As a rookie, De’Von Achane put up arguably the most efficient rushing season ever. This year, he presents a unique opportunity to draft a player who can turn limited and even low-value touches into major fantasy production. A rare player with multiple avenues to league-wrecking upside, here’s why you should draft him in 2024.
Promising Prospect Profile
De’Von Achane does not have the prototypical size (5’9″, 188 lbs) of a star running back, but his speed (99th percentile 40-yard dash), production (91st percentile dominator rating), and pass-catching prowess (94th percentile target share as an RB) made him a perfect fit for the Miami Dolphins and coach Mike McDaniel’s scheme (courtesy of PlayerProfiler):
It’s no surprise that Chris Johnson (as shown above) has been listed as his most comparable player per PlayerProfiler. Frankly, he has a chance to be even better considering the unimaginable efficiency he displayed during his 2023 rookie campaign.
Record-Breaking Efficiency…As A Rookie
It’s not every season that a 3rd-round rookie can be catapulted into stardom with a mere 103 rushes and 27 receptions. In 2023, Achane ranked a mere 55th amongst all running backs in snaps, 47th in carries, and had only four games in which he played 50% or more of the snaps (data courtesy of FantasyPros).
Despite this waiver wire-level opportunity, Achane was the RB5 in PPR points per game with 17.5 – a number that goes up to 18.9 (RB3) if you don’t count games in which he played 10% or fewer of the snaps (adjusting for injury).
Achane hit a 40% snap rate in eight games. He was a top-24 RB for the week in seven of those contests and top-12 in five of them, averaging 115 yards per game. But he only hit a 60% snap share three times and never surpassed 63%.
This is good news for 2024: he’s shown that he doesn’t have to play the majority of the snaps to be a smash hit for your fantasy leagues. He can turn a handful of low-value touches into game-breaking fantasy scores, which is rarified Jamaal Charles/Chris Johnson-esque air. Achane ranked 19th in carries of 10+ yards, t-4th in carries of 20+ yards, and 1st or t-1st in carries of 30+, 40+, and 50+ yards. Those are truly bonkers numbers considering 46 different running backs had more carries than him.
Breaking The Advanced Metrics
We have more quantitative and qualitative tools than ever to measure efficiency, many of which correlate to fantasy superstardom. Here are just a few notable metrics in which Achane dominated:
- 1st in fantasy points per touch (1.36, most by a rookie in NFL history)
- 1st in yards per carry (NFL-record 7.8, 2nd place is 6.4)
- 1st in Breakaway Run rate (53.4%)
- 1st in Next Gen’s Rushing Yards Over Expected
- 1st in PFF rushing grade
- 6th in PFF receiving grade among RBs
- 1st in yards after contact per attempt
- 2nd in attempts per touchdown
- t-3rd in missed tackle percentage
- 1st in evasion percentage
- 6th in 1st-down percentage
Again, this is the result of a perfect match of scheme and player, as McDaniel’s motion-heavy misdirection offense is tailor-made for a player like Achane. Despite his smaller stature, Achane lapped the league in yards after contact per attempt. Combine that with his consistency in hitting the McDaniel-designed rushing lanes (1st in Designed Gap Percentage) and his long speed, it’s no wonder he consistently churned out chunk gains.
Similarly Efficient Rookies
To show just how impressive his rookie season was, here is a list of rookie RBs (age 23 or younger) since 2000 to average 5+ yards per carry (min. 100 carries) and catch 20 passes:
| Player | Year | Att | Y/A | Rec |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 2023 | 182 | 5.2 | 52 |
| De'Von Achane | 2023 | 103 | 7.8 | 27 |
| Travis Etienne | 2022 | 220 | 5.1 | 35 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 2020 | 232 | 5 | 36 |
| Devin Singletary | 2019 | 151 | 5.1 | 29 |
| Saquon Barkley | 2018 | 261 | 5 | 91 |
| Nick Chubb | 2018 | 192 | 5.2 | 20 |
| Kerryon Johnson | 2018 | 118 | 5.4 | 32 |
| Alvin Kamara | 2017 | 120 | 6.1 | 81 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 2016 | 322 | 5.1 | 32 |
| Jordan Howard | 2016 | 252 | 5.2 | 29 |
| Jeremy Hill | 2014 | 222 | 5.1 | 27 |
| DeMarco Murray | 2011 | 164 | 5.5 | 26 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 2006 | 166 | 5.7 | 46 |
| Clinton Portis | 2002 | 273 | 5.5 | 33 |
His combination of rushing efficiency and receiving potential puts him on par with some of the best fantasy running backs of the millennium. Most, if not all of these players had sophomore ADP higher than Achane’s current 2nd/3rd-round turn price.
