With the dust of free agency finally settling, we can more reasonably predict the effect that player movement has on offenses. Quarterback movement directly affects offenses while finding league-winning running backs is still the “holy grail” of fantasy football. How do 2025’s most significant free agency signings and trades affect fantasy outlooks for all involved?
Geno Smith To The Raiders
After what amounts to one of the best QB rehab/reclamation projects in the past decade-plus, the Seahawks traded Geno Smith to the Raiders. Undoubtedly, new part-owner Tom Brady was essential in making the acquisition happen and there are already discussions about an extension for Smith (who is entering the final year of his deal). He may not be the QB of the future for Las Vegas at 35 years old, but he is likely to be the starter for the next few years after the Raiders paid the price of a 3rd-round pick.
Smith becomes an immediate upgrade to the Gardner Minshew/Aiden O’Connell two-headed “monster” of yesteryear and greatly improves the prospects of both Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers.
While the Raiders were 4th in the NFL in pass attempts last year, they were horribly inefficient. Their putrid 6.5 yards per attempt was 26th in the NFL ahead of only the Cowboys, Patriots, Bears, Panthers, Giants, and Browns while the Smith-led Seahawks were a respectable 13th.
Smith is likely just a QB2 for fantasy leagues in 2025 and TE1 Brock Bowers is already going near the 1st/2nd turn with an early ADP of 17th overall. It is Meyers who, in terms of cost, may be the biggest winner of this trade. Sneakily last year’s WR19 overall, Meyers heated up in the 2nd half of last year (per Rotoviz’s Game Splits app):
His 265-point pace from Week 9 and onward would have ranked him as the WR8 last season. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who also wins with quickness in the short and medium areas of the field as Geno’s top 2024 receiver, ranked as last year’s WR9 overall.
While those are not reasonable expectations for Meyers in 2025 (especially if they draft Tet McMillan), his current mid-7th round ADP as the WR43 is probably too low. Brady, who will surely influence some on-field strategy, is familiar with Meyers from their time together in New England. Remember that Brady ran a quick-pass, West Coast-style offense with late-round/journeymen wide receivers during his later New England years. In terms of target competition, it also doesn’t hurt that the Raiders’ WR2 is gadget player Tre Tucker and they are trying to trade TE Michael Mayer.
With Smith in the fold, you can confidently draft Bowers as early as the late 1st round and Meyers as your WR3/4 with upside.
Justin Fields To The Jets
Flaming out in Chicago after struggling to get beyond his first read and consequently taking too many sacks, Fields was unable to beat out Broncos bust Russell Wilson in the latter’s age 35-36 season. Not exactly a good sign!
But after the Zach Wilson and Aaron Rodgers disasters of the past two seasons, the Jets are likely to return to their defensive roots. This likely means a run-heavy game plan with select deep shots in the passing game. There’s no sugarcoating the fact that it’s bad news for Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall’s receiving numbers.
Those with a selective memory will remember D.J. Moore’s fantastic 2023 season (98/1,364/8) with Fields at the helm, but that ignores the ugly truth that Moore is the only receiver to average double-digit fantasy points catching passes from Justin Fields.
Even worse, Moore’s 2023 season was likely fluky as he vastly outperformed his opportunity:
Seeing a lot of “DJ Moore had his best season with Fields” comments, in regards to the Wilson-Fields connection
While true, DJ Moore was just 26th in expected fantasy points per game (13.9) in 2023, while all the way up at 10th in actual FP/G (14.1). Per @FantasyPtsData
While… https://t.co/L7RglsbtTw
— Dataroma (@ffdataroma) March 12, 2025
While Garrett Wilson is a better overall receiver than George Pickens, it’s telling that Pickens was significantly better with the below-average (by current NFL starter standards) Russell Wilson throwing him passes:
During Justin Fields’ three-year tenure with Chicago, the Bears ranked 27th, 32nd, and 31st in pass completions. We can’t expect much receiving upside from Breece Hall either, as 2021 David Montgomery is the only Fields-led RB to eclipse 40 targets.
Fields’ arrival can be considered good news for Breece’s rushing considering Field’s legendary rushing stats as a QB and the pass volume taking a hit, but he can’t be drafted as a high-end RB1 like in 2024.
Even though Fields’ contract ($20 million per year) is not long-term starter money, he’s almost certain to be the starter for all of 2025 and can still deliver high-end QB1 stats with his rushing (50.1 yards and 0.38 TDs per game for his career). Going as the QB20 in the 12th round of early 2025 drafts, he’s an upside QB2 with a sizeable range of outcomes.
Sam Darnold To The Seahawks
Speaking of resurgences, Sam Darnold’s 2024 was one for the record books. The 2018 3rd overall pick in the NFL draft, his bust status seemed cemented and reaffirmed year after year. But armed with Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson with QB whisperer Kevin O’Connell calling the shots, Darnold exploded for 4,319 yards and 35 touchdowns (both 5th in the NFL) as a superflex/2-QB league winner.
He proceeded to sign a 3-year/$100.5 million contract as Seattle’s preferred QB over Geno Smith. While Seattle appears enamored with Darnold, there’s no question that all aspects of Darnold’s coaching and supporting cast are major steps in the wrong direction.
Not only does he lose arguably the premier receivers and playcalling in the NFL, but his offensive line presents a significant downgrade as well. Per ESPN’s analytics, the Vikings ranked 5th and 2nd the past two seasons in pass block win rate, respectively. The Seahawks, on the other hand, ranked 25th and 21st. Geno Smith did a very respectable job in avoiding sacks and navigating the pocket, but that has not been one of Darnold’s strengths throughout his career.
