Let’s preface this piece by explaining that rankings are inherently difficult, not to mention how much more challenging they are when a draft class is this deep. My goal is to illustrate my thought process and provide owners with actionable advice, based on each player’s potential vs cost.

I do not like drafting purely by rankings, as I believe they do a poor job of expressing drops in value. Instead, I prefer to use tiers as my base guideline during drafts and I always try to find a way to get myself at the back of the tier instead of at the front to maximize value.

I’m all about value and want to get the most bang for my buck in trades and draft picks. I’m going to help give you a clear process on how to attack your rookie draft in terms of which parts of the draft are dripping with value as compared other parts, where the value is lacking and it may be worthwhile to trade back. I’ll be using the rookie average draft position (ADP) to help give us a clearer picture of when these pockets of values are.

Knowing the future state of rookie drafts can help identify positional targets in this draft. With a strong wide receiver class coming in next year, it would make sense to target the running back position in this class. Another reason to target running backs is that they accrue value much quicker than receivers. If you have two players closely ranked, generally it’s smart to go with the running back as it’s more likely than not you can always trade that RB for the WR plus an asset the following offseason.

Let’s roll into this.

Tier 1 (Generational)

How to Approach This Tier

Just draft Jonathan Taylor. Don’t overthink it.

1.01, Jonathan Taylor (ADP 1.01)

Where do I even begin? Jonathan Taylor is as close to the “perfect” running back prospect as you can find. Taylor is one of the best RB prospects we have ever laid our eyes upon. I’ll let these tweets do the talking.

What else more could you want from him? He doesn’t just check all the boxes, he dominates them. If you need any additional reasons to draft him, he fares well in my study for future RB1 production. We should be viewing Taylor as a top-10 dynasty asset even before playing an NFL game.

Verdict: Still Undervalued (Target)

Tier 2 (Elite RBs)

How to Approach This Tier

This is the money tier. I’m doing everything I can to trade up to secure one of these players on my dynasty team. It’s rare you get four running backs in one class who profile as strong RB1s. This is the cheapest these players will ever be, so do your best to acquire them.

If I own the 1.02, I’m trying to trade back to the 1.03 or 1.04 and secure extra capital along the way. Considering CeeDee Lamb’s ADP of 1.03, make sure to be careful if trading back to 1.04 with Dobbins as your target. Running back needy teams will almost certainly scoop him up at 1.03.

1.02, JK Dobbins (1.04 ADP)

Consensus bests D’Andre Swift in this spot and while I think they are both very good players, I give the slight edge to Dobbins here.

Production is key and Dobbins has shined ever since he was a freshman at Ohio State. He’s the first freshman RB since 2000 to accumulate 1,400 or more yards on 7 or more yards per carry, and catch 20 or more passes in a season.

Dobbins not only was a mega-producer at one of the most prestigious colleges, but he’s also an incredible athlete. As a 17-year-old Dobbins ran a 4.44 40 yard dash, jumped 43″ on the vertical, had a 4.09 20-yard shuttle, and had a 146.76 SPARQ rating. To put into perspective how crazy that is, there’s only been one running back to jump 43″ or higher on the vertical at the combine and that SPARQ rating would have put him in the 99th percentile of all NFL RBs – barely behind Saquon Barkley. While we are disappointed he didn’t participate in the combine, this could be a blessing in disguise as it may be reducing his price tag.

Dobbins twice hit the threshold to increase his odds of becoming an RB1.

Verdict: Slightly Undervalued (Target)

1.03, D’Andre Swift (1.02 ADP)

D’Andre Swift was the consensus 1.01 prior to the combine, but a strong showing from Taylor has rightfully put the latter in the 1.01 slot. Swift offers workhorse size and ability evidenced by his 212-lb frame, but he was never actually a workhorse in college.

Should this concern us? Not really. Georgia coach Kirby Smart’s pitch to running backs is that they will have fresh tires when they come out because they will be playing with other good backs.

Swift’s college touches are not much less than what we’ve seen from other stud Georgia backs like Nick Chubb and Todd Gurley. Swift has not only had a heavy utilization in the passing game in college, but he’s been efficient when running on the ground in each of his college seasons.

