Gone are the days of consistently finding late-round value at the quarterback position. Over recent years, drafts have become much more efficient at predicting the top quarterbacks, and those who have correctly predicted the QBs have been handsomely rewarded.

Estimated Reading Time: 8 Minutes

In my 2021 Fantasy MVPs article, I used PAA (Points Above Average) to find which players are provided the most value for fantasy owners. For the season, Josh Allen provided the 12th most value over the baseline average for the QB position. Allen, Justin Herbert, and Tom Brady all finished in the Top 19. Obviously not missing games helps, but it’s become difficult to compete in fantasy leagues without a solid QB. Even if we measure the points above average by game, all three finished in the Top 29. Look through the chart and you can see the value that a solid QB brings each week.

PlayerPOSADPPPRPPGPAA SPAA PG
Cooper KuppWR41.3439.525.85237.6812.45
Derrick HenryRB4193.324.160.2710.14
Davante AdamsWR6.4344.321.52142.488.12
Jonathan TaylorRB13.8373.121.95180.077.93
Deebo SamuelWR89.833921.19137.187.79
Austin EkelerRB8.5343.821.49150.777.47
Mark AndrewsTE52.8301.117.71125.286.16
Justin JeffersonWR22.4330.419.44128.586.04
Travis KelceTE8.2262.816.4386.984.88
Ja'Marr ChaseWR77.4304.617.92102.784.52
Leonard FournetteRB90.1255.618.2662.574.24
Christian McCaffreyRB1.2127.518.21-65.534.19
Tyreek HillWR10.6296.517.4494.684.04
Alvin KamaraRB3.8234.718.0541.674.03
Joe MixonRB19.2287.917.9994.873.97
Chris GodwinWR47.2242.417.3140.583.91
Antonio BrownWR72.7121.117.3-80.723.90
Josh AllenQB34.4402.623.6890.303.86
Diontae JohnsonWR44.9274.417.1572.583.75
Najee HarrisRB12.9300.717.69107.673.67
Stefon DiggsWR13.5285.516.7983.683.39
James ConnerRB96.2257.717.1864.673.16
Mike EvansWR37.8262.516.4160.683.01
Rob GronkowskiTE142.8171.214.27-4.622.72
Keenan AllenWR25.9257.816.1155.982.71
George KittleTE28.519814.1422.182.59
Justin HerbertQB69.3380.822.468.502.58
Tee HigginsWR61.3219.115.6517.282.25
Tom BradyQB77.8374.722.0462.402.22
D'Andre SwiftRB34208.916.0715.872.05
Mike WilliamsWR116.2246.615.4144.782.01
Adam ThielenWR52.3199.815.37-2.021.97
Jaylen WaddleWR99.2245.815.3643.981.96
Dalvin CookRB2.5206.315.8713.271.85
Hunter RenfrowWRUND259.115.2457.281.84
Robert WoodsWR35.1137.215.24-64.621.84
Tyler LockettWR48.4241.415.0939.581.69
Kyler MurrayQB41.3300.521.46-11.801.64
Patrick MahomesQB22.9361.721.2749.401.45
Nick ChubbRB9.9215.315.3822.271.36
DeAndre HopkinsWR17147.214.72-54.621.32
Aaron JonesRB7.522915.2735.971.25
CeeDee LambWR29.6232.814.5530.981.15
Brandin CooksWR102.9231.814.4929.981.09
Josh JacobsRB35.422615.0732.971.05
