The biggest winners and losers of 2026 free agency include a multitude of running backs—and the ripple effects could decide your fantasy season. Changes in role, opportunity, and team context have elevated some players while introducing new risks for others. Make sure to check out the free agency fallout for wide receivers and tight ends as well.

TL;DR:

  • Walker’s role + receiving gives boosts previous ceiling
  • Etienne’s 2025 production looks fragile and TD-driven
  • Tuten’s underlying metrics point to a breakout
  • Montgomery benefits from role + scheme fit in Houston
  • Gibbs inherits goal-line work → overall RB1 ceiling

Chiefs Finally Become Two-Dimensional

“Kenneth Walker III” and “Super Bowl MVP” aren’t phrases many expected to go together.

But after carrying Seattle through the playoffs (65 carries, 313 yards, 4 TDs across three games, plus 9/104 receiving), Walker cashed in—landing the largest free agent RB contract in league history with Kansas City.

And in this context, it makes sense.

A Perfect Fit for the Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes’s late-season ACL tear clouds both his Week 1 availability and his rushing ability in 2026.

Meanwhile:

  • Rashee Rice is dealing with even more legal issues
  • Xavier Worthy has been inconsistent, to put it kindly
  • Travis Kelce turns 37 (!) in October

Kansas City has desperately needed a difference-maker in the backfield—and their 2025 runners simply weren’t cutting it:

Unsurprisingly, he’s also on the polar end of the spectrum when it comes to making defenders miss:

Walker’s Passing Game Role Matters

Walker’s impact isn’t limited to rushing. This becomes even more relevant with their question marks at receiver and tight end.

He quietly excelled in this area (per FantasyPointsData):

  • 6th in yards per route run (min. 150 targets)
  • Finished behind only: Bijan, J. Warren, CMC, Gibbs, and Bucky

And don’t forget—he caught 46 passes in just 11 games in 2024, flashing an ability to catch the ball with volume.

The Justin Fields Factor

Mahomes is attempting to return for Week 1—but it’s far from a guarantee. The Chiefs’ trade for Justin Fields casts major doubt on that hope.

Fields is a proven disaster as a passer, but his deficiencies as a passer mean more rushing volume. We saw this exact effect in New York last season:

The 2025 New York Jets' splits with and without Justin Fields.

The Price Problem

The issue isn’t Walker’s talent or situation—it’s the cost. His price in early drafts has ballooned to the middle of the 2nd round. That is a tough pill to swallow for a player who has never finished as the RB16 or better despite playing 15+ games in 3 of 4 seasons.

If you’re drafting him there, you’re betting on a full-season version of “Playoff Ken Walker” and/or a massive receiving workload.

That’s a thin margin for error.

What Happens in Seattle?

Walker leaves behind a significant touch vacuum—but the situation is murky.

Zach Charbonnet’s ACL tear during the playoffs complicates everything. It’s not a great sign when the latest update suggests he may return “at some point during the 2026 season.”

The current depth chart is uninspiring and unproven:

  • Emmanuel Wilson (5.9 career carries/game)
  • George Holani (1.6 career carries/game)

Seattle is almost guaranteed to add a meaningful RB in the draft, making this one of the most fluid backfields in the league.

Etienne Cashes In On His Bounce-Back

It’s been difficult to count out Travis Etienne.

  • 2021: Missed entire rookie year (Lisfranc injury in training camp)
  • 2022: RB17 finish
  • 2023: RB3 breakout
  • 2024: RB35 (despite playing 15 games)

After his disastrous 2024, many assumed his best days were behind him.

Then came Liam Coen in 2025.

Etienne rebounded to an RB10 finish, fueled largely by 6 receiving touchdowns—second only to Christian McCaffrey.

The resurgence led to him earning a 4-year, $47 million contract from Kellen Moore and the Saints as their new lead back.

