Some fantasy managers underestimate how much the offensive environment matters for wide receivers. It’s why we use market share when evaluating college prospects—a WR shouldn’t be penalized just because he played in a run-heavy system.
And now, one receiver who quietly posted elite efficiency in a terrible passing offense is poised to take a leap in a new situation.
A Great Start in Humble Beginnings
George Pickens was drafted by the Steelers in 2022 and made an early impact at just 21 years old. But Pittsburgh’s passing offense was one of the league’s worst across his first three seasons:
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2022: 12 passing TDs (NFL Average: 23.4)
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2023: 13 passing TDs (NFL Average: 23.6)
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2024: 16 passing TDs in games Pickens played, 21 total (NFL Average: 25.3)
Yet despite the lack of volume, Pickens consistently commanded a huge share of Pittsburgh’s passing production:
| Season | PIT Pass TDs | Pickens TDs | TD Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 12 | 4 | 33.3% |
| 2023 | 13 | 5 | 38.5% |
| 2024 | 16 (games active) | 3 | 18.8% |
| Season | PIT Pass Yards | Pickens Yards | Yardage Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 3,411 | 801 | 23.5% |
| 2023 | 3,163 | 1,140 | 36.0% |
| 2024 | 2,761 (games active) | 900 | 32.6% |
Through Week 13 of 2024, Pickens was the WR17 in PPR – despite the Steelers finishing 4th worst in pass volume. He cooled off later in the year and battled some malcontent issues, but he still finished with strong market share numbers. Now being drafted as WR31 in early Apex leagues, Pickens is a screaming value.
Note this doesn’t include Pickens’ 5/87/1 in the Wild Card game at Baltimore.
Historical Efficiency
Even without gaudy raw totals, Pickens’ early-career efficiency places him in elite company. On Pro Football Reference, I queried all WRs since 2010 with 9.0+ yards per target on 235+ targets in their first three seasons:
| Player | Y/Tgt | From | To | Age | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deebo Samuel | 10.6 | 2019 | 2021 | 23-25 | 246 | 167 | 2598 | 10 | 68.4 |
| A.J. Brown | 10.2 | 2019 | 2021 | 22-24 | 295 | 185 | 2995 | 24 | 69.7 |
| Justin Jefferson | 10.1 | 2020 | 2022 | 21-23 | 476 | 324 | 4825 | 25 | 96.5 |
| Tyreek Hill | 10 | 2016 | 2018 | 22-24 | 325 | 223 | 3255 | 25 | 69.3 |
| Chris Godwin | 10 | 2017 | 2019 | 21-23 | 271 | 179 | 2700 | 17 | 58.7 |
| Julio Jones | 9.7 | 2011 | 2013 | 22-24 | 282 | 174 | 2737 | 20 | 80.5 |
| George Pickens | 9.7 | 2022 | 2024 | 21-23 | 293 | 174 | 2841 | 12 | 59.2 |
| Kenny Golladay | 9.6 | 2017 | 2019 | 24-26 | 283 | 163 | 2730 | 19 | 65 |
| Victor Cruz | 9.6 | 2010 | 2012 | 24-26 | 274 | 168 | 2628 | 19 | 75.1 |
| Nico Collins | 9.5 | 2021 | 2023 | 22-24 | 235 | 150 | 2224 | 11 | 57 |
| D.J. Moore | 9.4 | 2018 | 2020 | 21-23 | 335 | 208 | 3156 | 10 | 68.6 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 9.4 | 2021 | 2023 | 23-25 | 361 | 251 | 3385 | 18 | 72 |
| Calvin Ridley | 9.3 | 2018 | 2020 | 24-26 | 328 | 217 | 3061 | 26 | 69.6 |
| Puka Nacua | 9.3 | 2023 | 2024 | 22-23 | 266 | 184 | 2476 | 9 | 88.4 |
| Tee Higgins | 9.3 | 2020 | 2022 | 21-23 | 327 | 215 | 3028 | 19 | 65.8 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 9.2 | 2017 | 2019 | 21-23 | 315 | 211 | 2895 | 17 | 68.9 |
| Cooper Kupp | 9.2 | 2017 | 2019 | 24-26 | 283 | 196 | 2596 | 21 | 66.6 |
| Dez Bryant | 9.1 | 2010 | 2012 | 22-24 | 314 | 200 | 2871 | 27 | 66.8 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 9.1 | 2012 | 2014 | 23-25 | 360 | 214 | 3289 | 19 | 71.5 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 9.1 | 2021 | 2023 | 21-23 | 407 | 268 | 3717 | 29 | 82.6 |
| Josh Gordon | 9.1 | 2012 | 2014 | 21-23 | 302 | 161 | 2754 | 14 | 78.7 |
| Brandin Cooks | 9.1 | 2014 | 2016 | 21-23 | 315 | 215 | 2861 | 20 | 68.1 |
| Michael Thomas | 9.1 | 2016 | 2018 | 23-25 | 417 | 321 | 3787 | 23 | 80.6 |
| DeVonta Smith | 9 | 2021 | 2023 | 23-25 | 352 | 240 | 3178 | 19 | 63.6 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 9 | 2014 | 2016 | 22-24 | 457 | 288 | 4122 | 35 | 95.9 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 9 | 2010 | 2012 | 23-25 | 252 | 148 | 2268 | 16 | 61.3 |
This is a list of the NFL’s best wide receivers of the last 15 years. Pickens is one of only nine receivers to hit this benchmark between ages 21–23—a rare feat shared with names like Tee Higgins, Ja’Marr Chase, and Jefferson.
