Hey there, fantasy football fanatics, Parker Olhiser again with another article to help you dominate your league-mates. In this piece, I will be covering players we can “buy low” and “sell high” in trades after collecting a three-week sample size. This significant sample size will allow us to make educated decisions on what to do with players that are either outperforming or under-performing their expectations for this season.
James Robinson – Jaguars RB
With the return of Devine Ozigbo and Ryquell Armstead, Robinson’s touches are going to be cut into. This was the original plan going into the season, to committee these three backs, and will probably shift back to that when all three are healthy.
Chris Thompson and Dare Ogunbowale are still the two pass-catching backs on the roster here who can take touches from Robinson in the passing game. DJ Chark was also out for the game against Miami resulting in the increase in passing volume for other players, especially Robinson (6 targets, 6 receptions, 83 receiving yards). Compared to Week 1 (1/1/28) and Week 2 (4/3/18), which will be more of the norm for Robinson.
To top all that off, their schedule gets much tougher following their Week 4 match up with the Bengals. Weeks 5-11 they play HOU twice, DET, LAC, PIT, GB, and a BYE. Jacksonville will most likely be behind during the majority of these games, resulting in a constant negative game script for their RBs.
With all of these factors stacked up against him, I am selling James Robinson for guys like DJ Moore or AJ Brown!
AJ Green – Bengals WR
Despite his low fantasy output in the first three weeks of the season, I still believe AJ Green is a “sell high” candidate right now. Joe Burrow has had 36, 61, and 44 pass attempts over the first three weeks of the season, displaying tremendous passing volume. Green has garnered 9, 13, and 6 targets in each week. And it’s AJ GREEN – so he still has name recognition in this league.
Now, the reasons we should be looking to move him are as follows. Even when given all these targets, he did not do much with them. Posting abysmal stat lines of 5/51, 3/29, and 5/36. Oh, and he had ZERO touchdowns. The majority of incompletions to Green were due to inaccuracy on Joe Burrows’s part, but Green also recorded two drops in each game so far this year.
Tyler Boyd has assumed the role as the WR1 here and seems to have a better connection with Burrow, posting stat lines of 7/72/1 (Week 2) and 10/125 (Week 3). Tee Higgins also had a breakout Week 3 with 5/40/2. With the emergence of these two talented wide receivers, there is less of a chance of Green dominating the target, reception, yardage, and touchdown shares in Cincinnati as he has in the past.
TY Hilton or Diontae Johnson are perfect trade targets for AJ Green owners.
Russell Wilson – Seahawks QB
Despite his record-setting numbers through the first three weeks, I believe Wilson is one of the strongest sell high candidates right now. Most of what he is doing is not sustainable.
Seattle still does not pass enough for him to keep up this pace. Wilson is 17th in the league in pass attempts with only 103. The only reason he has put up these numbers has been his high touchdown efficiency of 13.6 percent, scoring 14 touchdowns on those 103 attempts. The best touchdown efficiency he has had in his career for an entire season is 8.2 percent. More likely than not, Russ will regress here.
Wilson has not been producing on the ground as much as he has in the past either. Through three games he has recorded only 14 rushing attempts for 90 yards and 0 touchdowns. That equates to a sixteen game pace of 74 attempts for 480 yards and 0 touchdowns. Yes, this will make up for turnovers that will occasionally occur, but these are not significant enough of rushing numbers to really support being the QB1 in all of fantasy football.
And yes, I agree, they should “let Russ cook”, but that simply isn’t Brian Schottenheimer’s offensive scheme. In 2018 the Seahawks were second in the league in rushing attempts (534) and first in rushing yardage (2,560 yds). Again, in 2019, they were third in the NFL in rushing attempts (481) and fourth in rushing yardage (2,200 yds).
In both of those respective years, Seattle made the playoffs and had 10 wins or more. If something is not broken, it does not need fixing. The Seahawks offensive scheme is not broken and there is no reason for Schotty to “fix” it by overloading on the passing game when their run-heavy scheme has proven to work.
Now I’m not saying Russ isn’t amazing, he is, but the value you can get upon return when you trade him away right now is incredible. Right now fantasy managers are under the impression that he is going to have a record-breaking/league-winning season, and he may very well. But he will NOT be able to sustain this 75 touchdown pace for the season. No one has ever thrown more than 55 in a season (Peyton Manning 2013). So sell him to someone who thinks that Russ will maintain this level of play for their RB1 or WR1! Because THAT is the kind of return I believe you can get right now on Wilson. CEH. Jonathan Taylor. These are realistic trade targets for Russell Wilson owners, but they won’t be for long. Go get them!
