If you have read my articles, you know that Pro Football Reference is an incredible tool that I use to help me find most of my data. Their “Play Index” feature allows for some awesome comparables and really allows you to customize a search based on the specific criteria you are looking for.
I was curious about what would happen if I messed around on College Football Reference with their Play Index tool. One of my first instincts was to find which players were most likely to be fantasy RB1s in the NFL, simply based on their college production.
I dabbled with game stats and started with players who had 100+ rushing yards and 2+ receptions in the same game in college. The intention was to see how many RB1s hit that threshold knowing that most three-down backs are great in both the rushing and receiving game. I ended up finding some interesting results.
At first glance, I started to see lots of RB1s pop up near the top of the list. I noticed a lot more consistency when only including players who had achieved the feat at least five times in a season.
Here’s the list of all players to have five or more games in a single college season with 100 or more rushing yards and two or more receptions in the same game:
| Player | Year | School | Qualifying Games | Draft Round | RB1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Jackson | 2003 | Oregon State | 9 | 1st | Y |
| Miquale Lewis | 2008 | Ball State | 9 | N/A | N |
| DeAngelo Williams | 2003 | Memphis | 9 | 1st | Y |
| Jay Ajayi | 2014 | Boise State | 8 | 5th | N |
| Anthony Alridge | 2007 | Houston | 8 | N/A | N |
| Antonio Andrews | 2013 | Western Kentucky | 8 | N/A | N |
| Tevin Coleman | 2014 | Indiana | 8 | 3rd | N |
| Lance Dunbar | 2009 | North Texas | 8 | N/A | N |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 2015 | Ohio State | 8 | 1st | Y |
| Royce Freeman | 2015 | Oregon | 8 | 3rd | N |
| Quentin Griffin | 2002 | Oklahoma | 8 | 4th | N |
| Ronnie Hillman | 2011 | San Diego State | 8 | 3rd | N |
| I'Tavius Mathers | 2016 | Middle Tennessee State | 8 | N/A | N |
| Christian McCaffrey | 2015 | Stanford | 8 | 1st | Y |
| Christian McCaffrey | 2016 | Stanford | 8 | 1st | Y |
| Willis McGahee | 2002 | Miami (FL) | 8 | 1st | Y |
| Robbie Rouse | 2012 | Fresno State | 8 | N/A | N |
| Luke Staley | 2001 | Brigham Young | 8 | N/A | N |
| James White | 2013 | Wisconsin | 8 | 4th | Y |
| Antonio Andrews | 2012 | Western Kentucky | 7 | N/A | N |
| J.J. Arrington | 2004 | California | 7 | 2nd | N |
| Devontae Booker | 2015 | Utah | 7 | 4th | N |
| Brian Calhoun | 2005 | Wisconsin | 7 | 3rd | N |
| Ka'Deem Carey | 2012 | Arizona | 7 | 4th | N |
| Calvin Dawson | 2007 | Louisiana-Monroe | 7 | N/A | N |
| Lance Dunbar | 2010 | North Texas | 7 | N/A | N |
| Johnathan Franklin | 2012 | UCLA | 7 | 4th | N |
| Chuba Hubbard | 2019 | Oklahoma State | 7 | N/A | |
| Duke Johnson | 2014 | Miami (FL) | 7 | 3rd | N |
| Derrick Knight | 2002 | Boston College | 7 | N/A | N |
| Jeremy McNichols | 2016 | Boise State | 7 | 5th | N |
| Mewelde Moore | 2001 | Tulane | 7 | 4th | N |
| Branden Oliver | 2011 | Buffalo | 7 | N/A | N |
| Branden Oliver | 2013 | Buffalo | 7 | N/A | N |
| Chris Polk | 2011 | Washington | 7 | N/A | N |
| Bobby Rainey | 2011 | Western Kentucky | 7 | N/A | N |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 2009 | Oregon State | 7 | 5th | N |
| Dantrell Savage | 2007 | Oklahoma State | 7 | N/A | N |
| Jerry Seymour | 2004 | Central Michigan | 7 | N/A | N |
| Darius Walker | 2005 | Notre Dame | 7 | N/A | N |
| Jonathan Ward | 2019 | Central Michigan | 7 | N/A | |
