Fantasy football has evolved quite a bit over the past decade. No longer is “drafting season” only in late August and early September. With the popularity of dynasty leagues and draft-only best ball leagues like MFL10s, fantasy footballers are drafting teams as early as February. This will be part one in a series where I look at positional ADPs to see what value stands out as well as who is possibly being over-drafted. Courtesy of the RotoViz Best Ball App, Let’s see what the current ADP trends tell us about the WR position and how we can use them to our advantage:
MFL10 Wide Receiver ADP
Because of their popularity, MFL10s (a “best ball” league that is hosted by MyFantasyLeague) give us a really nice sample size for ADP in PPR leagues. How are people drafting wide receivers right now?
| Name | Positional ADP | Actual ADP |
|---|---|---|
| Brown, Antonio PIT | 1 | 3.92 |
| Beckham, Odell NYG | 2 | 5.51 |
| Jones, Julio ATL | 3 | 5.88 |
| Evans, Mike TBB | 4 | 7.22 |
| Green, A.J. CIN | 5 | 8.74 |
| Nelson, Jordy GBP | 6 | 13.33 |
| Thomas, Michael NOS | 7 | 13.69 |
| Hilton, T.Y. IND | 8 | 14.82 |
| Cooper, Amari OAK | 9 | 16.43 |
| Bryant, Dez DAL | 10 | 19.42 |
| Hopkins, DeAndre HOU | 11 | 22.84 |
| Baldwin, Doug SEA | 12 | 23.26 |
| Cooks, Brandin NEP | 13 | 26.42 |
| Robinson, Allen JAC | 14 | 28.27 |
| Thomas, Demaryius DEN | 15 | 29.61 |
| Watkins, Sammy BUF | 16 | 31.86 |
| Allen, Keenan LAC | 17 | 34.12 |
| Landry, Jarvis MIA | 18 | 35.62 |
| Adams, Davante GBP | 19 | 37.31 |
| Jeffery, Alshon PHI | 20 | 37.57 |
| Pryor, Terrelle WAS | 21 | 41.28 |
| Hill, Tyreek KCC | 22 | 43.24 |
| Crabtree, Michael OAK | 23 | 45.08 |
| Tate, Golden DET | 24 | 45.1 |
| Diggs, Stefon MIN | 25 | 48.92 |
| Bryant, Martavis PIT | 26 | 50.22 |
| Fitzgerald, Larry ARI | 27 | 51.45 |
| Edelman, Julian NEP | 28 | 54.35 |
| Snead, Willie NOS | 29 | 56.53 |
| Crowder, Jamison WAS | 30 | 56.7 |
| Sanders, Emmanuel DEN | 31 | 58.14 |
| Moncrief, Donte IND | 32 | 60.7 |
| Marshall, Brandon NYG | 33 | 69.88 |
| Parker, DeVante MIA | 34 | 70.62 |
| Garcon, Pierre SFO | 35 | 71.91 |
| Benjamin, Kelvin CAR | 36 | 72.19 |
| Jackson, DeSean TBB | 37 | 76.3 |
| Cobb, Randall GBP | 38 | 79.19 |
| Davis, Corey TEN | 39 | 79.45 |
| Meredith, Cameron CHI | 40 | 88.23 |
| Brown, John ARI | 41 | 92.18 |
| Maclin, Jeremy BAL | 42 | 92.6 |
| Decker, Eric TEN | 43 | 94.49 |
| Coleman, Corey CLE | 44 | 95.59 |
| Williams, Tyrell LAC | 45 | 105.23 |
| Matthews, Jordan PHI | 46 | 107.89 |
| Wallace, Mike BAL | 47 | 109.43 |
| Enunwa, Quincy NYJ | 48 | 112.71 |
| Thielen, Adam MIN | 49 | 114.2 |
| Britt, Kenny CLE | 50 | 116.17 |
- The “big three” wideouts are all repeats from last year, and with good reason. Although Antonio Brown and Odell Beckham have a little more competition for targets this year than Julio Jones, the latter’s health issues and lack of touchdowns probably push him to third.
- The next tier consists of AJ Green, Mike Evans, and Jordy Nelson. Green and Evans, while both have added target competition, are alpha WR1s in their prime. Jordy Nelson has a few red flags though. His average YPR from 2011-2014: 16.2. Last year, it was only 13.0. Coming off of an ACL tear and being 32 will explain that… but as long as he continues to be Aaron Rodgers’ chain-mover and red-zone maven, he’ll be just fine.
- Marques Colston topped 131 targets only once…Cooks’ career high was 129…Michael Thomas had 121 last year and finished as the WR7. Is his ceiling as high as we think? Either way, he’s a high-floor option as the WR1 for Drew Brees.
- Doug Baldwin finished as the WR10 in 2015 and WR8 last year while being drafted as WR12 this year. With no added target competition, that is a steal.
- In games where Jay Ajayi got single-digit carries, Landry averaged 8 receptions for 94 yards on 11 targets. All other games? 5 catches for 63 yards on 7 targets. With Ajayi as the offensive centerpiece and the presence of DeVante Parker, Kenny Stills, and Julius Thomas, Landry’s floor is looking shakier. Never a high-ceiling player, he is an average WR2.
- Amari Cooper or Michael Crabtree three rounds later? I discuss it here. The past two seasons have seen Crabtree out-target and out-score Cooper, but fantasy football is a forward-thinking exercise. The Amari Cooper superstar tour is coming, but will it be this year? Crabtree seems to have the trust of Derek Carr.
- Death, taxes, and Golden Tate being undervalued. He’s finished as WR12, WR24 and WR17 the past three seasons and he is being drafted as the WR24. After beginning the year with a grand total of 30.4 fantasy points over his first five games, he won people leagues down the stretch. With Marvin Jones being exposed as an imposter and no other offseason additions besides Kenny Golladay, Tate is going to feast again. The loss of left tackle Taylor Decker may render this more of a short and intermediate passing game – Tate’s bread and butter.
- Martavis Bryant over bonafide WR1s Fitzgerald and Edelman? Seems a bit risky for the third option in his respective passing game coming off of a yearlong suspension.
- Give me Jamison Crowder two rounds later than Jarvis Landry. A real threat for 100 catches on an explosive offense, Crowder is going to win a lot of fantasy leagues if his ADP stays in the 5th round.
- Corey Davis is going to be a really good player in this league, but I don’t have to tell you about all the mouths to feed in Tennessee. I can’t think of a good argument for him being drafted over Cameron Meredith or even Kenny Britt.
- John Brown as WR41? Yes, please. With Palmer finishing on a high note and Brown himself finally healthy with no Michael Floyd blocking him and Fitzgerald another year older, this is a very cheap source of 100+ targets.
- Quincy Enunwa is the de facto WR1 with the departure of Eric Decker. Last year’s WR44 is being drafted at WR48. He could be a cheap source of at least 70-80 catches, health permitting.
- Speaking of Kenny Britt, he finished as WR26 on Jared Goff’s Rams. Somehow only 28 years old, he should be going 10-15 spots higher than his WR50 ADP. Combining his contract with Corey Coleman missing time, Britt could be a great bye-week filler with upside for more.
