As fantasy owners, we’re always attempting to predict each player’s improvement. But just as important as prognosticating improvement is the ability to predict decline – especially in dynasty leagues. One of the most important variables for predictability is age. While there are outliers who can produce at an impressively old age (by NFL standards), most players at the same position tend to have similar career arcs. In this article, we’ll determine the peak age for an NFL wide receiver.

Estimated Reading Time: 7 minutes

TL;DR:

  • This article explores at which ages NFL wide receivers have their most productive seasons.
  • For 225 PPR fantasy points per year (roughly top-24 production), the average age was 27 with nearly 80% of peak seasons falling within the age range of 23-30.
  • As the thresholds are raised, the average age becomes younger with peak WR seasons over the age of 30 becoming less and less frequent.
  • For elite top-three WR production, the average age was 26, and nearly 62% of qualifiers were between the ages of 25-29. However, the position continues to trend younger.

Defining A Peak Season

To begin, we must define a peak season for an NFL wide receiver. If a wide receiver plays all 16 games and averages just over 14 PPR points per game, he will score 225 PPR fantasy points for the season. That remains true for historical seasons – but now that there is a 17-game season, a player must average 13.2 fantasy points per game if playing the entire season to make the list.

Our first peak season will include all wide receivers since 2000 who finished with at least 225 PPR fantasy points. This gives us a sample size of 380 seasons. The list below includes all individual wide receiver seasons to meet the criteria and was generated by Pro-Football-Reference.com.