MyBookie also has Swift as a -225 favorite to be the first RB drafted in this year’s draft. If Swift gets first-round draft capital with a solid landing spot, he could jump ahead of Dobbins in my rankings. A player’s draft position is one of the biggest’s indicators of future value and opportunity.

Verdict: Properly Valued

1.04, Cam Akers (ADP 1.06)

I’d like to say that these are the clear top four players in this class in terms of providing owners with immediate value and upside. It’s possible we see each of these players enter the top-10 dynasty RB discussion by this time next year. Landing spot and draft capital could move Dobbins, Swift, or Akers around in any order post-draft. Akers boasts a complete profile we like to see with very few weaknesses.

The one knock on Akers would be his lackluster college yards per carry, but this can be explained easily as he had a very poor offensive line. Florida State finished bottom 25 in each of adjusted line yards per carry, power success rate, and stuff rate last season. This wasn’t just a one-year thing. Florida State’s offensive line was even worse in 2018 in each of those categories they finished dead last in adjusted line yards per carry, bottom five in stuff rate, and bottom-20 in power success rate. Even behind a poor offensive, Akers still produced over 1,100 yards on the ground for 18 TDs and caught 30 passes.

Akers also fit the criteria to increase his odds of becoming an RB1 based on his college production.

Clearly a stud, Akers would be the top running back in most draft classes and therefore is one of the more undervalued rookie selections in recent memory.

Verdict: Undervalued (Target)

Tier 3 (a pass-catching RB)

How to Approach This Tier

This isn’t a tier where I’m actively trying to get into. In fact, if I own 1.05 and the top RBs are gone, I’m looking to trade back to the 1.07 or even later if the value is there.

1.05 Clyde Edwards-Helaire (ADP 1.07)

Clyde Edwards-Helaire fits perfectly in today’s NFL. Landing spots are a key data point in establishing the value of incoming RBs and nobody has a higher “landing spot ceiling” than Edwards-Helaire. He’s one of only three RBs to “meet” with the Chiefs and has “met” with other exciting landing spots like Atlanta and Tampa Bay.

Edwards-Helaire is the kind of RB that pass-happy offenses would drool to land as evidenced by his amazing efficiency in the receiving game. He caught 55 of his 58 targets last season while rushing for over 1,400 yards on an efficient 6.6 YPC.

Edwards-Helaire lacks the ideal speed and size to be a true workhorse in the NFL but should fit in as a lead committee back who can push for multiple RB1 seasons due his passing game usage.

Like Taylor, Dobbins, and Akers, Edwards-Helaire also fits in the category of players we see become future RB1s.

While he may not have the highest ceiling of these RBs, he offers one of the safest floors.

Verdict: Properly Valued

Tier 4 (The Early Declares)

I’d like to preface this by saying my rankings are based on upside and I want to focus on which prospects closely resemble a WR1 in fantasy. Here are a couple of tweets to digest before we dig in here.

Just 26 of 122 wide receivers drafted in the top three rounds with a BMI under 27 became a WR1 (21%).

If you haven’t read my articles that include the importance of weight for rookie receivers then I suggest you do so before moving on. If a player does not meet the desired weight threshold, I have also written about in which contexts underweight wide receivers end up succeeding. In short, weight is incredibly important.

The receivers listed in this tier have few variables to suggest that they are better than their peers. In other words, you could make an argument for any of them being ranked at the top of this tier. Landing spot and draft capital will dictate these players post-draft ranking.

How to Approach This Tier

If I have a pick in the 1.06-1.08 range with the top RBs off the board, I’m looking to trade back as your other league-mates will likely pay a premium for CeeDee Lamb or Jerry Jeudy. I’d rather own two picks in the 1.10-2.03 range to try and take two shots on similar players that remain in this tier.

1.06, Jalen Reagor (ADP 1.08)

While Jalen Reagor doesn’t hit the 210 lb weight threshold we would ideally like to see, he passes with flying colors in the BMI aspect. Reagor checks nearly every single box we look for in a receiver prospect.

As you can see, WRs who have hit the thresholds that Reagor met, have had some incredible success in the NFL. Additionally, Reagor’s hand size of 9.5 inches meets the minimum threshold in which we see WRs prove to have fantasy success. Reagor looks to have a strong probability of becoming a WR1 at some point in his career.