Aaron RodgersQB59333.320.8321.001.01
Jalen HurtsQB100.2312.220.81-0.100.99
David MontgomeryRB25.9195151.970.98
Elijah MitchellRBUND16515-28.030.98
D.K. MetcalfWR19.7244.314.3742.480.97
Calvin RidleyWR1871.114.22-130.720.82
Ezekiel ElliottRB5.3252.114.8359.070.81
Marquise BrownWR140.9226.314.1424.480.74
Dalton SchultzTEUND208.812.2832.980.73
Cordarrelle PattersonRBUND234.614.6641.570.64
Michael Pittman Jr.WR104.4238.614.0436.780.64
Darren WallerTE21.5133.512.14-42.320.59
D.J. MooreWR57237.513.9735.680.57
T.J. HockensonTE55.4145.312.11-30.520.56
A.J. BrownWR24.8180.913.92-20.920.52
Antonio GibsonRB15.6229.114.3236.070.30
Dak PrescottQB66.7320.620.048.300.22
Lamar JacksonQB50.924020-72.300.18
Amari CooperWR40202.513.50.680.10
Damien HarrisRB55.5210.114.0117.07-0.01
Amon-Ra St. BrownWR158.5227.313.3725.48-0.03
Joe BurrowQB112.4314.219.641.90-0.18
Kareem HuntRB53.211013.75-83.03-0.27
Darrell HendersonRB43.8163.413.62-29.63-0.40
Matthew StaffordQB85329.719.417.40-0.42
Darnell MooneyWR109219.712.9217.88-0.48
Dallas GoedertTE93.916511-10.82-0.55
Dawson KnoxTEUND164.110.94-11.72-0.61
Terry McLaurinWR30.3213.512.5611.68-0.84
Elijah MooreWR132.6138.212.56-63.62-0.84
Zach ErtzTE157.1180.710.634.88-0.92
Kirk CousinsQB160.9300.318.77-12.00-1.05
Kyle PittsTE40.3176.610.390.78-1.16
Christian KirkWRUND207.612.215.78-1.19
Henry Ruggs IIIWR123.984.512.07-117.32-1.33
James RobinsonRB29.1173.912.42-19.13-1.60
Noah FantTE79.21599.94-16.82-1.61
Corey DavisWR89.6105.211.69-96.62-1.71
Tyler HigbeeTE95.81479.8-28.82-1.75
Russell GageWR133.816311.64-38.82-1.76
Melvin GordonRB75.2195.112.192.07-1.83
Mike GesickiTE114.31659.71-10.82-1.84
Rashaad PennyRB137.9121.712.17-71.33-1.85
Hunter HenryTE149.7164.39.66-11.52-1.89
Tyler BoydWR97.3183.811.49-18.02-1.91
Javonte WilliamsRB52.7204.912.0511.87-1.97
Pat FreiermuthTE157.3151.79.48-24.12-2.07
Chase EdmondsRB60.4143.311.94-49.73-2.08
Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB20.4117.611.76-75.43-2.26
Chase ClaypoolWR61.1166.611.11-35.22-2.29
Sterling ShepardWRUND77.711.1-124.12-2.30
Jarvis LandryWR118.213311.08-68.82-2.32
Devin SingletaryRB91.2197.811.644.77-2.38
J.D. McKissicRB116.8127.911.63-65.13-2.39
Jakobi MeyersWR116.2186.310.96-15.52-2.44
DeVonta SmithWR77.6185.610.92-16.22-2.48
Russell WilsonQB69.4242.817.34-69.50-2.48
Darrel WilliamsRB150.319611.532.97-2.49
Saquon BarkleyRB12148.611.43-44.43-2.59
Logan ThomasTE72.253.68.93-122.22-2.62
Kendrick BourneWRUND180.510.62-21.32-2.78
Marvin JonesWR126180.210.6-21.62-2.80
Michael CarterRB76.1154.411.03-38.63-2.99
DeVante ParkerWR162.3103.510.35-98.32-3.05
A.J. DillonRB79.1185.610.92-7.43-3.10
