The NFL’s offseason transactions don’t just reshape rosters — they reshape the fantasy football value landscape. A few key moves this spring have dramatically changed the outlook for several major pass catchers.

TL;DR

  • Tyler Warren: Should become the focal point of the Colts’ passing offense after Michael Pittman Jr.’s departure.

  • Luther Burden / Colston Loveland: Chicago’s reshaped offense opens the door for both young playmakers to take major steps forward.

  • Mike Evans: Lands in a Kyle Shanahan offense with minimal target competition, giving him a chance to outperform his age-33 expectations.

Colts Make a Big Statement About Their Offense

To say the Colts’ offense got off to a scorching start in 2025 would be an understatement. Behind the resurgence of “Danny Dimes,” Indianapolis led the league in nearly every offensive category through Week 8. They even posted the highest points per minute of possession in NFL history (1.09).

Multiple players were enjoying breakout seasons before Daniel Jones suffered a devastating Achilles tear in Week 14, bringing the surge to a halt.

The 2026 free agency period made it clear that Indianapolis believes in what it built. Despite the injury—and even some pre-injury decline—the Colts committed to Jones with a two-year, $50 million contract. The expectation is that he will be ready for the start of the season.

Meanwhile, Alec Pierce broke out in a big way. He posted career highs in:

  • Targets: 84

  • Receptions: 47

  • Yards: 1,003

He also ranked among the league’s best in advanced metrics:

  • 3rd in air yards

  • 2nd in yards per route run

Arguably the league’s top deep threat in 2025, Pierce became one of the hottest names in free agency. The Colts ultimately brought him back on a four-year, $114 million deal although he was reported offered more money elsewhere.

The Pittman Trade Changes Everything For Tyler Warren

The biggest shift in Indianapolis’ offense was the decision to trade longtime target hog Michael Pittman Jr. to the Steelers.

Pierce will likely continue operating as the primary deep threat. Meanwhile, Josh Downs is coming off career lows in:

  • Targets

  • Receptions

  • Receiving yards

  • Yards per target

All four marks were marked declines from his previously promising career trajectory, though Pittman’s absence leaves the door open for a possible bounce-back.

The biggest beneficiary may be tight end Tyler Warren, whose sensational rookie season resulted in an overall TE4 finish.

The Colts’ offseason moves significantly improve Warren’s 2026 outlook. The re-signing of Daniel Jones is particularly important. Here are Warren’s splits with Jones versus without him (including the shortened Week 14 game):

Tyler Warren's splits with and without Daniel Jones

Warren’s week-to-week consistency also collapsed after Jones’ injury in Week 14.

Tyler Warren's week-to-week stats

Jones’ return is clearly bullish for Warren—but so is Pittman’s departure.

Pittman and Warren operated in many of the same areas of the field, both thriving as short-area target earners competing for the same volume:

Michael Pittman's target heatmap

Tyler Warren's target heatmap

A staggering 99 of Pittman’s 115 targets overlapped with Warren’s short-yardage role.

The Colts’ decision to essentially pay Pierce instead of Pittman says plenty about how they view their young tight end. Warren now projects as a central engine of the passing game.

Pierce will still play a major role, but his usage last season shows why he’s unlikely to cap Warren’s ceiling. Despite his deep-route dominance, Pierce finished just 43rd in targets and 23rd in PPR points per game

His ability to stretch defenses should actually create more space for Warren underneath.

There is still risk. Jones’ Achilles tear raises questions about the offense overall. But it could also increase passing volume, as quarterbacks returning from lower-body injuries often scramble less.

Taken together, the Colts’ free-agency and trade decisions strongly point toward a second breakout season for Tyler Warren.

(Shoutout to RotoViz for the charts referenced above.)

Make Way for Burden and Loveland

The Bills’ decision to trade the 60th overall pick plus the 165th pick for D.J. Moore is a hefty price for an aging veteran receiver.

But it signals something important: Buffalo is pushing all-in for a deeper playoff run, starting with improving Josh Allen’s supporting cast.

Moore immediately becomes the best receiver Buffalo has had since Stefon Diggs departed.

For fantasy managers, the hope is simple: elite quarterback play plus strong target volume will buoy Moore’s counting stats.

Still, Moore’s 2025 season suggested a possible decline.

Time PeriodTargetsCatchesYardsAir YardsPPR Points/Game
2025 (Career Rank)85 (2nd Worst)50 (Worst)682 (Worst)988 (2nd Worst)10.0
2018-2024 Low82 (Rookie)55788748 (Rookie)9.8 (Rookie)

Despite playing every game, nearly all of Moore’s counting stats were career lows—or his worst since his 2018 rookie season.

He’ll turn 29 before the season begins, and he wasn’t even Caleb Williams’ most efficient receiver last year:

Caleb Williams' adjusted yards per attempt by receiver

Reasons for Optimism

There are still reasons to believe Moore can return to meaningful fantasy production.

The trade price strongly indicates Moore will be the centerpiece of Buffalo’s passing offense, a role that once allowed Stefon Diggs to thrive.

Moore will also reunite with Joe Brady, his former Panthers coordinator and Buffalo’s new head coach.

