Apex Insider Blog

Each year rookie wide receivers are having an enormous impact on fantasy leagues. Last year Puka Nacua lit the world on fire, while Tank Dell, Rashee Rice, and more were significant fantasy contributors as well.

Let’s examine each of the rookie wide receivers selected in the top 75 picks of the 2024 NFL Draft and see who can make a meaningful impact this season.

I’ll use RotoViz’s Prospect Box Score Scout to generate similar comparable players for each wide receiver. If you don’t have a subscription to RotoViz, we highly recommend checking them out. There isn’t a better fantasy football content provider out there.

Marvin Harrison Jr., Arizona Cardinals

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Marvin Harrison Jr. was selected 4th overall by the Arizona Cardinals. Harrison Jr. is famously the son of former Hall of Fame wide receiver Marvin Harrison.

“MHJ” broke out as a sophomore, compiling 1,263 receiving yards and 14 touchdowns. As a junior, he recorded an eye-popping 45% dominator rating. MHJ did not participate in the athletic drills at the combine, likely because his stock simply couldn’t get much higher no matter how well he tested.

Sim	Player	School	DP	CYMS	CTDMS	FYMS	FTD/G	40	WT
100	Marvin Harrison Jr.	Ohio State	4	0.29	0.38	0.36	1.17		209
74	Justin Blackmon	Oklahoma State	5	0.32	0.45	0.3	1.38	4.46	207
50	Sammy Watkins	Clemson	4	0.3	0.26	0.34	0.92	4.43	211
36	Amari Cooper	Alabama	4	0.37	0.36	0.44	1.14	4.42	211
26	Drake London	USC	8	0.29	0.25	0.43	0.88		219
15	Mike Evans	Texas A&M	7	0.29	0.25	0.3	0.92	4.53	231
14	Michael Crabtree	Texas Tech	10	0.27	0.41	0.22	1.46	4.54	215
14	Julio Jones	Alabama	6	0.33	0.3	0.33	0.54	4.34	220
13	Kevin White	West Virginia	7	0.28	0.37	0.35	0.77	4.35	215
11	JaMarr Chase	LSU	5	0.27	0.31	0.32	1.43	4.34	201
9	Mike Williams	Clemson	7	0.23	0.21	0.27	0.73		218

Sim refers to the sim score for how similar each comparable player is. DP is the player’s draft position. CYMS is each player’s career receiving yards market share. CTDMS is each player’s career receiving touchdowns market share. FYMS is each player’s final year receiving yards market share. FTD/G is each player’s final year receiving touchdowns per game.

His comparable players paint a picture of the who’s who of NFL wide receivers. The sky is the limit for MHJ; he’s about as can’t miss as a prospect can be.

Malik Nabers, New York Giants

Like Harrison, Malik Nabers is an absolute stud. He was selected 6th overall by the New York Giants.

Nabers was involved as a true freshman before registering a 20% dominator rating as a sophomore. In his junior season, he upped that to 34% with a tremendous 3.82 yards per team attempt.

Nabers didn’t participate at the combine but ran a 4.35 forty at his pro day. His size, weight, and athleticism paint a picture of a Ja’Marr Chase clone.

Sim	Player	School	DP	CYMS	CTDMS	FYMS	FTD/G	40	WT
100	Malik Nabers	LSU	6	0.28	0.23	0.36	1.08
77	Odell Beckham Jr.	LSU	12	0.3	0.23	0.35	0.62	4.38	198
68	Garrett Wilson	Ohio State	10	0.23	0.22	0.27	1.09	4.38	183
68	JaMarr Chase	LSU	5	0.27	0.31	0.32	1.43	4.34	201
63	Tavon Austin	West Virginia	8	0.24	0.26	0.3	0.92	4.34	174
59	Ted Ginn Jr.	Ohio State	9	0.29	0.27	0.28	0.75	4.38	178
55	Sammy Watkins	Clemson	4	0.3	0.26	0.34	0.92	4.43	211
53	John Ross	Washington	9	0.22	0.29	0.32	1.21	4.22	188
50	DeVonta Smith	Alabama	10	0.27	0.3	0.4	1.77
38	Darrius Heyward-Bey	Maryland	7	0.29	0.34	0.26	0.42	4.3	210
37	Julio Jones	Alabama	6	0.33	0.3	0.33	0.54	4.34	220

With top comps of Odell, Garrett Wilson, and Chase, it’s hard not to get excited about Nabers. The future star is already making noise in camp, an anonymous offensive assistant coach said Nabers “could be like Odell” in 2024.

