For years on the Apex blog, we’ve been pounding the table to draft second-year wide receivers. The only group of receivers that see a fantasy scoring increase are those going into their second NFL season.
We’ve learned that younger receivers that are selected within the top 100 picks are more likely to break out in Year 2. Those who are aware of this edge have been rewarded handsomely.
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TL;DR:
- Jahan Dotson’s rookie year metrics put him in exciting company among first-round wide receivers, and we’re getting a discount compared to other sophomore breakout candidates.
- Treylon Burks has a massive target ceiling and the thresholds he met as a rookie (despite injuries) put him on track to make a leap in Year 2.
- George Pickens’ rookie year efficiency combined with his early collegiate production at a young age gives him exciting comparables for his sophomore campaign.
We’ve seen players like Josh Gordon, Alshon Jeffrey, Allen Robinson, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and many more make league-winning jumps as second-year stars. Last we saw sophomores Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jaylen Waddle, and DeVonta Smith take the league by storm on their way to WR1 finishes.
While rookie breakouts are becoming more common, buying second-year wide receivers continues to be an exploitable edge. Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, and Christian Watson are obvious studs but begin drafting season at an extremely expensive price. Here are three second-year wide receivers who remain undervalued.
Jahan Dotson
While exciting second-year wide receiver Christian Watson is being selected as WR20 in early drafts, Jahan Dotson is being selected as WR40. Let’s see how they compare.
Player | Team | Age | Draft | PPR/G | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD | Y/G | Y/Tgt |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Christian Watson | GNB | 23 | 34 | 11.72 | 66 | 41 | 611 | 7 | 43.6 | 9.3 |
Jahan Dotson | WAS | 22 | 16 | 10.88 | 61 | 35 | 523 | 7 | 43.6 | 8.6 |
Dotson was selected 18 picks higher in the NFL Draft, is one year younger, and was right in line with Watson’s production. Sure, Dotson may not be the physical specimen that Watson is, and he may not currently be his team’s top option, but is that worth a three-round discount?
While Watson may have outpaced Dotson in terms of yards per target, Dotson finished 2nd out of all rookie wide receivers in fantasy points over expectation.
At over 40 receiving yards per game, Dotson slides in with an exciting group of rookies. This list includes all rookie wide receivers since 2011, who were selected in the top three rounds, averaged at least 8 yards per target, played in at least 10 games, and recorded at least 40 receiving yards per game.
Player | Season | Age | Team | PPR/G | Rec | Yds | TD | Y/G | Y/Tgt | Draft |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Julio Jones | 2011 | 22 | ATL | 15.5 | 54 | 959 | 8 | 73.8 | 10.1 | 6 |
A.J. Green | 2011 | 23 | CIN | 14.53 | 65 | 1057 | 7 | 70.5 | 9.2 | 4 |
Torrey Smith | 2011 | 22 | BAL | 11.25 | 50 | 841 | 7 | 52.6 | 8.9 | 58 |
