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Rookie wide receivers have begun to make an enormous impact on fantasy leagues each year. In 2021, Ja’Marr Chase and Jaylen Waddle both finished as top-12 WRs as rookies. Last year Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave both finished as top-24 wide receivers, and Drake London (WR28) wasn’t far behind.

Estimated Reading Time: 10 Minutes

Let’s examine each of the rookie wide receivers selected in the top-75 picks of the 2023 NFL Draft and see who can make a meaningful impact this season.

I’ll use RotoViz’s Prospect Box Score Scout to generate similar comparable players for each wide receiver. If you don’t have a subscription to RotoViz, we highly recommend checking them out.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks

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Selected 20th overall by the Seattle Seahawks, Jaxon Smith-Njigba was the first rookie wide receiver off the board in the 2023 NFL Draft.

As a true freshman, “JSN” was involved but only recorded 10 catches in six games. His breakout took place as a sophomore, playing with future NFL stars Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave.

Player	Age	G	Rec	Yds	Avg	TD
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	19.8	13	95	1606	16.9	9
Garrett Wilson	21.4	11	70	1058	15.1	12
Chris Olave	21.5	11	65	936	14.4	13

Significantly leading the team in receiving, at such a young age, while playing with not one but two future stars cannot be understated. Smith-Njigba barely played as a junior but this sophomore season indicates that he is a star.

Smith-Njigba didn’t run the forty at the combine but did impress with his incredible agility. His 10.50 agility score is 99th percentile.

Sim	Player	School	DP	CYMS	CTDMS	FYMS	FTD/G	40	WT
100	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	Ohio State	20	0.22	0.13	0.04	0		196
32	George Pickens	Georgia	52	0.22	0.26	0.09	0	4.47	195
32	Percy Harvin	Florida	22	0.23	0.16	0.25	0.58	4.39	192
16	Jerry Jeudy	Alabama	15	0.25	0.22	0.26	0.77	4.45	193
16	Kadarius Toney	Florida	20	0.15	0.13	0.23	0.91	4.39	193
14	John Metchie	Alabama	44	0.2	0.14	0.25	0.62		187
12	Henry Ruggs III	Alabama	12	0.16	0.21	0.18	0.58	4.27	188
9	Justin Jefferson	LSU	22	0.26	0.3	0.26	1.2	4.43	202
9	Chris Olave	Ohio State	11	0.23	0.27	0.22	1.18	4.39	187
9	Garrett Wilson	Ohio State	10	0.23	0.22	0.27	1.09	4.38	183
9	Parris Campbell	Ohio State	59	0.17	0.15	0.21	0.86	4.31	205

Sim refers to the sim score for how similar each comparable player is. DP is the player’s draft position. CYMS is each player’s career receiving yards market share. CTDMS is each player’s career receiving touchdowns market share. FYMS is each player’s final year receiving yards market share. FTD/G is each player’s final year receiving touchdowns per game.

Using RotoViz’s Box Score Scout for JSN is a bit tricky. The final year receiving production is significant and JSN barely played, hence why George Pickens is his most similar comparable. Even including this and its impact on his career market shares, the inclusion of Justin Jefferson, Chris Olave, and Garrett Wilson highlight JSN’s explosive potential.

While DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are excellent receivers, don’t underestimate the potential of a player who has shown superstardom at the collegiate level. Many questioned Ja’Marr Chase’s potential as a rookie when competing for targets with Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. Despite sliding in drafts, Chase finished as the WR5.

Quentin Johnston, Los Angeles Chargers

The following pick after JSN was selected, the Chargers drafted Quentin Johnston out of TCU.

As a 19-year-old freshman, Johnston achieved a 29 percent dominator rating. That jumped to 39 percent as a sophomore before another strong junior season.

At 6’ 3” and 208 lbs., Johnston is big and wins with his 98th-percentile leaping ability.