| Kerwynn Williams | 2012 | Utah State | 7 | 7th | N |
| Ameer Abdullah | 2013 | Nebraska | 6 | 2nd | N |
| Cam Akers | 2019 | Florida State | 6 | N/A | |
| Leon Allen | 2014 | Western Kentucky | 6 | N/A | N |
| Alex Barnes | 2018 | Kansas State | 6 | N/A | N |
| Eno Benjamin | 2018 | Arizona State | 6 | N/A | |
| Giovani Bernard | 2011 | North Carolina | 6 | 2nd | N |
| Yvenson Bernard | 2005 | Oregon State | 6 | N/A | N |
| Devontae Booker | 2014 | Utah | 6 | 4th | N |
| Cornell Brockington | 2004 | Connecticut | 6 | N/A | N |
| Reggie Bush | 2005 | Southern California | 6 | 1st | Y |
| Ka'Deem Carey | 2013 | Arizona | 6 | 4th | N |
| Jawon Chisholm | 2012 | Akron | 6 | N/A | N |
| Dalvin Cook | 2016 | Florida State | 6 | 2nd | Y |
| Mike Davis | 2013 | South Carolina | 6 | 4th | N |
| Matt Dayes | 2016 | North Carolina State | 6 | N/A | N |
| J.K. Dobbins | 2019 | Ohio State | 6 | N/A | |
| Damion Fletcher | 2007 | Southern Mississippi | 6 | N/A | N |
| Matt Forte | 2007 | Tulane | 6 | 2nd | Y |
| William Green | 2001 | Boston College | 6 | 1st | N |
| Jerome Harrison | 2005 | Washington State | 6 | 5th | N |
| Darrell Henderson | 2018 | Memphis | 6 | 3rd | N |
| Noah Herron | 2004 | Northwestern | 6 | 7th | N |
| Kareem Hunt | 2016 | Toledo | 6 | 3rd | Y |
| Mark Ingram | 2009 | Alabama | 6 | 1st | Y |
| Justin Jackson | 2017 | Northwestern | 6 | 7th | N |
| Eugene Jarvis | 2007 | Kent State | 6 | N/A | N |
| Gartrell Johnson III | 2008 | Colorado State | 6 | N/A | N |
| Dion Lewis | 2009 | Pittsburgh | 6 | 5th | N |
| Luke Lippincott | 2007 | Nevada | 6 | N/A | N |
| Marshawn Lynch | 2006 | California | 6 | 1st | Y |
| Demarco McCleskey | 2002 | Cincinnati | 6 | N/A | N |
| Jeremy McNichols | 2015 | Boise State | 6 | 5th | N |
| Marcus Merriweather | 2002 | Ball State | 6 | N/A | N |
| Zack Moss | 2019 | Utah | 6 | N/A | |
| Isaiah Pead | 2011 | Cincinnati | 6 | 2nd | N |
| Chris Perry | 2003 | Michigan | 6 | 1st | N |
| Bobby Rainey | 2010 | Western Kentucky | 6 | N/A | N |
| Joseph Randle | 2012 | Oklahoma State | 6 | 5th | N |
| Tellis Redmon | 2000 | Minnesota | 6 | N/A | N |
| Trent Richardson | 2011 | Alabama | 6 | 1st | Y |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 2008 | Oregon State | 6 | 5th | N |
| Larry Rose III | 2015 | New Mexico State | 6 | N/A | N |
| Anthony Sherrell | 2003 | Eastern Michigan | 6 | N/A | N |
| Steve Slaton | 2006 | West Virginia | 6 | 3rd | Y |
| Ito Smith | 2016 | Southern Mississippi | 6 | 4th | N |
| Ito Smith | 2017 | Southern Mississippi | 6 | 4th | N |
| Jonathan Stewart | 2007 | Oregon | 6 | 1st | N |
| Rodney Stewart | 2010 | Colorado | 6 | N/A | N |
| Tyrell Sutton | 2005 | Northwestern | 6 | N/A | N |
| Jonathan Taylor | 2019 | Wisconsin | 6 | N/A | |
| Stepfan Taylor | 2012 | Stanford | 6 | 5th | N |
| Harvey Unga | 2007 | Brigham Young | 6 | N/A | N |
| Trey Watts | 2013 | Tulsa | 6 | N/A | N |
| Emmett White | 2000 | Utah State | 6 | N/A | N |
| Emmett White | 2001 | Utah State | 6 | N/A | N |
| Terrence Whitehead | 2004 | Oregon | 6 | N/A | N |
| DeAngelo Williams | 2004 | Memphis | 6 | 1st | Y |
| Willie Alderson | 2000 | Idaho | 5 | N/A | N |
| Chris Barclay | 2005 | Wake Forest | 5 | N/A | N |
| Saquon Barkley | 2017 | Penn State | 5 | 1st | Y |
| Bryce Beall | 2008 | Houston | 5 | N/A | N |
| Eno Benjamin | 2019 | Arizona State | 5 | N/A | |
| Cedric Benson | 2004 | Texas | 5 | 1st | N |
| Giovani Bernard | 2012 | North Carolina | 5 | 2nd | N |
| Yvenson Bernard | 2007 | Oregon State | 5 | N/A | N |