T.Y. Hilton | 2012 | 23 | IND | 12.47 | 50 | 861 | 7 | 57.4 | 9.6 | 92 |
Josh Gordon | 2012 | 21 | CLE | 9.91 | 50 | 805 | 5 | 50.3 | 8.4 | 2-1 |
Keenan Allen | 2013 | 21 | SDG | 14.64 | 71 | 1046 | 8 | 69.7 | 10 | 76 |
DeAndre Hopkins | 2013 | 21 | HOU | 8.89 | 52 | 802 | 2 | 50.1 | 8.8 | 27 |
Terrance Williams | 2013 | 24 | DAL | 9.13 | 44 | 736 | 5 | 46 | 9.9 | 74 |
Odell Beckham Jr. | 2014 | 22 | NYG | 24.58 | 91 | 1305 | 12 | 108.8 | 10 | 12 |
Mike Evans | 2014 | 21 | TAM | 16.34 | 68 | 1051 | 12 | 70.1 | 8.6 | 7 |
Brandin Cooks | 2014 | 21 | NOR | 13.93 | 53 | 550 | 3 | 55 | 8 | 20 |
Jordan Matthews | 2014 | 22 | PHI | 12.64 | 67 | 872 | 8 | 54.5 | 8.5 | 42 |
Amari Cooper | 2015 | 21 | OAK | 13.29 | 72 | 1070 | 6 | 66.9 | 8.2 | 4 |
Tyler Lockett | 2015 | 23 | SEA | 10.34 | 51 | 664 | 6 | 41.5 | 9.6 | 69 |
Michael Thomas | 2016 | 23 | NOR | 17.05 | 92 | 1137 | 9 | 75.8 | 9.4 | 47 |
JuJu Smith-Schuster | 2017 | 21 | PIT | 14.12 | 58 | 917 | 7 | 65.5 | 11.6 | 62 |
Cooper Kupp | 2017 | 24 | LAR | 11.79 | 62 | 869 | 5 | 57.9 | 9.2 | 69 |
Kenny Golladay | 2017 | 24 | DET | 8.6 | 28 | 477 | 3 | 43.4 | 9.9 | 96 |
Calvin Ridley | 2018 | 24 | ATL | 12.93 | 64 | 821 | 10 | 51.3 | 8.9 | 26 |
D.J. Moore | 2018 | 21 | CAR | 9.81 | 55 | 788 | 2 | 49.3 | 9.6 | 24 |
Christian Kirk | 2018 | 22 | ARI | 10.29 | 43 | 590 | 3 | 49.2 | 8.7 | 47 |
Courtland Sutton | 2018 | 23 | DEN | 8.52 | 42 | 704 | 4 | 44 | 8.4 | 40 |
A.J. Brown | 2019 | 22 | TEN | 13.57 | 52 | 1051 | 8 | 65.7 | 12.5 | 51 |
Terry McLaurin | 2019 | 24 | WAS | 13.71 | 58 | 919 | 7 | 65.6 | 9.9 | 76 |
D.K. Metcalf | 2019 | 22 | SEA | 11.69 | 58 | 900 | 7 | 56.3 | 9 | 64 |
Deebo Samuel | 2019 | 23 | SFO | 12.61 | 57 | 802 | 3 | 53.5 | 9.9 | 36 |
Marquise Brown | 2019 | 22 | BAL | 10.46 | 46 | 584 | 7 | 41.7 | 8.2 | 25 |
Justin Jefferson | 2020 | 21 | MIN | 17.14 | 88 | 1400 | 7 | 87.5 | 11.2 | 22 |
CeeDee Lamb | 2020 | 21 | DAL | 13.61 | 74 | 935 | 5 | 58.4 | 8.4 | 17 |
Tee Higgins | 2020 | 21 | CIN | 12.16 | 67 | 908 | 6 | 56.8 | 8.4 | 33 |
Chase Claypool | 2020 | 22 | PIT | 13.43 | 62 | 873 | 9 | 54.6 | 8 | 49 |
Ja'Marr Chase | 2021 | 21 | CIN | 17.92 | 81 | 1455 | 13 | 85.6 | 11.4 | 5 |
DeVonta Smith | 2021 | 23 | PHI | 10.92 | 64 | 916 | 5 | 53.9 | 8.8 | 10 |
Chris Olave | 2022 | 22 | NOR | 13.21 | 72 | 1042 | 4 | 69.5 | 8.8 | 11 |
George Pickens | 2022 | 21 | PIT | 9.79 | 52 | 801 | 4 | 47.1 | 9.5 | 52 |
Christian Watson | 2022 | 23 | GNB | 11.72 | 41 | 611 | 7 | 43.6 | 9.3 | 34 |
Jahan Dotson | 2022 | 22 | WAS | 10.88 | 35 | 523 | 7 | 43.6 | 8.6 | 16 |
Treylon Burks | 2022 | 22 | TEN | 8.55 | 33 | 444 | 1 | 40.4 | 8.2 | 18 |
In addition to being a first-round pick, Dotson performed efficiently as a 22-year-old rookie. However, his price indicates that fantasy drafters expect Sam Howell and the Redskins offense to flounder.
Howell fell too far in the NFL draft after achieving a 92nd percentile breakout age and a 96th percentile college yards per attempt. If he can outperform expectations, an explosive second-year breakout for Dotson could easily be on the way.
Treylon Burks
In case you didn’t read my rookie wide receiver article from last year, Treylon Burks was an excellent prospect coming out of school.