Raising The Threshold & Including Non-Rookies
But Achane’s historic 2023 performance needs to be contextualized even further to show his potential. Let’s narrow the parameters to look for uber-elite comparisons who, like Achane, had a nose for the endzone. Here is a list of RBs since 2000 – rookie or otherwise – to average 5.5 yards per carry (min. 100 carries), catch 20 passes and score 6+ touchdowns:
| Player | Year | Att | Y/A | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Von Achane | 2023 | 103 | 7.8 | 27 | 11 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 2021 | 332 | 5.5 | 40 | 20 |
| Nick Chubb | 2021 | 228 | 5.5 | 20 | 9 |
| Aaron Jones | 2020 | 201 | 5.5 | 47 | 11 |
| Aaron Jones | 2018 | 133 | 5.5 | 26 | 9 |
| Alvin Kamara | 2017 | 120 | 6.1 | 81 | 14 |
| Adrian Peterson | 2012 | 348 | 6 | 40 | 13 |
| C.J. Spiller | 2012 | 207 | 6 | 43 | 8 |
| Fred Jackson | 2011 | 170 | 5.5 | 39 | 6 |
| Jamaal Charles | 2010 | 230 | 6.4 | 45 | 8 |
| Chris Johnson | 2009 | 358 | 5.6 | 50 | 16 |
| Jamaal Charles | 2009 | 190 | 5.9 | 40 | 9 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 2008 | 273 | 5.5 | 22 | 20 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 2006 | 166 | 5.7 | 46 | 16 |
| Clinton Portis | 2003 | 290 | 5.5 | 38 | 14 |
| Clinton Portis | 2002 | 273 | 5.5 | 33 | 17 |
Most of the latter players were fantasy superstars for multiple seasons, and Achane is likely to join them. It was rare to get a 3rd-round price on any of these players for years after their initial breakout, making Achane a strong buy. He could regress significantly and still be among the most efficient players in the NFL
Significant Contingency Value For 2024
Achane Will Smash With A Mostert Injury…But He Doesn’t Need One
Achane’s largest non-injury concerns among fantasy drafters are the workload and presence of Raheem Mostert. Indeed, Mostert played at least half the snaps in 12/15 healthy games and saw 60% of the snaps in six of them. But Achane’s injuries and Mostert’s scoring frenzy helped create an illusion about their usage when both are active (per Jacob Gibbs):
This is going to be very close to an even split in terms of touches even if Mostert plays more snaps like he did last season. That is a huge, huge if for a 32-year-old RB who is coming off of a career-high 209 carries with a checkered injury history. This contingency coming to fruition for Achane is just one way he could approach his fantasy ceiling in 2024.
Mostert getting hurt would also open up more total goal-line work for Achane, but if he stays healthy? No worries, Achane scored 8 of his 11 touchdowns while inside the 10-yard line. They already trust him to be a touchdown scorer, especially in the passing game: despite such limited playing time and usage, he was t-5th among all RBs in total targets inside the 10.
A Mostert injury could be just as impactful for 4th-round rookie Jaylen Wright, who profiles as an early-down back as a rookie (44th percentile target share, 30 total receptions in college). Wright won’t be the reason Achane comes off the field, but he looks worthy of a late-round stab in fantasy drafts anyway due to his speed and situation.
Achane isn’t likely to be receiving 18+ carries per game consistently, but 10-12 is certainly a reasonable median expectation and more than enough to dominate fantasy leagues – especially if the Dolphins pass more.
Passing Game Involvement: More Volume Incoming?
We know Raheem Mostert dominated rushing work, snaps, and goal-line carries like never before in his career en route to an overall RB5 finish. But the consistent in-game situations that allowed such opportunity are due for regression:
Jaylen Waddle, Tyreek Hill, and Tua Tagovailoa could put up some looney tunes numbers in 2024 pic.twitter.com/EiDo3tieO6
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) July 2, 2024
Note the final paragraph in the above image:
“The Dolphins were playing with a lead on 50% of offensive drives in 2023, only the 49ers, Ravens, and Lions had a higher rate. Miami was one of four teams to play with a double-digit lead on 50+ separate drives and one of two to play with a 20+ point lead on 20+ different drives. As a result, we saw Miami run the ball an abnormal amount. The Dolphins ranked 17th in pass rate (57%) on the year. But, their rate when leading or trailing by six or fewer points was the third-highest at 63%.”
With Aaron Rodgers back and Drake Maye potentially improving the Patriots’ offense, their division games may not be the cakewalk they were last season. If the games are more competitive than last year, it’s good news for Achane (per RotoViz).
| Player | Snaps | Targets | Targets/Game | Routes/Target | Yards/Route |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Von Achane | 300 | 27 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 1.3 |
| Raheem Mostert | 555 | 32 | 2.1 | 6.1 | 0.9 |
While playing nearly double the snaps, Mostert barely bested Achane in raw receiving opportunity while being less efficient and was targeted on a smaller percentage of routes. McDaniel is reportedly coming up with even more ways to get Achane involved this season, likely through the air.
It’s nearly impossible that the Dolphins run as much as they did last season, and this favors Achane’s fantasy prospects over Mostert’s. If Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle were to miss time, we’d certainly see an even more notable uptick in Achane’s usage.
Conclusion: “This Guy Is Going To Be A Freaking Superstar”
Even if everything stays similar to 2023 and none of Achane’s contingency value is realized, he’s still likely to return value at cost. Other RBs priced around him have narrower paths to their ceiling: Saquon Barkley needs the Eagles to run fewer “Tush Pushes” and pass more often to their RBs, while Kyren Williams needs to hold off Blake Corum and continue to perform without meaningful receiving work.
Achane’s talent and usage mean that the chaos and unpredictabilities of the NFL season (missed time from Mostert, Hill, Waddle, better injury luck for Achane himself, increased passing volume, more urgency to score, etc.) are far more likely to work to his advantage. He may have the most inherent “anti-fragility” of any of the high-priced 2024 fantasy running backs.
Few players can turn just a few touches into a fantasy-winning week, but Achane is one of them. He’s the ultimate home-run pick who is capable of beating 11 other owners in your 2024 fantasy leagues. Beat writer Travis Wingfield, after seeing the Dolphins’ recent practices, is even more hyperbolic as he compares Achane to both Tyreek Hill and Christian McCaffrey:
De’Von Achane hype from @WingfieldNFL (top MIA beat) on a recent pod:
“My god, De’Von Achane is going to have a monster year. This might be the next Christian McCaffrey in terms of overall versatility and usage. This guy is going to be a freaking superstar.”
Full quote👇 pic.twitter.com/CGCRrdSboo
— Wolf of Roto Street (@RotoStreetWolf) July 6, 2024
