Rookie Standouts

Cam Skattebo

After a record-setting 2024 season at Arizona State, Skattebo is making waves at Giants camp. He’s breaking off chunk plays and, according to beat writers, earning more reps:

Skattebo’s production profile rivaled 6th overall pick Ashton Jeanty, and Mike Braude has already discussed why he needs to be taken very seriously as a rookie. A few highlights:

  • One of two FBS RBs to have 1,600+ rush yards and 600+ receiving yards in a season. The other? Christian McCaffrey
  • 6th among all players regardless of position in receiving YAC
  • 0.42 missed tackles forced per touch (97th percentile)
  • Incumbent Tyrone Tracy: 38th/41 in attempts/broken tackle and yards after contact/attempt, below-average pass-block grade, and receiving yards over expectation

Throw in the fact that Russell Wilson had the 4th-highest checkdown rate in the NFL last year, and we could easily be looking at a weekly RB2 from the get-go. Besides running for chunk gains, he’s showing off his special receiving abilities as well:

Unfortunately, Skattebo has been held out of recent practices due to a hamstring injury. However, the MRI showed “optimistic” results. He’ll still be sidelined for a little while, but it appears he’ll be back with more than enough time to get ready for Week 1.

Brashard Smith

The Chiefs may have found their new Jerick McKinnon in Brashard Smith.

This is significant. In 2022, Jerick McKinnon scored 9 touchdowns on 71 targets on his way to an RB20 finish despite only carrying the ball 72 times. Even more notably, all but one of those touchdowns were in the red-zone, and all but two from inside the 10-yard line.

Brashard Smith already looks like the best receiving option out of their backfield. A converted wide receiver, he exploded for 1,657 yards from scrimmage and 18 scores last year at SMU, including 39 receptions.

Despite being converted from wide receiver only a season ago, he showed bell-cow ability with 235 carries as well. If he locks down that McKinnon role, he has legitimate RB2 upside—making him a must-draft late-round flier.

Elijah Arroyo

Despite having almost no receiving options behind Jaxon Smith-Njigba and the declining 32-year-old Cooper Kupp, the Seahawks released Noah Fant. That’s a big vote of confidence in second-rounder Elijah Arroyo—another athletic (87th percentile speed score) and catch-first tight end:

With rookie tight ends performing better than ever, Arroyo is someone to keep an eye on in an ambiguous target distribution. Seattle’s defense is unlikely to be better than league-average, and Arroyo posted an insane 20% touchdown rate as a junior at Miami.

Harold Fannin

Similar to Seattle and Arroyo, the Browns desperately need another receiving option behind Jerry Jeudy and David Njoku:

An early 3rd-round pick, Fannin’s collegiate production was off the charts. As a tight end, he led all of college football in both receptions (117) and receiving yards (1,555).

Worried about him posting these numbers against inferior competition playing for Bowling Green? Don’t be: he actually performed better against Power 5 schools.

OpponentRec (Per Game)Yds (Per Game)Y/R (Per Game)TDs (Per Game
Penn St. & Texas A&M9.514114.81
Non-Power 5 Schools8.9128.514.40.7

Superstars Gonna Superstar

Malik Nabers

Despite playing with QBs who ranked 27th (Daniel Jones), 48th (Tommy DeVito), and 50th (Drew Lock) in PFF passing grades, Nabers finished as the overall WR6. The volume is not in question: he led the NFL with 11.3 targets per game, a full target ahead of 2nd place (Ja’Marr Chase). That looks like it will continue this year:

Nabers being the extreme focal point on offense is also evidenced by his having a say in offseason personnel decisions. The only thing holding him back from an overall WR1 season is his chronic toe injury, which did not limit him at all last year.

Brock Bowers

You probably don’t need convincing, but Bowers looks set for back-to-back TE1 seasons:

The only meaningful target competition added was RB Ashton Jeanty, and the much-improved QB play (Geno Smith) is going to make this offense light-years more effective than the recent ineptitude of Aidan O’Connell/Gardner Minshew/Desmond Ridder.

In addition to being more efficient, there are likely to run more plays under new OC Chip Kelly:

Somehow currently going in the late-2nd round of early Apex drafts, he’s an absolute steal anytime in the 2nd. No one would argue spending a mid-1st on him either.

Post-Hype Players To Watch

Kyle Pitts

Trust me, we’re also sick of trying to hype up Kyle Pitts. The annual “Lucy pulling the football away from Charlie Brown“, drafters have finally gotten sick of spending a premium pick on him. That’s a good thing: you can still take a shot on the small chance he lives up to the hype with almost no cost for the first time in his career.

YearADP
202147 (TE4)
202232.8 (TE3)
202362.3 (TE6)
202464.2 (TE7)
2025148 (TE16)

This is an ascending offense that will be operating at one of the fastest paces in the league. Even with Kirk Cousins slowing down, the Falcons finished 4th in neutral pace. They also showed a hint of elite scoring ability, finishing 6th in points per game (32.0) in Penix’s starts despite going run-heavy.

Penix, completely unprompted, hinted that Pitts’ already notable involvement so far in training camp may extend into the regular season:


He’s also been working with the wide receivers instead of the tight ends. With no WR3 to speak of and Darnell Mooney questionable for Week 1, the door is open for Pitts to have a meaningful role on what is probably the best offense he’s ever been on.

He wouldn’t be the first tight-end drafted in the top-10 who was a late bloomer in the NFL. Eric Ebron broke out in his 5th season to the tune of 66/750/13 line en route to a TE4 finish. Pitts also favorably compares to another delayed breakout:

Keon Coleman

There’s no doubt that the 33rd overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft had a rough rookie year. But after de facto WR1 Khalil Shakir (who is now week-to-week with a high ankle sprain), his competition is average journeymen Elijah Moore and Josh Palmer as well as 2nd-year disappointment Dalton Kincaid. He looks to have taken a leap as a sophomore in the eyes of their OC:


He’s been creating separation and catching deep balls, earning praise from Josh Allen among others.

On a team that is projected to score the most points this season, taking the “mystery box” in Coleman is enticing to those not afraid of taking a risk.