Possessing two solid RBs along with the losses of Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf, the Seahawks are facing an uphill battle to match last year’s 593 pass attempts (7th in the NFL).
The big winner here is Jaxon Smith-Njigba, last year’s overall WR9, and likely premier breakout receiver. “JSN” erased all doubts about his ability to be a team’s top receiving weapon, rewarding the believers with a stretch-run performance for the ages after DK Metcalf sprained his MCL in Week 7:
With Metcalf failing to have over 70 yards receiving in a single game from Week 8 and onward, JSN became even more efficient with more volume. Being trusted with a much more complete route tree after Metcalf’s injury, his yards per target skyrocketed from 5.8 in Weeks 1-7 to 9.9 the rest of the season.
As an added bonus, he wins in the same areas of the field as 2024 Sam Darnold (per Rotoviz’s AYA app):
Both were best when throwing/receiving on the right side of the field at multiple levels. These areas account for over 45% of throws and targets for Darnold and JSN respectively and you can be certain that the Seahawks coaching staff is aware of this.
The signing of Cooper Kupp (more on this in a future article) should also be considered excellent news for JSN. Clearly no longer a viable NFL WR1, Kupp is still good enough to command defensive attention and man the slot whenever needed as the Seahawks’s WR2. Kupp was still very good when Puka Nacua missed time in the first half of the season, but took a massive backseat when Nacua returned from injury. He won’t be taking the reigns from JSN either, and his arrival means more JSN on the boundary. Pigeonholed as a slot receiver from 2023 until mid-2024, JSN more than proved he can win on the outside and deep:
What if we never should have wanted JSN in the Cooper Kupp-role in the first place. What if he’s actually better suited in the D.K. Metcalf role.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Career)
games w/ a single-digit aDOT: 9.7 FPG (24 games)
games w/ a double-digit aDOT: 17.1 FPG (10 games) https://t.co/iRzF2ZZIp9— Fantasy Points Data (@FantasyPtsData) March 14, 2025
While Darnold can no longer be considered a QB1 or high-end QB2 for fantasy until he proves himself in Seattle, Smith-Njigba makes for a fine selection at his WR13 ADP at the 2nd/3rd round turn. He’s probably better suited as a high-end WR2, but we at Apex are never one to doubt JSN.
Najee Harris To The Chargers
Though Harris has been a paragon of consistency (he’s never missed a game in his four-year NFL career), not necessarily in a good way. He hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire relative to his annual cost since his rookie year in 2021:
| Year | ADP | Fantasy Finish (PPG) | Total Yards | Total TDs | Receptions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 16 (RB11) | RB3 (17.7) | 1,667 | 10 | 74 |
| 2022 | 8 (RB6) | RB14 (13.1) | 1,263 | 10 | 41 |
| 2023 | 27.7 (RB9) | RB23 (11.5) | 1,205 | 8 | 29 |
| 2024 | 73.7 (RB25) | RB20 (12) | 1,326 | 6 | 36 |
While he’s good for 63 rushing yards and 0.5 TDs per game for his career, he hasn’t caught more than 41 passes since his inaugural season. A non-explosive player with a career 3.9 yards per carry mark, fantasy league champions have not been crowned via the likes of Harris: a volume runner on middling offenses who offers little in the passing game.
Last season was one of the better fantasy seasons of his career simply because his cost fell outside the top 2.5 rounds for the first time in his entire career. While he did rank 5th in 20+ yard carries behind only Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Jonathan Taylor last year, that’s essentially where the slightest hint of difference-making explosion ends.
If you’re drafting Harris (at his admittedly reasonable RB28 price tag at the 7th/8th round turn), you’re essentially banking on an outlier TD season and an unlikely increase in passing game involvement. Both of these metrics could be buoyed by increased play volume, but certainly should not be betting on any of that if 2024 was any indication:
| Year(s) | Plays/Game (NFL Rank) | RB Targets | Red Zone Opp./G |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-2023 (avg) | 68 (T-2nd) | 132 | 3.25 |
| 2024 | 63 (T-22nd) | 55 | 2.8 |
The “Harbaugh Effect” reared its ugly head (for fantasy purposes), as the Chargers’ 63 plays per game ranked ahead of only the Jets, Jaguars, and Panthers (per the RotoViz Pace Tool).
Being Jim Harbaugh’s handpicked running back and his incentive-laden contract can be considered reasons for optimism, and the Chargers had decent RB volume last year:
Chargers RB group in 2024:
12th in carries
7th in TDsNajee Harris’ 63 missed tackles forced ranked 5th among all RBs last season, per @PFF.@JoshNorris | @HaydenWinks pic.twitter.com/KCtfRk0oxM
— Underdog NFL (@Underdog__NFL) March 11, 2025
But Harris still has the younger and resurgent J.K. Dobbins to contend with, and Harbaugh was not afraid to use a committee at the goal line. Of their 19 carries inside the 5, no individual player saw more than 6.
Despite the improved environment and offensive line, Harris is extremely unlikely to become a fantasy difference-maker heading into his age-27 season. We want to target players who could significantly outperform their ADP at every point in the draft – that’s how fantasy leagues are won. Harris truly only makes sense for risk-averse owners who have done a good job in shooting for the stars at every pick until the 8th round. Owners may be better off targeting J.K. Dobbins at his RB35 ADP as a contrarian play.
