As the analytics revolution has come to dominate both the NFL gridiron and fantasy football, the value (and thus cost) of those star wide receivers we love has risen drastically. You can no longer score four or five of the top 15-20 receivers in most PPR fantasy drafts, especially when you’re desiring a high-scoring quarterback, tight end, and/or an early-round running back. Who are a few cheaper wide receivers you can target to create a league-winning roster?
Josh Downs – ADP: 181.2 (WR64)
After a very productive collegiate career, early-declare Josh Downs was selected in the 3rd round by the Colts in 2023. He is a bit undersized at 5’9″, 171lbs (although there is plenty of data to show that wide receiver weight is becoming less and less of a concern), but he had some fantastic metrics including a 69th percentile dominator rating, 97th percentile target share, and an 87th percentile breakout age during his time at North Carolina.
Thought to be the clear number two or three option in the passing offense, Downs proved to be arguably their best receiver before going down with a knee sprain about halfway through the season. Here are his splits compared with Michael Pittman through Week 9:
| Player | Targets | Yards | Yards/Route Run | Yards/Target | PPR Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 61 | 422 | 1.81 | 6.9 | 93.2 |
| Josh Downs | 56 | 473 | 1.98 | 8.5 | 99.3 |
Unfortunately, Downs’ production tailed off heavily the rest of the season as he attempted to play through the explosion-sapping knee sprain while Pittman dominated targets from Gardner Minshew. But this provides us with a fantastic buying opportunity for 2024.
Josh Downs has drawn rave reviews from the Colts’ GM as well as receiver charting guru Matt Harmon. it appears that 2nd-round athletic freak Adonai Mitchell is battling Alec Pierce for the WR3 job, cementing Downs as a clear starter in this fast-paced offense.
Downs is a quality late-round version of another sophomore receiver who is receiving far more hype, but with far less target competition:
Jayden Reed rookie season
– 94 targets
– 64 receptions
– 793 yardsJosh Downs rookie season
– 98 targets
– 68 receptions
– 771 yardsReed is being drafted as the WR34.
Downs is being drafted as the WR63.
— Dave Kluge (@DaveKluge) July 22, 2024
It can’t hurt that he has been dominating training camp and while this all depends on Anthony Richardson’s success as a passer, that is more than baked into his cost.
Michael Wilson – ADP: 204.8 (WR74)
Michael Wilson was a good prospect coming out of Stanford who was above average in almost every combine and production metric during his collegiate career, including 75th+ percentiles in burst score, agility score, and breakout age.
Admittedly, it was tough sledding for every Carindals’ wide receiver in 2024 as they struggled through the Josh Dobbs experience and a still-recovering Kyler Murray. But there is evidence that despite quarterback ineptitude, Wilson was their best receiver on a per-route basis:
9 cool things I learned from the 132 things @SmolaDS learned while doing his projections 🐐
1. By comparison, ARI rookie WR Michael Wilson’s YPRR efficiency doesn’t look so bad! pic.twitter.com/c7s2k99Ywm
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) June 28, 2024
2024 appears to be a very different year in Arizona. When healthy, Kyler Murray has consistently been a serviceable passer and will certainly support rookie star Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride. But Wilson profiles as a big body who, at minimum, will be a deep shot and red-zone threat similar to another productive NFL receiver:
Some rookie year comps
Gabe Davis
Targets – 62
Yards – 599
TPRR – 13.8%
YPRR – 1.33Michael Wilson
Targets – 58
Yards – 565
TPRR – 14.2%
YPRR – 1.36
Underdog ADP – 174.3Starting deep threat heading into year 2 tied to Kyler Murray and is basically free in drafts? I’m in
— Dalton Kates (@Dalton_Kates) July 16, 2024
Wilson has gotten off to a hot start at training camp as well. Already running ahead of veteran signee Zay Jones, Wilson has turned plenty of heads in training camp. Albert Breer noted:
“One name I wouldn’t sleep on offensively would be Michael Wilson, who already looks like a seasoned pro coming off a promising rookie year—reminding some on a staff full of guys who once coached in Minnesota a little bit of Adam Thielen in that he’s big, smart and consistent.”
