With the trade deadline past and the waiver wire stripped barren, Apex owners that are battling for a playoff spot could be left feeling hopeless with a roster full of middling players. Rather than rolling out a lineup full of average players that’s unlikely to fall a league Goliath, owners that are decided underdogs should plug in players that are more volatile, which in turn gives the entire roster greater upside.
Targeting Player Upside
Two of my 4for4.com colleagues, John Paulsen and Chris Raybon, have done extensive work on player consistency and volatility using the Coefficient of Variation (CV). John gives a detailed explanation of CV here. The formula for calculating CV is:
CV = Standard Deviation / PPG
The ratio of standard deviation in weekly points scored to fantasy points per game tells us how consistent a player is. If you’re getting a glazed over look with all this math talk, all you need to know is that a lower CV means a player is more consistent, and a higher CV means a player is more volatile, and in turn has more upside.
Once we have the CV for each player, we can calculate approximate ceilings with this formula:
FP Ceiling = AVG PPG + (CV*AVG PPG)
This allows us to compare players with similar season long production and decide which player provides us with the highest upside.
I’ve done all the standard deviation and CV calculations through Week 11. Here’s a positional breakdown of player volatility:
Quarterbacks
Player | PPG AVG | StdDev | CV | Ceiling |
---|---|---|---|---|
Andrew Luck | 26.2 | 4.7 | 17.85% | 30.9 |
Peyton Manning | 24.3 | 5.1 | 20.84% | 29.4 |
Aaron Rodgers | 23.9 | 8.4 | 35.13% | 32.3 |
Russell Wilson | 21.2 | 8.9 | 42.13% | 30.1 |
Ben Roethlisberger | 19.9 | 11.2 | 56.54% | 31.1 |
Drew Brees | 19.7 | 3.1 | 15.59% | 22.7 |
Jay Cutler | 19.6 | 5.4 | 27.32% | 25.0 |
Tom Brady | 19.5 | 9.3 | 47.85% | 28.9 |
Philip Rivers | 18.4 | 7.9 | 42.95% | 26.3 |
Ryan Tannehill | 18.1 | 5.5 | 30.25% | 23.6 |
Carson Palmer | 17.9 | 4.9 | 27.41% | 22.8 |
Matt Ryan | 17.9 | 6.0 | 33.59% | 23.9 |
Tony Romo | 17.6 | 4.9 | 28.04% | 22.6 |
Colin Kaepernick | 17.4 | 5.0 | 28.94% | 22.4 |
Cam Newton | 17.1 | 7.3 | 42.56% | 24.4 |
Eli Manning | 16.8 | 8.0 | 47.75% | 24.9 |
Kyle Orton | 16.7 | 6.0 | 35.65% | 22.7 |
Matthew Stafford | 16.7 | 7.5 | 44.84% | 24.1 |
Kirk Cousins | 16.6 | 8.6 | 51.85% | 25.2 |
Nick Foles | 16.5 | 6.9 | 42.02% | 23.5 |
Joe Flacco | 16.4 | 7.8 | 47.44% | 24.2 |
Mike Glennon | 15.9 | 4.0 | 24.91% | 19.9 |
Josh McCown | 15.7 | 8.3 | 53.05% | 24.0 |
Andy Dalton | 15.3 | 7.0 | 45.90% | 22.3 |
Ryan Fitzpatrick | 14.9 | 5.0 | 33.38% | 19.8 |
Blake Bortles | 14.4 | 4.3 | 29.95% | 18.7 |
Alex Smith | 14.3 | 5.2 | 36.48% | 19.5 |
Brian Hoyer | 13.9 | 4.7 | 33.62% | 18.6 |
Austin Davis | 13.3 | 7.4 | 55.57% | 20.7 |
Derek Carr | 13.2 | 6.4 | 48.54% | 19.5 |
Teddy Bridgewater | 12.3 | 5.8 | 47.09% | 18.0 |