Sim	Player	School	DP	CYMS	CTDMS	FYMS	FTD/G	40	WT
100	Quentin Johnston	TCU	21	0.31	0.3	0.31	0.46	4.57	208
100	DeAndre Hopkins	Clemson	27	0.29	0.31	0.34	1.38	4.57	214
79	CeeDee Lamb	Oklahoma	17	0.25	0.27	0.34	1.08	4.5	198
73	Jalen Reagor	TCU	21	0.26	0.35	0.25	0.42	4.47	206
71	Robert Woods	USC	41	0.29	0.3	0.23	0.85	4.51	201
65	Laquon Treadwell	Ole Miss	23	0.23	0.27	0.26	0.85	4.52	221
65	Michael Thomas	Ohio State	47	0.24	0.29	0.32	0.69	4.57	212
62	Jonathan Baldwin	Pittsburgh	26	0.32	0.33	0.31	0.38	4.49	228
56	Brandon Aiyuk	Arizona State	25	0.31	0.31	0.39	0.67	4.5	205
56	Laviska Shenault Jr.	Colorado	42	0.29	0.25	0.3	0.36	4.58	227
51	Justin Jefferson	LSU	22	0.26	0.3	0.26	1.2	4.43	202

Johnston looks extremely similar to superstar DeAndre Hopkins and other very exciting hits. While the profile could clearly miss (with busts like Jalen Reagor included), Johnston was much more productive than Reagor in terms of yards per team pass attempt.

The landing spot for Johnston is excellent. The Chargers threw 711 times last season and didn’t have any pass catcher reach 900 receiving yards. Austin Ekeler ended up leading the team in targets while Keenan Allen and Mike Williams both missed time due to injury. Allen (31 this season) and Mike Williams (29) aren’t spring chickens – the first-round pick will receive every opportunity to inject life into the Chargers’ offense. This is a rookie wide receiver who could make a massive difference for both this offense and your fantasy teams.

Zay Flowers, Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens selected Zay Flowers 22nd overall.

Flowers broke out as a 20-year-old sophomore with a 34 percent dominator rating. He continued to improve, concluding with a 47 percent dominator rating as a senior.

Sim	Player	School	DP	CYMS	CTDMS	FYMS	FTD/G	40	WT
100	Zay Flowers	Boston College	22	0.29	0.38	0.36	1	4.42	182
100	Jahan Dotson	Penn State	16	0.28	0.34	0.36	1	4.43	178
87	Kendall Wright	Baylor	20	0.3	0.33	0.36	1.08	4.49	196
63	DeVonta Smith	Alabama	10	0.27	0.3	0.4	1.77
62	Corey Coleman	Baylor	15	0.27	0.34	0.37	1.67	4.42	194
50	Will Fuller V	Notre Dame	21	0.3	0.45	0.37	1.08	4.32	186
48	Calvin Ridley	Alabama	26	0.3	0.25	0.36	0.36	4.43	189
47	Brandin Cooks	Oregon State	20	0.27	0.3	0.36	1.23	4.33	189
47	Elijah Moore	Ole Miss	34	0.29	0.3	0.42	1	4.35	185
47	Rashod Bateman	Minnesota	27	0.34	0.35	0.46	0.4	4.39	190
46	Devin Smith	Ohio State	37	0.26	0.28	0.27	0.86	4.42	196

Flowers has some fun comparables – one of the concerns with him is that he’s not an early declare. Out of this group, Will Fuller, Calvin Ridley, Brandin Cooks, Elijah Moore, and Rashod Bateman all declared for the draft after their junior season. As Blair Andrews expertly noted, “WRs who declare early average over 200 PPR points over their first two seasons. Those who exhaust their eligibility fail to reach even 80 PPR points.” We want receivers who eschew their senior year and declare early.

Flowers joins a previously run-heavy Ravens team that will attempt to become more pass-heavy this season. Unfortunately, there is a lot of competition for targets. Mark Andrews figures to lead the team in targets, while Flowers battles Rashod Bateman and Odell Beckham Jr. for opportunities. Only time will tell where this rookie wide receiver will fall in the “totem pole” of targets in Baltimore.

Jordan Addison, Minnesota Vikings

Addison reached a 30 percent dominator rating as a true freshman at Pittsburgh. He upped his dominator rating to 36 percent as a sophomore before transferring to USC as a junior. In his junior season, Addison’s numbers dropped across the board to a 26 percent dominator rating.