If that isn’t enough to show why Reagor is awesome, our own Asher Molk also does a nice dive into why Jalen Reagor may be undervalued. In addition, Miguel’s PSI model shows Reagor in the top tier of future fantasy success in which 54% of players hit at least a WR2 season.

All-in-all, Reagor offers a safe floor with a tantalizing ceiling. If he gets drafted in the first round on Thursday, that will check the last box for an exciting wide receiver prospect.

Verdict: Undervalued (Target)

1.07 Laviska Shenault (ADP 2.01)

Shenault is a polarizing name within the dynasty community as analysts either love him or hate him. You can clearly see where I stand.

Shenault checks nearly every box we look for in a WR prospect. Weight and BMI are extremely important for receiver success and Shenault is a standout in this key category. He weighs 227 lbs. at 6’0″ which incredibly gives him the 2nd-highest BMI of any draft-eligible WR since 2000 at 30.8 (the tweet is incorrect).

Shenault is an incredible athlete and boasts an excellent speed score of 103.2 (78th percentile) despite getting hurt during his 40-yard dash at the combine. Injuries have been a concern for Shenault as he didn’t play one full season in college, but he will be at 100 percent by the end of the draft.

While there is a risk due to injury concerns, there is no receiver in this draft class that boasts more upside than Shenault. This is backed up by his insane per game stats as a 19-year-old sophomore in which he averaged 9.6 receptions and 112.3 receiving yards per game. Player Profiler lists his best comparable player as last year’s rookie and future superstar AJ Brown.

One potential downside to Shenault’s resume is that his hand size is only 9 inches, which would be classified as small for a receiver. But this may not matter as much for a player like Shenault who’s game relies on his “RB-like” skill-set to make magic happen after the ball is in his hands (a la Deebo Samuel).

If you’re looking for a player who can absolutely transform your dynasty team and can give you the best return on investment of any 2020 rookie, then look no further than Laviska Shenault.

Verdict: Undervalued (Target)

1.08, CeeDee Lamb (ADP 1.03)

This may seem shockingly low for Lamb and this doesn’t mean I don’t like him. In fact, these WRs are so closely grouped for me that draft capital and landing spots will surely shift these rankings.

Lamb checks so many boxes for a wide receiver. While he didn’t officially breakout until his sophomore season, he still posted an impressive stat line of 46 receptions, 807 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns in his age-18 freshman season alongside Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews.

Lamb also was Oklahoma’s primary punt returner in all three years of college which adds to his impressive resume. What might be the most jaw-dropping stats is that CeeDee Lamb averaged 13.7 yards per target over his entire college career and 19% of his career receptions went for touchdowns. Clearly he’s an incredible receiver who is certain to be drafted in the first round on Thursday.

The concern with Lamb’s overall profile is his weight. If you read the tweet above, you would have seen that only 21 percent of receivers drafted in the top three rounds with under a 27 BMI have hit a WR1 season. Lamb sits at a concerning 25.4 BMI which would make him an outlier in this category to become a WR1. His other knock would be a hand size of 9.25 inches, which is also classified as small.

The rest of Lamb’s profile is so extraordinary that he looks like the type of receiver who would be able to buck this trend. I view Lamb as a high-end WR2 in fantasy for his career who could sprinkle in a few WR1 seasons rather than the perennial WR1 his price tag suggests he will be.

Verdict: Slightly Overvalued

1.09 Tee Higgins (ADP 1.12)

Tee Higgins is a name who deserves to be mentioned with some of the best in the class. Higgins has a near spotless profile and checks many of the boxes we look for.

Knowing that weight is important, Higgins joins Shenault as the only early declares to weigh more than 210 pounds. If efficient with volume in year 1, he could join this exclusive group to have unprecedented success in the NFL. This is possible for Higgins as referenced by his amazing college efficiency. Higgins had over 10 YPT in each of his three college seasons. Even more impressive, over the past two seasons, 15% of his targets went for touchdowns.

Anthony Amico’s model has Higgins as the most likely player to score 200+ PPR points in their first three seasons.

Higgins should receive fairly high draft capital and due to his size, he offers arguably the highest upside in this class.