Geno Smith | 11.3 | 8.1 | 71.56% | 19.5 |
Running Backs
Player | PPG AVG | StdDev | CV | Ceiling |
---|---|---|---|---|
Arian Foster | 23.6 | 9.1 | 38.54% | 32.7 |
Matt Forte | 23.5 | 9.8 | 41.72% | 33.3 |
DeMarco Murray | 22.4 | 4.4 | 19.39% | 26.8 |
Le'Veon Bell | 20.4 | 6.5 | 31.83% | 26.9 |
Marshawn Lynch | 20.2 | 11.4 | 56.58% | 31.6 |
Jamaal Charles | 18.2 | 10.4 | 57.07% | 28.6 |
Mark Ingram | 17.9 | 6.5 | 36.42% | 24.5 |
Andre Ellington | 16.7 | 6.6 | 39.62% | 23.3 |
Giovani Bernard | 16.4 | 8.7 | 53.09% | 25.0 |
Ahmad Bradshaw | 15.7 | 6.4 | 40.99% | 22.1 |
Justin Forsett | 15.5 | 5.2 | 33.21% | 20.7 |
Eddie Lacy | 15.5 | 9.4 | 60.95% | 24.9 |
Jonas Gray | 14.3 | 20.0 | 140.42% | 34.3 |
Rashad Jennings | 13.9 | 6.6 | 47.64% | 20.5 |
Ronnie Hillman | 13.6 | 9.9 | 72.47% | 23.5 |
Lamar Miller | 13.4 | 5.5 | 40.92% | 18.8 |
Fred Jackson | 13.2 | 6.6 | 50.06% | 19.9 |
Pierre Thomas | 13.0 | 9.9 | 76.75% | 22.9 |
Alfred Morris | 12.7 | 7.2 | 56.67% | 19.8 |
Darren Sproles | 12.4 | 8.1 | 65.37% | 20.5 |
Branden Oliver | 12.4 | 11.0 | 89.24% | 23.4 |
Shane Vereen | 12.2 | 7.8 | 63.94% | 20.1 |
Matt Asiata | 11.7 | 11.0 | 94.01% | 22.7 |
LeSean McCoy | 11.7 | 6.2 | 52.67% | 17.8 |
Jeremy Hill | 11.7 | 8.3 | 71.54% | 20.0 |
Joique Bell | 11.3 | 4.8 | 42.12% | 16.0 |
Chris Ivory | 10.7 | 6.8 | 63.30% | 17.5 |
Trent Richardson | 10.3 | 5.0 | 48.65% | 15.3 |
Bobby Rainey | 10.1 | 6.2 | 61.31% | 16.3 |
Frank Gore | 10.0 | 7.3 | 73.32% | 17.3 |
Darren McFadden | 9.8 | 4.4 | 44.96% | 14.1 |
Reggie Bush | 9.7 | 6.2 | 63.64% | 15.9 |
Roy Helu | 9.7 | 3.8 | 39.12% | 13.4 |
Denard Robinson | 9.4 | 7.3 | 77.98% | 16.7 |
Tre Mason | 9.4 | 4.1 | 44.23% | 13.5 |
Knile Davis | 9.4 | 9.6 | 102.11% | 18.9 |
Jonathan Stewart | 9.3 | 3.9 | 41.89% | 13.2 |
Steven Jackson | 9.3 | 5.5 | 58.89% | 14.7 |
C.J. Spiller | 9.2 | 5.1 | 55.73% | 14.4 |
Benny Cunningham | 9.1 | 4.6 | 50.45% | 13.6 |
Ben Tate | 9.0 | 6.6 | 73.48% | 15.7 |
Stevan Ridley | 8.7 | 6.4 | 73.76% | 15.1 |
Jerick McKinnon | 8.5 | 5.2 | 60.82% | 13.7 |
Terrance West | 8.4 | 6.2 | 73.26% | 14.6 |
Khiry Robinson | 8.3 | 5.7 | 68.92% | 14.0 |
Antone Smith | 7.9 | 6.8 | 86.93% | 14.7 |
Chris Johnson | 7.6 | 6.2 | 81.82% | 13.7 |
Isaiah Crowell | 7.3 | 5.3 | 72.21% | 12.6 |
Zac Stacy | 7.3 | 5.9 | 81.04% | 13.2 |
Bishop Sankey | 7.3 | 4.4 | 60.35% | 11.6 |
Theo Riddick | 7.2 | 8.8 | 122.66% | 15.9 |
Andre Williams | 7.2 | 5.5 | 76.56% | 12.6 |
C.J. Anderson | 6.8 | 9.6 | 140.70% | 16.4 |
Lorenzo Taliaferro | 6.5 | 7.3 | 112.85% | 13.9 |
Travaris Cadet | 6.2 | 4.3 | 69.03% | 10.5 |
Toby Gerhart | 5.7 | 3.7 | 64.24% | 9.4 |
Alfred Blue | 5.7 | 4.9 | 85.69% | 10.5 |
Devonta Freeman | 5.6 | 3.5 | 62.87% | 9.1 |
Carlos Hyde | 5.2 | 3.4 | 64.93% | 8.6 |
LeGarrette Blount | 4.3 | 5.1 | 118.84% | 9.4 |
Jacquizz Rodgers | 4.2 | 2.9 | 69.09% | 7.2 |
Robert Turbin | 4.2 | 3.6 | 86.69% | 7.8 |
James Starks | 4.1 | 3.8 | 91.75% | 7.9 |