At 173 lbs., Addison is small for an NFL wide receiver. Generally, receivers of this stature are fast, but Addison’s 4.49 40-time equates to just a 19th-percentile speed score. His leaping and agility aren’t above average either.

Sim	Player	School	DP	CYMS	CTDMS	FYMS	FTD/G	40	WT
100	Jordan Addison	USC	23	0.3	0.34	0.25	0.73	4.49	173
46	Calvin Ridley	Alabama	26	0.3	0.25	0.36	0.36	4.43	189
45	Jahan Dotson	Penn State	16	0.28	0.34	0.36	1	4.43	178
41	Justin Hunter	Tennessee	34	0.26	0.28	0.29	0.75	4.44	196
38	DeSean Jackson	California	49	0.31	0.38	0.26	0.5	4.35	169
36	Jerry Jeudy	Alabama	15	0.25	0.22	0.26	0.77	4.45	193
33	Marqise Lee	USC	39	0.38	0.31	0.32	0.36	4.52	192
32	Justin Jefferson	LSU	22	0.26	0.3	0.26	1.2	4.43	202
32	Robert Woods	USC	41	0.29	0.3	0.23	0.85	4.51	201
31	Corey Coleman	Baylor	15	0.27	0.34	0.37	1.67	4.42	194
30	Randall Cobb	Kentucky	64	0.26	0.31	0.29	0.54	4.46	191

Again, Addison’s size and speed aren’t favorable. Even when looking at his comparable players, only DeSean Jackson is lighter – and Jackson ran a 4.35. Out of this group, only Marquise Lee and Robert Woods are slower. If Addison is good, he’ll likely win as a route-running technician. Addison broke out at a young age, declared early, and is a first-round pick so there are still reasons to remain optimistic.

Behind all-world WR Justin Jefferson, Addison will compete with TJ Hockenson and KJ Osborn for targets. The Vikings should have plenty of targets to go around, so I expect Addison to be productive, but he doesn’t have the profile that points to a potential breakout for a rookie wide receiver.

Jonathan Mingo, Carolina Panthers

At 39th overall, Jonathan Mingo was the first wide receiver selected in the second round.

As a freshman was involved but didn’t make a huge impact. In his junior season, he reached a 21 percent dominator rating and upped that to 28 percent as a senior. It wasn’t until his senior season that Mingo topped 2 yards per team attempt.

At 226 lbs. running a 4.46, Mingo is likely this draft’s freakiest player. He combines a 96th percentile speed score with a 91st percentile burst score.

Sim	Player	School	DP	CYMS	CTDMS	FYMS	FTD/G	40	WT
100	Jonathan Mingo	Ole Miss	39	0.21	0.2	0.29	0.42	4.46	220
97	Mohamed Massaquoi	Georgia	50	0.2	0.19	0.25	0.62	4.51	210
92	Michael Pittman Jr.	USC	34	0.25	0.27	0.29	0.85	4.52	223
84	Chase Claypool	Notre Dame	49	0.22	0.22	0.32	1	4.42	238
65	Deebo Samuel	South Carolina	36	0.29	0.29	0.26	0.92	4.48	214
64	Cody Latimer	Indiana	56	0.22	0.25	0.3	0.75	4.52	215
63	Brian Robiskie	Ohio State	36	0.25	0.33	0.27	0.62	4.46	209
62	Josh Palmer	Tennessee	77	0.18	0.13	0.23	0.4	4.51	210
61	Josh Huff	Oregon	86	0.22	0.22	0.3	0.92	4.51	206
58	Tee Higgins	Clemson	33	0.23	0.3	0.27	0.87		216
57	Chris Conley	Georgia	76	0.18	0.2	0.25	0.62	4.35	213

His comparables show a combination of solid hits and misses. Like Flowers, Mingo was a four-year college player. Tee Higgins was an early declare, but hits Michael Pittman, Chase Claypool, and Deebo Samuel were all non-early declares.

Mingo is the type of player that doesn’t have impressive production but his athleticism leads to a projection of what he might be capable of, even as a rookie wide receiver.