JK Dobbins – Ravens RB
Dobbins is a “buy low” candidate for me because the only thing holding him back from being a low-end RB1/high-end RB2 is lack of volume. He has produced 76 yards and 2 touchdowns on only 10 rushing attempts along with 5 receptions for 51 yards in his first three weeks in the NFL. That’s 7.6 yards per carry (best among Ravens RBs) and 10.2 yards per reception.
Baltimore is one of the run heaviest teams in the league logging 30 and 37 rushing attempts in Weeks 1 and 2. Only rushing the ball 21 times in Week 3 because they were trailing KC pretty much the entire game. I do not expect this to be the norm. Baltimore is one of the top 5 teams in the league and will typically be ahead in the majority of their games, resulting in a regular positive game script for BAL RBs.
The Ravens also spent a second-round draft pick on Dobbins when they were already deep at RB and thin at other positions like WR or OL. This is a win-now team with an outstanding QB still on his rookie contract. They would not have made this move unless they really believed in the talent of Dobbins AND were going to give him the opportunity to use his talent to help them win a Super Bowl title this year.
Hunter Henry – Chargers TE
This man has quietly been one of the most consistent tight ends in the league. Henry has had at least 5 receptions and 50 yards in all three games this year, that’s a 10 point floor in PPR formats. Consistency like this is extremely hard to come by at the TE position.
Henry’s production was not affected by the QB change to Justin Herbert, but this offense will be better with a better QB at the helm. Improved QB play means more production and therefore more fantasy points for WRs on that team. Justin Herbert has proven the past two weeks that he is an improvement at the QB position for this team from Tyrod Taylor.
Henry also has not yet scored a touchdown this season but has still been averaging 12.2 PPR fantasy points per game. Once that touchdown production comes, Henry will have TE5 upside or better. Trade for him before this happens, while he is still cheap.
TY Hilton – Colts WR
With WRs Michael Pittman Jr. and Parris Campbell and TEs Jack Doyle and Trey Burton in the receiving core falling to injury, Hilton finds himself to be the only remaining starting pass-catcher on the roster. He will HAVE to step up.
He secretly has stepped back into that WR1 role already without blowing up in a fantasy sense. In one half of football this weekend (most of IND’s starters were pulled by the mid 3rd quarter), Hilton posted a 3 receptions and 52 yards stat line. This is also significant because they were in such a commanding lead, which is typically a terrible game script for receivers.
Given a full game against a competitive team, Hilton will have to post significant numbers if the Colts want to compete in those close games. Acquire him before he blows up in those close games, the Colts do not play the Jets every week.
Devin Singletary – Bills RB
Zack Moss has not turned out to be an effective backup to Singletary like he was drafted to be. Moss recorded a low 2.8 yards per carry on 8.5 carries per game through the first two weeks of the season. Singletary, on the other hand, averaged 4.5 yards per carry on 9.5 carries per game, in those same first two games. They were both given equal opportunity and the results speak for themselves.
Singletary is not just a better rusher, but also the better receiver. He’s been targeted 15 times through their first three contests and produced 11 receptions for 93 yards. While Moss only received four targets over the first two weeks, all of which came against the Jets in Week 1. This is not consistent involvement in the passing game and posting only three receptions for 14 yards will not earn him more volume to remedy this.
Not only do the numbers suggest Singletary is the better RB, but he also passes the eye test on film. He was constantly breaking tackles and giving second effort to gain extra yardage every play.
And now his coaches have seemed to have realized this as well, increasing his work load in Week 3 to 13 carries and 5 targets. You can argue that this was due to the absence of the injured Moss, but the Bills still had proven back TJ Yeldon to split carries with Singletary. They still chose to make Devin the lead back.
Also, with Josh Allen’s elevated play, this team has been averaging 31 points per game! In other words, there are plenty of touchdowns to go around in this offense moving forward.
Jump on Singletary BEFORE Moss returns from injury (should be Week 4). He has proven his ability and has won the RB1 job in Buffalo. Grab him now while he’s undervalued and people still believe Moss will eat into his workload.