| Curtis Brown | 2005 | Brigham Young | 5 | N/A | N |
| Donald Buckram | 2009 | Texas-El Paso | 5 | N/A | N |
| Michael Bush | 2005 | Louisville | 5 | 4th | N |
| Dalvin Cook | 2014 | Florida State | 5 | 2nd | Y |
| Dalyn Dawkins | 2017 | Colorado State | 5 | N/A | N |
| J.K. Dobbins | 2017 | Ohio State | 5 | N/A | |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 2019 | Louisiana State | 5 | N/A | |
| Tyler Ervin | 2015 | San Jose State | 5 | 4th | N |
| Ciatrick Fason | 2004 | Florida | 5 | 4th | N |
| David Fluellen | 2013 | Toledo | 5 | N/A | N |
| Brock Forsey | 2002 | Boise State | 5 | 6th | N |
| Kenny Gainwell | 2019 | Memphis | 5 | N/A | |
| Quinton Ganther | 2005 | Utah | 5 | 7th | N |
| Zach Gerstner | 2003 | Idaho | 5 | N/A | N |
| Melvin Gordon | 2014 | Wisconsin | 5 | 1st | Y |
| Chad Hall | 2007 | Air Force | 5 | 7th | N |
| Leonard Henry | 2001 | East Carolina | 5 | N/A | N |
| Justice Hill | 2017 | Oklahoma State | 5 | 4th | N |
| Nyheim Hines | 2017 | North Carolina State | 5 | 4th | N |
| Kerryon Johnson | 2017 | Auburn | 5 | 2nd | N |
| Larry Johnson | 2002 | Penn State | 5 | 1st | Y |
| Joshua Kelley | 2018 | UCLA | 5 | N/A | |
| Dennis Kennedy | 2008 | Akron | 5 | N/A | N |
| Keylon Kincade | 2002 | Southern Methodist | 5 | N/A | N |
| Zach Line | 2011 | Southern Methodist | 5 | N/A | N |
| Zach Line | 2012 | Southern Methodist | 5 | N/A | N |
| Rafael Little | 2007 | Kentucky | 5 | N/A | N |
| Derrick Locke | 2010 | Kentucky | 5 | N/A | N |
| Marlon Lucky | 2007 | Nebraska | 5 | N/A | N |
| Torrance Marable | 2019 | Coastal Carolina | 5 | N/A | |
| Dexter McCluster | 2009 | Mississippi | 5 | 2nd | N |
| LeSean McCoy | 2008 | Pittsburgh | 5 | 2nd | Y |
| Darren McFadden | 2007 | Arkansas | 5 | 1st | Y |
| Kalvin McRae | 2006 | Ohio | 5 | 5th | N |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 2007 | Illinois | 5 | 1st | Y |
| Dicenzo Miller | 2000 | Mississippi State | 5 | N/A | N |
| Dontrell Moore | 2005 | New Mexico | 5 | N/A | N |
| Kevin Parks | 2013 | Virginia | 5 | N/A | N |
| Rashaad Penny | 2017 | San Diego State | 5 | 1st | N |
| Artose Pinner | 2002 | Kentucky | 5 | 4th | N |
| Chris Polk | 2009 | Washington | 5 | N/A | N |
| Bilal Powell | 2010 | Louisville | 5 | 4th | N |
| Donnel Pumphrey | 2015 | San Diego State | 5 | 4th | N |
| Kedrick Rhodes | 2011 | Florida International | 5 | N/A | N |
| Ray Rice | 2007 | Rutgers | 5 | 2nd | Y |
| Demario Richard | 2015 | Arizona State | 5 | N/A | N |
| Javon Ringer | 2007 | Michigan State | 5 | 5th | N |
| Adam Robinson | 2010 | Iowa | 5 | N/A | N |
| Cory Ross | 2004 | Nebraska | 5 | N/A | N |
| Robbie Rouse | 2011 | Fresno State | 5 | N/A | N |
| Kevin Smith | 2007 | Central Florida | 5 | 3rd | N |
| Michael Smith | 2008 | Arkansas | 5 | N/A | N |
| Curtis Steele | 2009 | Memphis | 5 | N/A | N |
| Adonis Thomas | 2011 | Toledo | 5 | N/A | N |
| Zurlon Tipton | 2012 | Central Michigan | 5 | N/A | N |
| Michael Turner | 2003 | Northern Illinois | 5 | 5th | Y |
| Akrum Wadley | 2016 | Iowa | 5 | N/A | N |
| Anthony Wales | 2016 | Western Kentucky | 5 | N/A | N |
| Darius Walker | 2006 | Notre Dame | 5 | N/A | N |
| Marteze Waller | 2014 | Fresno State | 5 | N/A | N |
| Michael Warren II | 2018 | Cincinnati | 5 | N/A | N |
| Marcus Whalen | 2002 | Brigham Young | 5 | N/A | N |
| Pooka Williams | 2019 | Kansas | 5 | N/A | |
| Garrett Wolfe | 2005 | Northern Illinois | 5 | 3rd | N |
| Albert Young | 2005 | Iowa | 5 | N/A | N |
At first glance, we see that 22 different players hit this threshold in college and became an RB1 since 2000.