He should have the backfield mostly to himself (Alvin Kamara turns 31 in July), and Moore is a legitimate top-tier offensive coach: just ask 2024 Saquon Barkley, owners.

The Underlying Concerns

But the underlying profile is shaky. Unlike Walker, Etienne lacks elite physical traits among other red flags:

  • Losing explosiveness → 3.9 YPC over the last three seasons
  • Not a volume rusher → never topped 1,125 yards (despite playing in 66 of 68 career games)
  • Not a volume receiver → only one 40+ catch season

His 2025 production was heavily driven by receiving scores, and scoring a touchdown on 16.7% of receptions is completely unsustainable.

There are also other hidden issues about his 2025 performance:

His lack of breakaway speed and waning 2nd-half performance are especially concerning, since he turned 27 in January.

Considering his middling rushing profile, he’ll need a near monopoly on backfield receptions unless Tyler Shough’s tendencies change drastically.

At a mid-3rd round ADP, he’s a tough bet.

Bhayshul Tuten: The Real Winner?

The more exciting fantasy story may lie back in Jacksonville with Bhayshul Tuten.

His college and combine metrics are mind-boggling (per PlayerProfiler):

Bhayshul Tuten's college and combine metrics

Last offseason, Mike Braude found another promising statistic:

“Scott Barrett highlighted that Tuten led all Power Conference RBs in two key advanced metrics: career yards after contact per attempt (4.08) and missed tackles forced per touch (0.35).”

While critics point to his 3.7 YPC, context matters:

In an offense that made the non-explosive Etienne a fantasy asset, Tuten’s ceiling is massive if Jacksonville doesn’t add more competition.

Let’s not freak out too much about the Chris Rodriguez signing:

The End Of An Era In Detroit

Forming far-and-away the most fearsome backfield since 2023, David Montgomery’s bruising style was the perfect complement to Jahmyr Gibbs’ unparalleled explosiveness.

But as it became clear that Jahmyr Gibbs’ transcendent talent demanded more volume, Montgomery shifted from 1B to a secondary role—and ultimately wanted out. The Lions obliged.

Montgomery Lands in Houston

The price (OL Juice Scruggs + 4th and 7th round picks) is noteworthy and signals significant usage ahead.

Montgomery becomes the immediate alpha RB on a team that was forced to run Woody Marks repeatedly into the line of scrimmage last season.

With 3.6 YPC and a staggering -17.1 EPA (expected points added), it was clear that he’s a passing-down option only.

Montgomery is aging, but remains far more effective than Marks. He was a top-18 RB in 2023 and 2024 and still outscored Marks in 2025 despite taking a backseat to Gibbs.

He’s also an excellent schematic fit:

28-year-old Joe Mixon finished as the RB8 in PPR points per game in 2024 in this offense, and Montgomery may be playing with an even better offensive line.

Houston has completely revamped their offensive line in an attempt to improve their perennial weakness:

  • Traded away OT Tytus Howard
  • Traded away OG Juice Scruggs
  • Signed OT Evan Brown
  • Signed OT Braden Smith
  • Signed OG Ed Ingram
  • Signed OG Wyatt Teller

Marks is rendered to the brink of fantasy relevance, and Montgomery’s price is understandable but aggressive at the 5th/6th turn. He’ll have to become an exception to the age curve to make the cost worth it.

Youth-driven fantasy owners will look to Quinshon Judkins, Cam Skattebo, and the aforementioned Tuten at similar prices.

Jahmyr Gibbs: Nothing Left in His Way

With Montgomery gone, Jahmyr Gibbs finally has the backfield to himself.

And that should terrify the 11 other fantasy owners in your league who don’t roster him: Gibbs has already finished as the RB1 and RB3 the past two seasons…while sharing touches.

Montgomery had handled over half of Detroit’s carries inside the 5-yard line since 2024.

If Gibbs absorbs even a portion of that work, he’s staring at a potentially legendary fantasy season:

Jahmyr Gibbs' splits with and without David Montgomery

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