Here is a preview of what we might see in the regular season:
#AZCardinals WR Michael Wilson with a GREAT catch pic.twitter.com/Asf4vSTPuh
— Donnie Druin (@DonnieDruin) August 2, 2024
Jalen Tolbert – ADP: 254 (WR96)
It has been a (somewhat understandably) slow start to 2022 3rd-rounder Tolbert’s NFL career as he gets used to the jump from South Alabama to the NFL. Tolbert is a relatively average athlete, but he boasted two elite collegiate metrics: an insane 51.2% dominator rating (97th percentile) and a 33.4% target share (96th percentile).
While Tolbert is very unlikely to become a star, he is in the perfect situation to still make an impact for 2024 fantasy leagues. The Cowboys are desperate for another pass-catcher to step up behind superstar CeeDee Lamb, who is currently holding out of camp in search of a new deal.
Brandin Cooks is the nominal WR2, but he turns 31 in September and is no longer the difference-maker he once was. Take a look at his steep decline on a per-route basis over the past three seasons:
| Season | Age | Routes | Targets/Route Run | Yards/Route Run | PPR Points/Route |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 28 | 503 | 0.27 | 2.06 | 0.45 |
| 2022 | 29 | 407 | 0.23 | 1.72 | 0.36 |
| 2023 | 30 | 497 | 0.16 | 1.32 | 0.35 |
Once wide receivers begin to decline at his age, they rarely return to their former efficiency. Cooks, like teammate Jake Ferguson, gets by purely on compiling routes and targets on one of the league’s most pass-heavy offenses.
Reports out of Dallas are that Tolbert looks like a completely different player heading into his third season:
- Brandin Cooks: “I’m telling you he’s going to crush it. He’s ready.”
- Dak Prescott: “I don’t want to put that pressure on him, but we spent a lot of time together. … My trust is super, super high in him. I trust him with any route, wherever it is, against whoever.”
- Head Coach Mike McCarthy:
Sounds like ADP might be a little light on Jalen Tolbert who is having a strong camp and has almost no competition on roster pic.twitter.com/3wqlNieWMl
— Davis Mattek (@DavisMattek) August 1, 2024
Andrei Iosivas – ADP: Undrafted
Almost a complete afterthought after the Bengals drafted promising receiver Jermaine Burton in the 3rd round, Iosivas has been among the stars of the Bengals’ training camp. Let’s not forget just how much of an athletic freak Iosivas was coming out of Princeton last season:
He also accomplished a high-end 84th percentile dominator rating as the clear focal point of Princeton’s offense.
With a (knock on wood) fully healthy Joe Burrow and the sheer volume of available targets in this pass-first offense, there is room for a 3rd pass-catcher to be relevant here – especially considering the injury histories of Ja’Marr Chase (six missed games the past two seasons) and Tee Higgins (nine missed games the past three seasons).
Iosivas’ aforementioned training camp performance has been the talk of Cincy. Per beat reporter Paul Dehner Jr.:
“For all the hype of third-round pick Jermaine Burton and his potential to make an impact filling the role vacated by Tyler Boyd, there’s just no way to avoid the Andrei Iosivas hype.
He’s been the offensive star of camp, a trend that continued after his initial eye-popping debut playing in the slot for the first time in his life Wednesday.
Receivers coach Troy Walters called him their third-best receiver last week, and he’s looked like the best one on the field (when Higgins is given days off).”
Joe Burrow has also predicted a “big year” for Iosivas, and he showed how well he can use his size when given the opportunity during last season’s Week 18 game (2 TDs). Here is a glimpse of how he’s building on that potential scoring prowess this year:
.@JoeyB ➡️ @AndreiIosivas 👀
Training Camp | @KetteringHealth pic.twitter.com/GCesx9S66K
— Cincinnati Bengals (@Bengals) July 25, 2024
Any week where Burrow is healthy and Chase or Higgins are injured, Iosivas is likely an automatic WR3.