If we take out duplicate player seasons we get left with 150 unique college players to hit that number.
22 of 150 players who had at least five games in a season in college with 100+ rushing yards and 2+ receptions became an RB1 in the NFL (15%).
Knowing that a two-year or less sample size is likely hard to judge if a player is really an RB1, what happens if we exclude the 2018-2020 RB classes or players who are still in college?
We get 21 of 125 players who had at least five games in a season in college with 100+ rushing yards and 2+ receptions became an RB1 in the NFL (17%).
How are these odds when we compare it to every NFL player?
There have been 88 different RBs to have an RB1 season since 2001 out of 684 RBs total running backs to see five or more rushing attempts in a season (13%).
Simply knowing if a player hit those marks in college, we can get a ~30% better odds at hitting an RB1 season.
Knowing that it’s totally possible that some of these college RBs didn’t even take a snap in the NFL, let’s start to filter this down even more and take out some of the noise.
Accounting for Draft Capital
What happens now when we account for draft capital? Let’s include only players drafted in the first three rounds.
| Player | Year | School | Qualifying Games | Draft Round | RB1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 2016 | Stanford | 8 | 1st | Y |
| Kareem Hunt | 2016 | Toledo | 6 | 3rd | Y |
| Dalvin Cook | 2016 | Florida State | 6 | 2nd | Y |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 2015 | Ohio State | 8 | 1st | Y |
| Christian McCaffrey | 2015 | Stanford | 8 | 1st | Y |
| Tevin Coleman | 2014 | Indiana | 8 | 3rd | N |
| Duke Johnson | 2014 | Miami (FL) | 7 | 3rd | N |
| Melvin Gordon | 2014 | Wisconsin | 5 | 1st | Y |
| Dalvin Cook | 2014 | Florida State | 5 | 2nd | Y |
| Ameer Abdullah | 2013 | Nebraska | 6 | 2nd | N |
| Giovani Bernard | 2012 | North Carolina | 5 | 2nd | N |
| Ronnie Hillman | 2011 | San Diego State | 8 | 3rd | N |
| Trent Richardson | 2011 | Alabama | 6 | 1st | Y |
| Isaiah Pead | 2011 | Cincinnati | 6 | 2nd | N |
| Giovani Bernard | 2011 | North Carolina | 6 | 2nd | N |
| Mark Ingram | 2009 | Alabama | 6 | 1st | Y |
| Dexter McCluster | 2009 | Mississippi | 5 | 2nd | N |
| LeSean McCoy | 2008 | Pittsburgh | 5 | 2nd | Y |
| Matt Forte | 2007 | Tulane | 6 | 2nd | Y |
| Jonathan Stewart | 2007 | Oregon | 6 | 1st | N |
| Ray Rice | 2007 | Rutgers | 5 | 2nd | Y |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 2007 | Illinois | 5 | 1st | Y |
| Kevin Smith | 2007 | Central Florida | 5 | 3rd | N |
| Darren McFadden | 2007 | Arkansas | 5 | 1st | Y |
| Steve Slaton | 2006 | West Virginia | 6 | 3rd | Y |
| Marshawn Lynch | 2006 | California | 6 | 1st | Y |
| Brian Calhoun | 2005 | Wisconsin | 7 | 3rd | N |
| Reggie Bush | 2005 | Southern California | 6 | 1st | Y |
| Garrett Wolfe | 2005 | Northern Illinois | 5 | 3rd | N |
| J.J. Arrington | 2004 | California | 7 | 2nd | N |
| DeAngelo Williams | 2004 | Memphis | 6 | 1st | Y |
| Cedric Benson | 2004 | Texas | 5 | 1st | N |
| Steven Jackson | 2003 | Oregon State | 9 | 1st | Y |
| DeAngelo Williams | 2003 | Memphis | 9 | 1st | Y |
| Chris Perry | 2003 | Michigan | 6 | 1st | N |
| Willis McGahee | 2002 | Miami (FL) | 8 | 1st | Y |
| Larry Johnson | 2002 | Penn State | 5 | 1st | Y |
| William Green | 2001 | Boston College | 6 | 1st | N |
Since their sample size is small, we’re only including running backs who played at least three NFL seasons.
With the remaining players, 19 of the 34 running backs hit at least one RB1 season (56%)!
