Apex Insider Blog

With the rising popularity of dynasty fantasy football leagues, player age has become an increasingly important variable. While some players can fend off father time for an impressive amount of time (for instance, Jerry Rice), most players at the same position tend to have similar timelines. The player’s age can help us make knowledgeable predictions as to whether a player will improve or regress in the following season.

Defining A Peak Season

To start this study, we must define a peak season for an NFL wide receiver. In 2017, Marvin Jones finished as the 11th wide receiver, scoring 225.1 PPR fantasy points. For the purpose of the study, we will include all wide receivers who finished with at least 225 PPR fantasy points since 2000, which gives us a sample size of 291 players. The list below includes all individual wide receiver seasons to meet the criteria since 2000 and was generated by Pro-Football-Reference.com:

The average age of this cohort is 27.38 years old. Below is a distribution graph of the ages of the peak seasons.

The youngest player to accomplish a peak season was 21 – Mike Evans in 2014. The amazing Jerry Rice is the only player to meet the criteria over the age of 35. Rice incredibly accomplished the feat at 39 and 40 but would have also met the criteria in many other seasons (32, 33, 34, and 36 years old) had we included seasons prior to 2000. Rice falls directly into the anomaly category.

The peak appears to land from age 23 to 30, as 77 percent of the individual seasons fall within this range. A more magnified peak is in the 25 to 29 range, where 54.6 percent of the seasons reside.

There is a steady decline that takes place after the age 29 season. Special talents like Rice, Larry Fitzgerald, Terrell Owens, Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Tim Brown and Cris Carter have been able to produce at the age of 34 or older. While special players have shown the ability to be productive on the back end of their careers, it’s uncommon and the decline has proven sharp for many.

Wide receivers, on average, have longer careers than running backs. You can read about the Peak Age for Running Backs here.

What Does This Mean for the 2018 Season?

Larry Fitzgerald will be 35 years old this season – he’s proven that he prepares his body to produce in spite of his age, as the Cardinals continue to funnel him targets. Regardless, at 35, his ability will likely continue to diminish.

Jordy Nelson could have a bounce-back year with the Raiders but there is a significant risk with 33-year-old receivers – especially those who didn’t top 500 receiving yards in the previous season.

Speedsters Mike Wallace and DeSean Jackson are heading into their age 32 seasons. Both underwhelmed last season and shouldn’t be relied on heavily in fantasy.

Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, and Michael Crabtree will be 31 years old this season. Although they are each in the midst of a decline, 31-year-olds have historically shown the ability to produce at just a slightly lower rate than 30-year-olds. Thomas, Sanders, and Crabtree are risky investments but if they are guaranteed a healthy share of targets, they’ll have a higher floor and a decent opportunity to outperform their draft position.

I’m not worried about Antonio Brown heading into his age 30 season as he’s shown no signs of slowing down. Dez Bryant, on the other hand, is a bit more concerning. We’ve seen Dez’s yards per target dip to a pathetic 6.35 and he hasn’t topped 840 receiving yards in three seasons. If Dez can be acquired for cheap, he may be worth the risk but the days of paying a hefty price for him are gone.

After accomplishing peak seasons last year, both A.J. Green (30) and Julio Jones (29) should continue to be reliable assets in the short term.

Playmakers DeAndre Hopkins (26), Keenan Allen (26), Odell Beckham Jr. (26), and Michael Thomas (25) are squarely in their prime. I would not be concerned about their production from an age-related standpoint.