 | 96 | 1168 | 7 |
Julio Jones | 2017 | 28 | ATL | 16 | 251.9 | 88 | 1444 | 3 |
Julian Edelman | 2013 | 27 | NWE | 16 | 251.7 | 105 | 1056 | 6 |
Antonio Bryant | 2008 | 27 | TAM | 16 | 251 | 83 | 1248 | 7 |
Laveranues Coles | 2002 | 25 | NYJ | 16 | 250.3 | 89 | 1264 | 5 |
Michael Crabtree | 2012 | 25 | SFO | 16 | 250.3 | 85 | 1105 | 9 |
Jerry Rice* | 2001 | 39 | OAK | 16 | 249.9 | 83 | 1139 | 9 |
Isaac Bruce | 2004 | 32 | STL | 16 | 249.2 | 89 | 1292 | 6 |
Hakeem Nicks | 2010 | 22 | NYG | 13 | 249.2 | 79 | 1052 | 11 |
Wes Welker | 2008 | 27 | NWE | 16 | 249.1 | 111 | 1165 | 3 |
Darrell Jackson | 2004 | 26 | SEA | 16 | 248.9 | 87 | 1199 | 7 |
Mike Wallace | 2010 | 24 | PIT | 16 | 248.6 | 60 | 1257 | 10 |
Keenan McCardell | 2003 | 33 | TAM | 16 | 248.4 | 84 | 1174 | 8 |
DeSean Jackson | 2009 | 23 | PHI | 15 | 248.3 | 62 | 1156 | 9 |
Steve Johnson | 2010 | 24 | BUF | 16 | 248.3 | 82 | 1073 | 10 |
Andre Johnson | 2006 | 25 | HOU | 16 | 248.1 | 103 | 1147 | 5 |
Santana Moss | 2003 | 24 | NYJ | 16 | 247.2 | 74 | 1105 | 10 |
Davante Adams | 2016 | 24 | GNB | 16 | 246.7 | 75 | 997 | 12 |
Brandin Cooks | 2016 | 23 | NOR | 16 | 246.3 | 78 | 1173 | 8 |
Anquan Boldin | 2013 | 33 | SFO | 16 | 246 | 85 | 1179 | 7 |
Torry Holt | 2002 | 26 | STL | 16 | 246 | 91 | 1302 | 4 |
Kevin Johnson | 2001 | 25 | CLE | 16 | 245.7 | 84 | 1097 | 9 |
Hines Ward | 2009 | 33 | PIT | 16 | 245.7 | 95 | 1167 | 6 |
Mike Evans | 2014 | 21 | TAM | 15 | 245.1 | 68 | 1051 | 12 |
Plaxico Burress | 2007 | 30 | NYG | 16 | 244.5 | 70 | 1025 | 12 |
Jordan Reed | 2015 | 25 | WAS | 14 | 244.2 | 87 | 952 | 11 |
Terrell Owens* | 2003 | 30 | SFO | 15 | 244 | 80 | 1102 | 9 |
Mike Wallace | 2011 | 25 | PIT | 16 | 244 | 72 | 1193 | 8 |
Larry Fitzgerald | 2016 | 33 | ARI | 16 | 243.8 | 107 | 1023 | 6 |
Bobby Engram | 2007 | 34 | SEA | 16 | 243.7 | 94 | 1147 | 6 |
Javon Walker | 2006 | 28 | DEN | 16 | 243.7 | 69 | 1084 | 8 |
Amani Toomer | 2000 | 26 | NYG | 16 | 243.5 | 78 | 1094 | 7 |
Michael Clayton | 2004 | 22 | TAM | 16 | 243.3 | 80 | 1193 | 7 |
Jeremy Maclin | 2015 | 27 | KAN | 15 | 243.2 | 87 | 1088 | 8 |
Vincent Jackson | 2013 | 30 | TAM | 16 | 242.4 | 78 | 1224 | 7 |
Laveranues Coles | 2003 | 26 | WAS | 16 | 242.3 | 82 | 1204 | 6 |
Larry Fitzgerald | 2010 | 27 | ARI | 16 | 241.7 | 90 | 1137 | 6 |
Keenan McCardell | 2000 | 30 | JAX | 16 | 241.7 | 94 | 1207 | 5 |
Mike Furrey | 2006 | 29 | DET | 16 | 241.6 | 98 | 1086 | 6 |
Marques Colston | 2011 | 28 | NOR | 14 | 241.3 | 80 | 1143 | 8 |
Keenan McCardell | 2001 | 31 | JAX | 16 | 241 | 93 | 1110 | 6 |
Derrick Mason | 2007 | 33 | BAL | 16 | 240.7 | 103 | 1087 | 5 |
Steve Smith | 2003 | 24 | CAR | 16 | 240.2 | 88 | 1110 | 7 |
Vincent Jackson | 2009 | 26 | SDG | 15 | 239.8 | 68 | 1167 | 9 |
Derrick Mason | 2001 | 27 | TEN | 15 | 239.8 | 73 | 1128 | 9 |
Adam Thielen | 2017 | 27 | MIN | 16 | 239.7 | 91 | 1276 | 4 |
Donald Driver | 2005 | 30 | GNB | 16 | 239.4 | 86 | 1221 | 5 |
Michael Crabtree | 2016 | 29 | OAK | 16 | 239.3 | 89 | 1003 | 8 |
Tyreek Hill | 2017 | 23 | KAN | 15 | 239.2 | 75 | 1183 | 7 |
Brandon Marshall | 2011 | 27 | MIA | 16 | 238.7 | 81 | 1214 | 6 |
Plaxico Burress | 2005 | 28 | NYG | 16 | 238.4 | 76 | 1214 | 7 |
Laveranues Coles | 2006 | 29 | NYJ | 16 | 237.2 | 91 | 1098 | 6 |
