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For years, betting on a rookie wide receiver to break out was a losing proposition in fantasy football. Stepping into the NFL and immediately leading a team in receiving is hard. But over the past decade — and especially the past five seasons — rookie breakouts have become routine. Odell Beckham Jr., A.J. Brown, Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, Puka Nacua, Brian Thomas, Malik Nabers, and Ladd McConkey have all stormed the league as first-year pros.

So what do rookie-year breakouts have in common, and what does that tell us about the 2026 class? Let’s dig in.

Defining a Rookie Breakout

To identify meaningful rookie breakouts, the primary threshold is 200 PPR points. To avoid penalizing strong rookies who missed time, the list also includes players who scored at least 180 PPR points and averaged more than 13 PPR points per game. This captures the exact players we’re trying to find — high-end producers who flashed immediately, even in fewer than 16 games.

The sample spans every rookie wide receiver since 2011, yielding 32 total players. The most recent addition is Tetairoa McMillan, who cleared the bar in his 2025 rookie season.

Rookie WR Breakouts Since 2011

Player	Season	Age	Team	G	PPR	PPR/G
Ja'Marr Chase	2021	21	CIN	17	304.6	17.92
Puka Nacua	2023	22	LAR	17	298.5	17.56
Odell Beckham Jr.	2014	22	NYG	12	295	24.58
Brian Thomas	2024	22	JAX	17	284	16.71
Justin Jefferson	2020	21	MIN	16	274.2	17.14
Malik Nabers	2024	21	NYG	15	273.6	18.24
Michael Thomas	2016	23	NOR	15	255.7	17.05
Jaylen Waddle	2021	23	MIA	16	245.8	15.36
Mike Evans	2014	21	TAM	15	245.1	16.34
Ladd McConkey	2024	23	LAC	16	240.9	15.06
Amon-Ra St. Brown	2021	22	DET	17	227.3	13.37
Kelvin Benjamin	2014	23	CAR	16	225.8	14.11
Jordan Addison	2023	21	MIN	17	221.3	13.02
Keenan Allen	2013	21	SDG	15	219.6	14.64
A.J. Green	2011	23	CIN	15	218	14.53
CeeDee Lamb	2020	21	DAL	16	217.7	13.61
Jayden Reed	2023	23	GNB	16	217.2	13.58
A.J. Brown	2019	22	TEN	16	217.1	13.57
Tyreek Hill	2016	22	KAN	16	217	13.56
Garrett Wilson	2022	22	NYJ	17	215.7	12.69
Chase Claypool	2020	22	PIT	16	214.9	13.43
Amari Cooper	2015	21	OAK	16	212.7	13.29
Rashee Rice	2023	23	KAN	16	212.5	13.28
Tetairoa McMillan	2025	22	CAR	17	211.4	12.44
Calvin Ridley	2018	24	ATL	16	206.8	12.93
Zay Flowers	2023	23	BAL	16	206.4	12.9
Jordan Matthews	2014	22	PHI	16	202.2	12.64
Julio Jones	2011	22	ATL	13	201.5	15.5
Chris Olave	2022	22	NOR	15	198.2	13.21
JuJu Smith-Schuster	2017	21	PIT	14	197.7	14.12
Terry McLaurin	2019	24	WAS	14	191.9	13.71
Brandon Aiyuk	2020	22	SFO	12	184.5	15.38

Now let’s look at their prospect profiles and see what patterns emerge.

