When searching for late-round fliers, the default rankings on each platform are vital to look at. Each drafting platform has exploitable edges based on where players are being listed on the drafting software. Lists are generally sorted by average draft position, which is where each player is being selected on average.
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These late-round fliers are players who are being selected outside of the top-150 picks on Apex. This Apex ADP includes only drafts that are one year, 1-QB leagues that have taken place in the last 12 days. Players are listed in order of ADP.
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Tyrion Davis-Price, ADP: 151.6
Tyrion Davis-Price is a fun stab at late running back value. While sixth-round pick Elijah Mitchell was excellent as a rookie, the signs that he won’t be used as a workhorse seem clear. NBC Sports’ Matt Maiocco believes 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan “appears determined to deploy more of a backs-by-committee approach.” ESPN’s Nick Wagoner believes Davis-Price and Jeff Wilson could be “involved early and often.”
While Mitchell was selected 194th in the 2021 NFL Draft, Davis-Price was selected 93rd overall in the 2022 NFL Draft. Obviously draft capital isn’t everything or Trey Sermon would’ve been much more successful as a rookie, but the pick is significant in terms of gauging the 49ers’ view of Mitchell. The bigger TDP brings a bruising element combined with speed that the 49ers could be looking to feature.
Deshaun Watson, ADP: 169.5
You don’t need me to tell you that Deshaun Watson is good at football. The QB4 in 2020 and QB5 in 2019, Watson is a clear difference maker for any fantasy team. In managed leagues, his possible suspension is less prohibitive than in best ball. If the legal situation plays out favorably for Watson, drafters may receive a top-5 QB at a QB17 price tag. Who says late-round QB is dead?
Justin Fields, ADP: 171.4
I’ve spilled enough ink about Justin Fields already this offseason. The argument is simple – a high-profile prospect, who brings elite rushing ability, and was surging at the end of last year may actually be good. Or least worth targeting at QB18 as one of the highest upside late-round fliers.
Josh Palmer, ADP: 175.6
Josh Palmer is interesting for several reasons. Let’s consider the following:
- We all agree that Justin Herbert is a superstar.
- Keenan Allen is entering his age-30 season and recorded only his second negative fantasy points over expectation per game ever (first since 2014).
- The Athletic’s Daniel Popper expects Palmer “to distance himself as the clear third wide receiver during camp.”
Like Gerald Everett, Palmer provides drafters with a cheap way to tether themselves to Herbert. If Allen or Williams are unfortunately sidelined, Palmer could have massive upside. If training camp highlights matter to you, Palmer has those too.
Josh Palmer breakout coming 🔜⚡️ pic.twitter.com/z54WrW1ACa
— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) August 1, 2022
Nico Collins, ADP: 175.8
While I prefer the receivers that I’ve listed behind him, the argument for Nico Collins isn’t a difficult one. A third-round pick with decent age-adjusted college production, Collins is also a good athlete. With John Metchie out, Collins will be all but guaranteed playing time with the improving Davis Mills.
Beat writers have been raving about him in camp. Team reporter Deepi Sidhu writes Collins has been “making plays” and is a “mismatch” in training camp. Mills said Collins has a“good grasp of the offense” and Houston needs to “find ways to get him the ball.”
Wan’Dale Robinson, ADP: 188.3
Few have been raved about in camp as much as Wan’Dale Robinson. An undersized wide receiver with extremely impressive age-adjusted production, Wan’Dale appears to just be good at football.
NBC Sports’ Peter King reports Wan’Dale has been “the star” of the Giants’ offense throughout training camp. Being moved around the formation, Dan Duggan reported that Robinson is seeing work in the backfield in training camp. Drafted by the new coaching regime in the second round, Robinson’s price just doesn’t make sense.
KJ Hamler, ADP: 188.6
As I was in 2020, I’m still convinced that KJ Hamler was an excellent prospect. His comps, draft capital, and athleticism all aligned beautifully. Due to injuries, poor QB play, and a lack of playing time, Hamler’s first two years have not confirmed my priors.
Activated from the PUP, Hamler will slide into the third receiver role with Tim Patrick’s unfortunate injury. Hamler has said he wants to play the “Tyler Lockett role” for new QB Russell Wilson.
Will Fuller, ADP: 209.6
Following signing with the Buccaneers, Julio Jones has jumped significantly in ADP. The same will likely be true with Will Fuller when he signs. While Fuller shattered his finger and disappointed last season, he is just two years removed from finishing as the WR8 in PPR points per game.
In managed leagues the opportunity cost is zero: Fuller can be held until the season and dropped for a kicker or defense at no cost.
- There are many solid late-round fliers with an ADP over 150.
- Tyrion Davis-Price is the newest San Francisco running back to receive high draft capital, and a committee is looking likely.
- Deshaun Watson and Justin Fields are two quarterbacks that have huge upside as late-round quarterbacks.
- Josh Palmer is cemented as the Chargers’ WR3 and could see a nice target bump as Keenan Allen ages.
- Nico Collins will see little target competition outside of Brandin Cooks and checks multiple prospect boxes.
- Wan’Dale Robinson and KJ Hamler both have starting-caliber talent and are cheap ways to gain exposure to offenses that should be vastly improved.
- Will Fuller could slide into a starting role immediately on whichever team ends up signing him.