Kevin Szafraniec of RotoViz has also argued Moore’s dip may have been tied to Ben Johnson’s offensive experimentation in Chicago, as Johnson leaned toward featuring new offensive toys.

Speaking of new toys…

The Rise of Luther Burden

Luther Burden is already one of the most hyped fantasy players heading into 2026.

And the underlying metrics justify the excitement.

Burden’s early best-ball ADP has climbed into the middle of the 4th round.

One stat illustrates why:

Being mentioned alongside Puka Nacua and JSN in any metric is a major signal.

With Moore gone, targets and snaps are suddenly available—the one area where Burden lagged as a rookie (123rd in snap share).

Could Loveland Be Even Better Than Burden?

It’s just as difficult not to be excited about Colston Loveland.

His 100th-percentile college dominator rating and status as Ben Johnson’s first draft selection (10th overall) signaled massive upside.

Like many rookie pass catchers, Loveland started slowly—but finished the season on a tear.

Loveland’s importance was even clearer during the playoffs. In Chicago’s two postseason games, he led the team in:

  • Targets

  • Receptions

  • Receiving yards

  • First downs

The one wildcard here is Rome Odunze returning to health.

But Burden and Loveland’s age-adjusted production (both played most or all of 2025 at age 21) outshines Odunze’s (less promising production as a 22-year-old rookie).

His 2025 efficiency also pales in comparison to the aforementioned sophomore phenoms (see above AY/A chart).

This puts the latter at risk of the “D.J. Moore treatment”—a previous regime’s acquisition taking a backseat to Ben Johnson’s hand-picked pass catchers.

Either way, this trade appears to be a win for nearly all the fantasy assets mentioned above.

Mike Evans to the Rescue in San Francisco

Despite turning 33 this season, Mike Evans proved he still has plenty left in the tank.

After returning from injury in Week 15, he immediately reclaimed the alpha role, averaging:

  • 9.3 targets per game

  • 64.7 receiving yards per game

  • 2 touchdowns over that stretch

Rather than returning to Tampa Bay, Evans signed with San Francisco, where he projects as the team’s new WR1.

A Perfect Shanahan Fit

Kyle Shanahan has a long history of producing elite fantasy seasons from outside “X” receivers.

Some notable examples from his coaching career:

  • Andre Johnson (2008): WR1 — 115 catches  / 1,575 yards / 8 TDs

  • Andre Johnson (2009): WR1 — 101 / 1,569 / 9

  • Santana Moss (2010): WR12 — 93 / 1,115 / 6

  • Pierre Garçon (2013): WR11 — 113 / 1,346 / 5

  • Julio Jones (2015): WR2 — 136 / 1,871 / 8

  • Julio Jones (2016): WR6 — 83 / 1,409 / 6

  • Deebo Samuel (2021): WR3 — 77 / 1,406 / 6,  59 / 365 / 8 rushing

  • Brandon Aiyuk (2022): WR15 — 78 / 1,015 / 8

  • Brandon Aiyuk (2023): WR13 — 75 / 1,342 / 7

  • Deebo Samuel (2021): WR3 — 60 / 892 / 7,  37 / 225 / 5 rushing

  • Jauan Jennings (2024): WR24 — 77 / 975 / 6

Shanahan consistently produces top-12 seasons, especially from high-draft-capital receivers: all besides Garçon and Jennings were top-36 NFL draft picks.

He’s also supported elite tight end production:

  • Owen Daniels (2008): TE6

  • Chris Cooley (2010): TE5

  • George Kittle (five TE3 finishes from 2018-2024)

The takeaway is simple:

Shanahan knows how to feed his best pass catchers.

And Evans may lead this team in targets.

Minimal Target Competition?

San Francisco’s current receiver room is thin:

  • Kendrick Bourne signed with Arizona

  • Jauan Jennings remains a free agent

  • George Kittle is recovering from an Achilles tear and will turn 33 in October

That leaves Evans and Ricky Pearsall (who has already missed 14 of 34 possible career games) as the only established volume options—unless San Francisco invests heavily in the draft.

Evans Still Dominates Deep

Even more encouraging is Evans’ continued dominance on deep routes.

That’s a perfect fit for Shanahan’s offense and Brock Purdy, who has excelled throwing when deep during his tenure as a full-time starter.

SeasonExplosive Play RatingDeep Ball Completion %Deep Ball Catchable %RZ Completion %RZ Catchable %
20231st1st1st2nd12th
20242nd8th19th10th15th
202513th1st1st13th11th

Purdy has also been excellent in the red zone, another area where Evans has historically churned out fantasy production.

The Age Cliff Question

Is this the year Evans finally hits the dreaded age cliff?

It’s likely: only 5.7% of 15+ PPR points-per-game seasons have occurred at age 33 or older.

Evans’ chronic hamstring issues only add to the risk (insert electrical substation joke here).

That makes his 4th/5th-round best-ball ADP a huge leap of faith.

But given:

  • his continued ability to earn targets

  • his elite deep-route performance

  • the lack of target competition

  • and a near-perfect schematic fit with Shanahan

Mike Evans may once again prove to be the exception.

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