Sim | Player | School | DP | CYMS | CTDMS | FYMS | FTD/G | Forty | WT |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100 | Treylon Burks | Arkansas | 18 | 0.36 | 0.37 | 0.42 | 0.92 | 4.55 | 225 |
88 | N'Keal Harry | Arizona State | 32 | 0.31 | 0.39 | 0.38 | 0.75 | 4.53 | 228 |
83 | Kenny Britt | Rutgers | 30 | 0.39 | 0.33 | 0.41 | 0.58 | 4.47 | 218 |
75 | Jonathan Baldwin | Pittsburgh | 26 | 0.32 | 0.33 | 0.31 | 0.38 | 4.49 | 228 |
65 | Jordy Nelson | Kansas State | 36 | 0.37 | 0.45 | 0.47 | 0.92 | 4.51 | 217 |
65 | Hakeem Nicks | North Carolina | 29 | 0.39 | 0.46 | 0.47 | 0.92 | 4.51 | 212 |
58 | DeAndre Hopkins | Clemson | 27 | 0.29 | 0.31 | 0.34 | 1.38 | 4.57 | 214 |
34 | Alshon Jeffery | South Carolina | 45 | 0.38 | 0.4 | 0.32 | 0.62 | 4.48 | 216 |
34 | Brandon Aiyuk | Arizona State | 25 | 0.31 | 0.31 | 0.39 | 0.67 | 4.5 | 205 |
31 | D.J. Moore | Maryland | 24 | 0.33 | 0.39 | 0.53 | 0.67 | 4.42 | 210 |
30 | Allen Robinson | Penn State | 61 | 0.36 | 0.38 | 0.46 | 0.5 | 4.6 | 220 |
His college production combined with his impressive size/speed combination led to much enthusiasm.
Unfortunately, a toe injury forced Burks to be placed on the Titans’ injured reserve and a concussion led to more missed time. However, he was still able to produce enough to make the list above. Here’s what the list looks like if we only include the receivers that were selected in the first round.
Player | Season | Age | Team | PPR/G | Rec | Yds | TD | Y/G | Y/Tgt | Draft |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Odell Beckham Jr. | 2014 | 22 | NYG | 24.58 | 91 | 1305 | 12 | 108.8 | 10 | 12 |
Justin Jefferson | 2020 | 21 | MIN | 17.14 | 88 | 1400 | 7 | 87.5 | 11.2 | 22 |
Ja'Marr Chase | 2021 | 21 | CIN | 17.92 | 81 | 1455 | 13 | 85.6 | 11.4 | 5 |
Julio Jones | 2011 | 22 | ATL | 15.5 | 54 | 959 | 8 | 73.8 | 10.1 | 6 |
A.J. Green | 2011 | 23 | CIN | 14.53 | 65 | 1057 | 7 | 70.5 | 9.2 | 4 |
Mike Evans | 2014 | 21 | TAM | 16.34 | 68 | 1051 | 12 | 70.1 | 8.6 | 7 |
Chris Olave | 2022 | 22 | NOR | 13.21 | 72 | 1042 | 4 | 69.5 | 8.8 | 11 |
Amari Cooper | 2015 | 21 | OAK | 13.29 | 72 | 1070 | 6 | 66.9 | 8.2 | 4 |
CeeDee Lamb | 2020 | 21 | DAL | 13.61 | 74 | 935 | 5 | 58.4 | 8.4 | 17 |
Brandin Cooks | 2014 | 21 | NOR | 13.93 | 53 | 550 | 3 | 55 | 8 | 20 |
DeVonta Smith | 2021 | 23 | PHI | 10.92 | 64 | 916 | 5 | 53.9 | 8.8 | 10 |
Calvin Ridley | 2018 | 24 | ATL | 12.93 | 64 | 821 | 10 | 51.3 | 8.9 | 26 |
DeAndre Hopkins | 2013 | 21 | HOU | 8.89 | 52 | 802 | 2 | 50.1 | 8.8 | 27 |
D.J. Moore | 2018 | 21 | CAR | 9.81 | 55 | 788 | 2 | 49.3 | 9.6 | 24 |
Jahan Dotson | 2022 | 22 | WAS | 10.88 | 35 | 523 | 7 | 43.6 | 8.6 | 16 |
Marquise Brown | 2019 | 22 | BAL | 10.46 | 46 | 584 | 7 | 41.7 | 8.2 | 25 |
Treylon Burks | 2022 | 22 | TEN | 8.55 | 33 | 444 | 1 | 40.4 | 8.2 | 18 |
Take this list with a grain of salt as a number of these players drastically outperformed Burks as a rookie – but there should be enthusiasm for a first-round pick who was efficient and productive as a rookie.
