While we recently analyzed the fantasy football repercussions on QB/RB movement from trades and free agency, there has been a great deal of WR movement as well. With the rise of wide receivers in ADP in recent years and the limited number of targets to go around on offenses, we also must scrutinize these old WR faces in their new places.
DK Metcalf To The Steelers
After DK Metcalf’s promising rookie season and breakout WR7 sophomore season, there were talks of him potentially being the WR1 overall in dynasty leagues. Unfortunately, Metcalf never quite got there: his finishes from 2021-2023 were as the WR14, WR16, and WR21, respectively. But at the beginning of last season, it appeared Metcalf was on his way back to WR1 glory (courtesy of the RotoViz Game Splits app):
Pacing for WR6 overall production, an MCL sprain in the middle of the year derailed what should have been a peak age-26 season. Metcalf’s injury was likely the only remaining path to a 2024 Jaxon Smith-Njigba breakout. Holding back the beloved “JSN” before injury is something notable and certainly speaks to Metcalf’s talent.
Metcalf was subsequently traded to the Steelers for significant draft capital (52nd overall pick in the 2025 draft) and was given a four-year, $132 million extension – certainly WR1 money. George Pickens is also not the talent or prospect that JSN was, and Metcalf should be the alpha wideout in Pittsburgh. But exactly how much is that worth with Arthur Smith calling plays for the Steelers?
| Year | Seahawks Pass Att/G | Arthur Smith's Pass Att/G (Team) |
|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 23rd | 31st (TEN) |
| 2020 | 17th | 30th (TEN) |
| 2021 | 31st | 19th (ATL) |
| 2022 | 15th | 31st (ATL) |
| 2023 | 17th | 25th (ATL) |
| 2024 | 7th | 29th (PIT) |
The pass volume in Seattle was usually middle-of-the-pack, but it was practically a bonanza compared to the vast majority of Arthur Smith-led offenses. Pickens and Metcalf have overlapping skill sets as deep-threats who also win along the sidelines, and the quarterback situation could be dire if the Steelers are telling the truth about being comfortable with Mason Rudolph as their starter.
Reasons for optimism include Aaron Rodgers likely joining Metcalf in Pittsburgh and how he locked on to old pal Davante Adams (more on this below) in 2024. If Metcalf can somehow approach that target dominance, he’s going to be a solid pick at his WR27 ADP at the 4th/5th round turn. But considering Rodgers’s clear decline, the pass-volume issues, and Pickens’s presence, he’s more likely to end up as an inconsistent WR2/3 as a “better in best ball” selection for 2025 fantasy owners.
Davante Adams To The Rams
It’s tough to argue that Aaron Rodgers’s time in New York was anything but a failure, compounded by departing with a 3rd-round draft pick to reunite him with old buddy Davante Adams. But Adams still showed plenty of target-earning ability and PPR scoring prowess in his age-31 season. If his statistics with the Jets are extrapolated, we have a rare receiver who has been beating Father Time:
| Metric | Davante Adams W/ Jets (Weeks 7-18) | Rank Among WRs (Full Season) |
|---|---|---|
| PPR PPG | 17.9 | 7th |
| Targets/Route | 0.31 | T-4th |
| Target Share | 30.7% | T-1st |
| Yards/Route | 2.3 | T-18th |
He meaningfully overtook young star Garrett Wilson in the passing game and got even stronger as the year went on. Check out his per-game stats during the final six weeks of the season:
As far as landing spots go, the Rams are essentially a home run. They desperately needed another productive receiver opposite all-world Puka Nacua, and Adams certainly fits the bill. Let’s make one thing clear though: Nacua is the hands-down WR1 on this team – it won’t be a 1A/1B situation like with Wilson in New York.
Still, that will provide plenty of opportunity for the now 32-year-old Adams. When on field together last season, now-Seahawk Cooper Kupp and Nacua received a whopping 58% of all Stafford targets. Despite clearly being on the decline, Kupp still ranked 22nd in the NFL in target share from Weeks 8-17 (when he returned from his ankle injury) and 11th in Weeks 8-12 (ahead of Nacua) before he began to fell off a cliff.
Unfortunately, Adams is currently being drafted as the WR20 at the 3rd/4th round turn. Even though Adams is the rare receiver who can produce into his 30s, it is a hefty price tag for a receiver who will turn 33 in December and isn’t even the WR1 on his team. It’s tough to count out Adams with Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay running the show, but the bottom could fall out on him any season now.
Christian Kirk To The Texans
The 2024 Texans passing offense was a living, breathing example of Murphy’s Law: essentially, everything that could go wrong, indeed went wrong. En route to losing both Tank Dell to a catastrophic and complete knee dislocation (out for 2025) and Stefon Diggs to an ACL tear (now in New England), alleged phenom C.J. Stroud took a major step back.
Stroud busted his way to a QB18 finish, with exactly one top-8 weekly performance and one three-TD game. Stroud was a top-12 QB in a mere 3/17 weeks and finished as the weekly QB17 or worse 11 times. Behind a sieve-like offensive line with unimaginative play-calling, the only bright spots on the offense were Joe Mixon and Nico Collins.