Prospect Profiles of the 32 Breakouts

Columns: Age (rookie year age) · Pick (overall) · WT (lbs) · pDOM (peak college dominator) · BOA (breakout age) · pYPTA (peak yards per team attempt) · ED (early declare)

Player	Age	Pick	WT	pDOM	BOA	pYPTA	ED?
Amari Cooper	21	4	210	0.472	18.2	3.84	Y
A.J. Green	23	4	210	0.422	20.1	3.41	Y
Ja'Marr Chase	21	5	200	0.334	19.5	3.33	Y
Jaylen Waddle	23	6	182	0.26	21.8	3.5	Y
Julio Jones	22	6	220	0.344	19.6	3.13	Y
Malik Nabers	21	6	200	0.337	19.1	3.82	Y
Mike Evans	21	7	231	0.302	19	2.85	Y
Tetairoa McMillan	22	8	219	0.444	19.4	3.02	Y
Garrett Wilson	22	10	193	0.31	20.1	3.21	Y
Chris Olave	22	11	188	0.318	19.2	3.68	N
Odell Beckham Jr.	22	12	198	0.345	19.8	3.53	Y
CeeDee Lamb	21	17	198	0.381	19.4	3.93	Y
Justin Jefferson	21	22	202	0.3	19.6	2.72	Y
Zay Flowers	23	22	182	0.467	20	2.47	N
Jordan Addison	21	23	175	0.299	18.6	2.92	Y
Brian Thomas	22	23	209	0.327	20.9	2.86	Y
Brandon Aiyuk	22	25	200	0.406	21.5	3.36	N
Calvin Ridley	24	26	190	0.301	20.7	2.9	Y
Kelvin Benjamin	23	28	245	0.293	22.6	2.29	Y
Ladd McConkey	23	34	186	0.178	-	1.85	Y
Jordan Matthews	22	42	215	0.483	18.1	3.93	N
Michael Thomas	23	47	212	0.396	21.5	2.4	Y
Chase Claypool	22	49	238	0.334	21.2	2.49	N
Jayden Reed	23	50	187	0.357	18.4	2.56	N
A.J. Brown	22	51	226	0.326	20.2	3.21	Y
Rashee Rice	23	55	203	0.329	20.4	2.85	N
JuJu Smith-Schuster	21	62	215	0.319	18.8	3.15	Y
Keenan Allen	21	76	211	0.495	18.4	3.05	Y
Terry McLaurin	24	76	210	0.177	-	1.42	N
Amon Ra St. Brown	22	112	197	0.331	18.9	2.03	Y
Tyreek Hill	22	165	185	0.194	-	0.75	Y
Puka Nacua	22	177	205	0.274	18.3	2.31	N

Averages Across the Sample

Age	Pick	WT	pDOM	BOA	pYPTA	ED
22.09	39.41	204.44	.339	19.77	2.9	71.9%

The composite profile of a rookie breakout: 22.1 years old, drafted 39th overall, 204 lbs, with a 33.9% peak college dominator and a college breakout age of 19.8. Roughly 72% of breakouts forewent their senior year to enter the draft early.

Worth noting: wide receiver weights continue to trend downward across the position, which Asher has written about in the context of adjusting prospect weight thresholds. The 204-lb average above is partly a reflection of an evolving position, not a fixed minimum.

Draft Capital Still Matters

Round	Total	Percent
1	19	59.4%
2	8	25%
3	2	6.3%
4	1	3.1%
5	2	6.3%
6	0	0.0%
7	0	0.0%

• First-round picks made up the majority of breakouts (59%).

• 84% of the group were selected in Rounds 1 or 2.

• Only five breakout came after Round 2, with only two from Round 3.

• Zero rookies selected after Round 5 have broken out in the past 14 years, with Puka Nacua becoming just the second and most recent 5th-rounder to do so.

The takeaway is simple: rookie breakouts are overwhelmingly tied to early draft capital. If you’re betting on a Day 3 pick to immediately produce as a fantasy WR1, you’re fading the history of the position.

Age Matters

Age	Total	Percent
21	9	28.1%
22	13	40.6%
23	8	25%
24	2	6.3%

• 94% of breakouts were age 23 or younger in their rookie season.

• Most were 21 or 22.

• Breakouts at age 24 are exceptionally rare (just Calvin Ridley and Terry McLaurin).