PlayerSeasonAgeTmGPPRRecYdsTD
Cooper Kupp202128LAR17439.5145194716
Antonio Brown201527PIT16388.2136183410
Antonio Brown201426PIT16386.9129169813
Randy Moss200730NWE16385.398149323
Marvin Harrison200230IND16384.2143172211
Randy Moss200326MIN16376111163217
Julio Jones201526ATL16375.113618718
Michael Thomas201926NOR16374.614917259
Justin Jefferson202223MIN17368.712818098
Calvin Johnson201126DET16359.296168116
Torry Holt200327STL16359.1117169612
Davante Adams202028GNB14358.4115137418
Marvin Harrison200129IND16351.7109152415
Tyreek Hill202228MIA17347.211917107
Davante Adams202129GNB16344.3123155311
Calvin Johnson201227DET16342.412219645
Demaryius Thomas201427DEN16340.9111161911
Brandon Marshall201531NYJ16339.2109150214
Deebo Samuel202125SFO163397714056
Steve Smith Sr.200526CAR16337.8103156312
Hines Ward200226PIT16337.1112132912
Wes Welker201130NWE16335.912215699
Davante Adams202230LVR17335.5100151614
Brandon Marshall201228CHI16334.6118150811
Tyreek Hill201824KAN1633487147912
DeAndre Hopkins201826HOU16333.5115157211
Terrell Owens200128SFO16332.393141216
DeAndre Hopkins201523HOU16331.1111152111
Justin Jefferson202122MIN17330.4108161610
Davante Adams201826GNB15329.6111138613
Muhsin Muhammad200431CAR1632993140516
Tyreek Hill202026KAN15328.987127615
Stefon Diggs202027BUF16328.612715358
Jordy Nelson201429GNB16327.998151913
Marvin Harrison200028IND16327.3102141314
Julio Jones201829ATL16325.911316778
Antonio Brown201830PIT15323.7104129715
Rod Smith200030DEN16322.110016028
Terrell Owens200229SFO14321.9100130013
Terrell Owens200027SFO14321.297145113
Andre Johnson200827HOU16320.511515758
Odell Beckham Jr.201523NYG15319.396145013
Demaryius Thomas201326DEN1631992143014
Rod Smith200131DEN15318113134311
Stefon Diggs202229BUF16316.6108142911
Roddy White201029ATL16316.2115138910
Dez Bryant201426DAL1631688132016
Michael Thomas201825NOR16315.512514059
Antonio Brown201325PIT16314.911014998
Andre Johnson200928HOU16314.910115699
Josh Gordon201322CLE14314.48716469
Randy Moss200023MIN16313.277143715
Larry Fitzgerald200825ARI16311.196143112
Antonio Brown201729PIT14310.310115339
DeAndre Hopkins201725HOU15309.896137813
Reggie Wayne200729IND16309.4104151010
Larry Fitzgerald200522ARI16308103140910
Adam Thielen201828MIN16307.311313739
Antonio Brown201628PIT15307.3106128412
David Boston200123ARI16307.39815988
Terrell Owens200734DAL1530781135515
A.J. Green201325CIN16306.698142611
Brandon Marshall201329CHI16305.5100129512
Jordy Nelson201631GNB16304.797125714
Ja'Marr Chase202121CIN17304.681145513
Mike Evans201623TAM16304.196132112
Allen Robinson201522JAX1630480140014
Calvin Johnson201328DET14303.284149212
Joe Horn200432NOR16301.994139911
Emmanuel Sanders201427DEN16301.810114049
CeeDee Lamb202223DAL17301.610713599
Marvin Harrison200634IND16301.695136612
Braylon Edwards200724CLE16300.980128916
A.J. Green201224CIN16299.897135011
Dez Bryant201224DAL16299.792138212
A.J. Brown202225PHI17299.688149611
T.J. Houshmandzadeh200730CIN16297.7112114312
Chad Johnson200527CIN16297.59714329
Julio Jones201425ATL15297.410415936
Jimmy Smith200132JAX1629711213738
JuJu Smith-Schuster201822PIT16296.911114267
Odell Beckham Jr.201624NYG16296.6101136710
Tyreek Hill202127KAN17296.511112399
Andre Johnson201231HOU16295.811215984
Javon Walker200426GNB16295.289138212
Odell Beckham Jr.201422NYG1229591130512
Larry Fitzgerald200724ARI15294.9100140910
Randall Cobb201424GNB16293.491128712
Dez Bryant201325DAL16292.493123313
Demaryius Thomas201225DEN16291.494143410
Torry Holt200428STL16291.294137210
Mike Evans201825TAM16290.48615248
Randy Moss200225MIN16290.310613477
Eric Moulds200229BUF16289.9100129210
Wes Welker201231NWE16289.411813546
Torry Holt200529STL14289.310213319
Anquan Boldin200525ARI14288.710214027
Ed McCaffrey200032DEN16288.710113179
Victor Cruz201125NYG16287.98215369
DeAndre Hopkins202028ARI16287.811514076
Chad Johnson200729CIN16287.79314408
Randy Moss200932NWE16287.483126413
Isaac Bruce200028STL16287.28714719
Brandon Lloyd201029DEN1628677144811
Stefon Diggs202128BUF17285.5103122510
Chad Johnson200325CIN16285.590135510
Wes Welker200928NWE14285.412313484
Marvin Harrison200432IND16285.386111315
Reggie Wayne200931IND16284.4100126410
Jordy Nelson201126GNB16284.368126315
Keenan Allen201725LAC16284.210213936
Larry Fitzgerald200926ARI16284.297109213
Santana Moss200526WAS162848414839
Alshon Jeffery201323CHI16283.68914217
Terrell Owens200633DAL1628385118013
Anquan Boldin200323ARI16282.710113778
Marques Colston200724NOR16282.298120211
Derrick Alexander200029KAN16281.678139110
Calvin Ridley202026ATL15281.59013749
Calvin Johnson200823DET1628178133112
Wes Welker200726NWE16280.911211758
Larry Fitzgerald201532ARI16280.510912159
Reggie Wayne201032IND16280.511113556
Chad Johnson200426CIN16280.39512749
