Fantasy football is often about planning your draft throughout to determine the optimal place to select each position. By planning the draft, you avoid missing out on (and hitting) pockets of value. For 1QB leagues in 2026, the position appears quite deep.
That depth is the whole story. When a position is this deep, the real cost of drafting a QB early isn’t the QB you take — it’s the running back, receiver, or tight end you pass on to get him. This article walks down the QB board tier by tier to show you exactly how far that value falls, and why waiting is almost always the winning move.
The Elite
In Apex leagues, Josh Allen with an ADP of 34 is going over two rounds before any other QB.
Allen is about as consistent as they come, but his price tag is significantly steeper than the rest — and the production gap may not justify it. Last year, he outscored Matthew Stafford by just 1 point per game, and he did so while rushing for 14 touchdowns. He’s hit double-digit rushing TDs in three straight seasons, but any regression there would almost certainly erase his value at that cost.
After Allen, Lamar Jackson is the second most expensive — he’s going two rounds after Allen. Jackson’s dip in price is compelling after he led the position with 26.3 fantasy points per game in 2024. But to get him, you’ll need to bypass premium selections like Luther Burden, Bhayshul Tuten, and Tyler Warren.
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Paying Up
Drake Maye and Joe Burrow are the only other QBs being selected in the top 80. Maye is obviously a stud, but he comes with his own concerns. After leading the NFL in completion percentage, yards per attempt, and passer rating, he looks due for regression. And like Jackson, acquiring him means passing on other compelling options.
Even if we remove his injury game, Burrow averaged 19.6 points per game last season. That would be good for 9th on the season. His lack of rushing ability limits his upside. Even when he finished as the QB2 in 2024, Burrow did so on just 42 rushing attempts.
The context matters: out of the top 12 QBs last season, only Goff and Stafford finished with fewer than 50 rushing attempts. In today’s NFL where passing production has been recently decreasing by the year, that lack of rushing floor is exactly what caps Burrow’s ceiling.
Stars with Upside
Right around the start of the 8th round is where Jayden Daniels goes as the QB5. Daniels is a much more affordable way to play elite QB. He doesn’t carry the same opportunity cost, yet he offers elite upside as a young rushing QB who averaged 21.6 fantasy points per game as a rookie. Daniels has supporting cast issues (though that was also true during his sublime rookie campaign), but if he can combine his rookie year rushing volume with passing efficiency, he’s a player who could be a big hit at his ADP.
Caleb Williams struggled as a rookie, taking a league-high 68 sacks. Despite a low completion percentage, he took a huge step in Year 2, reducing his sacks to just 24 and increasing his yards per attempt by 0.6. Now in his second year under arguably the league’s best offensive mind, with new weapons in Colston Loveland and Luther Burden, he may be in for a huge season.
Jalen Hurts was a third-round pick in drafts last season. He’d had four consecutive seasons with double-digit rushing TDs before that streak snapped, and suddenly — without consistent rushing scores or heavy passing volume — he slipped to a QB7 finish in points per game. It’s hard to imagine a scenario where he doesn’t need his legs to be successful again.
Potential League Winning Fallers
At QB8 in ADP, Justin Herbert looks poised for a big season. Despite playing most of the season without both of his all-world tackles, Herbert finished as the QB8 at 19.7 PPG. Herbert finished with over 23 fantasy PPG in each of his first two seasons. Now paired with Mike McDaniel in an offensive situation that is among the best in the league, he looks ready to take the next step.
Before breaking out as the QB6 with 21.5 PPG last season, Trevor Lawrence had largely been a disappointment. He topped his previous high by 2.5 fantasy points per game and nearly reached double—digit rushing touchdowns. He now enters his second season with Liam Cohen, armed with four intriguing wide receivers.
Dak Prescott isn’t the same rusher he was early in his career but has consistently produced explosive numbers as a passer. He plays fast and racks up volume — while predominantly passing to two of the league’s best receivers. His lack of explosive rushing ability hurts the upside argument, but he provides consistent scoring nonetheless.