Verdict: Slightly Undervalued (Target)

1.10 Justin Jefferson (ADP 1.09)

It’s hard to not like Justin Jefferson. His raw numbers from last season are incredibly impressive, but his efficiency is even more eye-popping. His 111 receptions last year came with a 91% catch rate. Jefferson parlayed his 122 targets into 1540 receiving yards (12.6 YPT) and 18 touchdowns. What we love about our NFL superstars is they can be efficient in the face of volume and Jefferson did that in college.

He tested out as a great athlete with plus speed. Jefferson’s size is a slight concern, but he’s also only three pounds away from being in a strong cohort for BMI. His hand size is considered small at 9.125 inches.

Jefferson is a similar prospect than Lamb across the board. Both are efficiency monsters who produced with future and current NFL talent around them. They are good athletes with a sophomore year breakouts. Lastly, both are undersized both in weight and in hand size.

If there is a receiver who is the safest player in this draft, Jefferson has to be near the top of that list. He’s a great player who should thrive in the slot in the NFL. Asher Molk dives into Jefferson’s profile a bit to show why he’s a highly touted prospect.

Verdict: Properly Valued

1.11, Jerry Jeudy (ADP 1.05)

This may seem a bit low for Jeudy, but this says more about this class than Jeudy himself. He is an incredible receiver that film guys love, but he also shows up on the stat sheet. In a crowded WR room that included likely current and future first-round picks, Jeudy stood out.

Despite only receiving 91 targets his sophomore year, he parlayed that into 1,315 receiving yards (14.5 YPT) and 14 TDs en route to a Biletnikoff award for the best college WR.

His efficiency showed up throughout his college career. He finished with a career yards per target of 12.5, which ties Tee Higgins for the 3rd highest career YPT in this class.

Jeudy’s pitfalls are similar to Lamb. Both have a concerning BMI, falling under 26. Only 15 percent of receiver drafted in the first three rounds became a WR1 with a BMI under 26.

Jeudy is a high-floor prospect with less upside than what his current price dictates. He should be a fine NFL player and produce many fantasy-relevant seasons, but he projects as more of a perennial WR2 than a WR1.

Verdict: Slightly Overvalued

Tier 5 (Upside with Red Flags)

How to Approach This Tier

This is my favorite part of the draft. I’m doing everything in my power to gather as many picks in the 1.12-2.05 range as possible this year. Knowing that some of the guys in my Tier 4 will likely fall in this range makes me drool.

The 2020 draft class is top-heavy and deep. Either focus on getting one of the top running backs or trade down for these picks. Understand where these players are going in drafts and trade back to acquire them at values. This is a fun range to add depth to your team with feasible upside to become assets on your dynasty team.

1.12, Bryan Edwards (ADP 2.06)

I’m a big fan of Edwards, had he declared early I would likely have him ranked near or at WR1 for this class. Rich Hribar shows why early declares are crucial for wide receiver prospects. Even though he didn’t declare early, he is still going to be a 21-year-old rookie. This is the only red flag on Edwards’s otherwise fantastic profile.

Well I somehow found a way to have him outside my top-5 WRs, but this shouldn’t be a knock on him at all. The newly released Breakout Finder app, which uses machine-learning with a bunch of advanced metrics, has Bryan Edwards as the top WR in this class.

He has the best breakout age ever recorded and accomplished that while playing against great competition in the SEC. He also did that alongside stud rookie Deebo Samuel. Edwards and Samuel were neck-and-neck in production in their three years together at South Carolina, but remember, Edwards was three years younger than Samuel! Samuel had an incredible rookie season and has a great chance to become a WR1 in his career. That can only mean good things for Edwards.

Edwards also weighs over 210 lbs so he hits the desired weight threshold to increase his odds of becoming a future WR1. If there is a senior receiver to become a WR1 in this class, my bet would be Bryan Edwards.

Verdict: Undervalued (Target)

2.01, AJ Dillon (ADP 2.04)

AJ Dillon is a very good running back, who checks every single box we look for with the exception of receiving production.

To become a RB1, it’s essential for a running back to have involvement in the passing game. Had Dillon had some sort of production in college, he would be mentioned with the top backs in this class. Regardless, he is a true workhorse with incredible size-adjusted athleticism. Like Derrick Henry, Dillon is a two-down bruiser who can carry the ball upwards of 20 times a game.

