Heading into the 2025 season, the Packers have two wide receivers being drafted nearly back-to-back: third-year breakout candidate Jayden Reed and rookie first-rounder Matthew Golden. But one is clearly the better value in fantasy football—and it’s not the rookie.
Matthew Golden’s Prospect Profile
As I noted in my rookie WR preview, this year’s receiver class isn’t particularly strong. Golden may have been drafted in the first round, but his college production profile raises red flags.
Golden didn’t lead his college team in receiving until his junior year. Even then, he averaged just 61.7 receiving yards per game in his best collegiate season – an atrocious mark for a first-round pick. Since 2014, the next closest first-round WRs were Henry Ruggs (62 receiving yards per game) and Phillip Dorsett (67).
He posted a career yards per route run under 2.0 — a damning benchmark based on Scott Barrett’s research.
Outside of draft capital, there’s little in Golden’s profile to suggest he’s ready to lead an NFL receiving room as a rookie. He appears to be Christian Watson’s (likely to miss all of 2025 with a knee injury) replacement: a role that garnered a whopping 29/620/2 line in 15 games last year.
Jayden Reed’s Outlook
While Golden has the draft pedigree, Reed was the better prospect and has already proven himself at the NFL level.
He broke out as a true freshman, maintained 20%+ target shares in all four college seasons, and hovered around a 30% dominator rating. Golden, in contrast, never topped a 16% target share or a 24% dominator rating.
At the NFL level, Reed has been incredible on a per-opportunity basis. He’s been Jordan Love’s most efficient wide receiver.
In his first two seasons, on just 169 targets, Reed has compiled 119 receptions for 1,650 receiving yards and 14 touchdowns (9.8 yards per target). That’s not to mention his prowess as a rusher, adding an additional 282 rushing yards and three touchdowns on the ground on 9.1 yards per carry.
Using Stathead, I found a list of WRs who, over their first two seasons, had at least 1,500 receiving yards and 15 touchdowns on 9 yards per target. Only 16 players qualify.
| Player | PPR/G | Yds | TD | YPT | From | To | Age | G | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 22.75 | 2755 | 25 | 9.6 | 2014 | 2015 | 22-23 | 27 | 288 | 187 | 2755 | 25 | 102 |
| Randy Moss | 18.98 | 2726 | 29 | 10.4 | 1998 | 1999 | 21-22 | 32 | 261 | 149 | 2726 | 28 | 85.2 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 18.86 | 2501 | 22 | 9.5 | 2021 | 2022 | 21-22 | 29 | 262 | 168 | 2501 | 22 | 86.2 |
| Justin Jefferson | 18.32 | 3016 | 17 | 10.3 | 2020 | 2021 | 21-22 | 33 | 292 | 196 | 3016 | 17 | 91.4 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 16.49 | 2343 | 15 | 9.6 | 2017 | 2018 | 21-22 | 30 | 245 | 169 | 2343 | 14 | 78.1 |
| Julio Jones | 15.98 | 2157 | 18 | 9.7 | 2011 | 2012 | 22-23 | 29 | 223 | 133 | 2157 | 18 | 74.4 |
| A.J. Brown | 15.49 | 2126 | 21 | 11.2 | 2019 | 2020 | 22-23 | 30 | 190 | 122 | 2126 | 19 | 70.9 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 15.3 | 2371 | 15 | 9.2 | 2021 | 2022 | 23-24 | 33 | 257 | 179 | 2371 | 14 | 71.8 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 15.3 | 1842 | 17 | 9.1 | 2009 | 2010 | 21-22 | 27 | 202 | 126 | 1842 | 17 | 68.2 |
| Tyreek Hill | 14.91 | 1776 | 20 | 9.4 | 2016 | 2017 | 22-23 | 31 | 188 | 136 | 1776 | 13 | 57.3 |
| Sammy Watkins | 14.37 | 2029 | 15 | 9.1 | 2014 | 2015 | 21-22 | 29 | 224 | 125 | 2029 | 15 | 70 |
| D.K. Metcalf | 14.33 | 2203 | 17 | 9.6 | 2019 | 2020 | 22-23 | 32 | 229 | 141 | 2203 | 17 | 68.8 |
| Calvin Ridley | 13.92 | 1687 | 17 | 9.1 | 2018 | 2019 | 24-25 | 29 | 185 | 127 | 1687 | 17 | 58.2 |
| Mike Wallace | 12.59 | 2013 | 16 | 11.8 | 2009 | 2010 | 23-24 | 32 | 170 | 99 | 2013 | 16 | 62.9 |
| Jayden Reed | 12.55 | 1650 | 17 | 9.8 | 2023 | 2024 | 23-24 | 33 | 169 | 119 | 1650 | 14 | 50 |
| Lee Evans | 11.28 | 1586 | 16 | 9.6 | 2004 | 2005 | 23-24 | 32 | 166 | 96 | 1586 | 16 | 49.6 |
Look, I’ll be the first to admit that some of these WRs may be out of Reed’s league – but this illustrates how unique Reed’s production has been. And he accomplished this with the second-fewest targets, ahead of only Lee Evans.