Jim Wyatt reports Burks has been Ryan Tannehill’s “favorite target” at OTAs. Burks also “looks fit, and faster.” Don’t believe the beat writers? See for yourself.
Put this on repeat 🔁 pic.twitter.com/ZjX6mFOb2I
— Tennessee Titans (@Titans) June 3, 2023
Dalton notes that he looks like another rookie wide receiver.
Treylon Burks vs Dez Bryant as rookies
Burks
1st round pick
225 lbs
11 games played
1.75 YPRR
11.6 aDOT
17.6% target shareBryant
1st round pick
220 lbs
12 games played
1.79 YPRR
11.5 aDOT
16.7% target shareBurks is such a screaming buy this year
— Dalton Kates (@Dalton_Kates) May 23, 2023
George Pickens
Pickens isn’t a first-round pick, but he was a 21-year-old rookie. His college profile was shaky in some areas, but his true freshman breakout provides a reason for enthusiasm.
Using RotoViz’s Similarity Search, there are many exciting comparables for his rookie season.
PLAYER | YR | AGE | DRAFT | REC | TGT | reYDS | reTDS | YPT | reFPOE | PPR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
George Pickens | 2022 | 21 | 52 | 49 | 79 | 729 | 3 | 9.2 | 12.3 | 148.3 |
Kenny Britt | 2009 | 21 | 30 | 42 | 75 | 701 | 3 | 9.3 | 10.7 | 130.1 |
DJ Moore | 2018 | 21 | 24 | 55 | 82 | 788 | 2 | 9.6 | 10.5 | 160.2 |
Brandin Cooks | 2014 | 21 | 20 | 53 | 69 | 550 | 3 | 8 | 14.6 | 139.3 |
Jeremy Maclin | 2009 | 21 | 19 | 56 | 91 | 773 | 4 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 156.6 |
Santonio Holmes | 2006 | 22 | 25 | 49 | 86 | 824 | 2 | 9.6 | 8.3 | 144.7 |
DeAndre Hopkins | 2013 | 21 | 27 | 52 | 91 | 802 | 2 | 8.8 | -2.4 | 144.2 |
Christian Kirk | 2018 | 22 | 47 | 43 | 68 | 590 | 3 | 8.7 | 13.6 | 123.5 |
Stefon Diggs | 2015 | 22 | 146 | 52 | 84 | 720 | 4 | 8.6 | 18.3 | 149.3 |
Antonio Bryant | 2002 | 21 | 63 | 44 | 93 | 733 | 6 | 7.9 | 5.3 | 157.3 |
Keary Colbert | 2004 | 22 | 62 | 47 | 92 | 754 | 5 | 8.2 | 7.8 | 154.4 |
Chris Givens | 2012 | 23 | 96 | 42 | 80 | 698 | 3 | 8.7 | 5.8 | 133 |
Elijah Moore | 2021 | 21 | 34 | 43 | 77 | 538 | 5 | 7 | 2.4 | 138.2 |
Laviska Shenault | 2020 | 22 | 42 | 58 | 79 | 600 | 5 | 7.6 | 18.2 | 157.1 |
Calvin Johnson | 2007 | 22 | 2 | 48 | 94 | 756 | 4 | 8 | -2.6 | 158.8 |
Allen Robinson | 2014 | 21 | 61 | 48 | 81 | 548 | 2 | 6.8 | -9.8 | 116.8 |
Titus Young | 2011 | 22 | 44 | 48 | 85 | 607 | 6 | 7.1 | 7 | 148.2 |
Jamison Crowder | 2015 | 22 | 105 | 59 | 78 | 604 | 2 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 135.6 |
Robert Woods | 2013 | 21 | 41 | 40 | 85 | 587 | 3 | 6.9 | -13.6 | 120.3 |
Antonio Callaway | 2018 | 21 | 105 | 43 | 81 | 586 | 5 | 7.2 | -4.9 | 134.3 |
In terms of fantasy points over expectation, Pickens finished 4th out of the rookies. He was by far his team’s most efficient target.
After proving himself as a rookie, I expect the Steelers to make more of an effort to get their young phenom the ball.