Brandon Marshall200723DEN16280.210213257
Eric Decker201326DEN16279.887128811
Andre Johnson201332HOU16279.710914075
Marvin Harrison200331IND15279.594127210
Miles Austin200925DAL16278.881132011
Dwayne Bowe201026KAN16278.672116215
Terrell Owens200431PHI14278.577120014
Torry Holt200024STL16278.28216356
Roddy White201130ATL16277.610012968
Pierre Garcon201327WAS16277.511313465
Hines Ward200327PIT16277.495116310
Joe Horn200028NOR162779413408
Brandon Marshall200925DEN15276.9101112010
Drew Bennett200426TEN16276.980124711
Jeremy Maclin201426PHI16276.885131810
Chris Godwin201923TAM14276.18613339
Jarvis Landry201523MIA16275.411011574
Cris Carter200035MIN16275.49612749
Diontae Johnson202125PIT16274.410711618
Greg Jennings201027GNB16274.476126512
Derrick Mason200329TEN16274.49513038
Justin Jefferson202021MIN16274.28814007
Julio Jones201930ATL15274.19913946
T.Y. Hilton201627IND16273.89114486
A.J. Green201527CIN16273.786129710
Reggie Wayne200628IND162738613109
Joey Galloway200534TAM16272.183128710
D.K. Metcalf202023SEA16271.383130310
Donald Driver200631GNB16271.19212958
Steve Smith200924NYG1627110712207
Cooper Kupp201926LAR16270.594116110
Randy Moss200124MIN16270.382123310
Troy Brown200130NWE1627010111995
Peerless Price200226BUF16269.99412529
Torry Holt200630STL16269.893118810
Reggie Wayne200426IND16269.677121012
DeSean Jackson201327PHI16269.48213329
Eric Decker201225DEN16269.485106413
Tim Brown200135OAK16269.49111659
Roddy White201231ATL16269.19213517
Larry Fitzgerald201128ARI16269.18014118
Reggie Wayne201234IND1626910613555
Doug Baldwin201527SEA16268.978106914
Marvin Harrison200533IND15268.682114612
DeAndre Hopkins201927HOU15268.510411657
Percy Harvin201123MIN16268.2879676
Amon-Ra St. Brown202223DET16267.610611616
Demaryius Thomas201528DEN16267.410513046
Roddy White200928ATL16266.585115311
Stefon Diggs201825MIN15266.310210219
Chad Johnson200628CIN16266.38713697
Calvin Johnson201025DET15266.277112012
Robert Woods201826LAR16265.68612196
Tyler Lockett202028SEA16265.4100105410
Greg Jennings200825GNB16265.28012929
Chris Chambers200527MIA1626582111811
Roddy White200827ATL16264.68813827
Amani Toomer200228NYG16264.58213438
Jordy Nelson201328GNB16264.48513148
Steve Smith Sr.201132CAR162647913947
Joe Horn200129NOR16263.98312659
Joe Horn200230NOR16263.48813127
Allen Robinson202027CHI16262.910212506
Mike Evans202128TAM16262.574103514
Julio Jones201223ATL16261.879119810
Alshon Jeffery201424CHI16261.685113310
Keenan Allen201927LAC16261.510411996
Larry Fitzgerald201734ARI16261.410911566
Calvin Johnson201530DET16261.48812149
DeSean Jackson200923PHI15261.36211569
Vincent Jackson201229TAM16260.47213848
Jimmy Smith200031JAX15260.39112138
Sidney Rice200923MIN16260.28313128
Keenan Allen201826LAC16260.19711966
Brandon Marshall200824DEN15260.110412656
Jarvis Landry201725MIA162601129879
Julio Jones201627ATL14259.98314096
Steve Smith Sr.200627CAR14259.78311668
Anquan Boldin200828ARI12259.589103811
Torry Holt200125STL16259.38113637
Marty Booker200125CHI16259.310010718
Jaylen Waddle202224MIA17259.27513568
Hunter Renfrow202126LVR17259.110310389
Golden Tate201426DET16259.19913314
Eric Moulds200027BUF162599413265
Michael Thomas201724NOR16258.510412455
T.Y. Hilton201425IND15258.58213457
Steve Smith Sr.200829CAR14258.17814216
Keenan Allen202129LAC16257.810611386
Marty Booker200226CHI16257.79711896
Muhsin Muhammad200027CAR16257.510211836
Lee Evans200625BUF16257.28212928
Donald Driver200429GNB16257.28412089
Andre Johnson201029HOU13256.68612168
Julian Edelman201933NWE16256.310011176
Tim Brown200034OAK1625676112811
Torry Holt200731STL16255.99311897
Michael Thomas201623NOR15255.79211379
Victor Cruz201226NYG16255.286109210
Jerry Rice200240OAK16255.19212117
Allen Robinson201926CHI16254.99811477
DeVonta Smith202224PHI17254.69511967
Derrick Mason200430TEN16254.59611687
Marques Colston201229NOR16254.483115410
Adam Thielen202030MIN152547492514
Doug Baldwin201628SEA16253.69411287
Brandin Cooks201522NOR16253.68411389
Keenan McCardell200334TAM16253.48411748
Eric Decker201528NYJ15252.780102712
T.J. Houshmandzadeh200629CIN14252.79010819
Plaxico Burress200225PIT16252.57813257
Julio Jones201728ATL16251.98814443
Julian Edelman201327NWE16251.710510566
Laveranues Coles200225NYJ16251.38912645
Roy Williams200625DET16251.28213107
Steve Smith Sr.200324CAR16251.28811107
Jerry Rice200139OAK16250.98311399
Michael Crabtree201225SFO16250.38511059
Hakeem Nicks201022NYG13250.279105211
Antonio Bryant200827TAM162508312487
Mike Wallace201024PIT16249.660125710
Andre Johnson200625HOU16249.110311475
Darrell Jackson200426SEA16248.98711997
Mike Evans202027TAM16248.670100613
Wes Welker200827NWE16248.111111653
Kenny Golladay201926DET1624865119011
Kevin Johnson200125CLE16247.78410979
A.J. Brown202023TEN14247.570107511