Enter veteran Christian Kirk to help fill the void left by Dell and Diggs. A wily veteran slot receiver, Kirk has been reasonably productive but has always struggled to stay healthy: he’s only played a full season twice in his seven-year career. Accordingly, he has only one season with 80+ catches, 1,000+ yards, or 7+ TDs (all in 2022).
While the Texans are a candidate to add a receiver early in the 2025 draft, Kirk is easily the 2nd-best receiver in Houston as things stand. It’s clear that Robert Woods, Xavier Hutchinson, and John Metchie are not viable solutions. With a new play-caller and likely revamped offensive line, there is some post-hype hope for the 2025 Texans’ passing offense. Miscast as a WR1 early in his tenure as a Jaguar, Kirk has a short/medium area skillset that complements superstar Nico Collins:
Christian Kirk is a great fit for the Texans.
This will be one of my favorite moves of free agency compared to the cost to acquire. https://t.co/ergSIIu0EP pic.twitter.com/pwVQzmfgf1
— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) March 6, 2025
Already 28 years old, it would be very difficult for Kirk to be anything better than a low-floor, if steady WR3 in fantasy leagues – especially if the Texans draft a receiver on Day 1 or 2 of the draft. At the very least, his price tag is not exorbitant: he’s currently being drafted as the WR53 in the middle of the 8th round. Fireworks can’t be expected, but Kirk has sneakily averaged 1.7+ yards per route run each of the past four years. That is far superior receiving production to any Texans pass-catcher not named Nico Collins.
Cooper Kupp To The Seahawks
It’s been all downhill for Cooper Kupp since his all-time great 2021 season, but 2024 proved to be a new low when the season was all said and done. Once again, after starting hot, an injury knocked Kupp out for most of the first half of the 2024 season. After a very promising Weeks 8-12, it became abundantly clear that Puka Nacua was the lone alpha in Los Angeles. Kupp fell off a cliff from Week 13 onward:
During the fantasy playoffs (Weeks 15-17), Kupp amassed a grand total of 4 receptions for 53 yards on 9 targets, all but assuring those who started him an early exit.
But even worse, the Rams themselves began to distance their offense from Kupp. During their stretch run to the NFL playoffs, when it mattered most, Cooper Kupp became less and less involved (credit to the Stealing Signals app on Rotoviz):
| Metric | Weeks 8-12 | Weeks 13-17 |
|---|---|---|
| Targets | 50 | 23 |
| Route % | 86% | 71% |
| Yards/Route | 2.37 | 1.67 |
| Yards/Target | 8.02 | 7.04 |
| PPR Points | 101.1 | 34.2 |
With a disappearing act that would make Harry Houdini blush and career-per-game lows nearly across the board, age has appeared to catch up to Kupp. It’s easier to ignore age with perennial producers like Davante Adams, who got stronger as 2024 went on, but Kupp does not come close to fitting that mold. He’ll be turning 32 this offseason and has a mere two 1,000+ yard seasons in his career (compared to Adams’s five such seasons).
Throw in the fact that he has to compete for targets with another rising superstar (Jaxon Smith-Njigba) with a major coaching and quarterback downgrade, and we have minimal upside with major bust potential. While he could theoretically have an Adam Thielen-like resurgence, his WR47 cost in the early 8th round is still too high.
Stefon Diggs To The Patriots
One of the WR final dominoes to fall in the 2025 free agency class, Diggs found his way to arguably the most receiver-needy team in the NFL. Though his days as an alpha WR1 are almost certainly over, he was much better than meets the eye in 2024. The disastrous Texans passing offense overshadowed some great metrics displayed by Diggs in his age 30/31 season:
Stefon Diggs 2024 #ReceptionPerception profile is up on the site!
Highlights:
– 71.6% success rate vs man coverage
– 78.8% success rate vs zone
– 71.4% success rate vs press
– Excellent on out-breakersObviously these results are much lower than Diggs’ peak elite seasons but… pic.twitter.com/6rJjk5u94S
— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) March 20, 2025
This is also supported by ESPN’s Open Score metric, where he finished 7th among 83 qualifying receivers. If Diggs is healthy, there’s no question he can produce: he was pacing for a 100/1,054/6 season before tearing his ACL halfway through the season.
Of course, the ACL tear is the elephant in the room. Fantasy analysts are often over-optimistic about serious injuries and player performance the following year. The statistics tell a different story:
How do Wide Receivers fare in their 1st year back after ACL reconstruction?
In one word: AWFUL
❌❌❌
Out of 18 different WRs that tore their ACL and returned since 2020 only one of them was actually productive.
That was Chris Godwin, and he missed 2 of the first 3 games,… https://t.co/QNEOykwBzh pic.twitter.com/pIvXijhZ6Z
— Jesse Morse, M.D. (@DrJesseMorse) March 1, 2025
Especially for a player turning 32 this winter, it’s a tough trend to beat. But he gets to be exciting sophomore Drake Maye’s WR1 and has a reasonable WR55 cost at the 9th/10th round turn. Just don’t be surprised if this is the end of the road for the aging fantasy superstar.
