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We continue to see many rookie running backs have a huge impact on the outcome of fantasy leagues. Last year we saw Kenneth Walker and Dameon Pierce finish as top-25 RBs. Tyler Allgeier came on strong down the stretch, averaging 107.8 rushing yards per game over the final six weeks. Isiah Pacheco, Brian Robinson Jr., and Rashaad White were also impactful in fantasy leagues.

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In recent years, very few running backs are playing into their thirties and are recycled for newer, younger players. Only the elite running backs are making it to their second contract. This means that rookie running backs often find their way into playing time. Even if guys don’t make an immediate impact, the violent nature of the position leads to many injuries, and the highly drafted players are likely to see the field.

In this article, I’ll look at each rookie running back selected in the top 125 picks of the 2023 NFL Draft. Remember: running backs don’t necessarily need draft capital to have value but it does help them earn playing time.

I’ll use RotoViz’s Prospect Box Score Scout to generate similar comparable players for each running back. If you don’t have a subscription to RotoViz, we highly recommend checking them out.

Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons

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After no running back was selected in the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft, Bijan Robinson became the first Round 1 running back selection since Najee Harris and Travis Etienne in 2021.

Robinson played extensively as a true freshman, finishing with a 56 percent running back dominator rating. Robinson displayed explosiveness, rushing for 8.17 yards per carry, and added 15 receptions for 196 yards through the air. In his sophomore season, Robinson had an excellent 75 percent dominator rating. He capped off his college career with 1,892 total yards and 20 touchdowns.

At 215 lbs., Robinson ran a 4.46 forty at the NFL combine. Robinson combines size, speed, and impressive leaping ability.

Robinson’s most similar comparables are Ezekiel Elliott and Todd Gurley. The three have similar production, athleticism, and draft position.

Sim	Player	Draft	RuYPG	Recs	RuYds	Rec	RuYMS	Tyms	Forty	WT
100	Bijan Robinson	8	109.94	1.94	1578	19	0.6	0.31	4.46	215
94	Ezekiel Elliott	4	113.17	1.66	1821	27	0.56	0.3	4.47	225
89	Todd Gurley II	10	109.5	2.17	911	12	0.56	0.27	4.52	222
71	Knowshon Moreno	12	105.15	2.04	1400	33	0.64	0.32	4.5	217
70	Darren McFadden	4	120.76	1.21	1830	21	0.48	0.32	4.33	211
56	Jonathan Stewart	13	82.03	1.37	1722	22	0.52	0.23	4.46	235
47	Donald Brown	27	105.56	1.33	2083	21	0.6	0.35	4.46	210
30	Rashard Mendenhall	23	72.54	1.69	1681	34	0.51	0.29	4.41	225
28	Trent Richardson	3	82.37	1.79	1679	29	0.41	0.24	4.48	228
23	Breece Hall	36	109.22	2.28	1462	36	0.77	0.31	4.39	217
21	Dalvin Cook	41	117.47	2.08	1765	33	0.7	0.33	4.49	210

Column Key

Sim refers to the sim score for how similar each comparable player is. RuYPG is the average per game for each rusher’s career. Recs is the per-game receptions for each player’s career. RuYds and Rec represent each player’s final season. RuYMS refers to the rushing yards market share. TYms refers to each player’s market share of total yards.

As a 21-year-old rookie running back, Robinson certainly has the look of a can’t-miss prospect. The Falcons didn’t draft Robinson 8th overall for him to play behind Tyler Allgeier. Robinson said HC Arthur Smith “uses me everywhere, from receiver to running back” when asked about where he’s lined up in minicamp. Expect a 1st round ADP for this young stud.

Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions

Like Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs was also able to slide into the 1st round with the 12th overall selection. At Georgia Tech, Gibbs played frequently as an 18-year-old true freshman, finishing with a 65 percent dominator rating. Gibbs continued to be featured even after transferring to Alabama as a junior. Impressively, he caught 102 passes in 31 career collegiate games.

While Gibbs does weigh just 199 lbs., he ran a 4.36 forty at the NFL combine. He is just 5’ 9” so he still sports an excellent 91st percentile speed score.