Steve Johnson201024BUF16247.382107310
Santana Moss200324NYJ16247.274110510
Davante Adams201624GNB16246.77599712
Mike Williams202127LAC16246.67611469
Amari Cooper201925DAL16246.57911898
Brandin Cooks201623NOR16246.37811738
DeVante Parker201926MIA16246.27212029
Isaac Bruce200432STL16246.28912926
Amari Cooper202228CLE172467811609
Anquan Boldin201333SFO162468511797
Jaylen Waddle202123MIA16245.810410156
Derrick Mason200127TEN15245.87311289
Hines Ward200933PIT16245.79511676
Tyreek Hill201723KAN15245.27511837
Robert Woods202028LAR16245.1909366
Keenan Allen202028LAC14245.11009928
Mike Evans201421TAM15245.168105112
Torry Holt200226STL162459113024
Plaxico Burress200730NYG16244.570102512
D.K. Metcalf202124SEA17244.37596712
Michael Clayton200422TAM16244.38011937
Terrell Owens200330SFO152448011029
Larry Fitzgerald201633ARI16243.810710236
Javon Walker200628DEN16243.76910848
Brandin Cooks201825LAR16243.28012045
Jeremy Maclin201527KAN15243.28710888
Mike Wallace201125PIT162437211938
Bobby Engram200735SEA16242.79411476
Amani Toomer200026NYG16242.57810947
Ja'Marr Chase202222CIN12242.48710469
Chris Godwin202125TAM14242.49811035
Vincent Jackson201330TAM16242.47812247
Laveranues Coles200326WAS16242.38212046
Christian Kirk202226JAX17241.98411088
Larry Fitzgerald201027ARI16241.79011376
Tyler Lockett202129SEA16241.47311758
Randall Cobb201222GNB15240.6809548
Mike Furrey200629DET16240.69810866
Marques Colston201128NOR14240.38011438
Keenan McCardell200132JAX162409311106
Vincent Jackson200926SDG15239.86811679
Adam Thielen201727MIN16239.79112764
Derrick Mason200733BAL16239.710310875
Donald Driver200530GNB16239.48612215
Michael Crabtree201629OAK16239.38910038
T.Y. Hilton201829IND142397612706
Rod Smith200434DEN16238.77911447
Keenan McCardell200031JAX16238.79412075
Michael Pittman Jr.202124IND17238.68810826
Laveranues Coles200629NYJ16238.29110986
Brandon Marshall201127MIA16237.78112146
Koren Robinson200222SEA16237.67812405
D.J. Moore202124CAR17237.59311574
Jarvis Landry201927CLE16237.48311746
Plaxico Burress200528NYG16237.47612147
Joe Horn200331NOR15237.47897310
Tyler Lockett202230SEA16237.38410339
Hakeem Nicks201123NYG15237.27611927
Amari Cooper202026DAL16236.89211145
Keyshawn Johnson200129TAM15236.610612661
Larry Fitzgerald201330ARI16236.28295410
Kevin Curtis200729PHI162367711106
Santana Moss201031WAS16235.99311156
Steve Smith Sr.200728CAR15235.88710027
Terrell Owens200835DAL16235.569105210
Nate Burleson200423MIN16235.56810069
Donald Driver200227GNB16235.47010649
Tyler Lockett201927SEA16235.28210578
Curtis Conway200130SDG16235.17111256
Roddy White200726ATL162358312026
Reggie Wayne200830IND16234.58211456
Santonio Holmes200925PIT16234.47912485
JuJu Smith-Schuster202024PIT16234.1978319
Brandon Stokley200428IND16233.768107710
Darrell Jackson200325SEA16233.76811379
Robert Woods201927LAR15232.99011342
CeeDee Lamb202122DAL16232.87911026
Mike Evans201926TAM13232.76711578
Amari Cooper201622OAK16232.38311535
Brandin Cooks202027HOU152328111506
Brandin Cooks202128HOU16231.89010376
Randy Moss200831NWE16231.869100811
Hines Ward200529PIT15231.56997511
Jarvis Landry201624MIA16231.39411364
Michael Crabtree201528OAK16231.2859229
DeAndre Hopkins201422HOU162317612106
Jordan Matthews201523PHI16230.7859978
D.J. Moore201922CAR15230.58711754
Odell Beckham Jr.201826NYG12230.37710526
Julian Edelman201630NWE16230.39811063
Dwayne Bowe200824KAN16230.28610227
Anquan Boldin200626ARI16230.18312034
Marques Colston200926NOR162307010749
Chad Johnson200931CIN16229.97210479
Eddie Royal200822DEN15229.9919805
Lance Moore200825NOR16229.87992810
Vincent Jackson201128SDG16229.76011069
Terry McLaurin202227WAS172297711915
Julian Edelman201428NWE14228.6929724
Miles Austin201026DAL16228.46910417
Marques Colston201027NOR15228.48410237
Andre Johnson200423HOU16228.47911426
Rod Smith200535DEN16228.28511056
Dwayne Bowe201127KAN16228.18111595
Jeremy Maclin201022PHI162287096410
Brandon Aiyuk202224SFO17227.87810158
Marvin Jones202030DET16227.8769789
Hines Ward200832PIT16227.78110437
David Boston200022ARI16227.57111567
Amon-Ra St. Brown202122DET17227.3909125
Chris Chambers200325MIA16227.36496311
Darrell Jackson200123SEA162277010818
Jimmy Smith200233JAX16226.98010277
D.K. Metcalf202225SEA17226.89010486
A.J. Green201729CIN16226.87510788
Calvin Johnson201429DET13226.77110778
James Jones201228GNB16226.46478414
Marquise Brown202124BAL16226.39110086
Demaryius Thomas201629DEN16226.39010835
Isaac Bruce200230STL16226.37910757
Santana Moss200829WAS16226.17910446
DJ Chark201923JAX15225.87310088
Kelvin Benjamin201423CAR16225.87310089
T.J. Houshmandzadeh200528CIN14225.8789567
Mike Evans202229TAM15225.47711246
Jimmy Smith200435JAX16225.27411726
Marvin Jones201727DET16225.16111019
Allen Hurns201524JAX15225.164103110

