Casual owners frequently struggle with who to select in the late rounds. As a Zero RB guy, I am generally taking swings at interesting running back profiles in the late rounds. These are players who have a wide range of outcomes: they could be early season inactives, but they could also be much more involved than the market expects.
Here are five intriguing late-round running back targets. All are being drafted after pick 170 per current Apex ADP. Players who are selected in fewer than 25 percent of drafts are listed as undrafted.
Ray Davis – ADP 172
A fourth-round pick by the Bills, Ray Davis was the 8th running back selected in the 2024 NFL Draft.
Davis was coming off a season at Kentucky in which he scored 20 total touchdowns and caught 29 passes for 317 receiving yards. Despite his advanced age, he dominated touches in his backfield and forced missed tackles at a high rate – something that is underappreciated by the market.
He then ran a 4.52 forty at 211 lbs., good for a 70th percentile speed score.
Starter James Cook is a very good player, but the Bills have shown a desire to include a second running back. Last year 33-year-old Latavius Murray started four games for the Bills, rushing 79 times for just 300 yards (3.8 yards per carry). Despite the ineffectiveness, he rushed for four touchdowns, twice as many as Cook. The Bills gave another 65 carries to Ty Johnson, Damien Harris, and Leonard Fournette.
With Joe Brady leading the Bills shift to a more run-heavy offense, there’s potential for Davis to be heavily involved. His situation also features significant contingent value if there’s an unfortunate Cook injury.
Audric Estimé – ADP 176.9
Many have already spilled ink about how the Broncos could be among the league’s best at generating running back scoring. That much is known, who will score the points is much more of a question.
Javonte Williams is expected to start but a beat writer’s report that he might get cut led to a big decrease in his ADP. Jaleel McLaughlin has received his share of buzz but is a 187-lb. back who saw his playing time decrease down the stretch last season.
In the fifth round, the Broncos selected Audric Estimé. Estimé dominated touches at Notre Dame, rushing for 1,341 yards and scoring 18 touchdowns as a junior. Still not 21, Estimé has youth on his side.
Estimé was expected to be drafted higher but disappointed at the combine, running a 4.71 forty. However, speed was never expected to be his strong suit as a 221 lb. back and he improved his 40-time at his Pro Day.
In training camp, beat writers have been impressed by Estimé. It doesn’t hurt that head coach Sean Payton loves him.
#Broncos HC Sean Payton on Audric Estime:
“When the draft started, every once in a while there’s a player you’d say, ‘When this thing’s all over with, I’d love to have this player.’ And, fortunately, we were able to get this player… He’s smart, he’s tough, and I like his size.” pic.twitter.com/1XUzB6t2Bb
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) July 26, 2024
Bucky Irving – ADP 177.8
I wrote about Bucky Irving earlier this offseason. In terms of production, he’s arguably the best back behind Jonathon Brooks. He fell because he underperformed at the combine as a smaller back. Regardless, he forced missed tackles at the highest rate in this class and his closest comp is Kyren Williams.
Todd Bowles has noticed his special ability and spoke Irving up to reporters.
#Bucs HC Todd Bowles on Bucky Irving:
“He can make the first guy miss more often than not, and that’s a rare trait to have in this ball game… To make a guy miss, the first guy miss, and potentially have big play ability is something that we didn’t have a lot of last year.” pic.twitter.com/h23JAmht2x
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) May 10, 2024
When you consider that Rachaad White was among the worst running backs in terms of evasion percentage, it’s easy to see why the Buccaneers selected Irving. Out of running backs with at least 100 carries, only eight had a lower evasion percentage than White.
| Player | OFF | GM | Att | Yds/Att | Evasion% | FirstDown% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | CLE | 15 | 142 | 3 | 4 | 27 |
| Joshua Kelley | LAC | 15 | 100 | 3.9 | 7 | 20 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | NE | 18 | 195 | 3.4 | 8 | 17 |
| Gus Edwards | BAL | 17 | 208 | 4.1 | 9 | 25 |
| Alvin Kamara | NO | 14 | 196 | 3.9 | 9 | 24 |
| Tyler Allgeier | ATL | 18 | 200 | 3.6 | 10 | 20 |
| A.J. Dillon | GB | 15 | 178 | 3.4 | 10 | 18 |
| Jamaal Williams | NO | 13 | 112 | 2.9 | 10 | 19 |
| Rachaad White | TB | 18 | 293 | 3.7 | 11 | 17 |
| Saquon Barkley | NYG | 15 | 256 | 3.8 | 11 | 20 |
Will Shipley – ADP Undrafted
The great Shawn Siegele wrote a brilliant article about Will Shipley, I highly recommend reading it.
Shipley played extensively as a freshman and dominated backfield touches as a sophomore, amassing over 1,400 total yards and 15 touchdowns. He was involved as a receiver throughout his college career, catching 85 passes.
Shipley performed at the combine, running a 4.42 forty at 206 lbs. His pro day, which should be approached with a little skepticism, featured a 4.39 forty, 6.81 three-cone, and 38.5-inch vertical.
While he’s stuck behind Saquon Barkley on the depth chart, Barkley hasn’t been the same player that he was early in his career. During his first two seasons, Barkley averaged 4.8 yards per carry and 6 yards per target. Over the last three years, he has fallen to 4.1 yards per carry and just 4.6 yards per target.
Shipley is drawing rave reviews at camp and is routinely receiving first-team touches.
Will Shipley has had an awesome few days of practice
Is starting to routinely get 1st team touches on offense: pic.twitter.com/1MZ7Ny95Ap
— Eliot Shorr-Parks (@EliotShorrParks) July 30, 2024
Dylan Laube – ADP Undrafted
Dylan Laube dominated backfield touches for New Hampshire. He didn’t perform well as a rusher but did score 33 touchdowns in his final two collegiate seasons. An impressive receiver, Laube caught 68 passes for 699 yards as a senior.
Laube ran a mediocre forty, but a 10.86 agility score is 97th percentile. Agility scores have been one of the skeleton keys for identifying pass-catching running backs.
While he’s unlikely to dominate the Raiders backfield, he does have skills as a receiver that Zamir White and Alexander Mattison don’t. White has caught 15 passes for 98 yards in two years as a pro. Mattison dropped to an abysmal 4.4 yards per target on 44 targets last season. It would not be a surprise if Laube earned third-down snaps on a Raiders team that could be playing behind regularly.
He’s making a name for himself in training camp.
6th-round pick Dylan Laube continues to open eyes here in #Raiders Camp.
Antonio Pierce called him “special and gritty.” Said his speed surprises you. Went on to say he’s going to be a “difficult matchup” for teams to deal with. @UNH_Football pic.twitter.com/w80vjI2c98
— Logan Reever (@loganreever) July 26, 2024
