What a difference a year makes. Coming off of a stellar rookie season that earned him a top-2 fantasy finish at running back, Doug Martin was being discussed in many circles as the number one 2013 redraft pick. But after an ineffective, injury-shortened sophomore campaign that ruined many a fantasy team, where do we project Doug Martin for 2014? His talent, situation, and opportunity point to a bounce-back season, but with Jeff Tedford now running the offense, we need to take a closer look at his PPR ceiling.

Jeff Tedford and his Running Back’s Receiving Statistics

Before assuming control of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense this offseason, Jeff Tedford was the coach at Cal with a decent amount of success. He produced a number of NFL-caliber running backs such as Marshawn Lynch, Justin Forsett, Jahvid Best, and Shane Vereen. To get an idea of how he uses his running backs in the passing game (a must for a high PPR ceiling), I looked at the receiving stats of every Tedford running back with 100 carries in a season from 2004-2012. Lets take a look:

2004J.J. Arrington211215.8300
2005Marshawn Lynch151258.3250
2005Justin Forsett7689.7220
2006Marshawn Lynch343289.6284
2006Justin Forsett121169.7251
2007Justin Forsett222029.2490
2008Jahvid Best272469.1421
2008Shane Vereen272218.2591
2009Shane Vereen252449.8212
2009Jahvid Best222139.7514
2010Shane Vereen222099.5313
2011Isi Sofele6335.5220
2012C.J. Anderson1516410.9301
2012Isi Sofele7679.6170

Yikes- an average of under 20 receptions per season, with a high of only 34? Not exactly promising for Doug Martin’s projection under Jeff Tedford. These numbers are especially alarming considering the passing game chops that Forsett, Best, and Vereen have shown in the NFL. But before we jump to conclusions, let’s dive deeper into the statistics.

Running Backs’ “Reception Share” under Jeff Tedford

One thing that the data above does not take into account is the run-heavy offense Tedford perennially ran during his tenure at Cal- a run-heavier offense means less pass attempts, less pass attempts mean less chances for receptions. Considering the mediocre stable of quarterbacks that Tedford had at his disposal (save Aaron Rodgers), we cannot hold this against him. To remedy this problem I took a look at the “reception share” of Tedford’s running backs, or what percentage of the team’s receptions his running backs got:

YearPlayerRecRec Share
2004J.J. Arrington2110%
2005Marshawn Lynch159%
2005Justin Forsett74%
2006Marshawn Lynch3414%
2006Justin Forsett125%
2007Justin Forsett228%
2008Jahvid Best2713%
2008Shane Vereen2713%
2009Shane Vereen2512%
2009Jahvid Best2210%
2010Shane Vereen2212%
2011Isi Sofele62%
2012C.J. Anderson157%
2012Isi Sofele73%

Just as alarming as the first table. Of the 14 qualifying RBs, half of them saw under 10% of their team’s total receptions, with a high of only 14%. But it’s possible that just seems low- maybe it is the same in the NFL. To get a better idea, we must ask ourselves: what is the usual reception share for valuable PPR running backs?

“Reception Share” of NFL Running Backs

To answer the previous question, let’s take a look at the top 20 receiving running backs in 2013 in terms of receptions. Listed to the right of their 2013 receptions is their “reception share”- or the percent of their team’s total receptions:

PlayerRecRec Share
Pierre Thomas7717%
Danny Woodhead7620%
Matt Forte7420%
Darren Sproles7116%
Jamaal Charles7021%
Knowshon Moreno6013%
Ray Rice5816%
Giovani Bernard5615%
Reggie Bush5415%
Joique Bell5314%
DeMarco Murray5314%
LeSean McCoy5217%
Jacquizz Rodgers5212%
Chris Ogbonnaya4813%
Fred Jackson4716%
Shane Vereen4712%
Le'Veon Bell4512%
Maurice Jones-Drew4312%
Chris Johnson4213%
Andre Ellington3911%

We can safely say that to be a top-tier PPR back in fantasy, you must get more than Tedford’s 9% average of running backs’ “reception share”. In fact, half of Tedford’s running backs didn’t even approach the low “reception share” for 2013’s top 20 receiving backs even though they included NFL-proven pass catchers. The jump from Tedford’s 9% average “reception share” to the top 20 2013 15% average is a 66% increase, while 20th-ranked Andre Ellington’s 39 receptions is five more than the 2004-2012 high of 34 from any of Tedford’s Cal running backs.

In Conclusion- What does this mean for 2014?

Clearly, it is quite worrisome how little Jeff Tedford used his excellent receiving running backs in the passing game during his tenure at Cal. Even the “high” season of 34 catches for 14% of the team’s receptions could be considered a fluke, considering it was accomplished by two-down NFL back Marshawn Lynch. Even if it was not a fluke, this poses an interesting question: why would Tedford use Lynch in the passing game when backs proven superior to him at pass-catching in the NFL such as Forsett, Best and Vereen were annually underutilized? This could possibly point to a troubling trend in Tedford’s evaluation of his players’ talents and strengths.

On the flip side of the coin, the past does not always predict the future. It is far from a certainty that Tedford will employ the exact same college offensive scheme in the NFL. As a proven coach, he will likely study the game tape and see that Martin excelled in all aspects of the passing game during his rookie year. Why not incorporate Martin more than his previous running backs? It’s possible this entire argument will be proven wrong come September 2014. But Tedford’s trend in running back passing-game utilization points to Doug Martin being a risky first-round PPR pick with a limited ceiling in this summer’s fantasy drafts.