Sim	Player	Draft	RuYPG	Recs	RuYds	Rec	RuYMS	Tyms	Forty	WT
100	Jahmyr Gibbs	12	68.68	3.29	926	44	0.48	0.29	4.36	199
60	C.J. Spiller	9	68.12	2.39	1212	36	0.41	0.25	4.37	196
25	Travis Etienne	25	90.04	1.85	914	48	0.5	0.24	4.45	215
20	Jahvid Best	30	86.06	2	867	22	0.47	0.26	4.34	199
16	Isaiah Pead	50	78.29	2.07	1259	39	0.61	0.25	4.39	197
14	Christian McCaffrey	8	106	2.68	1603	37	0.58	0.36	4.48	202
14	Giovani Bernard	37	107.87	4	1228	47	0.66	0.33	4.53	202
13	Knowshon Moreno	12	105.15	2.04	1400	33	0.64	0.32	4.5	217
12	Rashard Mendenhall	23	72.54	1.69	1681	34	0.51	0.29	4.41	225
12	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	32	66.06	2.19	1414	55	0.44	0.18	4.6	207
9	Cam Akers	52	79.83	1.92	1144	30	0.63	0.25	4.47	217

It’s clear that Gibbs is an interesting prospect as he’s not too similar to any running backs in the database. It’s clear that he’s an impressive receiver so the question becomes how frequently he’ll be used rushing the ball.

As a 21-year-old rookie running back, Gibbs combines excellent age-adjusted production and explosive athleticism. It’s hard to imagine him being sidelined for David Montgomery, especially with the number of available carries and targets the Lions possess. Of course, we’ve seen this happen before with D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams, but the Lions must be incentivized to feature a player that they spent significant draft capital on. With the pass-game involvement he should command, Gibbs’ upside likely leaves him undervalued in 2023 drafts.

Zach Charbonnet, Seattle Seahawks

There is quite a drop-off from Robinson and Gibbs to Zach Charbonnet. Charbonnet played four college seasons and only topped a 44 percent dominator rating as a senior. He struggled to break away in college, which isn’t a great sign heading into the NFL. With a 93rd percentile college target share, Charbonnet was productive as a receiver.

Charbonnet is an above-average athlete across the board but lacks wiggle with a 26th-percentile agility score.

Sim	Player	Draft	RuYPG	Recs	RuYds	Rec	RuYMS	Tyms	Forty	WT
100	Zach Charbonnet	52	85.9	1.88	1359	37	0.55	0.25	4.53	214
93	Ameer Abdullah	54	88.23	1.4	1611	22	0.49	0.27	4.6	205
93	Isaiah Pead	50	78.29	2.07	1259	39	0.61	0.25	4.39	197
87	Kenneth Dixon	134	95.32	1.87	1070	34	0.57	0.26	4.56	215
85	Cam Akers	52	79.83	1.92	1144	30	0.63	0.25	4.47	217
83	Travis Etienne	25	90.04	1.85	914	48	0.5	0.24	4.45	215
83	LeVeon Bell	48	83.65	1.95	1793	32	0.54	0.25	4.6	230
83	Duke Johnson Jr.	77	106.64	2.09	1652	38	0.6	0.29	4.54	207
80	Bishop Sankey	54	102.82	1.97	1870	28	0.58	0.29	4.49	209
80	Shane Vereen	56	74.58	1.95	1167	22	0.43	0.25	4.49	210
78	Michael Carter	107	77.34	1.86	1245	25	0.43	0.21	4.5	201

His comparables highlight Charbonnet’s receiving ability. The issue for Charbonnet is Kenneth Walker is in the prime of his career and was excellent last season, rushing for the 7th most fantasy points over expectation as a rookie running back. I do not expect Charbonnet to be able to overtake Walker as a rusher.

Charbonnet can make a difference in the receiving game, where Walker struggled. Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll said Walker and Charbonnet will “battle” for the team’s lead back role this summer. He noted “And really, we’re gonna find out how far he can take it in terms of the receiving part of it. We know he’s really good at it. But so is Kenneth, so those guys will be battling.”

Kendre Miller, New Orleans Saints

Kendre Miller played as a true freshman but broke out as a 19-year-old sophomore at TCU. He closed his college career with an excellent junior rushing season but was never hugely involved as a receiver.

Miller did not participate in any athletic drills but does deserve credit for his age (just recently turning 21 years old).

Sim	Player	Draft	RuYPG	Recs	RuYds	Rec	RuYMS	Tyms	WT
100	Kendre Miller	71	73.55	0.88	1399	16	0.45	0.2	215
100	Darrynton Evans	93	77.92	1.05	1479	21	0.38	0.22	203
98	Derrius Guice	59	90.41	0.94	1251	18	0.39	0.23	224
96	Ben Tate	58	75.48	1.2	1362	20	0.43	0.23	220
93	David Wilson	32	73.94	1.03	1709	22	0.44	0.23	206
87	Glen Coffee	74	61.97	1.24	1383	16	0.37	0.2	209
84	Miles Sanders	53	51.44	1	1271	24	0.37	0.15	211
81	Tre Mason	75	85.11	0.54	1816	12	0.43	0.25	207
80	Kerryon Johnson	43	69.28	1.53	1391	24	0.35	0.21	213
80	Eddie Lacy	61	72.79	1.06	1322	22	0.34	0.19	231
78	Shane Vereen	56	74.58	1.95	1167	22	0.43	0.25	210

Miller has a clear role as an early-round grinder. It’s hard to place him without any athletic testing but it’s apparent that his draft position and production have led to hits in the past.