Hakeem Nicks | 2011 | 23 | NYG | 15 | 237.2 | 76 | 1192 | 7 |
Santana Moss | 2010 | 31 | WAS | 16 | 236.9 | 93 | 1115 | 6 |
Keyshawn Johnson | 2001 | 29 | TAM | 15 | 236.6 | 106 | 1266 | 1 |
Terrell Owens* | 2008 | 35 | DAL | 16 | 236.5 | 69 | 1052 | 10 |
Donald Driver | 2002 | 27 | GNB | 16 | 236.4 | 70 | 1064 | 9 |
Larry Fitzgerald | 2013 | 30 | ARI | 16 | 236.2 | 82 | 954 | 10 |
Curtis Conway | 2001 | 30 | SDG | 16 | 236.1 | 71 | 1125 | 6 |
Roddy White | 2007 | 26 | ATL | 16 | 236 | 83 | 1202 | 6 |
Koren Robinson | 2002 | 22 | SEA | 16 | 235.6 | 78 | 1240 | 5 |
Joe Horn | 2003 | 31 | NOR | 15 | 235.4 | 78 | 973 | 10 |
Steve Smith | 2007 | 28 | CAR | 15 | 234.8 | 87 | 1002 | 7 |
Darrell Jackson | 2003 | 25 | SEA | 16 | 234.7 | 68 | 1137 | 9 |
Rod Smith | 2004 | 34 | DEN | 16 | 234.7 | 79 | 1144 | 7 |
Brandon Stokley | 2004 | 28 | IND | 16 | 234.7 | 68 | 1077 | 10 |
Randall Cobb | 2012 | 22 | GNB | 15 | 234.6 | 80 | 954 | 8 |
Reggie Wayne | 2008 | 30 | IND | 16 | 234.5 | 82 | 1145 | 6 |
Santonio Holmes | 2009 | 25 | PIT | 16 | 234.4 | 79 | 1248 | 5 |
Randy Moss* | 2008 | 31 | NWE | 16 | 232.8 | 69 | 1008 | 11 |
Hines Ward | 2005 | 29 | PIT | 15 | 232.5 | 69 | 975 | 11 |
Amari Cooper | 2016 | 22 | OAK | 16 | 232.3 | 83 | 1153 | 5 |
Chad Johnson | 2009 | 31 | CIN | 16 | 231.9 | 72 | 1047 | 9 |
Jarvis Landry | 2016 | 24 | MIA | 16 | 231.3 | 94 | 1136 | 4 |
Michael Crabtree | 2015 | 28 | OAK | 16 | 231.2 | 85 | 922 | 9 |
DeAndre Hopkins | 2014 | 22 | HOU | 16 | 231 | 76 | 1210 | 6 |
Jordan Matthews | 2015 | 23 | PHI | 16 | 230.7 | 85 | 997 | 8 |
Julian Edelman | 2016 | 30 | NWE | 16 | 230.3 | 98 | 1106 | 3 |
Dwayne Bowe | 2008 | 24 | KAN | 16 | 230.2 | 86 | 1022 | 7 |
Rod Smith | 2005 | 35 | DEN | 16 | 230.2 | 85 | 1105 | 6 |
Marques Colston | 2009 | 26 | NOR | 16 | 230 | 70 | 1074 | 9 |
Eddie Royal | 2008 | 22 | DEN | 15 | 229.9 | 91 | 980 | 5 |
Vincent Jackson | 2011 | 28 | SDG | 16 | 229.7 | 60 | 1106 | 9 |
Miles Austin | 2010 | 26 | DAL | 16 | 229.4 | 69 | 1041 | 7 |
Andre Johnson | 2004 | 23 | HOU | 16 | 229.4 | 79 | 1142 | 6 |
Anquan Boldin | 2006 | 26 | ARI | 16 | 229.1 | 83 | 1203 | 4 |
Jeremy Maclin | 2010 | 22 | PHI | 16 | 229 | 70 | 964 | 10 |
Lance Moore | 2008 | 25 | NOR | 16 | 228.8 | 79 | 928 | 10 |
Nate Burleson | 2004 | 23 | MIN | 16 | 228.5 | 68 | 1006 | 9 |
Marques Colston | 2010 | 27 | NOR | 15 | 228.4 | 84 | 1023 | 7 |
Isaac Bruce | 2002 | 30 | STL | 16 | 228.3 | 79 | 1075 | 7 |
Chris Chambers | 2003 | 25 | MIA | 16 | 228.3 | 64 | 963 | 11 |
David Boston | 2000 | 22 | ARI | 16 | 227.5 | 71 | 1156 | 7 |
Dwayne Bowe | 2011 | 27 | KAN | 16 | 227.1 | 81 | 1159 | 5 |
Darrell Jackson | 2001 | 23 | SEA | 16 | 227 | 70 | 1081 | 8 |
Jimmy Smith | 2002 | 33 | JAX | 16 | 226.9 | 80 | 1027 | 7 |
A.J. Green | 2017 | 29 | CIN | 16 | 226.8 | 75 | 1078 | 8 |
T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 2005 | 28 | CIN | 14 | 226.8 | 78 | 956 | 7 |
Calvin Johnson | 2014 | 29 | DET | 13 | 226.7 | 71 | 1077 | 8 |
Hines Ward | 2008 | 32 | PIT | 16 | 226.7 | 81 | 1043 | 7 |
James Jones | 2012 | 28 | GNB | 16 | 226.4 | 64 | 784 | 14 |
Demaryius Thomas | 2016 | 29 | DEN | 16 | 226.3 | 90 | 1083 | 5 |
Kelvin Benjamin | 2014 | 23 | CAR | 16 | 225.8 | 73 | 1008 | 9 |
Hines Ward | 2001 | 25 | PIT | 16 | 225.6 | 94 | 1003 | 4 |
