This was not an article I ever intended on making, but sometimes the numbers can show us something we may have previously overlooked. After looking at some passing metrics it became clear to me that for fantasy football, Jared Goff is being discounted in comparison to his counterparts at the position.
Recency bias affects all of us in fantasy football and it’s important to sometimes take a step back when evaluating players. There are some players who have had a history of high-level performance, but due to a down year, they get discounted. 2017 was a prime example of how the 2016 seasons of Todd Gurley and DeAndre Hopkins left them at massive values en route to becoming league winners. It was clear that their one bad season was an outlier instead of a trend and owners who took advantage capitalized.
Jared Goff is a fantasy football player who the market may be a little too harsh on considering his impressive resume through four seasons in the league.
Let’s dig in.
Jared Goff’s Resume
Jared Goff has been among the better QBs in the NFL since his 2nd year breakout.
Here’s how he ranks amongst all QBs over the past three seasons:
- 3rd in passing yards
- 4th in passing attempts
- 5th in TDs
- 6th in PPR points
- 8th in AY/A
It’s clear that with the help of Sean McVay, Jared Goff has been one of the better passing QBs in the league. He is in a high volume passing offense, but he combines that with impressive efficiency.
Goff has also finished as the QB13 or better in each of the last three seasons.
According to Jordan McNamara‘s book the “Analytics of Dynasty”, QBs who have a top 12 finish in their first three seasons in the league have a much higher success rate in the future than those who don’t. Considering Goff’s early career success, it would be safe to say that his role in the NFL is stable for the foreseeable future.
What Happened Last Year To Jared Goff And The Rams?
Let’s see how Goff’s 2019 season compared to his 2017 and 2018 seasons.
Last year we saw Goff see a spike in volume, but a decrease in efficiency. This decrease in efficiency was likely due to his low touchdown rate of 3.5 percent. The league average for 2019 was 4.5 percent. We know touchdowns are rather fluky year-to-year and it’s likely he’ll have positive regression towards the league average in 2020.
What was encouraging about Goff’s 2019 season was the pure volume in which he threw the ball. He tied for the league lead in pass attempts last season and looks poised to be one of the higher volume passers in the league again.
His 2019 season was a down year in the interception and efficiency department, but based on his career averages it seems to be more of an outlier.
Is Jared Goff Early Career Matt Ryan?
Matt Ryan has been one of the better quarterbacks in NFL history up to this point in his career.
Here is all QBs in NFL history through 12 seasons.
|Brett Favre *||177||5992||60.95||42285||314||188||6.69||238.9|
|Johnny Unitas *||153||4097||55.19||33021||252||189||7.21||215.8|
Matt Ryan ranks:
- 1st in attempts
- 1st in passing yards
- 2nd in passing yards per game
- 4th in passing TDs
- 10th in AY/A
It’s a very impressive career for Matt Ryan as he compares favorably to the best quarterbacks to ever play the game. We should note that the NFL has become more pass-heavy and efficient over the past decade, but it’s outstanding regardless.
Knowing that Matt Ryan has quietly been one of the most productive quarterbacks in NFL history up to this point in his career, what does this mean for Jared Goff?
Here is how Goff compares to Ryan through their first four NFL seasons.
Here’s how they compare on a per-game basis during their first four seasons.
It’s clear that Goff compares favorably to Matt Ryan in his early career. Knowing this, it shows Goff’s career arc is on the path to becoming one of the better passing quarterbacks in the league.
In fantasy football, Jared Goff is the “boring” quarterback that owners don’t want to draft. He doesn’t offer much on the ground, which limits his ceiling, but his floor is rather high. We want to be targeting good QBs in high volume passing offenses with good weapons around them, such as fellow undervalued fantasy asset Robert Woods. Goff checks all those boxes.
Goff is currently being drafted as the QB18 in dynasty leagues according to Apex’s ADP. Goff’s best ball ADP of QB16 also makes him a value.
Goff is a value in both formats, but it’s clear he is a very strong dynasty buy as he profiles as someone who will be a good starting QB in the league for the foreseeable future.
Big thanks to always fantastic Pro Football Reference for the data that allowed this article to be possible.
If you aren’t following me on Twitter already, you can do so on the link below.
Also, be sure to check out our new Apex podcast. I will be joined by Apex co-founders Mike Braude and Asher Molk in which we will work to give you an analytical approach and actionable research for your fantasy drafts this year.