Dillon broke out on the scene with a 1,589 rushing campaign as a true freshman in the ACC. His incredible production paired with his elite athleticism bodes well for his prospects of becoming a stud running back.

Unfortunately, this type of player is becoming less utilized in today’s NFL. Regardless, Dillon is too good to not have some sort of workhorse/lead committee role at the next level.

Verdict: Undervalued (Target)

2.02, Eno Benjamin (ADP 3.03)

Eno Benjamin has to be the single most undervalued player in this draft. First and foremost, he profiles extremely well for future RB1 production.

Benjamin is the 2nd youngest running back in this draft class and will playing his entire rookie season at age 21. Despite his youth, Eno shows the off-the-field qualities that the NFL values which could lead to him being a higher pick than most expect.

Benjamin’s sophomore season is a unique one. Only nine other college players ever have rushed for 1,600+ yards at 5.5 yards per carry and caught 35 passes. Four of those players had top-three round draft capital and all four became an RB1 in the NFL.

Benjamin fits in the mold of an Aaron Jones, Giovani Bernard, and Duke Johnson-type back. He certainly offers a three-down skill set and could be the arbitrage play to Clyde Edwards-Helaire in this draft.

It remains to be seen if the NFL team he goes to will view him as a workhorse or just a committee back. Regardless, he checks the minimum thresholds we look for in a running back and should easily outperform his current ADP.

Verdict: Highly Undervalued (Target)

2.03, Antonio Gibson (ADP 2.11)

If you’re shooting for the stars with your 2nd round pick look no further than Antonio Gibson. Gibson is a college wide receiver who will be transitioning to running back in the NFL.

In his limited touches, he was beyond dynamic. Gibson averaged 11.2 yards per carry and 13.0 yards per target in college. Granted that was only on 77 total touches, but he was electric every time he touched the ball. This is also referenced by him being one of the top returners in the country last year. All-in-all, Gibson had 1,203 yards from scrimmage and 14 TDs on his 77 career collegiate touches. Just look how electric he is.

Crazy efficiency aside, Gibson has the build of a true workhorse running back.  At 228 lbs. he ran a 4.39 40-yard dash at the combine to lead all running backs. His elite athleticism at his size gives him monstrous upside. His closest comp on player profiler is freak Joe Mixon.

His receiver background will automatically give him an edge in the receiving department in the pros and help create mismatches at the running back spot. With how the NFL is transitioning, Gibson is coming at the perfect time to transition to running back.

While his lack of production is worrisome, he sat behind stud RBs Darrell Henderson and Tony Pollard in 2018 at Memphis. Perhaps that’s why he was moved to receiver. Gibson blows the competition away with his elite athleticism, receiving prowess, workhorse size and elite efficiency at the college level. Apparently the NFL is taking notice. If an NFL team is willing to use a Day 2 pick on Gibson, it is wheels up for him.

If Antonio Gibson had the production some of the top backs had, he would be in the discussion with the best running backs in this class. You could do worse with your 2nd round pick.

Verdict: Undervalued (Target)

2.04, Denzel Mims (ADP 1.11)

Denzel Mims has an interesting profile. Like Edwards, had Mims declared early, he would be near the top of my receiver rankings. Unfortunately, we know that’s it’s a red flag.

Mims boasts an above-average profile across the board. He has the third-highest age-19 dominator rating of all receivers in this class. Mims portrayed impressive athleticism at the combine, which sent him screaming up draft boards. Per Player Profiler, his best comparable player is  Chris Godwin.

Mims has a couple of slight concerns that give me pause. His hand size of 9.375 inches is just under the threshold that translates well in the NFL. In addition, his combine weight is listed at 207 lbs., which is under the ideal weight of 210 and causes his BMI to be a concerning 25.9. Listed at 215 lbs. in college, it’s certainly possible that Mims bulks back up to a promising weight. Perhaps most worrisome, Mims is an older prospect who will be 23 years old during his rookie year.

The NFL has taken notice of Mims’ work at the Senior Bowl and combine, as he is now a projected first-round pick.

Mims overall has a good profile and is an ideal 2nd round target in rookie drafts. Unfortunately, his ADP has climbed into the first round where I would prefer other WR prospects.

