Avoiding the fantasy landmines is just as important as making the correct, league-winning selections. Indeed, the two go hand-in-hand. Here are two players to fade at their current ADP in one-year Apex Leagues.
Myself and Asher Molk have each shared one player.
Courtland Sutton by Mike Braude
Courtland Sutton is safe – he’s a consistent player who is likely to be heavily involved. He’s unfortunately the type of player that my father likes to draft.
Sutton remarkably finished as the WR14 last season – that drops to the WR22 with per game scoring. But he’s being drafted as the WR35, so why are drafters so low on him?
One concern is the addition of Jaylen Waddle, who bested Sutton in both targets per route run (0.24 to 0.20) and yards per route run (2.18 to 1.61) last season. Paying a 1st and 3rd round pick price for Waddle, says a lot about the plans they have for him – and that will assuredly come at Sutton’s expense to a significant degree.
And Waddle isn’t the only one crowding the target share. Even in an underwhelming Broncos receiver room before Waddle’s addition, Sutton finished behind Troy Franklin’s 0.21 targets per route run. Even the corpse of Evan Engram reached 0.21 TPRR on his 368 routes.
But if the biggest thorn in Sutton’s side isn’t Waddle, it could be Pat Bryant — notably, Sutton’s best games came with Bryant sidelined last season.
Bryant’s role began to grow in Week 8. He missed Weeks 15 and 17 with injury, but the other eight regular season games are telling.
| Player | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD | Ctch% | YPT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton | 54 | 30 | 395 | 3 | 56% | 7.31 |
| Pat Bryant | 39 | 26 | 332 | 1 | 67% | 8.51 |
Bryant was far closer to Sutton than the pecking order would suggest. Sutton saw almost two more targets per game, yet that translated to just 7.9 more receiving yards per game.
Running that stretch through the RotoViz Screener’s Similarity Search surfaces comparable rookie profiles. There are misses, but second-year breakouts like Michael Pittman Jr., Darrell Jackson, and Chris Godwin show up often enough to make Bryant’s profile worth watching.
According to head coach Sean Payton, second-year wide receiver Pat Bryant has been an early standout player during the Broncos’ OTA practices.
A full breakout for Bryant may still prove difficult, but the larger point holds: the soon to be 31-year-old Sutton suddenly has real target competition on every side. I’d easily fade Sutton’s 73.6 average draft position (ADP) on Apex for the usually undrafted Bryant.
Drafters are paying for safety, but the collapse risk for Sutton is much higher than it appears on the surface.
Josh Jacobs by Asher Molk
After carrying the Packers’ offense for the better part of two seasons, Jacobs made the wrong kind of headlines this offseason:
Aside from the allegations (if true) being heinous on a human level, it also casts some doubt on his potential availability for the 2026 season. Remember, the NFL conducts its own investigation and can suspend players even if they aren’t convicted of a crime. They can also place them on the Commissioner Exempt List if the crime is violent in nature. It may affect him this season, next season, or never – but it is certainly a variable that needs to be considered in your fantasy drafts.
If that weren’t enough, it’s clear that Father Time is beginning to catch up to Jacobs. He turned 28 in February, which is historically the beginning of the decline. But the efficiency metrics tell us the downturn may have begun last year (props to PlayerProfiler for the data):
| Year | PPR/G | YPC | Yards Created/Touch | Evaded Tackles/G | EPA | Snap Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 17.2 | 4.9 | 3.82 | 5.2 | -1.5 | 62.8% |
| 2025 | 15.9 | 4.0 | 3.41 | 4.5 | 0 | 60.4% |
Once the explosiveness and efficiency begin to wane, they’re almost certain to continue in that direction.
In addition, Jacobs won’t pay off at ADP from his passing game involvement. He hasn’t topped 37 catches since 2022, and the Packers were a paltry 22nd in RB targets last season. If he doesn’t significantly improve on his 4.0 YPC, his rushing yard totals won’t be enough either since the Packers ran the t-2nd fewest plays per 60 minutes in the NFL last year.
You’re also betting on the Packers playing from a consistently positive game script, which Jacobs has greatly benefited from since the majority of his value is dependent on touchdowns. While they are likely to win plenty of games yet again, it simply adds another variable to consider when taking into account all of the above. His splits in wins vs. losses are stark:
Finally, the Packers may actually have a capable backup. After an unfortunate slew of injuries, 2024 3rd round pick Marshawn Lloyd is finally healthy.
Don’t forget that he finished first in broken tackle percentage and yards after contact per attempt among RBs in the 2024 draft class and ran a 4.46 at 220 lbs (93rd percentile speed score). He is already turning heads in camp and offers an explosive complement (and potential threat) to Jacobs.
Your opportunity cost in drafting Jacobs is significant. You’ll have to pass on Nico Collins, George Pickens, Malik Nabers and DeVonta Smith. If you’re dead set on an RB with the same archetype as Jacobs (good offense with double–digit TD potential), you may as well select Kyren Williams, who is two years younger and averaged a career-high 4.8 ypc last year with similar ADP.