“Post more Malik Nabers content!!!” pic.twitter.com/bsCHPtKmDM

— New York Giants (@Giants) June 6, 2024

Rome Odunze, Chicago Bears

The Chicago Bears selected Rome Odunze with the 9th overall selection.

Unlike MHJ and Nabers, Odunze is a non-early declare. He broke out as a sophomore with a 30% dominator rating. As a senior, Odunze topped 1,600 receiving yards with 13 touchdowns.

Rome proved an excellent athlete at the combine. At 212 lbs., he ran a 4.45 forty – good for a 94th percentile speed score. He also performed well in the leaping and agility drills.

Sim	Player	School	DP	CYMS	CTDMS	FYMS	FTD/G	40	WT
100	Rome Odunze	Washington	9	0.28	0.3	0.32	0.87	4.45	212
67	Michael Floyd	Notre Dame	13	0.32	0.41	0.35	0.69	4.4	220
64	Mike Williams	Clemson	7	0.23	0.21	0.27	0.73		218
59	DeVonta Smith	Alabama	10	0.27	0.3	0.4	1.77
53	Drake London	USC	8	0.29	0.25	0.43	0.88		219
50	Odell Beckham Jr.	LSU	12	0.3	0.23	0.35	0.62	4.38	198
48	Kendall Wright	Baylor	20	0.3	0.33	0.36	1.08	4.49	196
47	Corey Coleman	Baylor	15	0.27	0.34	0.37	1.67	4.42	194
46	Julio Jones	Alabama	6	0.33	0.3	0.33	0.54	4.34	220
45	CeeDee Lamb	Oklahoma	17	0.25	0.27	0.34	1.08	4.5	198
43	Sammy Watkins	Clemson	4	0.3	0.26	0.34	0.92	4.43	211

Odunze clearly has some excellent comparable players and should be a good NFL player. The question remains: with Caleb Williams starting, can Odunze be productive as a rookie on a team with D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen? The Bears might be a team to target this season for fantasy pass-catchers, though Odunze is likely to be less consistent than Harrison or Nabers.

Brian Thomas Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jacksonville Jaguars selected Brian Thomas Jr. with the 23rd overall selection.

Thomas was a three-year player at LSU but didn’t break out until an excellent junior season. As a junior, he finished with a 33% dominator rating boosted by 17 touchdowns. Unfortunately, prior to his 21-year-old junior season, he didn’t even top 0.97 yards per team pass attempt.

Thomas tested as an excellent athlete. He ran a 4.33 forty at 209 lbs., which registers a 99th percentile speed score. He also performed well in the leaping drills.

Sim	Player	School	DP	CYMS	CTDMS	FYMS	FTD/G	40	WT
100	Brian Thomas Jr.	LSU	23	0.18	0.26	0.27	1.31	4.33	209
57	Justin Jefferson	LSU	22	0.26	0.3	0.26	1.2	4.43	202
55	Breshad Perriman	UCF	26	0.26	0.24	0.34	0.69		212
43	Nelson Agholor	USC	20	0.26	0.23	0.34	0.92	4.42	198
42	Justin Hunter	Tennessee	34	0.26	0.28	0.29	0.75	4.44	196
39	Terrace Marshall Jr.	LSU	59	0.17	0.3	0.34	1.43	4.4	205
34	Phillip Dorsett	Miami	29	0.21	0.23	0.29	0.83	4.33	185
33	Jerry Jeudy	Alabama	15	0.25	0.22	0.26	0.77	4.45	193
33	Jalen Reagor	TCU	21	0.26	0.35	0.25	0.42	4.47	206
32	Brandin Cooks	Oregon State	20	0.27	0.3	0.36	1.23	4.33	189
32	Alec Pierce	Cincinnati	53	0.26	0.21	0.27	0.57	4.41	211

The concern for Thomas is he’s a one-year wonder. His career receiving yards market share was just 18%, while most of his comparable prospects earn 26%. Despite being a physical specimen, I’m often weary of players who don’t exhibit prolonged production at the college level.