Verdict: Slightly Overvalued

2.05, Henry Ruggs (ADP 1.10)

Most of these upcoming players make me feel a little dirty for ranking them where they are. Again, it’s a testament to how deep this class is.

I can absolutely see the allure when it comes to Ruggs. Not only a speedster, Ruggs is an elite athlete – even by NFL standards. Ruggs combines incredible speed and leaping ability, with huge hands. His 10.125 inch hands improve his odds of becoming an elite NFL receiver.

Ruggs was crazy efficient in college as he had the 2nd highest career yards per target in this class with 12.6. He made the most of his touches as 25 of his 100 career touches went for a touchdown. He’s an early declare and is a near-lock to become a 1st round pick in the NFL draft.

Now for some of the negatives to his profile. Ruggs never broke out in college which is extremely concerning but explained by Alabama’s elite wide receiver talent. Since 2013, Tyreek Hill and Adam Humphries are the only two receivers to finish inside the top-24 WRs without breaking out in college. Hill was actually a running back in college hence why he didn’t have a breakout age. Humphries barely snuck into the top 24 in 2018 as part of the Fitzmagic show for the Bucs.

Part of the argument for Ruggs is the incredible talent around him at Alabama. But this hasn’t stopped other loaded WR cores from breaking out in the past. Some examples of 2018 Ole Miss, 2019 LSU, 2013 LSU, and even 2012 Clemson where multiple WRs were able to break out despite the talent around them.

Ruggs’ size is also a concern. He’s underweight at 188 pounds and 26.2 BMI. This makes him less likely to become a WR1 in the NFL.

It’s easy to see why people are so conflicted on Ruggs. While I like Ruggs as a player and think he will have success in the NFL, he’s not a fantasy asset I would like to invest in. He will absolutely make splash plays in the NFL, but I worry he will never become a true WR1 on a team and is more landing spot dependent than most receivers. He seems more of a boom/bust WR2/3 type of asset that isn’t the archetype I want to draft.

Verdict: Overvalued (Avoid)

Tier 6 (Value Depth)

How to Approach This Tier

Sit back and enjoy the value that sits here. It’s a perfect spot to focus on needs while still getting value on that pick.

2.06, Michael Pittman (ADP 2.09)

Michael Pittman has been someone who I have been more fond of recently with the growing buzz behind his NFL stock. He boasts prototypical size at 223 pounds and a BMI of 27.1. If drafted in the first three rounds, that alone would give him a 41% chance to become a WR1. If he is efficient in Year 1 with sufficient volume, he would become a near-lock to have a WR1 season in his career.

Pittman has a later breakout age than we would like, but the rest of his profile is solid. He’s a great athlete with a 93rd percentile speed score. He lit up the NCAA with a dominant senior year with 101 catches, 1275 receiving yards, and 11 TDs.

Pittman’s hand size of 9.25 inches is less than ideal especially for a big man. In addition, he’s a senior which is very concerning. However, considering the lack of WR prospects in this class with good size, Pittman is intriguing.

Verdict: Properly Valued

2.07, Brandon Aiyuk (ADP 2.08)

Brandon Aiyuk is such an interesting prospect with positives and negatives to his profile. First, he has a strong BMI of 27.8 that would put him a solid chance for potential WR1 success in the NFL. Next, Aiyuk has 9.75″ hands that put him in a good cohort for future success.

Aiyuk was very efficient in his two years at ASU. He’s averaged 11.8 yards per target throughout his career there which would put him top-5 in this class. Lastly, he was a stud return man in college and we know that it is important for WR prospects.

It took until N’Keal Harry left ASU for Aiyuk to breakout in college. His lackluster breakout age, along with him being a senior, are red flags in an otherwise interesting profile.

Aiyuk may have some sneaky good draft capital on Thursday. Peter Schrager, who has been one of the most accurate mock drafters, has him going in Round 1. He said: “In speaking with multiple GMs, even with the deep wideout class, Aiyuk is expected to come off the board in Round 1”. This would obviously be a boost for Aiyuk and move him up the board post-draft.

Verdict: Properly Valued

2.08, Joe Burrow (ADP 2.03)

Quarterbacks are generally good values in the 2nd round of rookie drafts and I don’t like ranking Joe Burrow this low.

Burrow has some concerns in his profile. He only had one really good season. Burrow broke out at age 21. And lastly, he will be playing his rookie year at age 24.

