After signing a four-year, $114 million extension, Alec Pierce is coming off the board at pick 65.5 in early one-year Apex drafts. Josh Downs is going almost two full rounds later, at 86.3 overall. Downs, not Pierce, is the Colts receiver to target — and the gap between them is narrower than the price suggests.
It’s worth remembering how good this offense was. Before Daniel Jones tore his Achilles in Week 13, the Colts were among the league’s best offenses, leading the NFL with 357 points scored through 12 games. There is real fantasy value to be had here — the question is who captures it.
111 Targets Just Left the Building
Michael Pittman’s departure freed up 111 targets, and this is an offense that funnels. Even before Pittman left, the Colts were heavily concentrated: only Tyler Warren, Pittman, Downs, and Pierce drew more than Jonathan Taylor’s 55 targets, and behind Taylor no other player topped 20. Warren — who finished one target ahead of Pittman to lead the team in 2025 — will command his share. The rest has to go somewhere, and where it goes depends on which receiver earns targets. That’s the whole ballgame.
Targets Are the Lifeblood of Fantasy Scoring
It’s hard to produce without targets, especially in PPR leagues — and it’s hard for a player to suddenly become a high-volume target earner when he never has been. That’s the case against Pierce.
His 2025 season looks great on the surface. He topped 1,000 yards for the first time, averaged a fantastic 11.9 yards per target, and led the NFL with 21.3 yards per reception. But he did it on just 84 targets, and for his career, he has never caught more than 47 passes. At a 53% career catch rate, his fantasy value depends on a high rate of big plays landing — a thin, volatile foundation for weekly production.
Here’s how the Colts’ top three receivers have been used over the last two seasons:
| Player | Season | Routes | Rec | Yds | Tgt % | ADoT | Catch % | TPRR | YPRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Pierce | 2025 | 478 | 47 | 1003 | 18.0% | 18.96 | 56.0% | 0.18 | 2.10 |
| Michael Pittman | 2025 | 542 | 80 | 784 | 20.9% | 8.17 | 72.1% | 0.20 | 1.45 |
| Josh Downs | 2025 | 381 | 58 | 566 | 17.7% | 7.49 | 65.9% | 0.23 | 1.49 |
| Player | Season | Routes | Rec | Yds | Tgt % | ADoT | Catch % | TPRR | YPRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Pierce | 2024 | 452 | 37 | 824 | 14.4% | 21.74 | 53.6% | 0.15 | 1.82 |
| Michael Pittman | 2024 | 483 | 69 | 808 | 24.3% | 11.12 | 62.2% | 0.23 | 1.67 |
| Josh Downs | 2024 | 365 | 72 | 803 | 25.6% | 6.86 | 67.3% | 0.29 | 2.20 |
Pittman anchored the offense in both years, leading the team in routes and targets and, per Pro-Football-Reference.com, in snaps as well, averaging 87%. The more telling comparison is how efficiently Downs and Pierce turned routes into targets.
In 2025, Pierce ran nearly 100 more routes than Downs yet was out-targeted by four. Downs earned a target on 23% of his routes to Pierce’s 18%, despite playing just 59% of the snaps to Pierce’s 86%. When Downs was on the field, the ball found him. Pierce’s volume was a product of playing time, not of winning targets. It’s fair to note he was hurt by the loss of Jones, since Phillip Rivers’ skill set doesn’t align with the deep-shot role Pierce fills.
The 2024 numbers are even starker. Pierce ran 87 more routes than Downs and was out-targeted by 28. Downs drew a target on 29% of his routes; Pierce, just 15%. Across both seasons, the pattern holds: Downs is the more efficient target earner by a wide margin, and Pierce’s raw route totals mask how rarely he’s actually thrown to.
Where Those Targets Come From
Efficiency is only half the story. Where a player is targeted matters just as much, because it tells you whose role he can absorb. As the ADoT column shows, Pierce operates far down the field, while Downs works the short and intermediate areas — the same zones Pittman just vacated.
Pittman lived underneath. Just 18 of his 111 targets traveled 15 or more yards downfield, while 40 came fewer than five yards past the line. His target map, from RotoViz, shows an offense that fed its lead receiver on high-percentage looks:
Michael Pittman 2025 — targets by pass location (RotoViz)
Pierce is opposite. He saw just two targets shorter than five yards, and 52 of his 84 targets — 62% — came 15+ yards downfield. That’s a boom-or-bust profile, not a target-share engine:
Alec Pierce 2025 — targets by pass location (RotoViz)
Downs, by contrast, has thrived in exactly the areas Pittman is leaving behind. In 2025, only 15 of his 88 targets came 15+ yards downfield; he had 35 in the intermediate range and 38 inside five yards.
Josh Downs 2025 — targets by pass location (RotoViz)
2024 tells the same story: 43 intermediate targets and 47 inside five yards. Downs’ target map looks far more like Pittman’s than Pierce’s — which is precisely why he’s positioned to inherit the vacated volume.
Josh Downs 2024 — targets by pass location (RotoViz)
The 2026 Outlook
The history is clear: Downs is the superior target earner and the closer stylistic match to the role Pittman leaves behind. The forward-looking news only widens the gap.
Pierce underwent ankle surgery this offseason with a four-to-six-month recovery timeline. The latest reporting suggests he may not be back until late in training camp. Compounding the concern, Jones’ Achilles injury could limit his ability to throw deep — the exact area of the field where Pierce makes his living.
While Pierce should earn more targets following the departure of Pittman, it’s hard to imagine his valuable real football role changing much – especially without much training camp.
Downs, meanwhile, is trending up. Andrew Moore of SI reports that his role is set to expand well beyond the slot:
“Gone are the days of Downs being used as only a slot receiver. Steichen plans to move Downs all around the formation, giving him ample opportunities to play on the outside and exploit mismatches against opposing defenses.”
“I think Downs, his role will step up a little bit more — more targets for him,” Steichen explained. “He’s a hell of a player…”
The Bottom Line
Downs offers historical target-earning efficiency, a skill set that overlaps with the departing Pittman, and an expanding role on an offense that ranked among the league’s best when healthy. Pierce offers gaudy efficiency on a thin target base he’s never sustained at volume, a boom-or-bust field profile, and a murky injury outlook heading into camp.
The market is paying up for the wrong Colt. At nearly two rounds cheaper, Downs is the receiver to draft. Let’s just hope the Colts don’t add Keenan Allen.