| Player | Y/Tgt | Age | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD | Y/G | SpeedScore | Draft |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tee Higgins | 9.3 | 21-23 | 327 | 215 | 3028 | 19 | 65.8 | 101.3 | 33 |
| George Pickens | 9.7 | 21-23 | 293 | 174 | 2841 | 12 | 59.2 | 102.9 | 52 |
Pickens has been more efficient than Higgins per target on nearly identical usage. Now, he moves to a much more pass-heavy offense.
The New Offensive Environment
Pittsburgh ranked near the bottom in pass attempts annually. Dallas, by contrast, was top 3 in pass volume, throwing 138 more passes than the Steelers last year.
Even more telling:
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Steelers: Averaged 15.3 passing TDs over the last 3 years
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Dak Prescott: Averages 29.7 passing TDs per 17 games in his career
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Prescott led the NFL in passing TDs in 2023
Although Pickens will join a team with an established target hog, it appears beneficial for wide receivers to have another threat on their team to keep modern defenses honest. Note that Ja’Marr Chase averaged more points per game with Tee Higgins active last season.
The entire Dallas offense should see the value of each target rise. Targets will be harder to come by than last season’s talent-devoid offense – but the team’s offense will be much more effective.
Behind CeeDee Lamb, last season’s “weapons” of Jake Ferguson, Brandin Cooks, Jalen Tolbert, and KaVontae Turpin combined for a target share of 48.4%. That target share is compiled from games in which Lamb was active.
The only players to receive more than 55 targets were Jake Ferguson and Jalen Tolbert. They averaged 5.7 and 4.8 yards per target, respectively. The offensive even dragged Lamb down to 7.9 yards per target – 0.5 yards lower than his previous worst as a rookie – due to surrounding inefficiency.
The remaining Cowboys are not explosive target earners. Pickens averaged a 25.1% target share for the Steelers last season and will be fed the ball after the Cowboys traded for him.
Offseason Buzz
There’s no shortage of hype from Cowboys camp:
The Athletic’s Ted Nguyen wrote, “You would expect teams to continue doubling Lamb, which means Pickens could see a huge uptick in one-on-one coverage.”
Head coach Brian Schottenheimer has sung Pickens’ praises since he was traded to the Cowboys. Recently, he called “his ability to track a football uncanny… when he’s not doubled, he’s really open…”
Don’t worry, he’s already making plays in camp.
First play of Cowboys Training Camp is a Dak Prescott BOMB to George Pickens 👀👀 pic.twitter.com/Vt9WIajpmP
— FergSZN (@FergSZN) July 21, 2025
George Pickens 👀 pic.twitter.com/ZuNF4aAHjh
— Jon Machota (@jonmachota) July 28, 2025
George Pickens pic.twitter.com/XI4lSuYfFR
— Jon Machota (@jonmachota) July 24, 2025
Back-of-the-Napkin Projection
If we assume the Cowboys will again pass 637 times, we can sketch a conservative projection for Pickens. He had a 25.1% target share last year with the Steelers; let’s assume he has a 20% target share with the Cowboys. Using his career catch rate of 59.4%, yards per target of 9.7, and TD rate of 4.1%, we reach the following projection.
| TGT | Rec | Yds | TD | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 127.4 | 75.7 | 1235.8 | 5.22 | 230.6 |
This production would’ve been good for WR17 last year. This projection assumes full health and Pickens maintaining his career efficiency—but given he’s entering his prime and playing with the best quarterback of his career, he could easily outperform these numbers.
Final Thoughts
George Pickens has been far better than most realize. He posted elite efficiency in one of the worst passing environments in the NFL and now lands in one of the league’s best.
He’s only 24. He’s proven himself as an excellent receiver among historic company. He just entered a high-volume offense where he’ll be featured. And he’s still being drafted as WR31.
Don’t let a late-season dip fool you—Pickens is a must-draft in 2025.