What Joe Burrow did last season absolutely overshadows all those concerns. He had the single best passing season in college football history, shattering records along the way to the Heisman.

We know it’s a virtual lock that Burrow goes to the Bengals with the first pick. He will enter a good situation with three different types of receivers in AJ Green, Tyler Boyd, and John Ross. Throw in a healthy offensive line, Joe Mixon, and Zac Taylor calling the shots and this offense has potential to be exciting in the near future.

Burrow should slot in immediately as a top 10 dynasty QB. It’s possible I have him ranked a little too low.

Verdict: Properly Valued

2.09, Ke’Shawn Vaughn (ADP 2.07)

Ke’Shawn Vaughn is a smooth RB who has a lot of positives in his profile. He offers prototypical size to go along with plus athleticism and tops it off with a three down skill-set. Vaughn also boasts a 98th percentile breakout age. Per Player Profiler, his best comparable is Dalvin Cook.

While Vaughn comes with positives, the fact that he was a fifth year senior and is already 23 years old is concerning. If we know that the peak ages for a RB are at 24 and 25, this puts Vaughn at a disadvantage to other running backs.

Vaughn looks the part of a Day 2 running back. Even in a crowded running back class, Vaughn has shown the juice to be called on the 2nd day. Landing spot and official draft capital will be key in determining Vaughn’s post draft ranking.

Verdict: Properly Valued

2.10, Zack Moss (ADP 2.02)

Zack Moss has been a polarizing RB prospect. On one hand, he looks like a well-rounded running back prospect with prototypical size to be a workhorse back. He actually has a strong probability for an RB1 season if drafted in the top three rounds in the NFL draft. This shouldn’t be an issue for Moss as he’s “met” with more teams than any other incoming RB pre-draft.

Moss’s combine was a bit underwhelming as he tested out as a sub-par athlete. We know how important athleticism is for running backs at the next level and this dampers his upside.

Being a senior also isn’t ideal, but the rest of his profile is very solid that he should be able to make the most of his shortcomings. Moss profiles to me as a better version of Jamaal Williams at the next level. He should be a player who gets playing time early in his career and does enough to stay on the field. Despite his lack of upside, this may lead to him sneaking in an RB1 season at some point in his career.

There’s certainly players with more upside in the 2nd round than Moss, but he looks very likely to be a committee back for the first few seasons of his career.

Verdict: Slightly Overvalued

2.11, Tyler Johnson (ADP 3.02)

Tyler Johnson has had a curious road to the draft. His profile screams a strong Day 2 selection, but it looks like the NFL doesn’t value him this way. His odd exclusion from the Senior Bowl had many scratching their heads. Johnson didn’t participate at the combine and therefore has no athletic testing available. It remains to be seen where Johnson will be draft but it will be key in determining his value. If he gets a surprise Day 2 pick like he deserves, he would move up the rankings post-draft.

Johnson was an early breakout at age-19, when he accumulated 61.3 percent dominator rating. To put into perspective how elite that is, Dez Bryant is the only other WR to have a higher dominator rating at that age (61.5%).  He continued to dominate the next two seasons alongside future star WR prospect Rashod Bateman with a 51.5 percent and 38.1 percent dominator rating respectively.

Johnson was not only productive, but efficient in the face of volume. He had a career yards per target of 10.2 in college to go along with his 17.3 YPR. He’s elite in many key categories we look for in a wide receiver prospect.

Draft capital aside, the fact that Johnson didn’t declare early is a red flag. It makes sense why he didn’t declare early last year as the NFL clearly didn’t value him highly. Johnson’s size is a minor concern at 206 lbs. He barely misses out on both the weight and BMI thresholds we want for WR1 upside. Had he weighed a few more pounds he would put himself in some promising company.

I’m intrigued to see what happens with Johnson during the draft. I’m partially optimistic that a team will look at his body of work and rightfully give him the selection he deserves, but I’m also being realistic about it. If he indeed became a Day 3 pick, Johnson would be an exception to my rule of never drafting a Day 3 WR. His ranking will look different post-draft regardless of when he’s drafted.

Verdict: Slightly Undervalued

2.12, Tua Tagovailoa (ADP 2.05)

Tua Tagovailoa is a great quarterback prospect. I’ll let some my tweets do the talking.