Dexter McCluster | 4.0 | 3.7 | 91.65% | 7.7 |
Wide Receivers
Player | PPG AVG | StdDev | CV | Ceiling |
---|---|---|---|---|
Antonio Brown | 23.9 | 7.8 | 32.59% | 31.7 |
Demaryius Thomas | 22.1 | 11.0 | 50.06% | 33.1 |
Jordy Nelson | 21.4 | 10.3 | 48.07% | 31.7 |
Emmanuel Sanders | 20.7 | 8.9 | 42.99% | 29.6 |
Jeremy Maclin | 20.3 | 12.4 | 61.26% | 32.8 |
Randall Cobb | 19.4 | 7.0 | 36.07% | 26.4 |
Mike Evans | 18.6 | 11.2 | 60.29% | 29.8 |
Dez Bryant | 18.3 | 8.5 | 46.51% | 26.9 |
Golden Tate | 18.2 | 8.5 | 46.90% | 26.8 |
Julio Jones | 17.5 | 8.3 | 47.24% | 25.8 |
T.Y. Hilton | 17.4 | 9.2 | 52.81% | 26.5 |
Odell Beckham | 16.3 | 6.6 | 40.39% | 22.9 |
Kelvin Benjamin | 16.0 | 7.8 | 48.89% | 23.8 |
Alshon Jeffery | 15.8 | 7.7 | 48.42% | 23.5 |
Brandon Marshall | 15.5 | 9.5 | 61.71% | 25.0 |
Calvin Johnson | 14.9 | 11.8 | 79.48% | 26.7 |
Roddy White | 14.8 | 7.0 | 47.19% | 21.8 |
A.J. Green | 14.7 | 9.5 | 64.45% | 24.2 |
Mohamed Sanu | 14.7 | 7.8 | 53.15% | 22.5 |
Julian Edelman | 14.6 | 8.2 | 56.35% | 22.8 |
DeSean Jackson | 14.6 | 9.0 | 61.61% | 23.5 |
DeAndre Hopkins | 14.5 | 5.7 | 39.26% | 20.2 |
Steve Smith | 14.5 | 9.3 | 63.94% | 23.7 |
Anquan Boldin | 14.3 | 6.0 | 41.84% | 20.3 |
Sammy Watkins | 14.0 | 10.5 | 74.59% | 24.5 |
Brandin Cooks | 13.9 | 7.7 | 55.42% | 21.7 |
Mike Wallace | 13.6 | 4.5 | 32.70% | 18.1 |
Jordan Matthews | 13.6 | 9.9 | 72.82% | 23.5 |
Reggie Wayne | 13.2 | 6.5 | 49.60% | 19.7 |
Andrew Hawkins | 13.1 | 7.6 | 57.72% | 20.7 |
Brandon LaFell | 12.7 | 10.8 | 85.34% | 23.5 |
Eric Decker | 12.4 | 5.8 | 46.68% | 18.3 |
Larry Fitzgerald | 12.3 | 8.6 | 69.94% | 20.9 |
Andre Johnson | 12.2 | 5.0 | 40.92% | 17.2 |
Michael Crabtree | 11.8 | 7.2 | 61.01% | 19.0 |
Kendall Wright | 11.8 | 7.2 | 61.35% | 19.0 |
Allen Robinson | 11.7 | 5.2 | 44.16% | 16.8 |
James Jones | 11.6 | 6.1 | 53.04% | 17.7 |
Percy Harvin | 11.5 | 6.7 | 58.58% | 18.2 |
Keenan Allen | 11.5 | 6.8 | 59.25% | 18.3 |
Rueben Randle | 11.4 | 4.8 | 41.66% | 16.2 |
Malcom Floyd | 11.3 | 5.5 | 48.28% | 16.8 |
Vincent Jackson | 11.1 | 5.5 | 49.43% | 16.6 |
John Brown | 11.0 | 7.5 | 67.91% | 18.5 |
Torrey Smith | 10.8 | 7.4 | 69.21% | 18.2 |
Allen Hurns | 10.8 | 10.2 | 95.03% | 21.0 |
Pierre Garcon | 10.7 | 9.5 | 88.50% | 20.2 |
Terrance Williams | 10.6 | 7.3 | 69.15% | 17.9 |
Doug Baldwin | 10.5 | 6.3 | 60.22% | 16.7 |
Dwayne Bowe | 10.2 | 4.4 | 42.66% | 14.6 |
Jarvis Landry | 10.0 | 5.8 | 58.13% | 15.7 |
Eddie Royal | 10.0 | 8.7 | 86.94% | 18.6 |
Kenny Stills | 9.6 | 5.5 | 57.68% | 15.1 |
Michael Floyd | 9.6 | 7.5 | 78.05% | 17.0 |
Greg Jennings | 9.4 | 5.6 | 59.33% | 15.0 |
Andre Holmes | 9.3 | 9.3 | 99.58% | 18.5 |
Marques Colston | 9.3 | 4.7 | 51.28% | 14.0 |
Stevie Johnson | 9.1 | 5.8 | 63.55% | 14.8 |
Taylor Gabriel | 8.9 | 5.4 | 60.45% | 14.3 |
Kenny Britt | 8.8 | 6.8 | 77.05% | 15.7 |
Miles Austin | 8.8 | 4.6 | 51.93% | 13.3 |