The average age for this group is 27.16 years old. Below is a distribution graph of the ages of qualifying WRs when they hit a peak season.

5ppdev.com/web/apex/public


Previously, the youngest player to accomplish a peak season was Mike Evans in 2016 at 21 years old. Justin Jefferson matched Evans this season by scoring 270.2 fantasy points as a 21-year-old rookie. In the 2021 season, Ja’Marr Chase joined them with a 1,455-yard 13-touchdown rookie season. Chase presents a strong argument for why he should be at the top of the board in dynasty drafts.

Most would call Jerry Rice the greatest of all time and he didn’t disappoint at the end of his career, as the only player to meet the criteria over the age of 35. Rice incredibly accomplished the feat at 39 and 40 years old but would have also met the criteria at 32, 33, 34, and 36 had we included seasons prior to 2000. Rice falls directly in the anomaly category – it’s unfair to expect the same production from other wide receivers.

The peak age for an NFL wide receiver appears to land at ages 23 to 30, as 79.74 percent of the individual seasons fall within this range. A more magnified peak is in the 25 to 29 range, where 56.84 percent of peak seasons reside. As I do these studies annually, the average age becomes younger each season. Two years ago the average age of this group was 27.26, last year it fell to 27.16, now it sits at 27.08 years old.

There is a steady decline that takes place after the age 29 season and continues with each passing year. Just 6.32 percent of the peak seasons happen after the age 32 season and a minuscule 2.1 percent of the seasons take place after age 34.

Let’s see if the peak or drop-off changes if we raise the floor for a peak season.

Re-Defining A Peak Season

If we raise the minimum fantasy points scored for a peak season to 258 (roughly top-10 production) then the sample size drops to 212 seasons. Nine wide receivers in 2020 scored at least 258 PPR fantasy points. Since 2000, an average of 9.2 receivers make this list per season.

The full list of players to qualify is included below.

