In 2026, reasonably priced running backs are harder to find than ever. The days of rookie backs going cheap before they’ve produced are gone – the fantasy market has grown far more efficient. And yet, on Jaylen Warren, the market is still too low.
Warren is Good as a Rusher
Normally you won’t see me hyping up a running back entering his age-28 season. But I think most fantasy owners don’t realize quite how good Warren is.
Warren didn’t carry a heavy rushing workload early in his career, but that changed last season: 211 carries across 16 games, and he stayed efficient at 4.5 yards per carry – right in line with his 4.7 career average.
If yards per carry don’t do it for you, hopefully the advanced metrics will. Per RotoViz, Warren finished with a 21% evasion. Out of RBs with at least 100 carries, that ranked 9th. He also forced 53 missed tackles, per Pro Football Focus, good for eighth in the NFL last year.
Warren’s evasiveness isn’t new, either – he also cleared a 20% evasion rate in 2024. The other RBs to meet the criteria in both years: Jahmyr Gibbs, Bijan Robinson, Kenneth Walker, and Zach Charbonnet.
Receiving Ability
Overshadowed by the recency bias of Kenny Gainwell’s 73 receptions, many have forgotten just how good a receiver Warren has been. In 2023, he caught 61 passes as a second-year player, and he has been steady ever since, even without gaudy raw totals.
Since the start of 2023, his 139 receptions rank eighth among running backs, and he has been efficient with them, averaging 6.1 yards per target. Here’s a list of just 11 RBs with at least 100 receptions and 6 YPT since 2023.
| Player | G | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD | Y/G | Y/Tgt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 51 | 261 | 198 | 1738 | 9 | 34.1 | 6.7 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 37 | 231 | 184 | 1634 | 14 | 44.2 | 7.1 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 49 | 228 | 181 | 1449 | 10 | 29.6 | 6.4 |
| De'Von Achane | 44 | 209 | 172 | 1277 | 13 | 29 | 6.1 |
| Breece Hall | 49 | 219 | 169 | 1424 | 8 | 29.1 | 6.5 |
| Rachaad White | 50 | 172 | 155 | 1160 | 9 | 23.2 | 6.7 |
| Jaylen Warren | 48 | 166 | 139 | 1013 | 2 | 21.1 | 6.1 |
| D'Andre Swift | 49 | 149 | 115 | 899 | 2 | 18.3 | 6 |
| James Cook | 50 | 132 | 109 | 994 | 8 | 19.9 | 7.5 |
| Josh Jacobs | 45 | 141 | 109 | 920 | 2 | 20.4 | 6.5 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 43 | 126 | 106 | 840 | 2 | 19.5 | 6.7 |
With Gainwell now gone, Warren is positioned to absorb even more of the receiving work this season.
Rico Dowdle
The Steelers added Rico Dowdle this offseason, giving Warren a new backfield partner. Dowdle broke out as a 26-year-old in 2024 with the Cowboys under Mike McCarthy.
Dowdle has been a solid rusher over the last two seasons and brings a different element to the backfield – more of a downhill, early-down complement to Warren.
Dowdle posted a historic two-game stretch without Chuba Hubbard in the lineup last season, but his full-season profile was far more modest – just a 13% evasion rate.
In the 15 games he shared with Hubbard, Dowdle averaged just 10.1 PPR points per game, rushing 183 times for 687 yards – a mere 3.75 yards per carry.
Dowdle has caught an impressive 78 passes over the last two seasons, but even his biggest backers wouldn’t argue he’s the better receiver. His path to volume is early-down rushing and goal-line work – not the passing-down role that belongs to Warren.
A Pass-Friendly Backfield
The passing game points Warren’s way, too. At this stage of his career, Aaron Rodgers leans heavily on his running backs – nearly one of every four targets went to the position last season, as he looks to get the ball out quickly and avoid hits.
Ian Hartitz noted on X that 15 of 20 QBs age 38 or older, to start at least 10 games, ranked top-eight in RB targets.
Arthur Smith’s scheme likely fed those RB targets as well, and the addition of Michael Pittman gives the offense another proven target earner. Even so, as the clear receiving back in this backfield, Warren has real upside in a target-friendly environment.
Price
At RB28, Warren’s price is extremely palatable. On Apex, he’s being selected at the same ADP as Chuba Hubbard, five spots behind Jadarian Price and 1.3 spots ahead of Tony Pollard. He’s being selected just six picks ahead of Jonathan Brooks.
In Summary
Warren pairs impressive efficiency as a runner with potentially high-end usage as a receiver. He may lose some goal-line carries, but I don’t think his draft position is adequately adjusted for his upside. Warren is a better all-around back than Dowdle. If he can split the rushing workload while taking most of the receiving work, Warren can certainly finish as a top-20 running back for the second straight season.
And if the numbers weren’t enough, here’s Jaylen Warren dragging a soccer goal across a field during an offseason workout.