When we compare that to all RBs drafted in the top three rounds in which 30% of all RBs drafted in that range become a RB1, this exercise almost doubles our chances of hitting an RB1 season!
When we change the definition of an RB1 season from 230+ fantasy points to only 200+ fantasy points, we see a much higher success rate. 24 of the 34 players had at least one season of 200+ fantasy points. (71%). Tevin Coleman is worthy of a mention here – he just narrowly missed the threshold as he had two seasons within 10 points of hitting 200 PPR points.
What happens when we narrow it down even further and add a variable like weight?
| Player | Year | School | Qualifying Games | Draft Round | RB1 | 200+ PPR Season | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Jackson | 2003 | Oregon State | 9 | 1st | Y | Y | 240 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 2007 | Oregon | 6 | 1st | N | Y | 240 |
| Willis McGahee | 2002 | Miami (FL) | 8 | 1st | Y | Y | 235 |
| Larry Johnson | 2002 | Penn State | 5 | 1st | Y | Y | 235 |
| Trent Richardson | 2011 | Alabama | 6 | 1st | Y | Y | 228 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 2015 | Ohio State | 8 | 1st | Y | Y | 228 |
| Cedric Benson | 2004 | Texas | 5 | 1st | N | Y | 227 |
| Chris Perry | 2003 | Michigan | 6 | 1st | N | N | 224 |
| Matt Forte | 2007 | Tulane | 6 | 2nd | Y | Y | 221 |
| Kareem Hunt | 2016 | Toledo | 6 | 3rd | Y | Y | 216 |
| Melvin Gordon | 2014 | Wisconsin | 5 | 1st | Y | Y | 215 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 2006 | California | 6 | 1st | Y | Y | 215 |
| Mark Ingram | 2009 | Alabama | 6 | 1st | Y | Y | 215 |
| William Green | 2001 | Boston College | 6 | 1st | N | N | 214 |
| J.J. Arrington | 2004 | California | 7 | 2nd | N | N | 212 |
| Tevin Coleman | 2014 | Indiana | 8 | 3rd | N | N | 210 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 2007 | Illinois | 5 | 1st | Y | Y | 210 |
| LeSean McCoy | 2008 | Pittsburgh | 5 | 2nd | Y | Y | 210 |
| Kevin Smith | 2007 | Central Florida | 5 | 3rd | N | Y | 210 |
| Duke Johnson | 2014 | Miami (FL) | 7 | 3rd | N | Y | 210 |
| Darren McFadden | 2007 | Arkansas | 5 | 1st | Y | Y | 210 |
| Dalvin Cook | 2016 | Florida State | 6 | 2nd | Y | Y | 210 |
| Dalvin Cook | 2014 | Florida State | 5 | 2nd | Y | Y | 210 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 2003 | Memphis | 9 | 1st | Y | Y | 207 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 2004 | Memphis | 6 | 1st | Y | Y | 207 |
| Reggie Bush | 2005 | Southern California | 6 | 1st | Y | Y | 205 |
| Giovani Bernard | 2011 | North Carolina | 6 | 2nd | N | Y | 205 |
| Giovani Bernard | 2012 | North Carolina | 5 | 2nd | N | Y | 205 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 2016 | Stanford | 8 | 1st | Y | Y | 205 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 2015 | Stanford | 8 | 1st | Y | Y | 205 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 2013 | Nebraska | 6 | 2nd | N | N | 203 |
| Brian Calhoun | 2005 | Wisconsin | 7 | 3rd | N | N | 202 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 2011 | San Diego State | 8 | 3rd | N | N | 200 |
| Isaiah Pead | 2011 | Cincinnati | 6 | 2nd | N | N | 197 |
| Steve Slaton | 2006 | West Virginia | 6 | 3rd | Y | Y | 195 |
| Ray Rice | 2007 | Rutgers | 5 | 2nd | Y | Y | 195 |
| Garrett Wolfe | 2005 | Northern Illinois | 5 | 3rd | N | N | 171 |
| Dexter McCluster | 2009 | Mississippi | 5 | 2nd | N | N | 165 |
22 of the 26 players who weighed 205 or more lbs. had at least one season over 200+ fantasy points (85%)!