PlayerSeasonAgeTmGPPRRecYdsTD
Cooper Kupp202128LAR17439.5145194716
Antonio Brown201527PIT16388.2136183410
Antonio Brown201426PIT16386.9129169813
Randy Moss200730NWE16385.398149323
Marvin Harrison200230IND16384.2143172211
Randy Moss200326MIN16376111163217
Julio Jones201526ATL16375.113618718
Michael Thomas201926NOR16374.614917259
Justin Jefferson202223MIN17368.712818098
Calvin Johnson201126DET16359.296168116
Torry Holt200327STL16359.1117169612
Davante Adams202028GNB14358.4115137418
Marvin Harrison200129IND16351.7109152415
Tyreek Hill202228MIA17347.211917107
Davante Adams202129GNB16344.3123155311
Calvin Johnson201227DET16342.412219645
Demaryius Thomas201427DEN16340.9111161911
Brandon Marshall201531NYJ16339.2109150214
Deebo Samuel202125SFO163397714056
Steve Smith Sr.200526CAR16337.8103156312
Hines Ward200226PIT16337.1112132912
Wes Welker201130NWE16335.912215699
Davante Adams202230LVR17335.5100151614
Brandon Marshall201228CHI16334.6118150811
Tyreek Hill201824KAN1633487147912
DeAndre Hopkins201826HOU16333.5115157211
Terrell Owens200128SFO16332.393141216
DeAndre Hopkins201523HOU16331.1111152111
Justin Jefferson202122MIN17330.4108161610
Davante Adams201826GNB15329.6111138613
Muhsin Muhammad200431CAR1632993140516
Tyreek Hill202026KAN15328.987127615
Stefon Diggs202027BUF16328.612715358
Jordy Nelson201429GNB16327.998151913
Marvin Harrison200028IND16327.3102141314
Julio Jones201829ATL16325.911316778
Antonio Brown201830PIT15323.7104129715
Rod Smith200030DEN16322.110016028
Terrell Owens200229SFO14321.9100130013
Terrell Owens200027SFO14321.297145113
Andre Johnson200827HOU16320.511515758
Odell Beckham Jr.201523NYG15319.396145013
Demaryius Thomas201326DEN1631992143014
Rod Smith200131DEN15318113134311
Stefon Diggs202229BUF16316.6108142911
Roddy White201029ATL16316.2115138910
Dez Bryant201426DAL1631688132016
Michael Thomas201825NOR16315.512514059
Antonio Brown201325PIT16314.911014998
Andre Johnson200928HOU16314.910115699
Josh Gordon201322CLE14314.48716469
Randy Moss200023MIN16313.277143715
Larry Fitzgerald200825ARI16311.196143112
Antonio Brown201729PIT14310.310115339
DeAndre Hopkins201725HOU15309.896137813
Reggie Wayne200729IND16309.4104151010
Larry Fitzgerald200522ARI16308103140910
Adam Thielen201828MIN16307.311313739
Antonio Brown201628PIT15307.3106128412
David Boston200123ARI16307.39815988
Terrell Owens200734DAL1530781135515
A.J. Green201325CIN16306.698142611
Brandon Marshall201329CHI16305.5100129512
Jordy Nelson201631GNB16304.797125714
Ja'Marr Chase202121CIN17304.681145513
Mike Evans201623TAM16304.196132112
Allen Robinson201522JAX1630480140014
Calvin Johnson201328DET14303.284149212
Joe Horn200432NOR16301.994139911
Emmanuel Sanders201427DEN16301.810114049
CeeDee Lamb202223DAL17301.610713599
Marvin Harrison200634IND16301.695136612
Braylon Edwards200724CLE16300.980128916
A.J. Green201224CIN16299.897135011
Dez Bryant201224DAL16299.792138212
A.J. Brown202225PHI17299.688149611
T.J. Houshmandzadeh200730CIN16297.7112114312
Chad Johnson200527CIN16297.59714329
Julio Jones201425ATL15297.410415936
Jimmy Smith200132JAX1629711213738
JuJu Smith-Schuster201822PIT16296.911114267
Odell Beckham Jr.201624NYG16296.6101136710
Tyreek Hill202127KAN17296.511112399
Andre Johnson201231HOU16295.811215984
Javon Walker200426GNB16295.289138212
Odell Beckham Jr.201422NYG1229591130512
Larry Fitzgerald200724ARI15294.9100140910
Randall Cobb201424GNB16293.491128712
Dez Bryant201325DAL16292.493123313
Demaryius Thomas201225DEN16291.494143410
Torry Holt200428STL16291.294137210
Mike Evans201825TAM16290.48615248
Randy Moss200225MIN16290.310613477
Eric Moulds200229BUF16289.9100129210
Wes Welker201231NWE16289.411813546
Torry Holt200529STL14289.310213319
Anquan Boldin200525ARI14288.710214027
Ed McCaffrey200032DEN16288.710113179
Victor Cruz201125NYG16287.98215369
DeAndre Hopkins202028ARI16287.811514076
Chad Johnson200729CIN16287.79314408
Randy Moss200932NWE16287.483126413
Isaac Bruce200028STL16287.28714719
Brandon Lloyd201029DEN1628677144811
Stefon Diggs202128BUF17285.5103122510
Chad Johnson200325CIN16285.590135510
Wes Welker200928NWE14285.412313484
Marvin Harrison200432IND16285.386111315
Reggie Wayne200931IND16284.4100126410
Jordy Nelson201126GNB16284.368126315
Keenan Allen201725LAC16284.210213936
Larry Fitzgerald200926ARI16284.297109213
Santana Moss200526WAS162848414839
Alshon Jeffery201323CHI16283.68914217
Terrell Owens200633DAL1628385118013
Anquan Boldin200323ARI16282.710113778
Marques Colston200724NOR16282.298120211
Derrick Alexander200029KAN16281.678139110
Calvin Ridley202026ATL15281.59013749
Calvin Johnson200823DET1628178133112
Wes Welker200726NWE16280.911211758
Larry Fitzgerald201532ARI16280.510912159
Reggie Wayne201032IND16280.511113556
Chad Johnson200426CIN16280.39512749
Brandon Marshall200723DEN16280.210213257
Eric Decker201326DEN16279.887128811
Andre Johnson201332HOU16279.710914075
Marvin Harrison200331IND15279.594127210
Miles Austin200925DAL16278.881132011
Dwayne Bowe201026KAN16278.672116215
Terrell Owens200431PHI14278.577120014
Torry Holt200024STL16278.28216356
Roddy White201130ATL16277.610012968
Pierre Garcon201327WAS16277.511313465
Hines Ward200327PIT16277.495116310
Joe Horn200028NOR162779413408
Brandon Marshall200925DEN15276.9101112010
Drew Bennett200426TEN16276.980124711
Jeremy Maclin201426PHI16276.885131810
Chris Godwin201923TAM14276.18613339
Jarvis Landry201523MIA16275.411011574
Cris Carter200035MIN16275.49612749
Diontae Johnson202125PIT16274.410711618
Greg Jennings201027GNB16274.476126512
Derrick Mason200329TEN16274.49513038
Justin Jefferson202021MIN16274.28814007
Julio Jones201930ATL15274.19913946
T.Y. Hilton201627IND16273.89114486
A.J. Green201527CIN16273.786129710
Reggie Wayne200628IND162738613109
Joey Galloway200534TAM16272.183128710
D.K. Metcalf202023SEA16271.383130310
Donald Driver200631GNB16271.19212958
Steve Smith200924NYG1627110712207
Cooper Kupp201926LAR16270.594116110
Randy Moss200124MIN16270.382123310
Troy Brown200130NWE1627010111995
Peerless Price200226BUF16269.99412529
Torry Holt200630STL16269.893118810
Reggie Wayne200426IND16269.677121012
DeSean Jackson201327PHI16269.48213329
Eric Decker201225DEN16269.485106413
Tim Brown200135OAK16269.49111659
Roddy White201231ATL16269.19213517
Larry Fitzgerald201128ARI16269.18014118
Reggie Wayne201234IND1626910613555
Doug Baldwin201527SEA16268.978106914
Marvin Harrison200533IND15268.682114612
DeAndre Hopkins201927HOU15268.510411657
Percy Harvin201123MIN16268.2879676
Amon-Ra St. Brown202223DET16267.610611616
Demaryius Thomas201528DEN16267.410513046
Roddy White200928ATL16266.585115311
Stefon Diggs201825MIN15266.310210219
Chad Johnson200628CIN16266.38713697
Calvin Johnson201025DET15266.277112012
Robert Woods201826LAR16265.68612196
Tyler Lockett202028SEA16265.4100105410
Greg Jennings200825GNB16265.28012929
Chris Chambers200527MIA1626582111811
Roddy White200827ATL16264.68813827
Amani Toomer200228NYG16264.58213438
Jordy Nelson201328GNB16264.48513148
Steve Smith Sr.201132CAR162647913947
Joe Horn200129NOR16263.98312659
Joe Horn200230NOR16263.48813127
Allen Robinson202027CHI16262.910212506
Mike Evans202128TAM16262.574103514
Julio Jones201223ATL16261.879119810
Alshon Jeffery201424CHI16261.685113310
Keenan Allen201927LAC16261.510411996
Larry Fitzgerald201734ARI16261.410911566
Calvin Johnson201530DET16261.48812149
DeSean Jackson200923PHI15261.36211569
Vincent Jackson201229TAM16260.47213848
Jimmy Smith200031JAX15260.39112138
Sidney Rice200923MIN16260.28313128
Keenan Allen201826LAC16260.19711966
Brandon Marshall200824DEN15260.110412656
Jarvis Landry201725MIA162601129879
Julio Jones201627ATL14259.98314096
Steve Smith Sr.200627CAR14259.78311668
Anquan Boldin200828ARI12259.589103811
Torry Holt200125STL16259.38113637
Marty Booker200125CHI16259.310010718
Jaylen Waddle202224MIA17259.27513568
Hunter Renfrow202126LVR17259.110310389
Golden Tate201426DET16259.19913314
Eric Moulds200027BUF162599413265
Michael Thomas201724NOR16258.510412455
T.Y. Hilton201425IND15258.58213457
Steve Smith Sr.200829CAR14258.17814216

