The title is a little misleading because generally, I’m fading most veteran wide receivers. I want to draft players before their increase in price – wide receivers who are ascending in their careers.
I sometimes receive emails about “proven players” – in this case, it would be a wide receiver “who has done it before.” Unfortunately, I view the NFL as a young man’s game. No player is guaranteed production. One significant injury or decrease in efficiency can be enough to signal the end for some players. The peak age studies I’ve done for wide receivers and running backs show how short the shelf life is for an NFL player.
In this article, let’s look at why Calvin Ridley is a player I do not plan on drafting this season.
Ridley’s Career
Albeit an older prospect, Ridley was a good college player. However, he entered the NFL as a 24-year-old rookie. Still, he was excellent as a rookie and I wrote about how his secondary breakout was coming in 2020. He did not disappoint, compiling 1,374 yards and 9 TDs en route to a WR5 finish.
After five games in 2021, Ridley announced he would be stepping away from football due to mental health reasons. During those five games, he averaged just 5.4 yards per target after averaging 9.3 during his first three seasons. He then missed the 2022 season after violating the NFL’s gambling policy. Sitting out from the NFL for an extended period can have negative consequences for production.
Last season Ridley returned to the NFL, catching 76 of 136 targets for 1,016 yards and eight TDs. He averaged 7.5 yards per target and finished as WR19.
29-Year-Old with Decreasing Efficiency
It’s always concerning drafting players with decreasing efficiency – it’s even more concerning when they’re 29 years old.
Using the RotoViz Screener, we can compare Ridley to previous players who underperformed their workload at 29 years old.
Note that the RotoViz Screener does not include Week 18 so his season is incomplete, Ridley had a good final game but it does not change the fact that he strongly underperformed his expected points. Ridley finished with -17.2 fantasy points over expectation.
Out of players with at least 90 targets, Ridley finished with the 6th most points under expectation.
| PLAYER | TEAM | AGE | PPR | reFPOE | REC | reTD | reEP | TGT | reYD | YPT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson | NYJ | 23 | 211.8 | -52.7 | 93 | 3 | 264.5 | 163 | 1008 | 6.2 |
| Davante Adams | LV | 31 | 250.3 | -34.3 | 98 | 7 | 284.6 | 168 | 1103 | 6.6 |
| Elijah Moore | CLE | 23 | 136.1 | -30.4 | 59 | 2 | 165.4 | 102 | 640 | 6.3 |
| Marquise Brown | ARI | 26 | 134.7 | -26.5 | 51 | 4 | 158.9 | 101 | 574 | 5.7 |
| Chris Godwin | TB | 27 | 195.7 | -20.7 | 77 | 2 | 207 | 126 | 973 | 7.7 |
| Calvin Ridley | JAC | 29 | 205.3 | -17.2 | 70 | 7 | 220.2 | 127 | 910 | 7.2 |
| Tyler Lockett | SEA | 31 | 183.3 | -14.6 | 77 | 4 | 197.9 | 119 | 823 | 6.9 |
| Tyler Boyd | CIN | 29 | 143.4 | -11.1 | 66 | 2 | 155.4 | 96 | 663 | 6.9 |
Below are other 29-year-old wide receivers, since 2000, with at least 100 targets who underperformed their expected points by 10 or more.
| PLAYER | TEAM | SEAS | AGE | REC | TGT | reYD | reTD | reFPOE | YPT | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Fitzgerald | ARI | 2012 | 29 | 71 | 156 | 798 | 4 | -79.1 | 5.1 | 174.8 |
| Darrell Jackson | SF | 2007 | 29 | 46 | 104 | 497 | 3 | -56 | 4.8 | 113.7 |
| Keyshawn Johnson | TB | 2001 | 29 | 106 | 180 | 1266 | 1 | -49.1 | 7 | 238.6 |
| Amani Toomer | NYG | 2003 | 29 | 63 | 152 | 1057 | 5 | -40.9 | 7 | 199.2 |
| Dez Bryant | DAL | 2017 | 29 | 68 | 131 | 839 | 6 | -35.2 | 6.4 | 187.5 |
| Johnnie Morton | DET | 2000 | 29 | 61 | 116 | 788 | 3 | -31.8 | 6.8 | 162.3 |
| Chris Chambers | LAC | 2007 | 29 | 66 | 129 | 970 | 4 | -23.3 | 7.5 | 188.2 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | DEN | 2016 | 29 | 79 | 137 | 1032 | 5 | -21.9 | 7.5 | 212.6 |
| Darnay Scott | CIN | 2001 | 29 | 57 | 103 | 819 | 2 | -20.1 | 8 | 150.9 |
| Eric Moulds | BUF | 2002 | 29 | 100 | 180 | 1292 | 10 | -18.9 | 7.2 | 289.9 |
| Harry Douglas | ATL | 2013 | 29 | 85 | 132 | 1067 | 2 | -18.2 | 8.1 | 203.7 |
| Muhsin Muhammad | CAR | 2002 | 29 | 63 | 108 | 823 | 3 | -17.4 | 7.6 | 167.3 |
| Calvin Ridley | JAC | 2023 | 29 | 70 | 127 | 910 | 7 | -17.2 | 7.2 | 205.3 |
| Dwayne Bowe | KC | 2013 | 29 | 57 | 103 | 673 | 5 | -16.4 | 6.5 | 154.3 |
| Jerry Porter | OAK | 2007 | 29 | 44 | 103 | 705 | 6 | -16.2 | 6.8 | 150.5 |
| Demaryius Thomas | DEN | 2016 | 29 | 90 | 144 | 1083 | 5 | -10.5 | 7.5 | 230.3 |
| Curtis Conway | LAC | 2000 | 29 | 53 | 104 | 712 | 5 | -10.4 | 6.8 | 157.3 |
This is how the players performed in the following season.