College Breakout Age

Breakout Age	Total	Percent
Under 20.5	22	68.8%
Over 20.5	10	31.2%

• 17 of 32 breakouts (56.3%) broke out before turning 20.
• 22 of 32 (68.8%) broke out before 20.5.

Breaking out early in college is one of the cleaner signals in the dataset, and the earlier the better.

Dominator Rating

Dominator Rating	Total	Percent
.40+	7	21.9%
.30-.39.9	18	56.3%
.25-.29.9	4	12.5%
Under .25	3	9.4%

78% of breakouts posted a peak college dominator rating (the combined percentage of a team’s receiving touchdowns and yards by a receiver) above 30%. Players below that line can still hit, but they’re the exceptions, not the rule.

Yards Per Team Attempt

YPTA	Total	Percent
3.5+	7	21.9%
3-3.49	9	28.1%
2.5-2.99	7	21.9%
2-2.49	6	18.8%
Under 2	3	9.4%

72% of breakouts cleared 2.5 yards per team pass attempt in their best college season. Only three fell below 2.0 — Terry McLaurin, Ladd McConkey, and Tyreek Hill — and each is a clear outlier in the dataset.

2026 Rookie Wide Receiver Breakout Candidates

The historical profile of a rookie breakout points to six green flags worth stacking:

• Drafted in the top two rounds

• Age 22 or younger

• Early declare

• Peak college dominator above 30%

• College breakout age under 20.5

• Peak yards per team attempts above 2.5

Here’s how the 2026 WRs selected in the top two rounds stack up:

Player	Age	Pick	WT	pDOM	BOA	pYPTA	ED
Carnell Tate	21.4	4	192	32.2	20.6	2.74	Y
Jordyn Tyson	21.8	8	203	46.8	18.1	3.48	Y
Makai Lemon	22	20	192	39.2	21.3	2.96	Y
KC Concepcion	21.7	24	196	36.9	18.9	2.25	Y
Omar Cooper Jr	22.5	30	199	26.4	21.7	2.51	Y
De'Zhaun Stribling	23.4	33	207	24.2	19.7	2.12	N
Denzel Boston	22.5	39	212	37.9	20.8	2.75	N
Germie Bernard	22.5	47	206	23.4	21.8	2.24	N

This isn’t a class where any one prospect cleanly checks every box, but there are real signals to work with. A quick line on each:

• Carnell Tate — Top draft capital and a 30%+ dominator, but broke out late.

• Jordyn Tyson — The most complete profile in the class; the asterisk is his college injury history.

• Makai Lemon — Checks most boxes, but broke out late and his fit with Jalen Hurts is questionable even if A.J. Brown is moved.

• KC Concepcion — The most interesting remaining candidate, but a rookie breakout is shaky with Deshaun Watson or Shedeur Sanders under center.

• Omar Cooper Jr. — Broke out late without high-end production.

• De’Zhaun Stribling — Handpicked by Kyle Shanahan, but a low producer over five college seasons and a 24-year-old rookie.

• Denzel Boston — Barely played in his first two college seasons and enters with the same quarterback issues as Concepcion.

• Germie Bernard — A late breakout without much production, landing behind Michael Pittman and DK Metcalf.

2025 Rookie Wide Receiver Breakout Candidates

Player	Age	Pick	WT	pDOM	BOA	pYPTA	ED
Travis Hunter	22.1	2	188	0.388	19.4	2.62	Y
Tetairoa McMillan	22.1	8	219	0.444	19.4	3.02	Y
Emeka Egbuka	22.6	19	202	0.261	19.9	2.81	N
Matthew Golden	21.8	23	191	0.241	20.1	1.82	Y
Jayden Higgins	22.4	34	214	0.372	19.7	2.71	Y
Luther Burden III	21.4	39	206	0.365	18.7	3.2	Y
Tre Harris	23.2	55	205	0.358	20.5	3.78	N
Jack Bech	22.4	58	214	0.306	21.7	2.28	N
Kyle Williams	22.9	69	190	0.19	19.1	2.99	N
Isaac TeSlaa	23	70	214	0.424	19.3	1.65	N
Pat Bryant	22.5	74	204	0.44	20.7	2.95	N
Jaylin Noel	22.7	79	194	0.327	21	2.53	N
Savion Williams	23.5	87	222	0.193	-	1.35	N

Only Travis Hunter and Tetairoa McMillan check every single box. Both are elite prospects capable of making an immediate impact.