With Alvin Kamara potentially facing a lengthy suspension, Miller’s primary competition as a rookie running back will be Jamaal Williams. Although Williams is effective, he’s never been an explosive player – averaging 4 yards per carry during his six-year career.

Assistant GM Jeff Ireland said the following about Miller, “It all goes back to height, weight and speed. Loved his running style. He’s a downhill runner, runs with great pad level. He’s got explosive breakaway speed in the open field. He’s creative. He makes people miss … And we just felt like, man, this is too good to be true.”

A Kamara suspension could easily leave Miller as the most explosive player in the Saints backfield. He’s a tantalizing Round 12 rookie running back selection.

Tyjae Spears, Tennessee Titans

A four-year player at Tulane, Tyjae Spears erupted for 1,800+ total yards and 21 touchdowns as a senior. He was also productive in the passing game.

Sharpe tested as a largely below-average athlete except for his leaping ability.

Sim	Player	Draft	RuYPG	Recs	RuYds	Rec	RuYMS	Tyms	Forty	WT
100	Tyjae Spears	81	88.33	1.42	1581	22	0.5	0.26	4.59	201
98	Ameer Abdullah	54	88.23	1.4	1611	22	0.49	0.27	4.6	205
91	Johnathan Franklin	125	83.08	1.09	1734	33	0.58	0.26	4.49	205
91	Darrell Henderson	70	93.29	1.66	1909	19	0.43	0.22	4.49	208
90	Michael Carter	107	77.34	1.86	1245	25	0.43	0.21	4.5	201
88	Zack Moss	86	90.29	1.47	1416	28	0.55	0.27	4.65	223
84	Kendall Hunter	115	90.89	1.37	1548	20	0.49	0.23	4.46	199
83	Montee Ball	58	104.9	1.2	1830	10	0.46	0.27	4.66	214
80	Bilal Powell	126	61.53	1.18	1405	18	0.4	0.19	4.51	207
79	Evan Royster	177	80.24	1.24	1014	25	0.49	0.23	4.65	212
79	Paul Perkins	149	89.44	2.05	1343	30	0.55	0.25	4.54	208

When it comes to comparable players, there aren’t many exciting hits for Sharpe. Most of these players have stuck around as backups and haven’t flashed when given the opportunity.

Titans offensive coordinator Tim Kelly said they are going to give Spears “as much as he can handle.” Obviously, Derrick Henry will continue to carry the mail on early downs but don’t be surprised to see Spears thrust into a pass-catching role early in the season as their lone rookie running back selection.

Devon Achane, Miami Dolphins

Devon Achane was selected 88th overall by the Dolphins. As a 19-year-old freshman, he reached a 55 percent running back dominator rating. As a junior, he reached a 93 percent dominator rating. He was involved in the passing game, catching 60 passes in his final two seasons. Unfortunately, in his final season, his yards per route run dropped to 0.8 on 236 routes run.

Weighing in at 188 lbs., Achane isn’t the biggest – but he did run a 4.32 forty (99th percentile). We would’ve liked to him display a little more athleticism in terms of leaping ability and agility at that smaller size.

Sim	Player	Draft	RuYPG	Recs	RuYds	Rec	RuYMS	Tyms	Forty	WT
100	Devon Achane	84	84.82	2.32	1102	36	0.52	0.28	4.32	188
84	Isaiah Pead	50	78.29	2.07	1259	39	0.61	0.25	4.39	197
76	Ito Smith	126	88.94	2.75	1413	40	0.58	0.27	4.45	195
54	Joe McKnight	112	63.23	1.89	1014	22	0.34	0.19	4.4	198
50	Shane Vereen	56	74.58	1.95	1167	22	0.43	0.25	4.49	210
48	Duke Johnson Jr.	77	106.64	2.09	1652	38	0.6	0.29	4.54	207
47	Cyrus Gray	182	67.31	2.1	1045	31	0.47	0.2	4.4	206
46	Paul Perkins	149	89.44	2.05	1343	30	0.55	0.25	4.54	208
45	Steve Slaton	89	112.09	1.86	1051	26	0.6	0.41	4.45	197
42	Mike Goodson	111	54.56	2.5	406	37	0.43	0.24	4.43	208
42	Cam Akers	52	79.83	1.92	1144	30	0.63	0.25	4.47	217

Unfortunately, his 10 most similar comparables don’t provide a lot of enthusiasm. But if you include his top-20, players like Jamaal Charles, Jahvid Best, and Tevin Coleman are included.

The landing spot is intriguing as both Raheem Mostert (31 years old) and Jeff Wilson (27 years old) aren’t spring chickens. Both have been productive when on the field but neither have the cleanest bills of health. Neither has excelled in the passing game, a place where rookie running back Achane may be able to gain playing time.