Jaxson Dart excelled as a rookie and the ability to select him as QB11 makes the investment of an early QB difficult. While his stats show 14 games played, he barely played in the first two — rushing once in each game with no pass attempts. Strip those games out and he averaged 21.1 PPG as a rookie — all without Malik Nabers. The closer you look, the more his rookie year resembles Josh Allen’s.
| Player | G | Comp | Att | Cmp% | PaYds | Y/A | PassTD | RuAtt | RuYDs | RushTD | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 12 | 13.5 | 26.7 | 0.51 | 172.8 | 6.5 | 0.83 | 7.4 | 52.6 | 0.67 | 19.5 |
| Jaxson Dart | 12 | 18 | 28.3 | 0.64 | 189.3 | 6.7 | 1.25 | 7 | 40.6 | 0.75 | 21.1 |
Late-Round Steals
Coming off his best season as a rusher, Patrick Mahomes has rushing volume concerns in his return from his torn ACL and damaged LCL. Still, even in what has felt like a disappointing stretch, Mahomes hasn’t averaged less than 19 fantasy points per game since his rookie year. He averaged 21.7 last season.
In terms of per—game scoring, aside from Josh Allen, only Brock Purdy finished above 22 fantasy points per game last season — and he’s being drafted as QB13 at pick 126. His weapons don’t look as strong this year, and it’ll be hard for the 49ers to lean on an aging Christian McCaffrey in the run game.
Bo Nix enters his third season with the spotlight off him. He’s extremely cheap but has averaged at least 19 fantasy points per game in both seasons. Jaylen Waddle should help Nix reach new heights as a passer, while he’s racked up an average of 87.5 rushing attempts in his first two seasons.
Matthew Stafford finished third in fantasy scoring last season and is being drafted as QB15. It’s hard to believe he’ll finish as a top-three QB again, but there’s no doubt the Rams remain among the league’s most effective passing offenses.
I’ve written about the top 15 QBs in ADP without mentioning dark horse candidates like Kyler Murray, Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield, and Tyler Shough. Or the potentially game-breaking rushing ability of Malik Willis, who scored 33.5 points in his start against the Ravens last season.
The purpose of this exercise was to show you the sheer depth of the position. With so many excellent options, waiting at QB seems like the superior option.
Opportunity Cost
This is where the tour pays off. The depth above matters because of what it lets you do with your early picks. Where Josh Allen is being selected, you need to pass on players like Emeka Egbuka or Breece Hall. Where Jaxson Dart is being selected, you need to pass on players like Romeo Doubs and Isaiah Likely. The opportunity cost is not comparable.
Play it out. Draft Allen in the third round and you’re passing on an every-week starter like Breece Hall or Emeka Egbuka to do it. Wait until the eighth for Jayden Daniels — a QB who averaged 21.6 points per game as a rookie — and the player you skip instead is Rico Dowdle or Rhamondre Stevenson. You’ve pocketed roughly four rounds of premium skill-position talent that has a much more significant gap than at QB.
It’s not like you need to miss out on the exciting players either. Guys like Justin Herbert, Jaxson Dart, or even Kyler Murray, come with all sorts of compelling upside. And considering the opportunity cost, you can easily select two of them and play the player with superior upside.
It also doesn’t matter which of these QBs falls to you. If other teams fade Hurts on recency bias and let him slide, he’s still a threat to lead the position in rushing touchdowns. If teams would prefer to avoid Williams because of his nail polish, I’ll happily take the upside of Ben Johnson’s offense.
It’s quite possible that multiple teams in your league are using this same strategy — pushing QB even further down the board and making the position cheaper still. The worst feeling in fantasy drafting is taking the QB early and watching the remaining teams pass on them.
I tend to be a more risk-tolerant fantasy player, so I’m not as interested in safety. But a safety option like Stafford or Goff, paired with an upside option like Dart, Kyler or Nix is also a very reasonable approach.
In Summary
Quarterback is extremely deep this season and there are several ways to play it. What I’d avoid is passing on a premium RB, WR, or TE just to lock in an expensive QB. Even if the top options are gone, there’s plenty of flexibility left at the position.