The rest of this class represents a step down:

• Emeka Egbuka: Not an early declare and never topped a 26% dominator rating. While he faced stiff competition at Ohio State, his rookie outlook is murky, especially considering his landing spot.

• Matthew Golden: Lacks dominant production in college. His low dominator and YPTA raise red flags for breakout potential.

• Jayden Higgins and Luther Burden: Both are early declares with strong college production and could follow the mold of Round 2 breakouts.

• Tre Harris, Kyle Williams, and Pat Bryant are interesting prospects, but their older rookie age isn’t ideal.

• Red Flags: Jack Bech‘s one-year wonder status and late breakout. Isaac TeSlaa lack of dominance against legitimate competition.

For full player breakdowns and deeper scouting reports, check out my earlier article covering 13 Rookie Wide Receivers to Know for 2025.

2024 Rookie Wide Receiver Breakout Candidates

Player	Age	Pick	WT	pDOM	BOA	pYPTA	ED
Marvin Harrison Jr.	21.8	4	205	0.479	20.1	3.22	Y
Malik Nabers	20.9	6	200	0.337	19.1	3.82	Y
Rome Odunze	22	9	212	0.264	19.3	2.85	N
Brian Thomas Jr.	21.7	23	209	0.327	20.9	2.86	Y
Xavier Worthy	21.1	28	165	0.307	18.4	2.88	Y
Ricky Pearsall	23.7	31	189	0.268	21	2.49	N
Xavier Legette	23.4	32	221	0.355	22.6	3.05	N
Keon Coleman	21.1	33	213	0.396	19.3	1.94	Y
Ladd McConkey	22.6	34	186	0.178	-	1.85	Y
Ja'Lynn Polk	22.2	37	203	0.246	21.4	2.25	N
Adonai Mitchell	21.7	52	205	0.324	20.9	1.78	Y
Malachi Corley	22.2	65	215	0.319	20.5	2.08	N
Jermaine Burton	22.9	80	196	0.354	22.2	2.78	N
Roman Wilson	23	84	185	0.4	22.2	2.24	N
Jalen McMillan	22.5	92	197	0.227	19.7	1.96	N
Luke McCaffrey	23.2	100	198	0.395	21.4	2.33	N

Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers check every box. Both should be expected to make this list next season and are being drafted in both rookie drafts and one-year leagues accordingly.

Rome Odunze comes in just below them. He’s not an early declare nor did his dominator rating pop (this can be at least partially explained by competing for targets with Ja’Lynn Polk and Jalen McMillan at Washington, who both were drafted in the top three rounds), but he should be a very good NFL player. He’ll be competing with D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen for targets as a rookie.

Although he’s 165 lbs., Xavier Worthy is a fun prospect. He has the earliest breakout age on this list and is paired with the world’s best quarterback.

Despite being a first-round pick, Ricky Pearsall is older, lighter, and doesn’t come with the production thresholds that we like to see. Plus, he likely won’t see a big workload with Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle demanding targets.

Ladd McConkey is expected to be heavily involved with the Chargers, but he never broke out in college. He wouldn’t be the first player to break the mold, and there are plenty of available targets to go around in Los Angeles, but the odds are stacked against him.

For more in-depth profiles on the rookie wide receivers, check out my previous article summarizing each player’s profile.