In fact, if you take the four least targeted receivers on this list, they all had huge third years.
| Player | Team | Year | Age | Rec | TGT | Yds | TD | YPT | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Ridley | ATL | 2020 | 26 | 90 | 143 | 1374 | 9 | 9.6 | 283.5 |
| Lee Evans | BUF | 2006 | 25 | 82 | 137 | 1292 | 8 | 9.4 | 259.2 |
| Mike Wallace | PIT | 2011 | 25 | 72 | 113 | 1193 | 8 | 10.6 | 245 |
| DK Metcalf | SEA | 2021 | 24 | 70 | 118 | 909 | 12 | 7.7 | 233.5 |
Perhaps it’s fair to argue he’s not the same type of receiver as these guys. So let’s let the RotoViz Screener dig up some objective comparable players.
| PLAYER | Y1 | Y2 | Pick | Rec | TGT | reYDs | reTD | YPT | reFPOEPA | ruYDs | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Reed | 2023 | 2024 | 50 | 3.6 | 5.3 | 48.1 | 0.5 | 9.1 | 0.45 | 9 | 12.6 |
| Lee Evans | 2004 | 2005 | 13 | 3 | 5.2 | 49.6 | 0.5 | 9.5 | 0.39 | 4.3 | 11.4 |
| Deebo Samuel | 2019 | 2020 | 36 | 4.1 | 5.7 | 57.8 | 0.2 | 10.2 | 0.24 | 8.4 | 12.7 |
| Percy Harvin | 2009 | 2010 | 22 | 4.5 | 6.9 | 57.2 | 0.4 | 8.3 | 0.21 | 8.3 | 13.6 |
| Tyreek Hill | 2016 | 2017 | 165 | 4.4 | 6.1 | 57.5 | 0.4 | 9.5 | 0.43 | 10.5 | 14.2 |
| Xavier Worthy | 2024 | 2024 | 28 | 3.7 | 6.1 | 39.9 | 0.4 | 6.6 | -0.04 | 6.5 | 11.7 |
| Christian Watson | 2022 | 2023 | 34 | 2.9 | 5.1 | 42.2 | 0.5 | 8.3 | 0.26 | 3.6 | 11.3 |
| Randall Cobb | 2011 | 2012 | 64 | 3.6 | 4.7 | 45.8 | 0.3 | 9.8 | 0.52 | 4.7 | 10.5 |
| DeSean Jackson | 2008 | 2009 | 49 | 4 | 7.6 | 66.7 | 0.4 | 8.8 | 0.03 | 7.5 | 13.9 |
| Tank Dell | 2023 | 2024 | 69 | 4.1 | 6.5 | 57.3 | 0.4 | 8.8 | 0.27 | 3.9 | 12.7 |
| Laveranues Coles | 2000 | 2001 | 78 | 3.1 | 5.6 | 47.6 | 0.3 | 8.5 | 0.11 | 4.7 | 10.3 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 2020 | 2021 | 25 | 4.1 | 6.5 | 54.3 | 0.4 | 8.4 | 0.09 | 3.5 | 12.5 |
| Mike Thomas | 2009 | 2010 | 107 | 3.8 | 5.4 | 42.3 | 0.2 | 7.8 | 0.05 | 6.7 | 9.7 |
| Marvin Jones Jr. | 2012 | 2013 | 166 | 2.9 | 4.7 | 38 | 0.5 | 8.2 | 0.32 | 4.7 | 9.9 |
| Mike Wallace | 2009 | 2010 | 84 | 3.1 | 5.3 | 62.9 | 0.5 | 11.8 | 0.71 | 2.7 | 12.7 |
| Marquise Brown | 2019 | 2020 | 25 | 3.5 | 5.7 | 45.1 | 0.5 | 8 | 0.27 | 0 | 11 |
| Torrey Smith | 2011 | 2012 | 58 | 3.2 | 6.6 | 54.7 | 0.5 | 8.2 | 0.11 | 1.5 | 11.7 |
| Kenny Britt | 2009 | 2010 | 30 | 3.2 | 5.7 | 56.8 | 0.5 | 10 | 0.43 | 0 | 11.8 |
| Donte' Stallworth | 2002 | 2003 | 13 | 2.8 | 5.2 | 45 | 0.5 | 8.7 | 0.37 | 0.2 | 10.3 |
| Calvin Ridley | 2018 | 2019 | 26 | 4.4 | 6.4 | 58.2 | 0.6 | 9.1 | 0.49 | 2.1 | 14 |
His production is too unique to ignore. With extremely efficient receiving production and consistent rushing involvement, Reed’s most similar comps are players like Percy Harvin and Deebo Samuel.
However, the Screener also included Lee Evans, Tyreek Hill, DeSean Jackson, Mike Wallace, and Calvin Ridley. It’s a clear green flag.
There appears to be some recency bias, as Reed had a tough finish to the season last year. Through 13 weeks, Reed was the WR11. He finished the season as the WR28. He’s somehow now being drafted as the WR43, behind his rookie teammate.
The only thing that Reed has lacked is targets. After finishing with 581 pass attempts in 2023, the Packers threw the third-fewest times (479) in 2024. The league average last year was ~ 557, so their pass attempts are likely to regress towards the mean, since Jordan Love is finally healthy after playing through an MCL sprain and/or groin injury for the entirety of last season. He’s likely to return closer to his 2023 form where he was the QB2 from Week 11 onward.
The Verdict
Matthew Golden might be a fun dart throw, but his profile screams overdrafted speedster.
Jayden Reed, on the other hand, has already proven he can produce efficiently with limited volume. He’s drawn comps to Percy Harvin, Deebo Samuel, and many extremely productive wide receivers — and the Packers have reportedly reassured Reed’s agent that he remains their WR1.
At his current WR43 ADP, he’s one of the few mid-round wide receivers with a legitimate path to WR1-level upside.
