Apex Insider Blog

As fantasy owners, we’re always attempting to predict each player’s improvement. But just as important as prognosticating improvement is the ability to predict decline – especially in dynasty leagues. One of the most important variables for predictability is age. While there are outliers who can produce at an impressively old age (by NFL standards), most players at the same position tend to have similar career arcs. In this article, we’ll determine the peak age for an NFL wide receiver.

Defining A Peak Season

To begin, we must define a peak season for an NFL wide receiver. If a wide receiver plays all 16 games and averages just over 14 PPR points per game, he will score 225 PPR fantasy points for the season. In 2020, 19 wide receivers scored at least 225 PPR fantasy points – or high-end WR2 production.

Our first peak season will include all wide receivers since 2000 who finished with at least 225 PPR fantasy points. This gives us a sample size of 342 seasons. The list below includes all individual wide receiver seasons to meet the criteria and was generated by Pro-Football-Reference.com.

The average age for this group is 27.26 years old. Below is a distribution graph of the ages of qualifying WRs when they hit a peak season.

Previously, the youngest player to accomplish a peak season was Mike Evans in 2016 at 21 years old. Justin Jefferson matched Evans this season by scoring 270.2 fantasy points as a 21-year-old rookie. Jefferson’s production at such a young age makes him extremely likely to appear on this list again many times, and is a player that all fantasy owners should recognize as one of the league’s best dynasty assets.

Most would call Jerry Rice the greatest of all time and he didn’t disappoint at the end of his career, as the only player to meet the criteria over the age of 35. Rice incredibly accomplished the feat at 39 and 40 years old but would have also met the criteria at 32, 33, 34, and 36 had we included seasons prior to 2000. Rice falls directly in the anomaly category – it’s unfair to expect the same production from other wide receivers.

The peak appears to land at ages 23 to 30, as 79.2 percent of the individual seasons fall within this range. A more magnified peak is in the 25 to 29 range, where 57 percent of peak seasons reside. Both of those marks rose again in 2020, in addition to a decrease of the average age. As I do these studies annually, the average age becomes younger each season.

There is a steady decline that takes place after the age 29 season and continues with each passing year. Just 7 percent of the peak seasons happen after the age 32 season and a minuscule 2.05 percent of the seasons taking place after age 34.

Let’s see if the peak or drop-off changes if we raise the floor for a peak season.

Re-Defining A Peak Season

If we raise the minimum fantasy points scored for a peak season to 258 (roughly top-10 production) then the sample size drops to 194 seasons. Nine wide receivers in 2020 scored at least 258 PPR fantasy points. Since 2000, an average of 9.7 receivers make this list per season.

The full list of players to qualify is included below.

The average age ever so slightly drops by 0.08 years to 27.18. Below is a distribution graph of the ages.

With the higher parameter, no player over 35 has accomplished a peak season. The former peak range from ages 23 to 30 jumps to include 81.4 percent of the seasons, while 59.8 percent fall within the 25 to 29 age range.

What can we learn from re-defining the peak? If we’re looking for higher-end seasons, it’s helpful to learn from the characteristics of the players who have accomplished the feat.

Raising The Qualifier Again

If we raise the qualifying fantasy points scored for a peak season to 285 (on average, 4.75 receivers qualify for this list each season) then the sample size drops to 95 seasons. Out of wide receivers, only Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, and DeAndre Hopkins scored over 285 PPR fantasy points this past season. Again, the players are listed below.

The average age drops again by 0.05 years to 27.13. Below is a distribution graph of the qualifiers.

The two 35-year-old seasons no longer qualify – the oldest receivers to qualify since 2000 were 34: all-time greats Terrell Owens and Marvin Harrison. Note that since 2009, the oldest receiver to qualify is 31 years old – the most recent being Jordy Nelson in 2016.

The percentage of players under 30 rises to 80 percent. As we continue to raise the PPR points threshold, the age of the players continues to drop. Let’s see if it continues if we raise the requirement one more time.

Raising The Qualifier One Last Time

If we raise the qualifying fantasy points scored for a peak season to 299 PPR fantasy points, the sample size drops to 65 seasons. These are best of the best receiver seasons – only 3.25 receivers qualify per year. Here are the studs who qualified:

The average age drops yet again by 0.05 years to 27.08. Below is a distribution graph of the new qualifiers.

An incredible 84.6 percent of the seasons land within ages 23 to 30. 63.08 percent of the seasons fall between between 25 and 29 years old.

Comparison of Thresholds

We can learn by comparing the results at each different threshold.

With each increase in PPR points, the average age dropped. In addition, the percentage of qualifiers under 30 years old rose. It’s clear that peak seasons are less likely to take place after turning 30. For most receivers, the wheels start falling off shortly thereafter.

When playing in dynasty leagues, it’s worth remembering Bill Belichick’s mantra: rather trade a player too early than too late.