2023 Rookie Wide Receiver Breakout Candidates

Player	Age	Pick	WT	pDOM	BOA	pYPTA	ED
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	21.4	20	196	0.26	19.6	3.25	Y
Quentin Johnston	21.8	21	208	0.39	19	2.94	Y
Zay Flowers	22.8	22	182	0.47	20	2.47	N
Jordan Addison	21.4	23	173	0.36	18.6	2.92	Y
Jonathan Mingo	22.2	39	226	0.28	20.4	2.35	N
Jayden Reed	23.2	50	191	0.34	18.4	2.56	N
Rashee Rice	23.2	55	200	0.32	20.4	2.85	N
Marvin Mims	21.3	63	183	0.27	18.5	2.66	Y
Nathaniel Dell	23.7	69	165	0.38	20.9	2.79	Y
Jalin Hyatt	21.8	73	176	0.37	20.9	3.22	Y
Cedric Tillman	23.2	74	213	0.37	21.4	3.18	N
Josh Downs	21.9	79	171	0.34	19.1	3.51	Y
Michael Wilson	23.4	94	216	0.3	19.5	2.07	N

Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s yards per team attempt is excellent, and when you consider he did it with Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave on his team, he looks even better. The context of JSN’s production makes him look like he’ll be on this list next year.

Quentin Johnston also looks excellent in terms of his breakout age, peak dominator rating, yards per team attempt, and more. We’ve spilled a lot of ink about why we think he’s destined for a big year.

Zay Flowers is a fun player with some huge dominator ratings. His lack of an early declaration, when combined with his slight frame and low yards per team attempt, is concerning. If he were to break out, Flowers would slide into 19th place among hits in terms of YPTA.

Jordan Addison hits many of the thresholds, but his weight is a bit concerning. If he were to break out as a rookie, he would be the lightest player ever to do so. However, wide receivers continue to trend lighter.

Jonathan Mingo is the freakiest receiver in the class but remains a bit of a project. The fact that he only topped 1.66 YPTA as a senior is alarming for his odds of being NFL-ready. While I wouldn’t bet on it, Chase Claypool did hit in a very similar scenario.

Jayden Reed has some interesting production but will enter the NFL as a 23-year-old rookie, who did not declare early for the NFL.

Like Mingo, Rashee Rice took time to develop at the collegiate level, finally topping 1.83 YPTA as a senior. He’ll enter the NFL as a 23-year-old rookie.

A lighter receiver, Marvin Mims checks a lot of the boxes we look for. He broke out early and while he didn’t have any dominant college seasons, looks like a solid player.

Nathaniel Dell, Cedric Tillman, and Michael Wilson will all enter the league at 23 years old. The lack of consistent production as younger collegiate players is concerning for their odds of NFL success.

Jalin Hyatt and Josh Downs are intriguing players. Both are lighter than any previous breakout but had solid peak dominator rating seasons and YPTA.

2022 Rookie Wide Receiver Breakout Candidates

Last year when I wrote this article, it was clear that Ja’Marr Chase was the type of player capable of a massive rookie wide receiver breakout. Scoring the most points of the rookie wide receivers included in this study, he certainly did not disappoint. Here are the 2022 wide receivers capable of making a big impact:

Player	Age	Pick	WT	DOM	BOA
Drake London	20.9	8	210	34.9%	18.1
Garrett Wilson	21.9	10	193	31%	20.1
Chris Olave	21.9	11	188	31.8%	19.2
Jameson Williams	21.2	12	189	31.1%	20.4
Jahan Dotson	22.2	16	183	44.3%	20.5
Treylon Burks	22.2	18	232	45.9%	20.5
Christian Watson	23.1	34	211	44%	20.3
Wan'Dale Robinson	21.4	43	185	37.3%	18.7
John Metchie III	21.9	44	195	22.6%	21.1
Tyquan Thornton	22.8	50	183	37.5%	20.1
George Pickens	21.3	52	200	30%	18.5
Alec Pierce	22.1	53	213	25.2%	19.3
Skyy Moore	21.7	54	195	44.8%	20
David Bell	21.5	99	205	35.1%	18.7

Drake London looks like an excellent bet. He didn’t dominate in college quite like Chase – but his weight, age, draft position, dominator rating, and breakout age look fantastic when compared to the past rookie wide receiver breakouts.