The average age ever so slightly drops by 0.02 years to 27.06. Below is a distribution graph of the ages.

5ppdev.com/web/apex/public


With the higher parameter, no player over 35 has accomplished a peak season. The former peak range from ages 23 to 30 jumps to include 82.1 percent of the seasons, while 59.9 percent fall within the 25 to 29 age range.

What can we learn from re-defining the peak? If we’re looking for higher-end seasons, it’s helpful to learn from the characteristics of the players who have accomplished the feat.

Raising The Qualifier Again

If we raise the qualifying fantasy points scored for a peak season to 285 (on average, 4.7 receivers qualify for this list each season) then the sample size drops to 108 seasons. Out of wide receivers, only Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, CeeDee Lamb, and A.J. Brown scored over 285 PPR fantasy points this past season. Again, the players are listed below.

PlayerSeasonAgeTmGPPRRecYdsTD
Cooper Kupp202128LAR17439.5145194716
Antonio Brown201527PIT16388.2136183410
Antonio Brown201426PIT16386.9129169813
Randy Moss200730NWE16385.398149323
Marvin Harrison200230IND16384.2143172211
Randy Moss200326MIN16376111163217
Julio Jones201526ATL16375.113618718
Michael Thomas201926NOR16374.614917259
Justin Jefferson202223MIN17368.712818098
Calvin Johnson201126DET16359.296168116
Torry Holt200327STL16359.1117169612
Davante Adams202028GNB14358.4115137418
Marvin Harrison200129IND16351.7109152415
Tyreek Hill202228MIA17347.211917107
Davante Adams202129GNB16344.3123155311
Calvin Johnson201227DET16342.412219645
Demaryius Thomas201427DEN16340.9111161911
Brandon Marshall201531NYJ16339.2109150214
Deebo Samuel202125SFO163397714056
Steve Smith Sr.200526CAR16337.8103156312
Hines Ward200226PIT16337.1112132912
Wes Welker201130NWE16335.912215699
Davante Adams202230LVR17335.5100151614
Brandon Marshall201228CHI16334.6118150811
Tyreek Hill201824KAN1633487147912
DeAndre Hopkins201826HOU16333.5115157211
Terrell Owens200128SFO16332.393141216
DeAndre Hopkins201523HOU16331.1111152111
Justin Jefferson202122MIN17330.4108161610
Davante Adams201826GNB15329.6111138613
Muhsin Muhammad200431CAR1632993140516
Tyreek Hill202026KAN15328.987127615
Stefon Diggs202027BUF16328.612715358
Jordy Nelson201429GNB16327.998151913
Marvin Harrison200028IND16327.3102141314
Julio Jones201829ATL16325.911316778
Antonio Brown201830PIT15323.7104129715
Rod Smith200030DEN16322.110016028
Terrell Owens200229SFO14321.9100130013
Terrell Owens200027SFO14321.297145113
Andre Johnson200827HOU16320.511515758
Odell Beckham Jr.201523NYG15319.396145013
Demaryius Thomas201326DEN1631992143014
Rod Smith200131DEN15318113134311
Stefon Diggs202229BUF16316.6108142911
Roddy White201029ATL16316.2115138910
Dez Bryant201426DAL1631688132016
Michael Thomas201825NOR16315.512514059
Antonio Brown201325PIT16314.911014998
Andre Johnson200928HOU16314.910115699
Josh Gordon201322CLE14314.48716469
Randy Moss200023MIN16313.277143715
Larry Fitzgerald200825ARI16311.196143112
Antonio Brown201729PIT14310.310115339
DeAndre Hopkins201725HOU15309.896137813
Reggie Wayne200729IND16309.4104151010
Larry Fitzgerald200522ARI16308103140910
Adam Thielen201828MIN16307.311313739
Antonio Brown201628PIT15307.3106128412
David Boston200123ARI16307.39815988
Terrell Owens200734DAL1530781135515
A.J. Green201325CIN16306.698142611
Brandon Marshall201329CHI16305.5100129512
Jordy Nelson201631GNB16304.797125714
Ja'Marr Chase202121CIN17304.681145513
Mike Evans201623TAM16304.196132112
Allen Robinson201522JAX1630480140014
Calvin Johnson201328DET14303.284149212
Joe Horn200432NOR16301.994139911
Emmanuel Sanders201427DEN16301.810114049
CeeDee Lamb202223DAL17301.610713599
Marvin Harrison200634IND16301.695136612
Braylon Edwards200724CLE16300.980128916
A.J. Green201224CIN16299.897135011
Dez Bryant201224DAL16299.792138212
A.J. Brown202225PHI17299.688149611
T.J. Houshmandzadeh200730CIN16297.7112114312
Chad Johnson200527CIN16297.59714329
Julio Jones201425ATL15297.410415936
Jimmy Smith200132JAX1629711213738
JuJu Smith-Schuster201822PIT16296.911114267
Odell Beckham Jr.201624NYG16296.6101136710
Tyreek Hill202127KAN17296.511112399
Andre Johnson201231HOU16295.811215984
Javon Walker200426GNB16295.289138212
Odell Beckham Jr.201422NYG1229591130512
Larry Fitzgerald200724ARI15294.9100140910
Randall Cobb201424GNB16293.491128712
Dez Bryant201325DAL16292.493123313
Demaryius Thomas201225DEN16291.494143410
Torry Holt200428STL16291.294137210
Mike Evans201825TAM16290.48615248
Randy Moss200225MIN16290.310613477
Eric Moulds200229BUF16289.9100129210
Wes Welker201231NWE16289.411813546
Torry Holt200529STL14289.310213319
Anquan Boldin200525ARI14288.710214027
Ed McCaffrey200032DEN16288.710113179
Victor Cruz201125NYG16287.98215369
DeAndre Hopkins202028ARI16287.811514076
Chad Johnson200729CIN16287.79314408
Randy Moss200932NWE16287.483126413
Isaac Bruce200028STL16287.28714719
Brandon Lloyd201029DEN1628677144811
Stefon Diggs202128BUF17285.5103122510
Chad Johnson200325CIN16285.590135510
Wes Welker200928NWE14285.412313484
Marvin Harrison200432IND16285.386111315

The average age drops again by 0.07 years to 26.99. Below is a distribution graph of the qualifiers.

5ppdev.com/web/apex/public


The two 35-year-old seasons no longer qualify – the oldest receivers to qualify since 2000 were 34: all-time greats Terrell Owens and Marvin Harrison. Note that since 2009, the oldest receiver to qualify is 31 years old – the most recent being Jordy Nelson in 2016.