On a wide receiver depth chart led by Adam Thielen and DJ Chark, Mingo will have opportunities to climb the depth chart. However, as a player that took time to make an impact at the college level, he may not make an immediate impact.

Jayden Reed, Green Bay Packers

After the departure of Aaron Rodgers, the Packers added some pass-game weapons, including Jayden Reed, in this year’s draft.

Reed broke out as a true freshman for Western Michigan. Following his impressive first year, he sat out a year and transferred to Michigan State. He broke out for the Spartans as a 21-year-old junior but again fell below 2 yards per team attempt as a senior.

Reed has decent speed but below-average leaping ability.

Sim	Player	School	DP	CYMS	CTDMS	FYMS	FTD/G	40	WT
100	Jayden Reed	Michigan State	50	0.27	0.33	0.25	0.45	4.45	187
96	Devin Smith	Ohio State	37	0.26	0.28	0.27	0.86	4.42	196
88	Sterling Shepard	Oklahoma	40	0.27	0.25	0.32	0.85	4.48	194
86	Dante Pettis	Washington	44	0.2	0.27	0.26	0.54		186
79	Randall Cobb	Kentucky	64	0.26	0.31	0.29	0.54	4.46	191
70	Brian Robiskie	Ohio State	36	0.25	0.33	0.27	0.62	4.46	209
66	Christian Kirk	Texas A&M	47	0.29	0.36	0.28	0.77	4.47	201
64	Ryan Broyles	Oklahoma	54	0.28	0.32	0.34	1.11	4.57	192
63	Titus Young	Boise State	44	0.24	0.21	0.29	0.69	4.43	174
62	Justin Hunter	Tennessee	34	0.26	0.28	0.29	0.75	4.44	196
61	Emmanuel Sanders	SMU	82	0.32	0.33	0.37	0.54	4.4	186

Reed spent five years as a collegiate player, so he will begin his rookie year at 23 years old. Hits Randall Cobb and Christian Kirk were both three-year college players.

Reed will slide in behind Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs. While his breakout age and draft position are promising, I don’t expect him to pass either second-year wide receiver in 2023.

Rashee Rice, Kansas City Chiefs

After drafting Skyy Moore in the second round last season, Rashee Rice was selected 55th overall by the Kansas City Chiefs.

Rice wasn’t hugely involved as a freshman but reached a 22 percent dominator rating as a sophomore. He finally topped 2 yards per team attempt as a senior, while reaching a 32 percent dominator rating.

As an athlete, Rice combines solid size with impressive 95th-percentile leaping ability.

Sim	Player	School	DP	CYMS	CTDMS	FYMS	FTD/G	40	WT
100	Rashee Rice	SMU	55	0.24	0.21	0.35	0.83	4.51	204
99	Taywan Taylor	Western Kentucky	72	0.25	0.28	0.37	1.21	4.5	203
98	Josh Huff	Oregon	86	0.22	0.22	0.3	0.92	4.51	206
94	Sterling Shepard	Oklahoma	40	0.27	0.25	0.32	0.85	4.48	194
94	Terrance Williams	Baylor	74	0.26	0.28	0.41	0.92	4.52	208
92	Mohamed Massaquoi	Georgia	50	0.2	0.19	0.25	0.62	4.51	210
87	Bryan Edwards	South Carolina	81	0.27	0.3	0.35	0.6		212
86	Zay Jones	East Carolina	37	0.26	0.21	0.43	0.67	4.45	201
84	Markus Wheaton	Oregon State	79	0.24	0.2	0.31	0.85	4.45	189
83	Malcolm Mitchell	Georgia	##	0.24	0.2	0.36	0.38	4.45	198
83	ArDarius Stewart	Alabama	79	0.23	0.22	0.35	0.67	4.49	204

Sterling Shepard, Terrance Williams, and Zay Jones have had productive NFL seasons. However, his comparables obviously don’t provide a whole lot of reason for enthusiasm.

The Rice backers will argue in favor of his landing spot, which is a great one. With the departure of JuJu Smith-Schuster, the Chiefs will rely on Rice, Kadarius Toney, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Skyy Moore at wide receiver. While Rice is the new and exciting toy, I’d prefer to draft last year’s second-round pick Skyy Moore as a post-hype sleeper.