Tony PollardRB102.7162.610.84-30.43-3.18
Michael GallupWR135.491.510.17-110.32-3.23
Jared CookTE155132.48.28-43.42-3.27
Brandon AiyukWR53.9170.310.02-31.52-3.38
Tyler ConklinTEUND138.38.14-37.52-3.41
Cole BeasleyWR150.9159.39.96-42.52-3.44
Van JeffersonWRUND168.29.89-33.62-3.51
C.J. UzomahTEUND128.38.02-47.52-3.53
D'Onta ForemanRBUND93.910.43-99.13-3.59
A.J. GreenWR156.6156.89.8-45.02-3.60
Tim PatrickWRUND156.49.78-45.42-3.62
Gerald EverettTE156.6117.87.85-58.02-3.70
Myles GaskinRB45.7173.610.21-19.43-3.81
Allen LazardWRUND142.59.5-59.32-3.90
Emmanuel SandersWRUND131.79.41-70.12-3.99
Ryan TannehillQB96.1268.415.79-43.90-4.03
K.J. OsbornWRUND158.59.32-43.32-4.08
Cedrick Wilson Jr.WRUND147.89.24-54.02-4.16
Odell Beckham JrWR69129.19.22-72.72-4.18
Miles SandersRB38.7117.29.77-75.83-4.25
Jamison CrowderWRUND109.79.14-92.12-4.26
James O'ShaughnessyTEUND50.47.2-125.42-4.35
Cole KmetTEUND121.27.13-54.62-4.42
Rhamondre StevensonRB121.3114.99.58-78.13-4.44
Marquez CallawayWR90.5151.88.93-50.02-4.47
Courtland SuttonWR85.7150.28.84-51.62-4.56
Carson WentzQBUND25815.18-54.30-4.64
Jimmy GaroppoloQBUND227.515.17-84.80-4.65
Dan ArnoldTEUND75.86.89-100.02-4.66
Derek CarrQBUND25715.12-55.30-4.70
Deonte HarrisWRUND113.18.7-88.72-4.70
Evan EngramTE150.9102.56.83-73.32-4.72
Rashod BatemanWRUND103.58.63-98.32-4.77
Jamaal WilliamsRB92119.89.22-73.23-4.80
David NjokuTEUND107.66.73-68.22-4.82
Devonta FreemanRBUND146.69.16-46.43-4.86
Jerry JeudyWR64.1858.5-116.82-4.90
Dontrell HilliardRBUND72.79.09-120.33-4.93
Devontae BookerRB155.5144.19.01-48.93-5.01
Jordan HowardRBUND62.58.93-130.53-5.09
Mecole HardmanWR100140.98.29-60.92-5.11
Kalif RaymondWRUND132.48.28-69.42-5.12
Kadarius ToneyWRUND82.48.24-119.42-5.16
Robby AndersonWR75138.58.15-63.32-5.25
Robert TonyanTEUND50.46.3-125.42-5.25
Teddy BridgewaterQBUND202.714.48-109.60-5.34
Brevin JordanTEUND55.86.2-120.02-5.35
Julio JonesWR4680.48.04-121.42-5.36
Sony MichelRB93.4146.38.61-46.73-5.41
Tre'Quan SmithWRUND87.77.97-114.12-5.43
Laviska Shenault Jr.WR85.91277.94-74.82-5.46
Kenyan DrakeRB102.9102.58.54-90.53-5.48
Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWRUND877.91-114.82-5.49
Gabriel DavisWR144.3125.97.87-75.92-5.53
Donovan Peoples-JonesWRUND109.77.84-92.12-5.56
Randall CobbWR159.793.67.8-108.22-5.60
Rondale MooreWR146.4109.17.79-92.72-5.61
Austin HooperTEUND92.55.78-83.32-5.77
Jamal AgnewWRUND767.6-125.82-5.80
Braxton BerriosWRUND121.17.57-80.72-5.83
Mike DavisRB43.1138.28.13-54.83-5.89
Taylor HeinickeQBUND222.913.93-89.40-5.89
Chuba HubbardRB127.6137.68.09-55.43-5.93
Zack MossRB83.8105.28.09-87.83-5.93
Jared GoffQBUND194.513.89-117.80-5.93

