Apex Insider Blog

Using variables like player age can give us an advantage when attempting to predict the future of a player. With dynasty leagues growing in popularity, making the correct prediction for a player’s peak is important.

Most players at the same position share similar career timelines. By examining the careers of tight ends, we can gain knowledge as to when players at the position should improve or regress. At a position that is infamous for having players need a year or two extra to transition from college to the NFL, we may find that predicting tight end peaks is different than other positions.

You can see what the peak ages are for wide receivers and running backs. We update these studies each offseason.

Defining A Peak Season

To begin the study, we must define a peak season for an NFL tight end. What is the production necessary for a tight end to consider him at the peak of his career?

Last year, only the top five tight ends scored more than 170 PPR fantasy points. Our peak seasons will include all tight end seasons that finished with at least 170 PPR fantasy points since 2000. The list includes 118 tight end seasons and was generated by the RotoViz Screener.

Player	Year	Age	Rec	TRGs	Yds	TD	PPR
Rob Gronkowski	2011	22	90	124	1327	17	330.9
Jimmy Graham	2013	27	86	142	1215	16	303.5
Travis Kelce	2018	29	103	150	1336	10	296.6
Jimmy Graham	2011	25	99	149	1310	11	296
Zach Ertz	2018	28	116	156	1163	8	280.3
Dallas Clark	2009	30	100	133	1106	10	271.7
Tony Gonzalez	2004	28	102	148	1258	7	270.3
Tony Gonzalez	2000	24	93	150	1203	9	267.3
Rob Gronkowski	2014	25	82	131	1124	12	266.4
Tony Gonzalez	2008	32	96	155	1058	10	261.8
Antonio Gates	2005	25	89	140	1101	10	259.1
George Kittle	2018	25	88	135	1377	5	256.7
Rob Gronkowski	2015	26	72	120	1176	11	255.6
Antonio Gates	2004	24	81	114	964	13	255.4
Jason Witten	2007	25	96	141	1145	7	252.5
Vernon Davis	2009	25	78	129	965	13	252.5
Jason Witten	2010	28	94	128	1002	9	248.2
Jordan Reed	2015	25	87	114	952	11	248.2
Tony Gonzalez	2007	31	99	154	1172	5	246.2
Antonio Gates	2009	29	79	114	1157	8	242.7
Delanie Walker	2015	31	94	133	1088	6	242.4
Gary Barnidge	2015	30	79	125	1043	9	237.3
Jimmy Graham	2012	26	85	135	982	9	237.2
Tony Gonzalez	2012	36	93	124	930	8	234
Jimmy Graham	2014	28	85	124	889	10	233.9
Travis Kelce	2017	28	83	122	1038	8	233.5
Jason Witten	2012	30	110	149	1039	3	231.9
Greg Olsen	2015	30	77	124	1104	7	229.4
Antonio Gates	2007	27	75	117	984	9	227.4
Rob Gronkowski	2017	28	69	105	1083	8	225.3
Eric Ebron	2018	25	66	110	750	13	224.2
Antonio Gates	2014	34	69	98	821	12	223.1
Tony Gonzalez	2003	27	71	106	916	10	222.6
Kellen Winslow	2007	24	82	148	1106	5	222.6
Brent Celek	2009	24	76	112	971	8	221.1
Travis Kelce	2016	27	85	117	1125	4	221
Jason Witten	2004	22	87	122	980	6	221
Greg Olsen	2014	29	84	123	1009	6	220.9
Martellus Bennett	2014	27	90	128	916	6	217.6
Antonio Gates	2006	26	71	120	924	9	217.4
Tony Gonzalez	2013	37	83	121	859	8	216.9
Aaron Hernandez	2011	22	79	113	910	7	216.5
Julius Thomas	2013	25	65	90	788	12	215.8
Vernon Davis	2013	29	52	84	850	13	215
Jordan Cameron	2013	25	80	118	917	7	213.7
Tony Gonzalez	2011	35	80	116	875	7	209.5
Jason Witten	2009	27	94	124	1030	2	209
Kyle Rudolph	2016	27	83	132	840	7	209
Jason Witten	2013	31	73	111	851	8	206.1
Tony Gonzalez	2009	33	83	135	867	6	205.7
Greg Olsen	2016	31	80	129	1073	3	205.3
Zach Ertz	2017	27	74	110	824	8	204.4
Tony Gonzalez	2001	25	73	118	917	6	203.6
Jason Witten	2011	29	79	117	942	5	203.2
Todd Heap	2005	25	75	114	854	7	202.4
Jason Witten	2008	26	81	121	952	4	202.3
Heath Miller	2012	30	71	101	816	8	200.6
Rob Gronkowski	2012	23	55	80	790	11	200
Dallas Clark	2008	29	77	107	848	6	197.8
Kellen Winslow	2009	26	77	126	887	5	196.4
Jeremy Shockey	2005	25	65	121	891	7	196.1
Kellen Winslow	2006	23	89	120	875	3	194.5
Jared Cook	2018	31	68	101	896	6	193.6
Jimmy Graham	2016	30	65	95	923	6	193.3
Tony Gonzalez	2006	30	73	104	900	5	193
Chris Cooley	2007	25	66	110	786	8	192.6
Benjamin Watson	2015	35	74	110	825	6	192.5
Tyler Eifert	2015	25	52	74	615	13	191.5
Todd Heap	2002	22	68	122	836	6	191.4
Heath Miller	2009	27	76	98	789	6	190.9
Brandon Pettigrew	2011	26	83	126	777	5	190.7
Greg Olsen	2013	28	73	111	816	6	190.6
Chris Cooley	2005	23	71	103	774	7	190.4
Travis Kelce	2015	26	72	103	875	5	189.5
Vernon Davis	2010	26	56	93	914	7	189.4
Dallas Clark	2007	28	58	101	616	11	188.5
Charles Clay	2013	24	69	102	759	6	188.4
Antonio Gates	2013	33	77	113	872	4	188.2
Antonio Gates	2010	30	50	65	782	10	188.2
Marcedes Lewis	2010	26	58	89	700	10	188
Delanie Walker	2016	32	65	102	800	7	187.3
Shannon Sharpe	2003	35	62	94	770	8	187
Todd Heap	2006	26	73	116	765	6	185.5
Antonio Gates	2011	31	64	88	778	7	183.8
Brandon Myers	2012	27	79	105	806	4	183.6
Zach Ertz	2016	26	78	106	816	4	183.6
Greg Olsen	2012	27	69	104	843	5	183.3
Travis Kelce	2014	25	67	87	862	5	183.2
Alge Crumpler	2005	28	65	118	877	5	182.7
Tony Gonzalez	2002	26	63	99	773	7	182.3
Alge Crumpler	2006	29	56	103	780	8	182
Vernon Davis	2011	27	67	95	792	6	181.7
Tony Gonzalez	2005	29	78	116	905	2	180.5
Chris Cooley	2010	28	77	126	851	3	180.1
Jermichael Finley	2011	24	55	92	767	8	179.7
Visanthe Shiancoe	2009	29	56	79	566	11	178.6
Delanie Walker	2017	33	74	111	807	3	178.5
Antonio Gates	2008	28	60	92	704	8	178.4
Shannon Sharpe	2000	32	67	105	810	5	178
Jason Witten	2005	23	66	89	757	6	177.7
Freddie Jones	2000	26	71	130	766	5	177.6
Dustin Keller	2011	27	65	115	815	5	176.5
Eric Johnson	2004	25	82	117	825	2	176.5
Coby Fleener	2014	26	51	92	774	8	176.4
Randy McMichael	2004	25	73	118	791	4	176.1
Jeremy Shockey	2002	22	74	127	894	2	175.4
Chris Cooley	2008	26	83	111	849	1	173.9
Evan Engram	2017	23	64	115	722	6	173.6
Brent Celek	2011	26	62	97	811	5	173.1
Jack Doyle	2017	27	80	108	690	4	173
Delanie Walker	2014	30	63	106	857	4	172.7
Zach Ertz	2015	25	75	112	853	2	172.3
Tony Gonzalez	2010	34	70	108	656	6	171.6
Cameron Brate	2016	25	57	82	660	8	171
Dennis Pitta	2016	31	86	121	729	2	170.9
Martellus Bennett	2013	26	65	94	759	5	170.9
Jordan Reed	2016	26	66	89	686	6	170.6
Jeremy Shockey	2006	26	66	115	623	7	170.3