Garrett Wilson is a potentially special player who played with excellent players on his team, leading to a lower target share. He’s lighter than 85.2% of the hits – however, Waddle who is lighter than Wilson was a hit last season at just 182 lbs. As Asher Molk has noted, wide receivers are getting lighter.

Olave is very similar to Wilson but, even lighter still. He’ll compete with Jarvis Landry and Michael Thomas (if Thomas can get healthy). At 188 lbs., weight concerns won’t go away – but he’s a high pick that checks many boxes necessary to break out as a rookie.

Jameson Williams snuck his breakout age in at 20.5 years old and checked all the other boxes. Being such a high selection gives him a chance to make an immediate impact – however, recovery from an ACL tear makes Williams unlikely to score 200+ PPR points as a rookie.

Jahan Dotson broke out at 20.5 years old – right on the breakout age cusp. In addition, he’s only 183 lbs. With Carson Wentz at the helm, it’ll be tough for Dotson to make an immediate splash.

Labeled as the A.J. Brown replacement, Treylon Burks should make an immediate impact. He’ll need to be on the field, which hasn’t been the case early in training camp with Burks dealing with breathing issues. From a skeleton key standpoint, Burks barely notches the breakout age and checks all the other boxes with flying colors.

Christian Watson and Tyquan Thornton will play their rookie years at 23 years old, which isn’t ideal but older rookies have had some success in the past. For them, the bigger concerns are being non-early declares and a lack of dominance in college.

Wan’Dale Robinson checks a lot of boxes despite being only 185 lbs. He’s an intriguing player that will deal with a crowded receiver room that struggled to stay healthy last season.

Skyy Moore is also a player that checks nearly every box. He’s a little light at 195 lbs. but excelled in terms of production. He’ll enter a wide-open wide receiver room with arguably the league’s best quarterback.

While his final year was a disappointment, George Pickens fits every threshold of the hits. Playing with a rookie quarterback is far from ideal, but Pickens may be underrated in fantasy football circles.

Another underrated name is David Bell. A poor combine led to Bell being selected outside of the top two rounds, but that’s the only box Bell didn’t check. A college producer who isn’t the most athletic, leading to a draft-day slide, Bell looks like Keenan Allen and Jarvis Landry. Both Allen and Landry were heavily involved as rookies.

John Metchie and Alec Pierce lack the 30% dominator rating in their top collegiate season that we’d like to see.

2021 Rookie Wide Receiver Breakout Candidates

We now know that generally breakouts are about 22, are selected in Round 1 or 2, weigh 210 lbs., dominate about 35 percent of their team’s passing production, and have a college breakout before turning 20. What does this mean for the 2021 rookie class?

Player	Tm	Age	Pick	WT	DOM	BOA
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN	21.4	5	201	0.334	19.5
Rashod Bateman	BAL	21.6	27	190	0.4	18.8
Elijah Moore	NYJ	21.2	34	178	0.367	19.4
DeVonta Smith	PHI	22.6	10	170	0.513	20.8
Terrace Marshall Jr.	CAR	21.1	59	205	0.334	19.2
Jaylen Waddle	MIA	22.6	6	180	0.197	21.8
Rondale Moore	AZ	21.1	49	181	0.256	18.2
Kadarius Toney	NYG	22.4	20	193	0.237	21.6
D'Wayne Eskridge	SEA	24.3	56	190	0.446	20.5
Tutu Atwell	LAR	21.8	57	155	0.367	18.9

Let’s start at the top with Ja’Marr Chase, one of the best rookie wide receiver prospects to enter the league. He was selected fifth overall, weighing in a touch light at 201 lbs. For an uber-athletic receiver, that’s likely nothing to worry about. Despite not playing last season, Chase still had a 33.4 percent dominator rating and broke out at 19.5 years old.