Now that we know how important QBs are, let’s look at how to attack the quarterback position using Underdog’s ADP this season. Price is still everything but pivoting to a quarterback whenever a targeted tier evaporates is a fun yet effective way to attack the position. Generally, I’m considering this top tier when the other members of the league are intentionally fading QB.

The Cream of the Crop

Lamar Jackson, QB4

Obviously, there’s a point that I would draft Josh Allen and Justin Herbert but considering the average prices this season, I find Lamar Jackson to be the first significant value. In 2019, Jackson scored 30.3 fantasy points per game in his MVP season. Over the past three years, no other player who has played at least six games has averaged more than 28.1 fantasy points per game.

The rumors of the Ravens returning to a run-heavy offense are obviously a boost to Jackson’s fantasy value. The most rushes of his career came during his 2019 season. While Jackson is a phenomenal player, this strictly comes down to price. Selected nearly two full rounds after Josh Allen, Jackson is also selected after Herbert and Mahomes. If you remove Jackson’s Week 14 injury game, he averaged more fantasy points per game than Mahomes last year and nearly matched Herbert to the decimal. I’m happy to take the discount in what I expect to be a bounce-back season.

Kyler Murray, QB5

Like in 2020, it was the tale of two seasons for Kyler Murray in 2021. While he finished 5th in QB scoring per game, Murray was averaging 27.51 points per game through the first seven weeks. Josh Allen led all QBs in scoring last year by averaging 27 points per game. It was a similar story in 2020 when Murray averaged an incredible 32.33 points per game over the first nine games of the season.

One of these seasons, Murray is going to run hot for the entire year. If that happens this season, he’s going to be a league-winning selection. While it’s a premium pick, the 59.6 average draft position is palatable – especially in a draft room that is de-valuing the QB position.

The Cheap Upside Target

Trey Lance, QB9

The trend that you’re likely noticing with these quarterback targets is their rushing ability. The Konomi Code just adds an element that is difficult for even the best pure pocket passers to keep up with.

Like Lamar Jackson in 2019, we don’t really know what we’re going to get from Lance this year. But we know he’s going to run. While Lance may not be as good as Jackson, it’s hard to argue that any of the QBs selected after him have anywhere close to as much upside as he does. We want to have that league-winning upside in our target’s range of outcomes. Remember, only one team wins each fantasy league. You must take risks to win.

In his two starts last season, Lance showed tantalizing upside. My exuberance for Lance in 2021 has not waivered and he remains a key target this season.

Low Investment, High-Upside

Derek Carr, QB13

While Derek Carr doesn’t fit my typical mold for a quarterback target, he provides a cheap safety net. Although he threw just 23 touchdowns in 17 games last season, Carr finished as the QB12. History (and Rich Hribar) tell us that it’s likely Carr will see positive regression:

“Las Vegas scored on 42.5% of their possessions a year ago, which was respectable at 14th. Despite that, they were 21st in the league in touchdown rate per drive (20.4%) as touchdowns accounted for 48.1% of their scoring plays, a rate only worse than the Steelers (47.8%) and the Giants (44.2%).

Since 2010, of the 42 teams to kick a field goal on over 50% of their scoring plays, those teams have averaged an increase of 9.4 more offensive touchdowns over the year prior.”

Positive regression is coming, and Carr was good last year. In terms of yards per attempt, he finished 6th in the NFL. Out of the five ahead of Carr, only Jimmy Garoppolo isn’t being selected ahead of him in fantasy drafts.

With a healthy Darren Waller, Davante Adams, and Hunter Renfrow, Carr will easily have the best weapons of his career. Although quarterbacks can be excellent on their own, pass-catchers matter and could make a huge difference for Carr in 2022. In a division with the Chiefs, Chargers, and Broncos, the Raiders will surely be involved in plenty of shootouts and negative game scripts.

Justin Fields, QB16

It’s funny to think that last year Justin Fields was selected as QB15 and this year he’s moved back a spot to QB16, even though we know he’s starting. It’s certainly reasonable: the Bears didn’t look capable of coaching a player like Fields, and Fields didn’t look the part for long stretches of 2021.

And then at the end of the season, Fields got going. These are his final five starts:

Week Opp Cmp Att Yard TD INT Att Yard Avg TD FPts
8 SF 19 27 175 1 1 10 103 10.3 1 28.1
9 at PIT 17 29 291 1 1 8 45 5.6 0 22.1
11 BAL 4 11 79 0 0 4 23 5.8 0 5.3
14 at GB 18 33 224 2 2 9 74 8.2 0 23.6
15 MIN 26 39 285 1 0 7 35 5 0 20.8

In Week 11 against the Ravens, Fields left the game with an injury. If you average the other four starts, Fields averaged 23.65 fantasy points per game. That would be good for the 6th highest points per game output last season.

Obviously, this is a small portion of the season, but the expectations we put on Fields as a rookie are likely unfair and probably shouldn’t be used against him. Especially the emotional bias that some owners surely cling to. There is still a chance he’s the superstar that fantasy owners were so excited about last season. If you’re willing to pay an 11th-round pick to find out, you could be rewarded handsomely for HODLing.