15 of those 26 players went on to have multiple seasons with 200+ fantasy points (58%).
It’s important to note that five separate players came within 15 fantasy points of having multiple seasons of 200+ fantasy points.
If we change the threshold to multiple seasons of 185+ PPR points we get a much better hit rate as 20 of the 26 players were able to have multiple seasons above 185 PPR points (77%).
Note that Dalvin Cook is included as a miss in this threshold and seems likely to become a hit.
We obviously knew that draft capital is important for RBs as 62 of 143 RBs drafted in the first three rounds since 2001 had at least one season of 200+ PPR points (43%).
All players over 205 lbs. and had top-three round draft capital, 56 of 123 RBs had at least one season of 200+ PPR points (46%).
Now when we add RBs who had at least 5 games in a college season with 100+ rushing yards and 2+ receptions, weighed 205 or more lbs., and had top-three round draft capital, we get 22 of the 26 players who have at least one season of 200+ PPR points (85%).
Who Fits the Criteria?
Now let’s look at the running backs who fit this criterion in the 2018 and 2019 RB classes:
| Player | Year | School | Qualifying Games | Draft Round | RB1 | 200+ PPR Season | Weight | Multiple 200+ PPR seasons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Royce Freeman | 2015 | Oregon | 8 | 3rd | N | N | 238 | N |
| Saquon Barkley | 2017 | Penn State | 5 | 1st | Y | Y | 233 | Y |
| Rashaad Penny | 2017 | San Diego State | 5 | 1st | N | N | 220 | N |
| Kerryon Johnson | 2017 | Auburn | 5 | 2nd | N | N | 211 | N |
| Darrell Henderson | 2018 | Memphis | 6 | 3rd | N | N | 208 | N |
Saquon Barkley
Through two seasons Saquon has already hit, as he has finished as an RB1 in both of the seasons in which he has played. He remains one of the best running backs in the game.
Royce Freeman
Freeman entered the NFL as an excellent prospect but was unfortunately paired with electric rookie Phillip Lindsay. With Lindsay taking the league by storm as a rookie, Freeman took a backseat. Last year we saw Freeman’s role increase in the passing game as he caught 43 receptions.
Clearly, Freeman’s value takes a hit with Melvin Gordon signing with Denver, but this should make Freeman super cheap in dynasty leagues. If we look at all RBs who weighed over 205 lbs. and rushed for over 400 yards and caught 40 balls within their 1st two seasons of their career, we see Royce Freeman’s name amongst a plethora of RB1s and superstar RBs.
Royce Freeman’s stock took a hit with Melvin Gordon signing, but that should make him a cheap buy in leagues.
Here are all the players in which a RB over 205 lbs had 400+ rush yards and 40+ receptions in their first two seasons in the league.
Royce is amongst these many RB1s. pic.twitter.com/lebPy5weed
— Dalton Kates (@Dalton_Kates) March 22, 2020
Rashaad Penny
Penny was another great running back prospect who checked nearly all of the boxes in terms of athleticism, college production, and first-round draft capital. Frustratingly Penny was paired with Chris Carson, who has turned out to be an excellent player in his own right.