The match with Mike McDaniel is a very fun one. ESPN’s Marcel Louis-Jacques writes McDaniel “lobbied heavily” for Achane. McDaniel, a disciple of the Shanahan coaching tree, is excellent at finding open space for runners. If Achane can read blocks (and pass protect) to McDaniel’s liking, his speed will be an explosive combo within McDaniel’s scheme.

Tank Bigsby, Jacksonville Jaguars

As a 19-year-old freshman, Bigsby accounted for a 55% running back dominator rating. He was productive throughout college and involved in the passing game, catching 62 passes during his collegiate career.

At 6 foot, 210 lbs., Bigsby is big and his 4.45 pro-day forty highlights his athleticism. He didn’t test in any agility drills and lacks leaping ability.

Sim	Player	Draft	RuYPG	Recs	RuYds	Rec	RuYMS	Tyms	Forty	WT
100	Tank Bigsby	88	82.94	1.77	970	30	0.57	0.27	4.56	210
100	Isaiah Spiller	123	85.66	2.11	1012	25	0.55	0.27		217
99	Cam Akers	52	79.83	1.92	1144	30	0.63	0.25	4.47	217
98	Mike Davis	126	65.95	1.89	982	32	0.47	0.22	4.61	217
98	Kenneth Dixon	134	95.32	1.87	1070	34	0.57	0.26	4.56	215
97	Marlon Mack	143	100.25	1.81	1187	28	0.66	0.32	4.5	213
97	Shane Vereen	56	74.58	1.95	1167	22	0.43	0.25	4.49	210
96	Paul Perkins	149	89.44	2.05	1343	30	0.55	0.25	4.54	208
94	Wayne Gallman	140	81.64	1.55	1133	20	0.61	0.22	4.6	215
91	David Montgomery	73	79.05	1.92	1216	22	0.72	0.26	4.63	222
86	Duke Johnson Jr.	77	106.64	2.09	1652	38	0.6	0.29	4.54	207

Bigsby looks similar to several well-rounded prospects. Players like Cam Akers, Marlon Mack, Shane Vereen, and David Montgomery provide a reason for optimism.

Behind Travis Etienne, it’s unlikely that Bigsby will be the team’s most talented running back. Jaguars reporter John Shipley believes Bigsby “should have the inside track” to be the No. 2 running back. Michael DiRocco believes the Jaguars “didn’t want to see” Travis Etienne taking 74 percent of the running back carries again. Bigsby will compete with D’Ernest Johnson to form a strong duo with Etienne.

Roschon Johnson, Chicago Bears

With the 115th selection, the Chicago Bears selected Roschon Johnson. As a true freshman, Johnson was very involved, registering a 37 percent dominator rating. Unfortunately, Bijan Robinson joined Texas in the following year so that was the most volume that Johnson received as a collegiate player.

However, when Johnson was on the field, he was effective. As Shawn Siegele points out: “As a senior Johnson generated a 36% evasion rate, gained 4.0 YAC/A, and excelled as a receiver (1.7 YPRR).”

At 219 lbs., Johnson is big but doesn’t appear to be an above-average athlete.

Sim	Player	Draft	RuYPG	Recs	RuYds	Rec	RuYMS	Tyms	Forty	WT
100	Roschon Johnson	115	47.46	1.22	554	14	0.29	0.14	4.58	219
100	Dameon Pierce	107	37.58	0.94	574	19	0.29	0.11	4.59	218
100	Snoop Conner	154	46.59	0.91	651	13	0.29	0.13	4.59	222
99	Damien Harris	87	57.98	0.98	876	22	0.32	0.16	4.57	216
99	Johnny White	133	40.71	1.52	720	24	0.31	0.16	4.5	209
97	Dexter Williams	194	51.13	0.69	995	16	0.33	0.14	4.57	212
95	Mike Davis	126	47.47	1.55	573	24	0.48	0.18	4.61	217
95	DeeJay Dallas	144	49.26	0.9	693	14	0.35	0.17	4.58	217
94	Gary Brightwell	196	51	0.76	386	13	0.34	0.14	4.62	218
90	Chris Evans	202	42.74	1.17	73	9	0.24	0.14	4.5	211
88	Alfred Blue	181	39.16	0.5	343	5	0.19	0.11	4.63	223

Despite being a college backup, the comparables of Dameon Pierce and Damien Harris are favorable. Sitting behind Bijan Robinson is a reasonable excuse for a lack of college production.

As a rookie running back, his competition includes (per Next Gen Stats) the No. 1 and No. 6 backs in rushing yards over expectation. Khalil Herbert and D’Onta Foreman are both good runners so the passing game is an area where Johnson can potentially gain opportunities. Unfortunately last season the Bears only targeted running backs on 61 pass attempts.