We can’t say enough good things about Ja’Marr Chase. In 2021, he became the first 21-year-old to make this list.

As is the case every year, the percentage of players under 30 rises to 81.5 percent. As we continue to raise the PPR points threshold, the age of the players continues to drop. Let’s see if it continues if we raise the requirement one more time.

Raising The Qualifier One Last Time

If we raise the qualifying fantasy points scored for a peak season to 299 PPR fantasy points, the sample size drops to 76 seasons. These are the best of the best receiver seasons – only 3.3 receivers qualify per year. Here are the studs who qualified:

PlayerSeasonAgeTmGPPRRecYdsTD
Cooper Kupp202128LAR17439.5145194716
Antonio Brown201527PIT16388.2136183410
Antonio Brown201426PIT16386.9129169813
Randy Moss200730NWE16385.398149323
Marvin Harrison200230IND16384.2143172211
Randy Moss200326MIN16376111163217
Julio Jones201526ATL16375.113618718
Michael Thomas201926NOR16374.614917259
Justin Jefferson202223MIN17368.712818098
Calvin Johnson201126DET16359.296168116
Torry Holt200327STL16359.1117169612
Davante Adams202028GNB14358.4115137418
Marvin Harrison200129IND16351.7109152415
Tyreek Hill202228MIA17347.211917107
Davante Adams202129GNB16344.3123155311
Calvin Johnson201227DET16342.412219645
Demaryius Thomas201427DEN16340.9111161911
Brandon Marshall201531NYJ16339.2109150214
Deebo Samuel202125SFO163397714056
Steve Smith Sr.200526CAR16337.8103156312
Hines Ward200226PIT16337.1112132912
Wes Welker201130NWE16335.912215699
Davante Adams202230LVR17335.5100151614
Brandon Marshall201228CHI16334.6118150811
Tyreek Hill201824KAN1633487147912
DeAndre Hopkins201826HOU16333.5115157211
Terrell Owens200128SFO16332.393141216
DeAndre Hopkins201523HOU16331.1111152111
Justin Jefferson202122MIN17330.4108161610
Davante Adams201826GNB15329.6111138613
Muhsin Muhammad200431CAR1632993140516
Tyreek Hill202026KAN15328.987127615
Stefon Diggs202027BUF16328.612715358
Jordy Nelson201429GNB16327.998151913
Marvin Harrison200028IND16327.3102141314
Julio Jones201829ATL16325.911316778
Antonio Brown201830PIT15323.7104129715
Rod Smith200030DEN16322.110016028
Terrell Owens200229SFO14321.9100130013
Terrell Owens200027SFO14321.297145113
Andre Johnson200827HOU16320.511515758
Odell Beckham Jr.201523NYG15319.396145013
Demaryius Thomas201326DEN1631992143014
Rod Smith200131DEN15318113134311
Stefon Diggs202229BUF16316.6108142911
Roddy White201029ATL16316.2115138910
Dez Bryant201426DAL1631688132016
Michael Thomas201825NOR16315.512514059
Antonio Brown201325PIT16314.911014998
Andre Johnson200928HOU16314.910115699
Josh Gordon201322CLE14314.48716469
Randy Moss200023MIN16313.277143715
Larry Fitzgerald200825ARI16311.196143112
Antonio Brown201729PIT14310.310115339
DeAndre Hopkins201725HOU15309.896137813
Reggie Wayne200729IND16309.4104151010
Larry Fitzgerald200522ARI16308103140910
Adam Thielen201828MIN16307.311313739
Antonio Brown201628PIT15307.3106128412
David Boston200123ARI16307.39815988
Terrell Owens200734DAL1530781135515
A.J. Green201325CIN16306.698142611
Brandon Marshall201329CHI16305.5100129512
Jordy Nelson201631GNB16304.797125714
Ja'Marr Chase202121CIN17304.681145513
Mike Evans201623TAM16304.196132112
Allen Robinson201522JAX1630480140014
Calvin Johnson201328DET14303.284149212
Joe Horn200432NOR16301.994139911
Emmanuel Sanders201427DEN16301.810114049
CeeDee Lamb202223DAL17301.610713599
Marvin Harrison200634IND16301.695136612
Braylon Edwards200724CLE16300.980128916
A.J. Green201224CIN16299.897135011
Dez Bryant201224DAL16299.792138212
A.J. Brown202225PHI17299.688149611

The average age drops yet again by 0.11 years to 26.88. Below is a distribution graph of the new qualifiers.

5ppdev.com/web/apex/public


An incredible 84.2 percent of the seasons land within ages 23 to 30. 61.8 percent of the seasons fall between 25 and 29 years old.

Comparison of Thresholds

We can learn by comparing the results at each different threshold.

225 PPR 258 PPR 285 PPR 299 PPR
Qualifiers 380 212 108 76
Average Qualifiers Per Season 16.5 9.2 4.7 3.3
Average Age 27.08 27.06 26.99 26.88
Percentage Under 30 78.95% 79.72% 81.48% 82.89%
Players Age 23-30 79.74% 82.08% 81.48% 84.21%
Players Age 23-29 72.89% 75.94% 75.00% 76.32%
Players Age 25-29 56.84% 59.91% 62.04% 61.84%

With each increase in PPR points, the average age dropped. In addition, the percentage of qualifiers under 30 years old rose. It’s clear that peak seasons are less likely to take place after turning 30 – definitely past the peak age for an NFL wide receiver. For most receivers, the wheels start falling off shortly thereafter.

When playing in dynasty leagues, it’s worth remembering Bill Belichick’s mantra: rather trade a player too early than too late.