Xavier Worthy, Kansas City Chiefs

With the 28th overall pick (acquired from Buffalo), the Chiefs selected Xavier Worthy.

Worthy broke out as a true freshman, compiling 993 yards and 12 touchdowns. His 39% dominator rating is top-end age-adjusted production and a great sign for his future. Worthy didn’t top those numbers as a sophomore or junior but his percentage of catchable passes was extremely low. It was also reported that Worthy played the second half of 2022 with a broken hand.

At the NFL Combine, Worthy broke the record for the fastest forty time at 4.21 seconds. He also leaped to a 96th percentile burst score. The red flag for Worthy is weighing just 165 lbs., but NFL wide receiver weight has changed over the years, making this far less concerning than it once was.

Sim	Player	School	DP	CYMS	CTDMS	FYMS	FTD/G	40	WT
100	Xavier Worthy	Texas	28	0.28	0.34	0.25	0.36	4.21	165
64	Rondale Moore	Purdue	49	0.3	0.29	0.29	0	4.28	180
53	DeSean Jackson	California	49	0.31	0.38	0.26	0.5	4.35	169
28	Brandin Cooks	Oregon State	20	0.27	0.3	0.36	1.23	4.33	189
22	Will Fuller V	Notre Dame	21	0.3	0.45	0.37	1.08	4.32	186
20	Tyquan Thornton	Baylor	50	0.21	0.26	0.33	0.71	4.28	181
16	Phillip Dorsett	Miami	29	0.21	0.23	0.29	0.83	4.33	185
16	Elijah Moore	Ole Miss	34	0.29	0.3	0.42	1	4.35	185
12	John Ross	Washington	9	0.22	0.29	0.32	1.21	4.22	188
11	Dante Pettis	Washington	44	0.2	0.27	0.26	0.54		186
11	Deon Butler	Penn State	91	0.26	0.31	0.26	0.54	4.31	182

Players like DeSean Jackson, Brandin Cooks, and Will Fuller should alert drafters that Worthy has sky-high upside. While he could be another miss for Andy Reid, playing with Patrick Mahomes should help alleviate potential concerns.

Ricky Pearsall, San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers added to their reservoir of playmakers by drafting Ricky Pearsall with the 31st overall selection.

A five-year college player, Pearsall never topped a 28% dominator rating. It took him till his 5th season before he topped 1.86 yards per team attempt. When drafting a first-round wide receiver, you’d like to see more production.

Pearsall did, however, lit up the combine. He ran a 4.41 forty, finished with a 98th percentile burst score, and 97th percentile agility. The negative is he weighs just 189 lbs.

Sim	Player	School	DP	CYMS	CTDMS	FYMS	FTD/G	40	WT
100	Ricky Pearsall	Florida	31	0.22	0.2	0.31	0.33	4.41	189
70	Phillip Dorsett	Miami	29	0.21	0.23	0.29	0.83	4.33	185
57	Titus Young	Boise State	44	0.24	0.21	0.29	0.69	4.43	174
51	Sterling Shepard	Oklahoma	40	0.27	0.25	0.32	0.85	4.48	194
51	Devin Smith	Ohio State	37	0.26	0.28	0.27	0.86	4.42	196
42	Dante Pettis	Washington	44	0.2	0.27	0.26	0.54		186
33	Zay Jones	East Carolina	37	0.26	0.21	0.43	0.67	4.45	201
32	Markus Wheaton	Oregon State	79	0.24	0.2	0.31	0.85	4.45	189
32	Tyquan Thornton	Baylor	50	0.21	0.26	0.33	0.71	4.28	181
31	Rashee Rice	SMU	55	0.24	0.21	0.35	0.83	4.51	204
30	Kadarius Toney	Florida	20	0.15	0.13	0.23	0.91	4.39	193

The comparable players are alarming. Aside from Rashee Rice, the comparable prospects paint a picture of underachievers. To add fuel to the fire, Pearsall will likely enter the season behind Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk. Even if one were to go down, Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle would likely receive plenty more opportunities in front of Pearsall.