Health aside, Tua literally checks every single box for a quarterback prospect. He’s a little older as a prospect at 22 years old, but is an early declare. Had Tua stayed healthy, he may have been the assumed top selection.

If Tua were picked by the Chargers he would likely rise above Burrow in my post-draft rankings. This is a good year to need a quarterback in dynasty. Health permitting, Tua would also slot into my top 10 at QB in dynasty.

Verdict: Properly Valued

Players to Just Miss the Cut

How to Attack the 3rd Round of Rookie Drafts

At this point in the draft you want to start scooping up the filler Day 2 WRs and RBs and start pivoting to high capital QBs who could have fallen along with the TEs. This is prime range to grab some cheap tight ends with upside that would normally cost you a 2nd round pick.

Albert Okwuegbunam

Albert O offers tantalizing upside with his elite athleticism at the TE position. Not only did he run a 4.49 at 258 lbs, he boasts an elite breakout age and dominator rating. He’s also an early declare despite just turning 22 years old. While everyone else focuses on skill positions in the 3rd round, I’ll chase the upside at TE.

Verdict: Undervalued (Target)

Chase Claypool

This is dependent on Chase Claypool being designated at TE in the NFL. If he becomes a TE he would be my TE1 and would shoot up my rankings.

Keep an eye on if a team announces him as a tight end during the draft.

Verdict: Undervalued if TE

KJ Hamler

KJ Hamler’s profile has very strong components to it. He’s an early declare, will be 21 years old for his entire rookie year, and has a great breakout age. What I have a hard time getting over is his size. His BMI of 24.8 is one of the lowest I’ve seen and this severely limits his upside.

If Hamler gets Day 2 draft capital like we expect, he would fall in this category. If he gets drafted Day 3, I’ll let someone else draft him.

Verdict: Overvalued

Antonio Gandy-Golden

Antonio Gandy-Golden has a strong profile for a wide receiver prospect. He is above-average or better in breakout age, dominator rating, hand size, and athleticism. His size puts him in a cohort to potentially be a WR1 with a BMI of 27.1 and weight of 223 lbs. In Miguel’s PSI rankings, Gandy-Golden fits in the top tier of success for wide receivers.

The knock on him would be that he is a senior. If Gandy-Golden gets day 2 draft capital he would move up my board.

Verdict: Undervalued

Joshua Kelley

Joshua Kelley offers prototypical size, great athleticism, and receiving production from a running back. My only concern with Kelley is whether he will be drafted on Day 2. If he can do that, his chances of becoming an RB1 skyrocket. He would jump up my post-draft rankings if this were the case.

Verdict: Undervalued

Justin Herbert

Considered a lock to go top-10 in the NFL draft, Justin Herbert offers starting quarterback upside in Year 1. He has a great breakout age, was fairly efficient in college and didn’t turn the ball over much. He doesn’t look like a star, but should be an adequette quarterback option you can acquire on the cheap if you miss on Burrow and Tua.

Verdict: Properly Valued


As we can see the depth of this class trickles all the way until the mid-third round. From a pure depth standpoint, this is the most exciting rookie year that I have been a part of. Ideally, you can get three contributors to your dynasty team with your first three rookie picks this year.

The strength of this class is at the top with the elite running backs and the depth at wide receiver. Additionally, the quarterbacks are solid values this year and provide upside at the position. Unfortunately, if you needed a tight end this probably isn’t the best year. Still, there are some intriguing upside plays at tight end this year.

I sincerely can’t wait for the NFL draft to kickoff on Thursday. This will be much needed for us who have looking for things to do during the quarantine. The unpredictability will make this one of the most exciting drafts in recent memory. Add on the fact of the insane depth at the skill positions this year, and it makes it intriguing to see where all these puzzle pieces land.

If you’ve made it this far, thank you for reading this! I put in a lot more time than I planned into this piece to make sure you have everything you needed to crush your rookie drafts this year. I hope this is the type of content you were looking for.

Make sure you are following me on Twitter @DaltonGuruFF where I’ll be giving live reactions to our favorite rookies landing spots during the draft.

A thank you to Player Profiler, College Football Reference, and Peter Howard for the data that I used throughout this article.