| PLAYER | REC | TGT | reYD | reTD | reFPOE | YPT | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Fitzgerald | 82 | 134 | 954 | 10 | 10.4 | 7.1 | 238.2 |
| Darrell Jackson | 12 | 21 | 190 | 1 | 2.8 | 9 | 37 |
| Keyshawn Johnson | 76 | 142 | 1088 | 5 | -16.4 | 7.7 | 218.8 |
| Amani Toomer | 51 | 107 | 747 | 0 | -43 | 7 | 125.7 |
| Dez Bryant | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Johnnie Morton | 77 | 144 | 1154 | 4 | -8.8 | 8 | 217 |
| Chris Chambers | 33 | 64 | 462 | 5 | 3.5 | 7.2 | 109.3 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 47 | 92 | 555 | 2 | -34.2 | 6 | 114.5 |
| Darnay Scott | 22 | 35 | 218 | 1 | -4.9 | 6.2 | 51.2 |
| Eric Moulds | 64 | 121 | 780 | 1 | -47.1 | 6.4 | 148 |
| Harry Douglas | 51 | 74 | 556 | 2 | -2.1 | 7.5 | 120.6 |
| Muhsin Muhammad | 54 | 100 | 837 | 3 | -10.8 | 8.4 | 155.5 |
| Dwayne Bowe | 60 | 95 | 754 | 1 | -13.3 | 7.9 | 141.4 |
| Jerry Porter | 11 | 29 | 181 | 1 | -16.6 | 6.2 | 35.1 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 83 | 140 | 949 | 5 | -21.4 | 6.8 | 207.9 |
| Curtis Conway | 71 | 126 | 1125 | 6 | 11.5 | 8.9 | 237.1 |
Below is the difference in PPR points for the age 29 season vs the age 30 season.
| PLAYER | PPR Difference |
|---|---|
| Larry Fitzgerald | 63.4 |
| Darrell Jackson | -76.7 |
| Keyshawn Johnson | -19.8 |
| Amani Toomer | -73.5 |
| Dez Bryant | -187.5 |
| Johnnie Morton | 54.7 |
| Chris Chambers | -78.9 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | -98.1 |
| Darnay Scott | -99.7 |
| Eric Moulds | -141.9 |
| Harry Douglas | -83.1 |
| Muhsin Muhammad | -11.8 |
| Dwayne Bowe | -12.9 |
| Jerry Porter | -115.4 |
| Demaryius Thomas | -22.4 |
| Curtis Conway | 79.8 |
Larry Fitzgerald dealt with poor quarterback play in 2012 and he bounced back the following season. His poor production likely can at least partially be blamed on John Skelton, Kevin Kolb, and Ryan Lindley. After a successful NFL career, Darrell Jackson retired after scoring just 37 PPR points in the following season. Keyshawn Johnson didn’t fall off too badly but still scored 20 fewer PPR points while playing one more game. Amani Toomer’s production fell by 70+ PPR points, despite being a good NFL pro.
Dez Bryant missed the entire 2018 season with an achilles injury. One of the few, Johnnie Morton outscored the previous season by 50+ PPR fantasy points. For Chris Chambers, this was the beginning of the end, scoring almost 80 fewer PPR points in the following season. Emmanual Sanders was relevant again – but never reached his previously high ceiling. Eric Moulds stuck around but his production fell by over 140 points in the following season. He never reached the explosive efficiency he reached as a young NFL player.
Muhsin Muhammad had a very impressive age-31 season, the best of his career. But still didn’t perform as a 30-year-old. For Dwayne Bowe, this was the beginning of the end. Same with Jerry Porter, who retired after his age-30 season. After an excellent career, Demaryius Thomas was never the same after his age-29 season. He retired as a New York Jet at age 32. Curtis Conway was one of the few hits as a 30-year-old, outproducing the previous season by almost 80 PPR points.
Findings
This is an extremely small sample size, but we know how hard it is for older players to produce. And we’re not just looking at an older player, we’re looking at an older player with decreasing efficiency. Let us note that Conway and Morton, two of the three hits, did so in 2000 when older players seemed to be given a longer leash.
We know from the Wide Receiver Peak Age study that from 2000-2009, WRs under 30 years old accounted for just 71.7% of the peak age seasons. When looking at 2010-Present, that number jumps to 84.1%. It’s harder to produce as an older player in today’s NFL.
In Summary
None of this is to say that Ridley cannot bounce back. He’s a talented veteran that the Titans prioritized and without Derrick Henry, the Titans should throw a lot more.
However, the offensive outlook doesn’t seem to inspire confidence. After throwing for four touchdowns in his first game, Will Levis threw for just four TDs in his final seven games. That includes removing his 8th game in which he was injured and didn’t perform well.
Taking Ridley requires a leap of faith that I don’t have. The data shows how hard it is for older receivers with decreased efficiency to produce.
At an ADP of WR36 on Apex, I’d prefer to draft younger players like Jayden Reed or more efficient players like Rashee Rice or Keenan Allen. I’m also happy to wait and take a younger player like Xavier Worthy, Rome Odunze, or Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
