Fantasy football is about winning your league, and winning takes upside — the teams that never take risks rarely walk away with the big prize. But some of this year’s most compelling upside plays come with real red flags attached. Should you be fading them, or drafting them?
Emeka Egbuka, ADP 39.5
Entering the NFL, it was difficult to know how good Emeka Egbuka is. While he went 19th overall in the NFL Draft, he didn’t have the normal college production of a top-20 selection.
In four years at Ohio State, he played with the likes of Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Marvin Harrison Jr., Carnell Tate, and Jeremiah Smith. As a result, he didn’t reach dominant market share numbers.
Still, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat writers wouldn’t stop raving about his dominance in his first training camp, and that buzz pushed his average draft position (ADP) steadily upward throughout draft season.
Through his first five games, he was having a historic rookie year.
| PLAYER | TEAM | SEAS | GM | REC | TGT | reYD | TD | YPT | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puka Nacua | LAR | 2023 | 5 | 46 | 63 | 572 | 2 | 9.1 | 115.6 |
| Emeka Egbuka | TB | 2025 | 5 | 25 | 39 | 445 | 5 | 11.4 | 100.4 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | CIN | 2021 | 5 | 23 | 35 | 456 | 5 | 13 | 98.4 |
| Anquan Boldin | ARI | 2003 | 5 | 33 | 50 | 497 | 2 | 9.9 | 94.7 |
| CeeDee Lamb | DAL | 2020 | 5 | 29 | 39 | 433 | 2 | 11.1 | 85.6 |
| A.J. Green | CIN | 2011 | 5 | 24 | 41 | 402 | 3 | 9.8 | 82.8 |
Egbuka was the WR9 through Week 11 and then the WR64 from Week 12-18. Baker Mayfield suffered an AC joint sprain in Week 12, which from that point forward resulted in Egbuka’s catchable ball rate falling to tie for worst among WRs.
In addition, Egbuka suffered a hamstring injury in Week 6. ESPN’s Benjamin Solak noted:
“A Week 6 hamstring injury robbed him of his top speed; NFL Next Gen Stats tracking data had Egbuka with 11 routes of at least 18 miles per hour through the first five weeks of the season… and 11 such routes in the remaining 12 weeks, after the hamstring injury.”
With the departure of Mike Evans, Egbuka looks poised for a huge target share. He saw his targets rise from a 108 per season pace with Evans to 149 without.
Offensive Coordinator Zac Robinson had the following to say about Egbuka:
“We’ll settle him into one spot, kind of our ‘Z’ spot, but again in some instances he might look like he’s playing the ‘X,’ in some instances he might be the ‘F’ just based on the formation and how you can move him around. But Mek, just getting to know him the last handful of weeks, it’s incredible just how – I know I keep throwing the word ‘intentional’ around but that is him to a ‘T.’ A lot of work and preparation that he puts into it – he’s very similar to a Cooper Kupp, just in terms of the way his brain works with the game of football and his natural instincts.”
Being compared to Cooper Kupp by the coach that helped Kupp achieve the receiving triple crown can only be viewed as bullish. This role in Robinson’s offense is much more favorable than the role that we saw Egbuka play last season.
The bad news: Egbuka is missing valuable camp time and could miss Week 1. Even if he is back, he could be eased back in with the dreaded turf toe. There’s also significant risk of re-injury.
I snagged him in the 3rd round of the Apex Experts draft. Subsequently, this injury has caused Egbuka’s ADP to slide back half a round. There is certainly plenty of risk here – but the ceiling is sky high.
Omarion Hampton, ADP 16.4
A first-round pick last year, Omarion Hampton’s profile has many compelling elements. He dominated work in his final two seasons at North Carolina, rushing for over 3,100 yards and 30 touchdowns while catching 67 passes.
At the combine, Hampton ran a 4.46 at 221 lbs., which equates to a 93rd percentile speed score.
As a rookie, Hampton impressed with 3.1 yards after contact per attempt and top-10 evasion percentage. During the regular season, Hampton finished 7th in receptions per game (3.6) behind just Christian McCaffrey, Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Kenneth Gainwell, Chase Brown, and De’Von Achane.
While he may have the league’s best backup in Keaton Mitchell, Hampton should monopolize the high-value touches. At 221 lbs., it’s hard to imagine him being replaced at the goal line. On third downs, he profiles as the best pass-blocker and receiver.
Led by offensive guru Mike McDaniel, with the returns of all-world tackles Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater, the Chargers could be among the league’s elite offenses this season.
Per the Coachspeak Index, McDaniel said the following about the running back share between Hampton, Mitchell, and Kimani Vidal:
“There’s good news and bad news, fantasy owners. The good news is that I see all three of those guys producing at a very high level. The bad news is that I can’t tell you which games those are. I think there’s gonna be opportunities for him to have a ton of touches. I like to have backs be fresh. But I’m also not very comfortable to take a guy out when I can tell he’s in the zone. So, you kinda play “hot hand” once you’re into games. But, specifically, I’ll use all three of those guys — probably every game. The relative ratio will be based on opponent and what we’re asking the guys to do.”
Since this quote, Hampton’s ADP has fallen from 11th to 16th overall. It’s hard to imagine the Chargers consistently rotating three running backs – but one could argue Mitchell is the better cost-adjusted bet. Whether you want to take the plunge on him will depend on your risk tolerance – but he clearly has plenty of league-winning upside.
Cam Skattebo, ADP 35.9
I wrote all about why Cam Skattebo was ready to take the NFL by storm last offseason. He reached rarified air as a prospect, excelling as a receiver and breaking tackles at a historical level.
As a rookie, he only played 10 games but finished 10th in per-game scoring – despite not having the starting job to begin the season. Like Hampton, he was a high-value touch king and displayed excellent evasion ability.
The bad news is Skattebo’s season ended with a severe right ankle dislocation and open tibia fracture. It’s not an injury that generally has a quick recovery and can result in decreased performance the following season (see Pollard, Tony).
Per the Coachspeak Index, John Harbaugh recently said on Skattebo: “… I don’t think he’s 100%, and he would say that he’s not…”.
In addition to health concerns, Skattebo split snaps with Tyrone Tracy and Devin Singletary in the opener. Following the game (and a blown block from Tracy), the Giants signed Najee Harris. While Harris isn’t a talent threat, it’s becoming obvious that the Giants do not plan to give Skattebo a workhorse role when the season starts.
Despite the obvious talent, Skattebo has become a difficult selection at a late third-round price tag. The upside that made him a breakout last season is hopefully still there, but between the ankle, a crowded backfield, and a coaching staff not convinced of his health, you’re paying a premium for a role that no longer looks secure.