The average age of the peak season is 27.44 years old. Below is a distribution graph of the ages of the tight end seasons.

The peak is from 25 to 28 years old, as 54.2 percent of the seasons fall within that range. As mentioned before, tight ends generally take a few years to develop. While just 16 total peak seasons took place before a tight end turns 25, 25-year-old tight ends alone account for 20 of the peak seasons.

In addition, a tight end is more likely to achieve a peak season at 30 years old than at 24 years old. We can speculate the reasoning for this but clearly, it takes some time for tight ends to develop in the NFL.

There’s certainly a gradual decline but it seems that there is a bit of a drop off at after the age 31 season. 89 percent of the peak seasons take place prior to the age 32 seasons. The career age timeline of a tight end is very similar to a wide receiver.

What does this mean for the 2019 season?

Likely the best tight end to ever play, Rob Gronkowski, retired this offseason before his age 30 season. Despite remaining a serviceable player, the wear and tear on Gronk’s body was obvious and had an impact on his previously incredible efficiency.

While historically decline comes just after the age 30 season, Travis Kelce showed no signs of decline last season. Paired with arguably the league’s best quarterback, Kelce remains the odds-on favorite to lead tight ends in scoring this season.

Zach Ertz will turn 29 years old in November and remains squarely in his prime. Ertz caught the most passes for a tight end in a season last year (116) and remains one of the very best at his position heading into the 2019 season.

George Kittle (26 this season) had an incredible season, finishing with a record 1,377 receiving yards. Just entering his prime, you don’t need me to tell you to expect big things from Kittle.

After years of underachieving with the Lions, I told owners to draft Eric Ebron last season. He provided those who drafted him with a great value and is a reminder that tight ends typically don’t break out prior to turning 25 years old.

Young tight ends Evan Engram, Hunter Henry, and O.J. Howard will enter the magical age 25 season. Kelce, Ertz, Kittle, and Ebron all broke out in their age 25 season.

With Odell Beckham Jr. sidelined, Engram scored over four more fantasy points per game – he could lead the Giants in targets with Odell in a Browns uniform.

Hunter Henry has been extremely impressive since entering the NFL – finishing 3rd in tight end efficiency in 2016-17. Henry also has Philip Rivers’ highest adjusted yards per attempt of any of his career pass catchers. With a potential injury discount, Henry will be an excellent selection in 2019 fantasy drafts.

O.J. Howard was again impressive in his second season and was on pace to hit the 170 PPR point threshold before an ankle injury landed him on injured reserve. Howard will be another good selection if you miss out on the top tight ends.

Greg Olsen (will turn 34), Delanie Walker (35), and Jason Witten (37) are getting old and each has already seen a decrease in production. At this stage in their careers, it’s concerning to rely on a player who is likely to soon see a significant decline.