From an efficiency standpoint, here are some running backs that Penny comps to after two seasons in the league.
Clearly his production lacks behind everybody, but he was also the highest-drafted running back on the list. Penny is currently recovering from an ACL injury in which could hinder the start of his season next year, but Penny remains an intriguing RB that we should be looking to acquire cheap in dynasty leagues.
His 13th round ADP makes his upside worth the cost of acquisition at this point and even if he doesn’t come to full form in Year 3, he could potentially be a Year 4 breakout. We’re seen Year 4 breakouts in the past from highly drafted RBs like Derrick Henry and Mark Ingram.
Kerryon Johnson
Kerryon’s first two years in the league are complete opposites. As a rookie, he was wildly efficient in the rushing game and caught a lot of balls in his limited time playing before his season ended due to injury.
Last year his rushing efficiency went down to way below league average, but his receiving efficiency jumped in limited opportunities. Obviously, injuries have played a major factor in Kerryon’s career so far as he has yet to play more than 10 games in a season, but what he has done through his first two seasons in the league at his young age shouldn’t be discounted.
Kerryon has some very enticing comparables after two years in the league. He is the least productive in both the rushing and passing game among this list, but from an efficiency standpoint, he compares closest to Christian McCaffrey and LeSean McCoy.
Kerryon’s young age of only 23 at the start of next season makes him an attractive dynasty target as his upside is tremendous.
While the dynasty community is still holding onto the promise of his upside, his ADP is reasonable given his injury history and the chance that Detroit adds more competition during the rest of free agency or in the draft.
Darrell Henderson
Henderson didn’t do much as a rookie as he saw both Malcolm Brown and Todd Gurley take snaps ahead of him. His efficiency numbers weren’t as promising as we would like, but it was a small sample size. With Gurley gone, Henderson should step into a role in which he will be receiving many more touches.
While his dynasty ADP hasn’t corrected yet for the release of Gurley, we should soon see him become a top 100 dynasty asset and there are plenty of reasons why you should buy him.
2020 Class
| Player | Year | School | Qualifying Games | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 2019 | Wisconsin | 6 | 226 |
| Michael Warren II | 2018 | Cincinnati | 5 | 224 |
| Zack Moss | 2019 | Utah | 6 | 223 |
| Cam Akers | 2019 | Florida State | 6 | 217 |
| Joshua Kelley | 2018 | UCLA | 5 | 212 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 2019 | Ohio State | 6 | 209 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 2017 | Ohio State | 5 | 209 |
| Eno Benjamin | 2018 | Arizona State | 6 | 207 |
| Eno Benjamin | 2019 | Arizona State | 5 | 207 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 2019 | Louisiana State | 5 | 207 |
| Jonathan Ward | 2019 | Central Michigan | 7 | 206 |
| Dalyn Dawkins | 2017 | Colorado State | 5 | 183 |
As we can see, this class has lots of playmakers at the running back position. If we sort by weight, we see that 9/10 fit the threshold for weight. Out of those nine, it seems like Jonathan Taylor, J.K. Dobbins, and Cam Akers are near locks to be drafted inside the top 3 rounds. Guys like Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Zack Moss, and Eno Benjamin seem like probable day two picks.
This just cements that not only are Taylor, Dobbins, and Akers premier talents, but one could argue that these are the top three backs in this draft class. Keep these players in mind during the NFL draft as their likelihood to become an RB1 skyrockets if they get drafted within the first three rounds.
Note that both Eno Benjamin and J.K. Dobbins hit the threshold two times. Only four other players were able to do this and all four had multiple seasons over 185 PPR points. Benjamin has been sliding under the radar due to these top backs, but he certainly presents a profile that can become an RB1. He should become a nice value in rookie drafts if you’re looking for an RB to draft in the 2nd round.
This is a fun and unique way to look at RB prospects from a statistical perspective. Clearly, the data shows that these players have a much higher probability of success in the NFL if they hit these thresholds. This obviously doesn’t mean that players who don’t hit these marks won’t become successful, but rather that we should focus our attention and target these players in rookie drafts granted that they receive the necessary draft capital we are targeting.
Big shoutout to College Football Reference for the data that makes this all possible.
If you aren’t already, make sure to follow me on twitter at @DaltonGuruFF where you won’t want to miss daily content about these upcoming prospects and much more. Thanks for reading and I hope this helps with your process in your rookie drafts!
This is spectacular.