Marvin Mims, Denver Broncos

Why Marvin Mims wasn’t drafted higher than some of these other receivers remains a mystery to me. Fortunately, Sean Payton and the Broncos ended his slide with the 63rd selection.

Mims hit a 24 percent dominator rating as an 18-year-old true freshman at Oklahoma. He saved his best for last, hitting 2.66 yards per team attempt as a junior.

At 5’ 11” and 183 lbs., Mims isn’t the biggest, but he did run a 4.38 forty. He also leaped to a 91st percentile burst score.

Sim	Player	School	DP	CYMS	CTDMS	FYMS	FTD/G	40	WT
100	Marvin Mims	Oklahoma	63	0.24	0.22	0.33	0.46	4.38	183
92	Dyami Brown	North Carolina	82	0.25	0.28	0.33	0.73	4.46	189
91	Keke Coutee	Texas Tech	103	0.2	0.17	0.33	0.77	4.43	181
86	D.J. Chark	LSU	61	0.28	0.22	0.36	0.25	4.34	199
81	Randall Cobb	Kentucky	64	0.26	0.31	0.29	0.54	4.46	191
70	Markus Wheaton	Oregon State	79	0.24	0.2	0.31	0.85	4.45	189
67	Justin Hunter	Tennessee	34	0.26	0.28	0.29	0.75	4.44	196
66	Jarius Wright	Arkansas	118	0.22	0.24	0.31	1	4.39	182
65	Titus Young	Boise State	44	0.24	0.21	0.29	0.69	4.43	174
60	Rondale Moore	Purdue	49	0.3	0.29	0.29	0	4.28	180
58	Anthony Schwartz	Auburn	91	0.21	0.13	0.31	0.3	4.27	186

Interestingly, his comparable players don’t pop off the page, but Chark and Cobb do provide some hits. Mims, however, checks a lot of boxes: he’ll be a 21-year-old rookie wide receiver, who was productive early in college and has unique athletic traits.

Mims will enter a crowded depth chart that includes Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, and Tim Patrick, but the Broncos did trade up to select him. The Athletic’s Nick Kosmider believes Broncos head coach Sean Payton will “design a very specific role for Mims that allows him to see the field.”

Nathanial Dell, Houston Texans

With the 69th overall pick, the Houston Texans selected Nathanial Dell.

Dell is an older prospect, who began his college career at 20 years old. With an impressive 2.91 yards per team attempt, he broke out as a 21-year-old sophomore with a 36 percent dominator rating. He upped his dominator rating to 38 percent with 1,398 receiving yards as a junior.

Unfortunately, Dell is tiny. At just 165 lbs., his 4.49 forty, when combined with his weight, leads to a 6th percentile speed score.

Sim	Player	School	DP	CYMS	CTDMS	FYMS	FTD/G	40	WT
100	Nathaniel Dell	Houston	69	0.32	0.37	0.34	1.31	4.49	165
55	Paul Richardson	Colorado	45	0.32	0.36	0.45	0.83	4.4	175
47	DeSean Jackson	California	49	0.31	0.38	0.26	0.5	4.35	169
39	Mario Manningham	Michigan	95	0.33	0.42	0.44	1	4.59	181
34	Randall Cobb	Kentucky	64	0.26	0.31	0.29	0.54	4.46	191
33	Stedman Bailey	West Virginia	92	0.3	0.44	0.38	1.92	4.52	193
33	Dyami Brown	North Carolina	82	0.25	0.28	0.33	0.73	4.46	189
31	Brandon Tate	North Carolina	83	0.21	0.3	0.37	0.6	4.52	183
30	Emmanuel Sanders	SMU	82	0.32	0.33	0.37	0.54	4.4	186
29	Tyler Lockett	Kansas State	69	0.36	0.41	0.41	0.85	4.4	182
27	Josh Reynolds	Texas A&M	117	0.27	0.35	0.31	0.92	4.52	194

The box score scout loves his raw stats and doesn’t include any age metrics. Unfortunately, Dell will be a 23-year-old rookie wide receiver, is the lightest of any of these players, and is slower than the hits in this cohort. We like to remain optimistic for rookies, but his size and age are trouble elements of his profile.