Jimmy Smith | 2004 | 35 | JAX | 16 | 225.2 | 74 | 1172 | 6 |
Allen Hurns | 2015 | 24 | JAX | 15 | 225.1 | 64 | 1031 | 10 |
Marvin Jones | 2017 | 27 | DET | 16 | 225.1 | 61 | 1101 | 9 |
The average age of this cohort is 27.38 years old. Below is a distribution graph of the ages of the peak seasons.
The youngest player to accomplish a peak season was 21 – Mike Evans in 2014. The amazing Jerry Rice is the only player to meet the criteria over the age of 35. Rice incredibly accomplished the feat at 39 and 40 but would have also met the criteria in many other seasons (32, 33, 34, and 36 years old) had we included seasons prior to 2000. Rice falls directly into the anomaly category.
The peak appears to land from age 23 to 30, as 77 percent of the individual seasons fall within this range. A more magnified peak is in the 25 to 29 range, where 54.6 percent of the seasons reside.
There is a steady decline that takes place after the age 29 season. Special talents like Rice, Larry Fitzgerald, Terrell Owens, Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Tim Brown and Cris Carter have been able to produce at the age of 34 or older. While special players have shown the ability to be productive on the back end of their careers, it’s uncommon and the decline has proven sharp for many.
Wide receivers, on average, have longer careers than running backs. You can read about the Peak Age for Running Backs here.
What Does This Mean for the 2018 Season?
Larry Fitzgerald will be 35 years old this season – he’s proven that he prepares his body to produce in spite of his age, as the Cardinals continue to funnel him targets. Regardless, at 35, his ability will likely continue to diminish.
Jordy Nelson could have a bounce-back year with the Raiders but there is a significant risk with 33-year-old receivers – especially those who didn’t top 500 receiving yards in the previous season.
Speedsters Mike Wallace and DeSean Jackson are heading into their age 32 seasons. Both underwhelmed last season and shouldn’t be relied on heavily in fantasy.
Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, and Michael Crabtree will be 31 years old this season. Although they are each in the midst of a decline, 31-year-olds have historically shown the ability to produce at just a slightly lower rate than 30-year-olds. Thomas, Sanders, and Crabtree are risky investments but if they are guaranteed a healthy share of targets, they’ll have a higher floor and a decent opportunity to outperform their draft position.
I’m not worried about Antonio Brown heading into his age 30 season as he’s shown no signs of slowing down. Dez Bryant, on the other hand, is a bit more concerning. We’ve seen Dez’s yards per target dip to a pathetic 6.35 and he hasn’t topped 840 receiving yards in three seasons. If Dez can be acquired for cheap, he may be worth the risk but the days of paying a hefty price for him are gone.
After accomplishing peak seasons last year, both A.J. Green (30) and Julio Jones (29) should continue to be reliable assets in the short term.
Playmakers DeAndre Hopkins (26), Keenan Allen (26), Odell Beckham Jr. (26), and Michael Thomas (25) are squarely in their prime. I would not be concerned about their production from an age-related standpoint.