Xavier Legette, Carolina Panthers

With the last pick of the first round, the Carolina Panthers selected Xavier Legette.

Legette was a five-year college player and didn’t breakout until his fifth season. He didn’t top 1.08 yards per team attempt until his fifth season. In his fifth season, he compiled 1,255 yards and scored seven touchdowns.

Legette dominated the combine, running a 4.39 forty at 221 lbs. He also leaped to a 89th percentile burst score. Legette is certainly an athletic freak.

Sim	Player	School	DP	CYMS	CTDMS	FYMS	FTD/G	40	WT
100	Xavier Legette	South Carolina	32	0.21	0.21	0.38	0.58	4.39	221
65	Jonathan Mingo	Ole Miss	39	0.21	0.2	0.29	0.42	4.46	220
54	Chase Claypool	Notre Dame	49	0.22	0.22	0.32	1	4.42	238
46	Zay Jones	East Carolina	37	0.26	0.21	0.43	0.67	4.45	201
38	Michael Pittman Jr.	USC	34	0.25	0.27	0.29	0.85	4.52	223
34	Rashee Rice	SMU	55	0.24	0.21	0.35	0.83	4.51	204
27	Brian Robiskie	Ohio State	36	0.25	0.33	0.27	0.62	4.46	209
25	Mohamed Massaquoi	Georgia	50	0.2	0.19	0.25	0.62	4.51	210
24	Sterling Shepard	Oklahoma	40	0.27	0.25	0.32	0.85	4.48	194
23	Deebo Samuel	South Carolina	36	0.29	0.29	0.26	0.92	4.48	214
23	Devin Smith	Ohio State	37	0.26	0.28	0.27	0.86	4.42	196

You can see from the comps that Legette is a bigger wide receiver. Jonathan Mingo and Chase Claypool are very similar profiles. Can Legette’s freak athleticism help him overcome his lack of prolonged production?

Keon Coleman, Buffalo Bills

After trading Stefon Diggs, the Bills selected Keon Coleman in the second round.

As a sophomore, Coleman finished with a 29% dominator rating at Michigan State. During that season, he slightly outperformed teammate Jayden Reed. Coleman transferred to Florida State for his junior season where he finished with an impressive 46% of the receiving touchdowns. Despite showing a nose for the endzone, Coleman never topped 800 receiving yards or 1.94 yards per team attempt in college.

At the NFL Combine, Coleman ran a 4.61 forty. At 213 lbs., that’s good for a 62nd percentile speed score. He leaped to an 82nd percentile burst score.

Sim	Player	School	DP	CYMS	CTDMS	FYMS	FTD/G	40	WT
100	Keon Coleman	Florida State	33	0.22	0.32	0.22	0.92	4.61	213
95	Tee Higgins	Clemson	33	0.23	0.3	0.27	0.87		216
82	Michael Thomas	Ohio State	47	0.24	0.29	0.32	0.69	4.57	212
81	Laquon Treadwell	Ole Miss	23	0.23	0.27	0.26	0.85	4.52	221
59	Robert Woods	USC	41	0.29	0.3	0.23	0.85	4.51	201
57	Cody Latimer	Indiana	56	0.22	0.25	0.3	0.75	4.52	215
52	DeAndre Hopkins	Clemson	27	0.29	0.31	0.34	1.38	4.57	214
51	Jalen Reagor	TCU	21	0.26	0.35	0.25	0.42	4.47	206
50	JuJu Smith-Schuster	USC	62	0.28	0.25	0.25	0.77	4.54	215
45	Malcolm Kelly	Oklahoma	51	0.31	0.33	0.25	0.75	4.68	224
45	Laviska Shenault Jr.	Colorado	42	0.29	0.25	0.3	0.36	4.58	227

Coleman’s comparable players show some impressive hits in Tee Higgins, Michael Thomas, and DeAndre Hopkins. While Laquon Treadwell, Cody Latimer, and Malcolm Kelly highlight that the bigger wide receivers don’t always hit.

