As draft season approaches, a plethora of debates will ensue over whether Player X is a value at his current ADP. By exploring a range of outcomes, rather than a median projection, we can decide how likely it is for players to meet or exceed their draft position, and quantify ceilings and floors for any player.
Assessing the likelihood of various end of season results allows fantasy owners to make a determination as to whether or not a player is worth a certain price, and if that player represents a safe pick, or a risky, high-upside investment.
Using the RotoViz Similarity Score App, MFL10 ADP, and some statistical analysis, I’ve formulated a model to determine various outcomes for specific players and decide if the player in question is likely to meet or exceed his draft slot.
This range of outcome analysis will remain beneficial for fantasy owners throughout draft season. While ADPs may change, most player’s ranges should more or less stay the same. Owners can take ADP at any point in time and compare it to the range of outcome projections to make conclusions about a player’s draft value.
We started off this series by looking at Antonio Brown’s most likely outcomes in 2014, and now we’ll take a look at some other wide receivers that are being drafted as low end WR1’s in PPR leagues.
Alshon Jeffery (ADP: WR7)
Range of Outcomes
|PPR FP/Rec||63.4 Receptions||74.0 Receptions||84.7 Receptions||95.3 Receptions||105.9 Receptions|
|3.3||208.8 (WR21)||243.8 (WR14)||278.8 (WR8)||313.9 (WR3)||348.9 (WR1)|
|2.9||181.9 (WR31)||212.4 (WR19)||243.0 (WR15)||273.5 (WR8)||304.0 (WR3)|
|2.5||155.0 (WR42)||181.1 (WR31)||207.1 (WR21)||233.1 (WR16)||259.1 (WR10)|
Not a promising outlook for Alshon. Even if we consider a top-12 finish a successful season for Jeffery, we’re looking at about a 60% bust rate, based on his comps and current ADP. Fellow Apex Insider, Mike Braude, has already explained why we should expect negative regression from Alshon Jeffery in 2014.
Randall Cobb (ADP: WR10)
Range of Outcomes
|PPR FP/Rec||54.5 Receptions||65.3 Receptions||76.1 Receptions||86.8 Receptions||97.6 Receptions|
|3.2||174.6 (WR33)||209.2 (WR21)||243.7 (WR13)||278.2 (WR7)||312.7 (WR3)|
|2.8||154.2 (WR43)||184.7 (WR29)||215.1 (WR19)||245.6 (WR14)||276.1 (WR8)|
|2.4||133.8 (WR54)||160.2 (WR39)||186.6 (WR29)||213.1 (WR20)||239.5 (WR16)|
Cobb is being drafted at basically the same price as his teammate, Jordy Nelson, who is Aaron Rodgers’ clear number one option. The Packers’ number two receiver has top-10 upside, but the numbers suggest that that upside comes with a fair amount of risk, risk that may be too pervasive for owners to invest an early round pick on him.
Keenan Allen (ADP: WR11)
Range of Outcomes
|PPR FP/Rec||51.3 Receptions||62.4 Receptions||73.5 Receptions||84.6 Receptions||95.7 Receptions|
|3.4||172.1 (WR33)||209.4 (WR21)||246.7 (WR14)||283.9 (WR7)||321.2 (WR3)|
|3.0||152.6 (WR43)||185.6 (WR29)||218.6 (WR18)||251.7 (WR13)||284.7 (WR7)|
|2.6||133.0 (WR54)||161.8 (WR38)||190.6 (WR27)||219.4 (WR17)||248.2 (WR14)|
Keenan Allen’s likely outcomes suggest that there is roughly a 60% chance to finish as a WR2 or better, but the upside needed to meet his WR1 draft value may not be there.
Allen is coming off of an impressive rookie campaign, causing his draft stock to soar in 2014. Last season, Allen was the only reliable wide receiver in San Diego. With a healthy Malcolm Floyd, the possible emergence of Ladarius Green, and an added emphasis on the run game, the opportunity may not be there for the San Diego receiver to jump into the elite ranks in his sophomore season.
What This Means For 2014
If you’re targeting a low end WR1 in your draft, this particular group of players may struggle to live up to expectations. I’ve already shown that Antonio Brown is a safer PPR option than Alshon, Cobb, or Allen. Other wide receivers, such as Jordy Nelson and Pierre Garcon, project much more favorably compared to their similar draft position, as well.