Markus Wheaton | 8.6 | 5.6 | 65.84% | 14.2 |
Robert Woods | 8.5 | 6.5 | 76.14% | 15.0 |
Cordarrelle Patterson | 8.5 | 6.2 | 73.86% | 14.7 |
Tight Ends
Player | PPG AVG | StdDev | CV | Ceiling |
---|---|---|---|---|
Rob Gronkowski | 18.0 | 9.9 | 55.02% | 28.0 |
Jimmy Graham | 16.2 | 10.8 | 66.52% | 27.0 |
Julius Thomas | 15.5 | 10.6 | 68.45% | 26.0 |
Martellus Bennett | 14.4 | 7.2 | 49.79% | 21.6 |
Greg Olsen | 14.4 | 7.4 | 51.44% | 21.7 |
Antonio Gates | 14.0 | 10.0 | 71.83% | 24.0 |
Delanie Walker | 12.6 | 8.0 | 63.60% | 20.6 |
Larry Donnell | 12.1 | 8.6 | 71.32% | 20.7 |
Travis Kelce | 10.8 | 5.7 | 53.46% | 16.5 |
Dwayne Allen | 10.5 | 6.2 | 58.75% | 16.7 |
Jason Witten | 10.0 | 4.3 | 43.34% | 14.3 |
Owen Daniels | 9.8 | 6.1 | 62.36% | 15.8 |
Coby Fleener | 9.7 | 6.7 | 69.39% | 16.4 |
Heath Miller | 9.5 | 7.9 | 83.36% | 17.4 |
Mychal Rivera | 8.7 | 7.8 | 90.45% | 16.5 |
Charles Clay | 8.6 | 5.2 | 60.53% | 13.7 |
Jared Cook | 8.5 | 4.7 | 55.59% | 13.2 |
Zach Ertz | 8.4 | 5.0 | 59.89% | 13.4 |
Clay Harbor | 8.3 | 6.3 | 76.05% | 14.6 |
Niles Paul | 8.3 | 6.7 | 81.08% | 15.0 |
Jermaine Gresham | 7.9 | 4.9 | 62.05% | 12.8 |
Jordan Reed | 7.8 | 6.1 | 77.88% | 13.9 |
Jace Amaro | 7.5 | 6.5 | 86.51% | 14.0 |
Chase Ford | 6.8 | 6.3 | 92.67% | 13.1 |
Austin Seferian-Jenkins | 6.3 | 4.8 | 76.29% | 11.1 |
Scott Chandler | 6.3 | 5.1 | 81.90% | 11.4 |
Lance Kendricks | 6.2 | 4.1 | 66.20% | 10.3 |
Tim Wright | 6.0 | 7.5 | 124.62% | 13.5 |
Vernon Davis | 6.0 | 6.1 | 101.43% | 12.1 |
Andrew Quarless | 5.5 | 4.3 | 77.77% | 9.8 |
Anthony Fasano | 5.5 | 4.4 | 80.91% | 9.9 |
John Carlson | 5.4 | 2.0 | 37.15% | 7.5 |
Putting CV into Action
The most effective way to use this information is to group players together by PPG average and compare player CV. The player’s with the higher CV will have the higher upside, as illustrated by their calculated ceiling.
Let’s assume that we need to win out to make the playoffs and are facing the first place team in our league this week. We’re trying to decide between Torrey Smith and Allen Hurns as our WR3, two wide receivers that average 10.8 PPR FP per game and have similar Week 12 projections. The numbers suggest that as the underdog, we should embrace Hurns’ volatile week-to-week play because we need a high ceiling play to keep up with the league juggernaut.
For an even more dynamic use of CV, owners can look to their favorite weekly projections and compare the CV of players with close projections. In order to calculate a weekly ceiling simply substitute the weekly projection for AVG PPG in the CV formula:
Weekly Ceiling = Projected FP + (CV*Projected FP)
This even works across positions, such as when we are deciding between a running back or wide receiver for our flex spot. As mentioned in the intro, fantasy owners that are clear underdogs should embrace the highly volatile play, while favorites can usually stick to their steady top tier talent.