There’s really nothing in Chase’s profile not to like. Seeing that he outproduced teammate Justin Jefferson while being a year younger, and Jefferson had one of the best rookie seasons ever, it really wouldn’t be surprising to see Chase play like a star as a rookie.

Selected 27th overall by the Ravens, Rashod Bateman checks nearly every box. It would’ve been nice to see him weigh in at more than 190 lbs., but we all know about how he was a little light due to recovering from COVID. Still 21 years old, Bateman topped the average dominator rating of a rookie breakout by hitting an impressive 40 percent dominator rating. He also broke out at 18.8.

The Ravens situation likely isn’t favorable for a rookie wide receiver to thrive – but Bateman may be the type of player necessary for the Ravens to shift their offense. The draft capital they used on him certainly makes that a possibility.

Elijah Moore is one of the more exciting bets for a rookie breakout. Moore produced as a true freshman alongside A.J. Brown and D.K. Metcalf before dominating over his final two seasons – hitting a 36.7 percent dominator rating. Moore broke out at 19.4 and his 178-lb. frame remains the only negative in his profile.

Moore’s size is balanced by stunning speed and agility – he has the athleticism to succeed in spite of his weight. The Athletic’s Connor Hughes believed that Moore was “the most impressive player at OTAs and it’s not really close.” There has been no shortage of praise for the rookie.

Selected 10th overall, many would argue that Devonta Smith is the most NFL-ready receiver in the draft. Currently 22.6 years old, Smith shares the same concern about weight as many in this class. His 51.3 percent dominator rating is mouthwatering while his breakout age of 20.8 leaves a little to be desired.

A polished route runner, Smith looks similar to Calvin Ridley, who scored 206.8 PPR points as out as a 24-year-old rookie. One could argue that Smith is the favorite to lead the Eagles in targets.

At 205 lbs., Terrace Marshall is one of the heavier receivers in this class. While his dominator rating is a touch low compared to the prior breakouts at 33.4 percent, Marshall broke out at an excellent 19.2 years old. A very talented player, Marshall is a dark horse to have an immediate impact.

Selected sixth overall, Jaylen Waddle is undoubtedly a potentially game-breaking player. Unfortunately, his dominator rating of 19.7 percent and breakout age of 21.8 leaves much to be desired. Regardless, players like Tyreek Hill and Terry McLaurin have come in with similar production and succeeded because of special athletic traits. Waddle is certainly a player that fits that mold and the Dolphins’ significant investment in him is evidence of their belief in his abilities.

After one of the best statistical freshman seasons ever, Rondale Moore struggled to stay healthy in his final two seasons of college. Therefore, his dominator rating of 25.6 percent doesn’t hit the mark we’re looking for. However, his breakout age is one of the best ever and we’ve seen that he can produce at a high level. Like Waddle, Moore has no shortage of unique athletic traits and appears to be an excellent fit for the Cardinals.

Despite being high draft capital selections, Kadarius Toney, D’Wayne Eskridge, and Tutu Atwell appear unlikely to be notable rookie contributors. Toney has special athletic attributes in his favor but only broke out at 21.6 years old with just a 23.7 percent dominator rating. If he can’t produce at a high level in college, it’s troubling to expect him to do so in the NFL.

Eskridge is already 24.3 which immediately puts him in a difficult position from an age perspective. His fifth-year dominator rating was excellent but took place when he was significantly older than the competition.

Atwell checks both production boxes for dominator rating and breakout age. The problem is he’s 55.6 lbs. lighter than the average breakout. Even the lightest player on our rookie breakout list, Eddie Royal, was 27 lbs. heavier than Atwell. If Atwell hits, he’d be the first player 175 lbs. or lighter to do so in NFL history.