Ladd McConkey, Los Angeles Chargers

With Keenan Allen and Mike Williams departing, the Chargers selected McConkey in the second round.

For his entire collegiate career, McConkey has just 1,687 receiving yards. He never topped a 20% dominator rating. Like Puka Nacua, McConkey was impressive on a per-route basis. The concern is the expectation that a part-time player in college will become a full-time player in the NFL, which is the exception and not the rule.

At 186 lbs., McConkey ran a 4.39 forty. He was slightly above average in the leaping drills with a 60th percentile burst score.

Sim	Player	School	DP	CYMS	CTDMS	FYMS	FTD/G	40	WT
100	Ladd McConkey	Georgia	34	0.16	0.16	0.2	0.25	4.39	186
95	John Metchie	Alabama	44	0.2	0.14	0.25	0.62		187
70	Kadarius Toney	Florida	20	0.15	0.13	0.23	0.91	4.39	193
67	Mecole Hardman	Georgia	56	0.17	0.2	0.17	0.54	4.33	187
64	Parris Campbell	Ohio State	59	0.17	0.15	0.21	0.86	4.31	205
47	Dante Pettis	Washington	44	0.2	0.27	0.26	0.54		186
47	Phillip Dorsett	Miami	29	0.21	0.23	0.29	0.83	4.33	185
36	Terry McLaurin	Ohio State	76	0.12	0.18	0.15	0.92	4.35	208
33	George Pickens	Georgia	52	0.22	0.26	0.09	0	4.47	195
31	Dexter McCluster	Ole Miss	36	0.22	0.12	0.2	0.25	4.53	172
29	Derrick Williams	Penn State	82	0.18	0.14	0.15	0.31	4.47	194

McConkey’s lack of consistent playing time hurts his comparable players. It’s rare that a player with so little production is selected so highly. Regardless, if McConkey can keep up his per-play efficiency on a team that is desperate for playmaking in the passing game, he could be an impact player immediately. Herbert will be looking for a new target hog even if the Chargers are run-heavy. With the draft capital invested in McConkey by this new staff, the Chargers will need him to have an impact.

Ja’Lynn Polk, New England Patriots

The Patriots selected Ja’Lynn Polk with the 37th overall selection.

Polk transferred from Texas Tech to Washington after his freshman year but didn’t top a 14% receiving yards market share until his senior season. His senior production looks impressive because of the potent Washington offense, but his market share was far from dominant.

At 203 lbs., Polk ran a 4.52 forty. He did impress in the leaping drills.

Sim	Player	School	DP	CYMS	CTDMS	FYMS	FTD/G	40	WT
100	JaLynn Polk	Washington	37	0.17	0.21	0.24	0.69	4.52	203
98	Mohamed Massaquoi	Georgia	50	0.2	0.19	0.25	0.62	4.51	210
81	Jonathan Mingo	Ole Miss	39	0.21	0.2	0.29	0.42	4.46	220
70	Josh Palmer	Tennessee	77	0.18	0.13	0.23	0.4	4.51	210
62	Rashee Rice	SMU	55	0.24	0.21	0.35	0.83	4.51	204
55	Amari Rodgers	Clemson	85	0.15	0.14	0.24	0.58	4.52	212
52	Austin Pettis	Boise State	78	0.2	0.3	0.23	0.77	4.56	209
51	Josh Huff	Oregon	86	0.22	0.22	0.3	0.92	4.51	206
45	Michael Pittman Jr.	USC	34	0.25	0.27	0.29	0.85	4.52	223
43	Sterling Shepard	Oklahoma	40	0.27	0.25	0.32	0.85	4.48	194
42	Cody Latimer	Indiana	56	0.22	0.25	0.3	0.75	4.52	215

There are a few hits mixed in, but this is a profile that has previously disappointed fantasy owners. The positive spin is the Patriots’ depth chart has few playmaking roadblocks in his way.