The Texans’ depth chart remains barren. Dell will slide in behind Nico Collins, Robert Woods, and John Metchie III.

Jalin Hyatt, Tennessee

After winning the Fred Biletnikoff Award, the New York Giants selected Jalin Hyatt with the 73rd pick.

Hyatt didn’t produce in a significant way until his 21-year-old junior season, in which he had a 37 percent dominator rating and averaged 3.22 yards per team attempt. Hyatt’s production as a junior was incredible but we also would’ve liked to see him an earlier breakout.

Physically Hyatt is just 176 lbs. but combines 4.4 speed and 97th percentile leaping ability.

Sim	Player	School	DP	CYMS	CTDMS	FYMS	FTD/G	40	WT
100	Jalin Hyatt	Tennessee	73	0.22	0.27	0.32	1.25	4.4	176
91	Dyami Brown	North Carolina	82	0.25	0.28	0.33	0.73	4.46	189
90	Keke Coutee	Texas Tech	103	0.2	0.17	0.33	0.77	4.43	181
80	Randall Cobb	Kentucky	64	0.26	0.31	0.29	0.54	4.46	191
73	Brandon Tate	North Carolina	83	0.21	0.3	0.37	0.6	4.52	183
72	Jarius Wright	Arkansas	118	0.22	0.24	0.31	1	4.39	182
64	Diontae Johnson	Toledo	66	0.21	0.27	0.26	0.62	4.53	183
60	Titus Young	Boise State	44	0.24	0.21	0.29	0.69	4.43	174
58	Dante Pettis	Washington	44	0.2	0.27	0.26	0.54		186
54	Markus Wheaton	Oregon State	79	0.24	0.2	0.31	0.85	4.45	189
52	Darius Slayton	Auburn	171	0.25	0.24	0.26	0.45	4.39	190

Hyatt lands on a Giants depth chart that is wide open. He will compete with the likes of Wan’Dale Robinson, Sterling Shepard, Isaiah Hodgins, Darius Slayton, and Parris Campbell. Hopefully, the Giants will allow Hyatt to dominate snaps if he flashes early.

Cedric Tillman, Tennessee

Hyatt’s teammate Cedric Tillman was selected 74th overall by the Cleveland Browns.

Tillman had a five-year collegiate career. His fourth season was the first year that he topped 70 receiving yards (for the season), but finished with 1,085 and registered an impressive 37 percent dominator rating. Tillman was 21 during that season and will play his first NFL season at 23 years old.

At 213 lbs., Tillman is big and has solid speed in the context of his size. He also performed well in the leaping drills.

Sim	Player	School	DP	CYMS	CTDMS	FYMS	FTD/G	40	WT
100	Cedric Tillman	Tennessee	74	0.25	0.29	0.22	0.5	4.54	213
76	Austin Pettis	Boise State	78	0.2	0.3	0.23	0.77	4.56	209
67	James Washington	Oklahoma State	60	0.26	0.33	0.31	1	4.54	213
67	Ty Montgomery	Stanford	94	0.23	0.21	0.24	0.27	4.55	221
55	Chris Moore	Cincinnati	107	0.18	0.29	0.21	0.64	4.53	206
52	Josh Huff	Oregon	86	0.22	0.22	0.3	0.92	4.51	206
52	Nick Toon	Wisconsin	122	0.27	0.28	0.3	0.77	4.49	215
52	Brandon LaFell	LSU	78	0.27	0.31	0.34	0.85	4.58	211
47	Romeo Doubs	Nevada	132	0.28	0.27	0.28	0.91		201
46	Erik Ezukanma	Texas Tech	125	0.22	0.25	0.25	0.36		209
43	Mohamed Massaquoi	Georgia	50	0.2	0.19	0.25	0.62	4.51	210

Tillman’s comparable players are not the most favorable. It’s hard to be enthusiastic about a collegiate player that didn’t break out until he was already 21 years old.

Tillman will begin his rookie year behind Amari Cooper, Elijah Moore, and Donovan Peoples-Jones.