Apex Insider Blog

Using variables like player age can give us an advantage when attempting to predict the future of a player. With dynasty leagues growing in popularity, making the correct prediction for a player’s peak is important. In this article, we’ll determine the peak age for an NFL tight end.

Most players at the same position share similar career timelines. By examining the careers of tight ends, we can gain knowledge as to when players at the position should improve or regress. At a position that is infamous for having players need a year or two extra to transition from college to the NFL, we may find that predicting tight end peaks is different than other positions.

You can see what the peak ages are for wide receivers and running backs. We update these studies each offseason.

Defining A Peak Season

To begin the study, we must define a peak season for an NFL tight end. What is the production necessary for a tight end to consider him at the peak of his career?

Last year, only the top five tight ends scored more than 170 PPR fantasy points. Our peak seasons will include all tight end seasons that finished with at least 170 PPR fantasy points since 2000. The list includes 118 tight end seasons and was generated by the RotoViz Screener.

The average age of the peak season is 27.44 years old. Below is a distribution graph of the ages of the tight end seasons.

The peak is from 25 to 28 years old, as 54.2 percent of the seasons fall within that range. As mentioned before, tight ends generally take a few years to develop. While just 16 total peak seasons took place before a tight end turns 25, 25-year-old tight ends alone account for 20 of the peak seasons.

In addition, a tight end is more likely to achieve a peak season at 30 years old than at 24 years old. We can speculate the reasoning for this but clearly, it takes some time for tight ends to develop in the NFL.

There’s certainly a gradual decline but it seems that there is a bit of a drop off at after the age 31 season. 89 percent of the peak seasons take place prior to the age 32 seasons. The career age timeline of a tight end is very similar to a wide receiver.

What does this mean for the 2019 season?

Likely the best tight end to ever play, Rob Gronkowski, retired this offseason before his age 30 season. Despite remaining a serviceable player, the wear and tear on Gronk’s body was obvious and had an impact on his previously incredible efficiency.

While historically decline comes just after the age 30 season, Travis Kelce showed no signs of decline last season. Paired with arguably the league’s best quarterback, Kelce remains the odds-on favorite to lead tight ends in scoring this season.

Zach Ertz will turn 29 years old in November and remains squarely in his prime. Ertz caught the most passes for a tight end in a season last year (116) and remains one of the very best at his position heading into the 2019 season.

George Kittle (26 this season) had an incredible season, finishing with a record 1,377 receiving yards. Just entering his prime, you don’t need me to tell you to expect big things from Kittle.

After years of underachieving with the Lions, I told owners to draft Eric Ebron last season. He provided those who drafted him with a great value and is a reminder that tight ends typically don’t break out prior to turning 25 years old.

Young tight ends Evan Engram, Hunter Henry, and O.J. Howard will enter the magical age 25 season. Kelce, Ertz, Kittle, and Ebron all broke out in their age 25 season.

With Odell Beckham Jr. sidelined, Engram scored over four more fantasy points per game – he could lead the Giants in targets with Odell in a Browns uniform.

Hunter Henry has been extremely impressive since entering the NFL – finishing 3rd in tight end efficiency in 2016-17. Henry also has Philip Rivers’ highest adjusted yards per attempt of any of his career pass catchers. With a potential injury discount, Henry will be an excellent selection in 2019 fantasy drafts.

O.J. Howard was again impressive in his second season and was on pace to hit the 170 PPR point threshold before an ankle injury landed him on injured reserve. Howard will be another good selection if you miss out on the top tight ends.

Greg Olsen (will turn 34), Delanie Walker (35), and Jason Witten (37) are getting old and each has already seen a decrease in production. At this stage in their careers, it’s concerning to rely on a player who is likely to soon see a significant decline.