Adonai Mitchell, Indianapolis Colts

After tearing up the combine, many expected Adonai Mitchell to be selected much higher. He fell to the Cots at 52nd overall.

Mitchell began his collegiate career at Georgia where he didn’t top a 13% yardage share in his first two seasons. As a junior he transferred to Texas and broke out to a 32% dominator rating. It’s important to note that his dominator rating was bolstered by catching 44% of Texas’ receiving touchdowns last season – he accounted for just 21% of the receiving yardage.

At 6’2” 205 lbs., Mitchell ran a 4.34 forty – that’s good for a 98th percentile speed score. Mitchell also leaped his way to a 96th percentile burst score. Mitchell’s freak athleticism certainly helped him in the red area.

Sim	Player	School	DP	CYMS	CTDMS	FYMS	FTD/G	40	WT
100	Adonai Mitchell	Texas	52	0.16	0.24	0.21	0.79	4.34	205
94	Parris Campbell	Ohio State	59	0.17	0.15	0.21	0.86	4.31	205
90	Terry McLaurin	Ohio State	76	0.12	0.18	0.15	0.92	4.35	208
76	D.K. Metcalf	Ole Miss	64	0.18	0.26	0.23	0.71	4.33	228
60	Louis Murphy	Florida	##	0.19	0.19	0.22	0.5	4.32	203
60	Terrace Marshall Jr.	LSU	59	0.17	0.3	0.34	1.43	4.4	205
57	Miles Boykin	Notre Dame	93	0.19	0.23	0.26	0.62	4.42	220
54	Mecole Hardman	Georgia	56	0.17	0.2	0.17	0.54	4.33	187
50	Nico Collins	Michigan	89	0.23	0.28	0.24	0.58	4.43	215
48	John Metchie	Alabama	44	0.2	0.14	0.25	0.62		187
46	Bruce Ellington	South Carolina	##	0.2	0.23	0.25	0.67	4.45	197

Similar prospects like Terry McLaurin, D.K. Metcalf, and Nico Collins highlight that Mitchell’s athleticism could shine at the NFL level. Behind Michael Pittman, Mitchell has a clear path to targets. The Athletic’s James Boyd reported that Mitchell “continues to flash his potential” during Colts OTAs.

Malachi Corley, New York Jets

Malachi Corley was selected by the New York Jets with the 65th overall selection.

A four-year player at Western Kentucky, Corley broke out as a junior with a 26% dominator rating. Despite seeing a drop in raw stats, he upped his dominator rating to 31% as a senior. Corley saw most of his targets at a depth of 5 or fewer yards and specialized at evading tackles and gaining yards after contact.

Corley did not participate at the NFL Combine due to injury.

Sim	Player	School	DP	CYMS	CTDMS	FYMS	FTD/G	40	WT
100	Malachi Corley	Western Kentucky	65	0.2	0.21	0.28	0.92
96	Ty Montgomery	Stanford	94	0.23	0.21	0.24	0.27	4.55	221
93	Patrick Turner	USC	87	0.17	0.17	0.22	0.77	4.59	223
92	Mohamed Massaquoi	Georgia	50	0.2	0.19	0.25	0.62	4.51	210
85	Josh Huff	Oregon	86	0.22	0.22	0.3	0.92	4.51	206
81	Austin Pettis	Boise State	78	0.2	0.3	0.23	0.77	4.56	209
81	Michael Wilson	Stanford	94	0.19	0.2	0.26	0.67	4.58	213
80	Cody Latimer	Indiana	56	0.22	0.25	0.3	0.75	4.52	215
75	Josh Palmer	Tennessee	77	0.18	0.13	0.23	0.4	4.51	210
75	Jonathan Mingo	Ole Miss	39	0.21	0.2	0.29	0.42	4.46	220
70	Amari Rodgers	Clemson	85	0.15	0.14	0.24	0.58	4.52	212

The similar prospects don’t paint a pretty picture. However, Ty Montgomery was successful with Aaron Rodgers in a hybrid role. If Mike Williams isn’t available in his return from injury, Corley could be Rodgers’ WR2 behind Garrett Wilson. Rodgers called Corley “his favorite receiver in the draft.”