Apex Insider Blog

To improve as a fantasy player, it’s important to go back to research how the game is changing and who is providing fantasy players with difference-making value. Reviewing results from the previous season can help with learning positional value trends and the fantasy landscape heading into 2021.

To decide which players provided league-winning value last season, it’s important to evaluate players in direct comparison with their position, not by comparing their total points. For instance, Josh Allen is very likely to outscore Tyreek Hill – but that doesn’t mean he should be drafted higher in one QB leagues.

Generally speaking, a quarterback – even a mediocre one – who starts the entire season is going to outscore most wide receivers. Therefore, we need to evaluate how much more (or less) each player scored compared to the average at their position.

Points Above Average

To gain a baseline or average at each position, I use Fantasy Douche’s old baselines (from an article that is no longer available on the old Rotoworld) with Apex’s lineup and scoring settings. Apex utilizes PPR Scoring and weekly lineups of QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, TE, Flex, K, and D. Defense and kickers were excluded from this study as they generally maintain little year-to-year predictability.

Below are the baselines averaged for each position and their averages per game and for the entire season.

The Baseline above refers to the number of players included in the average. The average season finds a replacement-level value for the entire season. The average per game is a replacement-level value for each position per game.

Even when comparing players by position, there is still the question of whether to compare them by points per game or for the entire season. Players who missed any time are not going to be viewed in a favorable light if we’re comparing players by the entire season. It is important to include the per-game metric because of the high rate of injuries among NFL players, otherwise, a complete picture of the fantasy landscape would not be reflected in the data.

The table below is sorted by Points Above Average Per Game (“PAA PG”) to give us the opportunity to fairly rank players who missed time due to injury. I also included a column for Points Above Average for the entire season under “PAA S”.

Another vital part of figuring out who was the most valuable is how expensive each player was in terms of draft capital – in other words, their average draft position (ADP). The cost of a player is a big determinant of how much value they can provide. Players like Justin Jefferson, who are drafted at an inexpensive cost and produce at a high level, are league-winning players.

For this reason, the Average Draft Position (ADP) on Fantasy Football Calculator from the beginning of September is listed in the table below.

Negative numbers refer to players who finished below the replacement-level average.

Observations

It’s clear the NFL is still continuing to move to a still more pass-heavy league. Even when the receiving production from running backs is included, their production is slipping – while production from all the other positions is rising.

Below is a comparison from this same study done for the 2018 fantasy season.

Quarterbacks are seeing a big leap of 21.07 fantasy points per season and a 2.23 average fantasy point increase per game. While there are marginal increases for receivers and tight ends, there’s a small decrease for running backs. Teams are not only rushing less but using more running backs, which is decreasing the number of the top players at the position.

While the 2018 study featured five running backs at the top of the most valuable per game list, this list features three. Despite being a first-round pick, Davante Adams clearly out-performed his 10.4 ADP – finishing as the second most valuable player per game – behind a player who missed much of the season.

Travis Kelce was another huge value. Being selected at 19.9 on average, Kelce was the 5th most valuable player regardless of whether you sort by season or game.

Stefon Diggs and Darren Waller were both league winners. Being selected in the mid-60’s, Diggs and Waller both provided first-round value. Kelce and Waller finishing inside of the top-8 overall for the entire season illustrates the huge benefit that a top tight end provides and shows why owners should be targeting tight ends early in 2021.

Despite not playing the entire season, Dak Prescott was SO GOOD while healthy he outscored the average quarterback by 4.92 fantasy points per week. That’s an incredible number that’s likely unsustainable but shows the value that a great QB can bring your fantasy team. The same is true for Marcus Mariota, who can largely be ignored despite his one excellent fill-in for Derek Carr. Even without Mariota, there are a striking five quarterbacks who finished inside of the top-37 players per game.

Two of the best values in the fantasy football market were James Robinson and Justin Jefferson. Robinson finished as the 16th most valuable player per game. Jefferson, when comparing players for the entire season, was the 12th most valuable player. Both outperformed their draft position by over 100 picks.

For 2021, Jonathan Taylor looks really good. Finishing 16th out of players for the entire season despite finishing seven games with fewer than 50 percent of the snaps and missing a game due to COVID. The expectations were so high for Taylor that his rookie season was perhaps not viewed as favorably as it should have been.